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Caitlyn Jenners candidacy for governor of California is a political gift to the embattled incumbent she is trying to defeat, Gavin Newsom. Just askCaitlyn Jenner. Four days after announcing a long-shot Republican bid, the 71-year-old Olympic gold medalist and Kardashian stepmom posted a tweet congratulating Newsom on a Jenner-fueled $300,000 fundraising burst. Youre welcome, Gavin! Jenner, or one of her campaign staffers, wrote. I am glad I am such a fundraising asset to your team.

Even if the tweet was an attempt at sarcasm, it highlighted the fact that Jenners high-profile entry into an already-cartoonish field of challengers should do nothing but help Newsom survive a recall vote. Her first-time run for office will suck up media attention that might otherwise be focused on Newsoms record. And by enlisting Trumpworld advisers, including former campaign manager Brad Parscale; deploying email blasts with a Trumpian flavor; and coming down firmly on the conservative side of the culture wars, Jenners campaign is strengthening the case Newsoms team has been making for months: that the recall effort is a hard-right ploy to steal an office California Republicans cant win in a conventional election.

Registered Democrats outnumber Republicans by nearly two to one in California, with about a quarter of voters unaffiliated; in November, Joe Biden clobbered Donald Trump by 29 points. So Newsomwisely and obviouslyhas cast the effort to oust him in starkly partisan terms. Look at who we rolled out in our first announcement, says Nathan Click, the Newsom campaigns communications director. People like Stacey Abrams and Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren. These are the leaders of our national Democratic Party. And more locally, Katie Porter and Alex Padilla. Democrats across the ideological and issue spectrum see this recall for what it is, and theyre backing Newsom. Jenners entry, in late April, almost seemed scriptedby her target. For months Newsom has been calling the recall a Republican power grab and trying to brand it as very Trumpy, says Michael Trujillo, a California Democratic political strategist. Which was smart. Now you have Caitlyn basically highlighting all their talking points by hiring a bunch of Trump aides. If youre Team Newsom, its the gift that keeps on giving.

The recall adds to what has been a turbulent year for the governor. Newsom, along with New Yorks Andrew Cuomo, was hailed as a pandemic star in early 2020 for shutting down the state early. Then Newsom eased restrictions in May, before tightening them again in July, only to see cases spike at the end of the year. Breakdowns in the states unemployment system led to huge delayswhile fraud by prison inmates and identity theft rings stole an estimated $11 billion to $30 billion. Newsom seemed unable to muscle or cajole the states teachers union into cooperating with school reopenings. And in November, just as the governor was pleading with the public to stay home, he went out to a birthday dinner celebrating one of Californias most powerful lobbyists at one of the countrys most expensive restaurants, the French Laundry. The recall drive gained traction.

Jenner is frequently compared to Arnold Schwarzenegger, another celebrity who jumped into a California gubernatorial recalland won. But the parallel is a poor fit. Its just an entirely different electorate from 2003, says Katie Merrill, a Democratic consultant based in Berkeley. And people hated Gray Davis at the time, mostly because of the energy crisis and the rolling blackouts. Newsom, despite the pandemic and all the challenges, remains very popular.

The support may not be out of love for Newsom, says Garry South, a Democratic strategist who advised Governor Davis. But it is out of a sense of disgust that Republicans are trying this because they cant beat us fair and square in a regularly scheduled election.

Newsom has also been savvy in trying to prevent a repeat of one key aspect of the 2003 recall: Davis was hurt by the candidacy of Lieutenant Governor Cruz Bustamante, a fellow Democrat. Newsom has so far sealed off any intraparty challenge, aggressively campaigning throughout the state with local officials and pushing for COVID relief money to be distributed far and wide. The states other ambitious pols also remember that after the failed recall bid, Bustamante lost his only other bid for public office.

Newsom is in strong political shape, at least for the recall, which is still unscheduled but is expected to happen this fall. Yet the state has serious problems that predate the pandemic and will likely outlive it. Californias acute housing shortage has fueled its soaring rate of homelessness; the states largest public utility company, Pacific Gas & Electric, has only recently emerged from bankruptcy. Newsom is rightit is a Republican recall now, with national Republican money, a California Democratic strategist says. But they took over what had been a grassroots effort. So another way of reading this is that its the deplorables versus the elites, people who have just kind of had enough. I dont think Newsom is evil; I just think hes uninterested in the problems of the little people. And the people are revolting, folks.

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Gavin Newsoms Team Is Thrilled That Caitlyn Jenner Is Running for Governor - Vanity Fair