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The relationship between Russia and Belarus has never been an easy one. The two former Soviet republics have spent the last two decades on a roller coaster ride sometimes allies, sometimes adversaries in heated public rows.
Now, as Russias neighbors grow increasingly worried about Moscows ambitions in the region, Belarus has joined them: The countrys ever-more-tenuous relationship with Moscow has deteriorated to the point of a regional crisis.
The situation echoes the tensions over Ukraine in 2014, when a mass protest movement ousted a Kremlin-friendly president, setting the stage for a Russian invasion and seizure of the Crimean Peninsula. Ukraines nearly three-year war with Russian-backed separatist fighters in the east has killed 10,000 and displaced 1.75 million.
Previous disputes between the two countries have followed a predictable pattern that includes oil and gas price wars, public accusations, anti-Belarusian information campaigns from Moscow, and eventually a resolution, said Andrei Yahorau, the director of Center for European Transformation, a regional think tank in Minsk.
This time, though, Russian President Vladimir Putin is showing signs that he is less likely to negotiate.
Whats different about this crisis is Ukraine, Crimea and the so-called new Cold War, Yahorau said.
The stakes are now higher.
At the heart of the feud is the status of what is quietly referred to here as the oil for kisses deal, in which Russia supplies Belarus with subsidized oil and gas in exchange for Minsks loyalty.
When Russia in 2015 refused to lower its gas prices to reflect a decrease in global oil prices, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko began exploring closer relations with the West.
Lukashenko has refused so far to recognize Russias annexation of Crimea. Last year, he said no to a Kremlin proposal to build a Russian air base in eastern Belarus.
Lukashenko, who has ruled this former Soviet republic with an authoritarian grip for 22 years, bowed to Western pressure in 2015 to release six prominent political prisoners, and ushered in a period of softening against political dissent and public gatherings. This earned him cautious praise from Western governments, which subsequently lifted sanctions on Belarus.
With Russias economy in decline because of lower oil prices and its own Western sanctions placed after the Crimean annexation, Lukashenko in 2016 turned for help elsewhere, entering loan talks with the International Monetary Fund.
In Moscow, such moves were seen as a betrayal from a country long perceived as a brotherly neighbor, and one heavily subsidized by the Kremlin budget.
Throughout the current crisis, Russian media have been ratcheting up what some say is a Kremlin-orchestrated information war.
Nina Stuzhinskaya, a Belarusian historian from Minsk, said the information campaign is designed to fuel the crisis and spark fears among the Russian public that Belarus is looking to follow Ukraine into an alliance with the West.
In November, Stuzhinskaya appeared as a guest on Time Will Tell, a popular, live evening talk show on Russian state-owned television.
The show began with a discussion about how Russia had failed to react quickly enough to stop Ukraines betrayal of Moscow during the protests of 2014. The host, Artyom Sheynin, then turned to Belarus, introducing it as a country suffering from a similar sickness.
Surrounding the subsequent conversation, Stuzhinskaya said, seemed to be an underlying question of whether Belarus had a right to call itself a separate nation from Russia.
I went into that show like it was a boxing ring, and I came out feeling like I was the punching bag, she said.
Already, Russia has shown signs that the Kremlin is willing to react more harshly than in the past.
Russia has banned some Belarusian meat, dairy and other agricultural products, diminishing Minsks exports, of which 40% go to Russia. The Kremlin has reduced crude oil shipments to Belarus, hurting another important sector of Belarus economy. State-run enterprises refine Russian oil and then sell it abroad.
In January, Minsk announced that it would introduce visa-free travel for tourists from more than 80 countries. Russia responded by moving troops from the Federal Security Services, the successor to the KGB, to the shared border, which had previously stood relatively unchecked.
What the Lukashenko administration doesnt accept yet is that the Kremlin is only giving ultimatums now, said Andrei Porotnikov, a security analyst with the Belarus Security Blog. Things arent going to be resolved in the same way they previously were.
In recent weeks, public protests have sprung up in Minsk and a few regional cities against an unpopular law instituting a yearly flat tax on the unemployed. So far, the protests have been small, and authorities have not cracked down on demonstrators, a rarity in Lukashenkos tightly controlled Belarus.
Still, Belarusians are wary of their unpredictable neighbor to the east, who some fear could use the public unrest as a pretext for Russian intervention. Speculation about a possible Crimea-like annexation occurring in Belarus, thus far without foundation, is sparking uneasiness around the country.
When Stuzhinskaya returned to Minsk after the Moscow talk show, her friend picked her up at the airport and said she had seen the show. Its a good thing Belarus wont be going the way of Crimea, Stuzhinskaya later recalled her saying on the car ride back to her private house on the outskirts of Minsk.
I told her, You know what? In Russias eyes, we are exactly like Crimea. And thats whats so worrying, Stuzhinskaya said.
Ayres is a special correspondent.
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In Belarus, a rising fear: Will we be the next Ukraine? - LA Times - Los Angeles Times
Foreign Policy (blog) | A Bellwether Case For Ukraine's Reform Movement Foreign Policy (blog) His case comes amid rising public disillusionment over the extent to which reform is possible in Ukraine. It will be a make-or-break test for the National Anti-corruption Bureau of Ukraine (NABU), the fledgling independent agency created after the ... Why Ukraine is facing its biggest test in the fight against corruption Courthouse Drama: Jailing Of Ukraine Tax Chief Could Signal Watershed In Fight Against 'Corrupt Untouchables' Protesters block courthouse after Ukrainian tax boss accused of embezzling millions |
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A Bellwether Case For Ukraine's Reform Movement - Foreign Policy (blog)
MOSCOW (Sputnik) Germany expects the United States touse the countrys influence onall the parties concerned toimplement the Minsk agreements onthe conflict settlement inUkraine, German Foreign Minister Sigmar Gabriel said Thursday.
"We would liketo see the United States not only informed, butalso using their capabilities, asan official representative ofthe State Department said, toexert influence onthose whom they can influence, so that [the Minsk agreements] were respected," Gabriel said afterholding talks withRussian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov.
Gabriel is currently paying a two-day working visit toMoscow inorder todiscuss international issues, including the Syrian and Ukrainian crises and EU-Russia ties.
Sputnik/ Sergey Averin
In February 2015, Kiev forces and Donbass independence supporters signed a peace agreement inthe Belarusian capital ofMinsk. The deal stipulates a full ceasefire, weapons withdrawal fromthe line ofcontact inDonbass, aswell asconstitutional reforms that would give a special status tothe Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics. Despite the agreement brokered bythe Normandy Four states, the ceasefire regime is regularly violated, withboth sides accusing each other ofmultiple breaches, undermining the terms ofthe accord.
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Berlin Expects US to Facilitate Implementation of Minsk Deal on Ukraine - Sputnik International
Ukrainian authorities are threatening to impose sanctions on the local subsidiary of Sberbank, Russia's main state bank, after Sberbank said it would recognize passports issued by Russia-backed separatists in eastern Ukraine.
The Ukrainian central bank (NBU) made a statement on March 7, after Sberbank said it would comply with Russian President Vladimir Putin's February 18 decree ordering Russian authorities to recognize identity documents issued by separatists who hold parts of Ukraine's Donetsk and Luhansk regions.
It said that if Sberbank's acceptance of separatist-issued documents was confirmed, the NBU would ask Ukraine's National Security and Defense Council to impose sanctions on the Russian bank's subsidiary in Ukraine.
It did not specify what measures it would seek, and added that the sanctions would be subject to approval by President Petro Poroshenko.
The bank issued its statement after Interior Minister Arsen Avakov called for a ban on Sberbank's operations in Ukraine.
Putin's decree has been criticized by Kyiv, Western governments, and international groups that say it violates or will undermine the European-brokered Minsk peace accords.
The Minsk accords are aimed at ending the war between the government forces and the Russia-backed separatists, which has killed more than 9,750 people since April 2014.
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Ukraine Threatens Russian Bank With Sanctions Over Separatist Documents - RadioFreeEurope/RadioLiberty