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One of the most striking findings in the Australian National Universitys Australian Election Study the survey of voters the university has undertaken after every federal election since 1987 are the results on satisfaction with democracy.

The survey tells us that back in 2007, Australians were sanguine. Kevin Rudd had won the federal election, and politics was hovering on the brink of a decade of profound disruption. At the tail end of the revolving door of prime ministers, and the failure of our parliament to achieve a durable consensus on important issues like climate change, only 59% of us are satisfied with democracy, and trust has reached its lowest level on record, with just 25% believing people in government can be trusted.

Loss of faith, given the experience post-2007, is to be expected. But the striking bit for me in the latest AES was the rate of decline in satisfaction with democracy. The faceplant in Australia has been steeper than the experience in the United Kingdom after the 2016 Brexit referendum and in the United States following Donald Trumps 2016 election win. Just roll that small insight around in your head for a minute. Politics in the US and the UK has completely jumped the shark yet our citizens are hitting the screw-this button faster than the citizens of America and Britain.

Assuming this insight is correct, thats really quite something. It tallies with the despair I encounter among the community of politically engaged people on social media, day in and day out, heaving and crashing. My inbox is studded with it. Progressives, engaged folks, are clearly angry, frustrated, thwarted.

Some of this roiling is currently trained in Labors direction. Anthony Albanese has copped a hiding on social media and elsewhere this week for visiting coal communities during the bushfires the visit seen as a portent of capitulation by Labor on climate policy. I want to work through the points Im going to make about this reaction, step by step, just so we are clear.

This first thing to say is Im minutely interested in where Labor ultimately ends up on climate policy. If Labor does ultimately capitulate on climate action, producing an execrable policy for the next federal election, then I will be the first one lining up with the rhetorical baseball bat. I will be taking no prisoners.

But rather than fly off in a rage because Albanese went to Emerald, or looked sideways at a coalminer while Sydney choked in smoke, right now Im content to wait and watch. Im content to wait and watch not because Im a naturally patient person, or a trusting person, or a generous person, but because Im a student of history.

Its worth laying out the recent history just so its clear, because right now the debate feels a bit untethered, and things that can be known and proved (as opposed to being speculated about) are a bit obscured in the thicket of fail hashtags.

History tells us that Labor has made mistakes on climate policy, significant errors of hubris, fear and poor judgment that have set back the cause of progress.

But history also tells us this political party shows up on climate action. It is the only party of government in Australia that does, election cycle after election cycle. That basic fact seems a bit lost in the wash in some of the current emoting and hectoring.

The other lesson of history that may not be obvious is this. Labor has lost two elections on climate change 2013 and 2019.

Climate change wasnt the only negative factor in these contests. Labor lost predominantly in 2013 because it was more interested in conducting a civil war at taxpayer expense than serving Australian voters, but Labor also lost because Tony Abbott was successful in weaponising climate change. It was diabolical, what Abbott did, but it was a precision, partisan, demolition.

A backlash against climate action in regional Queensland was also part of the story of Labors election loss in May. I dont think a lot of progressive people have really grasped this basic fact, because they prefer to think climate change switched votes Labors way in 2019, because thats a more comforting story.

I cant fathom, given what the science says, why climate change goes on being Australias Brexit.

Now its true, climate change did help shore up Labors left flank against the Greens, and pushed a number of swing votes Labors way in 2019. But its important to look where those positive swings happened, and they were largely in seats Labor had no prospect of winning.

Any political party will happily bank any positive swing. Its gratifying. It suggests the dial is moving. But obviously it is better if the swings deliver you government rather than just a warm inner glow, and abstract validation.

So what Im trying to convey this weekend is Labor has paid a price electorally for pursuing climate action.

I dont high five this fact. I dont find it comforting. I cant fathom, given what the science says, given the clear evidence that warming is under way, why there is even a debate in this country about what needs to happen, why climate change goes on being Australias Brexit.

But there is a debate, pushed by corporates with vested interests, and culture warriors intent on routing progressivism, whatever the cost; and materialist anxiety is stoked assiduously by poisonous agitprop rags like the Daily Telegraph, and other alleged news outlets in the Murdoch stable that act like sheep dogs rounding up thought criminals, fully resolved to let no good deed go unpunished.

I thought after the defeat in May we would see ignominious surrender from the ALP. I fully expected that to happen, not because its right, but because retreat is not irrational in terms of the electoral calculation.

But the only person Ive heard in Labor saying we need to lower the level of ambition is Joel Fitzgibbon, who got the fright of his life after suffering a huge negative swing in his coal community in the Hunter Valley, and has now embarked on a coal worshipping tour of the country as an act of contrition.

Mark Butler isnt saying lower ambition. Albanese isnt saying it. Penny Wong isnt saying it. Senior New South Wales rightwingers, such as Tony Burke and Chris Bowen, are saying we need to maintain ambition consistent with the science and find a way to do that while reassuring our blue-collar base. Burke and Bowen have floated the New Green Deal, or something like it, as a mechanism that might square the circle.

Maybe Labor will, ultimately, surrender. Its certainly possible. But whats happening now isnt surrender its an attempt to stitch climate action and blue-collar jobs together. Its an attempt to craft a nuance.

Now some progressive people will argue thats impossible, so dont even bother; Labor should just draw a line now and say we are for climate action, no compromises, no redux on the messaging. If you dont like it, vote for someone else.

Thats fine, as long as the people making these arguments understand a couple of basic things.

Labor cant win an election by saying that. Not on current indications.

Perhaps that could change in time, because public sentiment will shift as the evidence and experience of warming grows. The community is clearly mobilising. But right now, Australians are telling pollsters they are increasingly worried about climate change, but a majority is not voting in favour of climate action when push comes to shove. The country remains divided, and rancorously so. Thats the legacy of our busted arse politics, and our busted arse media conversation.

While ever that remains the case, Labor will have to hold its progressive post-material constituency and hold its traditional base, or enough of it to win enough seats to form a government.

If its either/or, Labor loses.

So lets be precise about what that means. It means the only party of government in Australia that is halfway serious about climate action, the only party with the capacity to deliver tangible action, remains out of power, unable to move the dial.

This is less of a problem obviously if the Liberal party can enjoy a Damascene conversion. I remain hopeful that it might happen. But theres not much evidence of that happening currently.

These are just facts. These might be irritating facts, facts disruptive to the flow of feelings, but they are facts.

Lets loop back to despair, which is where we started this weekend. I get despair. I understand why people who care about the fate of the planet are so worried about the failure of our political system, particularly on this issue. I worry about it constantly. I report on it incessantly in the hope that something will change.

I understand the feelings of helplessness and hopelessness. I battle these feelings myself. But also know this. Lashing out is a waste of time and energy. Rage in advance of the facts is just more noise. Some of its eloquent noise, but it is just noise.

David Remnick of the New Yorker wrote one of the finest pieces of the year about the challenges of reporting during the age of Donald Trump. He told his readers despair is not an option. Despair is a form of self-indulgence, a dodge.

Remnick is absolutely right. Despair is not an option, particularly in advance of the facts.

The times are just too serious.

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Australias democracy has faceplanted and Labor is staring down some disturbing truths - The Guardian