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The Australian and Aboriginal flags fly over Sydney Harbour Bridge. Australians must now decide on a body to represent Indigenous people. Photo / Getty Images

OPINION:

A Kiwi wandering into an Australian pub these days might find the chatter at the bar is about something they didnt expect.

The chances are that bar patrons will be sparring over the upcoming voice referendum rather than, say, the weekend footy or the upcoming Ashes series.

Given that the voice debate has underlying themes of identity and belonging, it might have some degree of familiarity for Kiwis. They are, after all, the themes of some of the conversations (or slanging matches, more like) going on in New Zealand.

Across the Tasman, the voice in question is that of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples. What Australians will be asked in the referendum is whether there should be constitutional recognition of the continents original inhabitants.

Its an issue thats dividing Australians and, whatever the outcome of the referendum, about half the country is going to be unhappy. Especially now that hopes of a bipartisan approach appear to have been dashed.

A yes vote would mean changing the constitution to give the Indigenous population a voice, meaning theyll be able to advise the Australian Parliament and Government on laws and policies that affect their wellbeing.

It wont deliver anything in the way of tangible benefits, such as new services or funding. And it wont lead to any laws being invalidated. It would simply enshrine two fundamental principles, recognition and consultation.

It doesnt seem a lot to ask on behalf of one of the oldest living cultures on Earth.

Yet the referendum subject is controversial and creating deep splits. Not surprisingly, its one of the five biggest news stories of 2023, as measured by the number of hours a story spends on the homepages of major Australian news sites.

The politics of the issue are intriguing. Since winning last years election, the Labor PM Anthony Albanese has been urging Australians to seize the moment. His catchcry is, if not now, when? The polls suggest hes on a winner, though the gap has narrowed slightly in the past month.

Meanwhile, the Opposition and Liberal leader, Peter Dutton, has decided to champion the no case. He argues the referendum is divisive and wont materially help First Nations people, many of whom continue to live in appalling conditions. Instead of a peoples vote, he wants regional and local voices established by legislation.

The sniping has gone up a level since Dutton made his call, as I observed on an Easter visit to Australia.

Hes been tagged a heartless Judas and accused of fuelling a culture war campaign. There are howls of outrage about race-based constitutional change. A Liberal grandee has denounced the yes camp for trying to denigrate and humiliate opponents. And the exercise has been described you probably guessed it as wokeness, a promotion of identity politics.

Duttons strategy sure feels risky.

Hes managed to alienate some of his own party. His shadow minister for Indigenous Australians has resigned the role, and the Liberals deputy leader and several other frontbenchers are refusing to say how theyll campaign ahead of the vote. Most worryingly, a shade under 40per cent of Liberal voters back the yes case, either strongly or partly, according to Newspoll.

Yet despite that latter statistic, his sagging popularity, and the fact the Liberals lost a March by-election the Government won an Opposition seat in a by-election for the first time in 100 years Dutton is going for broke and making the referendum a partisan political issue. Aussie commentators have had plenty to say about whether thats a wise idea.

If the referendum fails and many are pointing out that no referendum in Australia has succeeded without bipartisan support some warn of sorrowful times ahead. And Dutton will inevitably be blamed for that.

Thats the thing with polarising issues that attract labels such as culture war and wokeness. There is seldom, if ever, any upside for politicians who wade in, but there can be downside, as we have seen here recently.

We tend to remember only the blunders, like Greens co-leader Marama Davidson blaming violence on white cis men, and Nationals Simon OConnor boorishly responding, on the day after a US school shooting, that the shooter didnt fit that description.

We are getting used to New Zealand opposition politicians trying to capture and exploit the public mood on issues where theres a marked polarity of opinion.

Co-governance, hate speech laws, transgender rights and the use of Te Reo Mori have offered them plenty of material.

Co-governance is probably the foremost example.

Whether the public unease about it is a consequence of the issue being poorly communicated, or just the Government being tone deaf on where the political centre is, the upshot is that it has presented an opportunity for the doomsayers.

So Christopher Luxon demands an end to co-governance in public services because the conversation about it is immature and divisive. David Seymour derides it as a culture war that must be resolved by a referendum. And Winston Peters mentions co-governance when lamenting the seeds of apartheid being sprinkled around New Zealand.

By whipping up a squall of drama, they hope to position themselves on what they see as the right side of the divide over the issue, and if theres votes in taking that position, so much the better.

British academic Matthew Goodwin, a specialist in populist politics, has written of the lingering divides over values, voice and virtue that are emerging in the UK, and the political risks for parties that amplify those divisions.

In New Zealand, where the dark shadow of high inflation and rising borrowing costs means the upcoming election will be overwhelmingly about the economy, its difficult to see how such culture-war divisions will change many votes.

But that wont stop some politicians from trying.

- Mike Munro is a former chief of staff for Jacinda Ardern and was chief press secretary for Helen Clark.

Read more from the original source:
Mike Munro: Politicians wade into the culture wars - New Zealand Herald