Mediaboss Marketing

Today, Ukraine is the site of a violent struggle between an embattled democracy and a repressive, irredentist, authoritarian regime bent on subduing it. Tomorrow, Taiwan could be the site of a similar clash. Oriana Skylar Mastro is likely correct inarguingthat Russias assault on Ukraine does not presage a Chinese attack on Taiwan. But applying lessons from the current crisis could nonetheless be critical for defending Taiwan in the future.

While the Ukraine invasion is still in its early days, it has already demonstrated how the United States and its allies can prevent a Chinese invasion from becoming the worlds next big crisis. Rather than treat a Chinese victory as inevitable, Washington should begin preparing in peacetime to ensure a rapid, coordinated military and economic response to any potential attack. Policymakers in allied states around the region should also prepare for a dramatic refugee crisis, exacerbated by Taiwans geography. To strengthen these efforts, America and its allies can target intelligence collection to better assess Beijings intentions while also trying to anticipate the unexpected ways an invasion could reshape the political landscape from Canberra to Tokyo.

No Surprises

Months prior to its invasion,satellite imageryshowed that Russia was building up its forces on Ukraines border. While many had hoped that Putin would avoid conflict, the West should have seen his buildup as a sign of intent to invade. If China chooses to invade Taiwan, it will likely have to prepare on a scale that will be impossible to conceal. In addition to massing missiles, the Chinese military would likely need to assemble an amphibious armada, aircraft, paratroopers and infantry, and logistical support capabilitiesthat could be incredibly challenging to hide. But these preparations could either signal the start of a very large exercise or an assault. As a result, maintaining a close watch on military movements will be critical.Distinguishing between efforts geared toward an exercise versus an invasion will be difficult. There are arguably certain logistical preparations that China would conduct for an invasion but not a large-scale exercise, such as amassing greater amounts of food, fuel, and ammunition and assembling a large number of field hospitals. Similarly, it may be the case that for an invasion, some units that rarely participate in East China Sea exercises would be called up and moved east. This suggests that active and real-time intelligence could be the critical factor in alerting the world to an invasion.

The more allies monitor Chinese movements during future exercises, the better they will be able to judge what could potentially be invasion preparations. Taiwan should continue to devote its satellites and other advanced intelligence collection capabilities to this effort while the United States and other like-minded countries shouldfosterrobust intelligence links with Taiwan toward this end. By doing so, they can ensure that critical information collected by foreign sources is shared widely to prevent any surprise attacks and to assist with targeting cues in wartime. By the time it becomes apparent that an exercise is a ruse for an invasion, it will be difficult to assemble a credible deterrent in the region. Thus, it would benefit the United States and its allies to maintain a robust force posture, including logistical and sustainment support, to make clear that China will not be able to achieve its goals by force, or will at least incur enormous costs in doing so.

Prepare for a Struggle

It is still too early to draw definitive conclusions, but it has been striking how well the Ukrainians have defended themselves. Facing aquantitively larger and better equippedRussian military, Ukrainian forces have proven stubbornly resistant despiteassessmentsthat they would be unable to stop Russias rapid movement. This underestimation of the Ukrainians capability and will to fight haddisastrous consequencesfor Russia. The samehubriscould bedevil a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. As in Ukraine, national identity could play a factor. An overwhelming number of people in Taiwan see themselves asTaiwanese, distinct from mainland China, which can serve as a powerful motivation to fight. Training these people into some sort of territorial defense force could help make them lethal. Tactically, in advancing from Taiwans western shore to Taipei, an invasion force could encounter numerousinsurgentsready to set ambushes and take out vehicles with the types of anti-tank weapons being used in Ukraine. Rather than engage the Peoples Liberation Army force-on-force, Taiwan would be better positioned to pursue an asymmetric guerilla war in whichciviliansand military forcesfight from urban areas, where they could hide and restock supplies. Similarly, the same forces could use guerrilla tactics to defend key choke points like bridges or valleys while leveraging mountains or rivers as obstacles. The more effectively teams of citizens and soldiers work together, the more of a challenge the Chinese forces will face. In Ukraine, Russia is already facing these challenges, including resupply issues. The longer Ukrainians hold out, the more challenges Russia will face. The same would be true for China, made worse by the fact that any resupplies would have to be brought from the mainland across the Taiwan Strait.

Just as defenders should not be underestimated, aggressors should not be overestimated. Russiahas a large military but proved unable to force Kyivs quick capitulation. There is still a lot the West does not know aboutPutins operational planand it is unclear which of his generals assumptions regarding force readiness and training proved false. Ukraine showed that even a prepared invasion, telegraphed in advance, can go off-track quickly. Chinas military, like, Russias, is sometimes viewed as a 10-foot giant. But if Russian forces, with recent operational experience in Chechnya and Syria, can struggle, why should we be confident the Peoples Liberation Army will be successful in what would be its first military operation since its border war with Vietnam in 1979? China may choose a more aggressive and lethal approach from the outset in order ensure victory at any cost, but there is stillnothing inevitableabout a Chinese conquest of Taiwan.

Launching a successful large-scale amphibious invasion across a maritime straitwould require a lot of things to go right, and thus involves a lot of opportunities for things to go wrong. Whether it be rough waters across 100 miles of strait, a botched amphibious landing, stretched supply lines, or battlefield mistakes, the Peoples Liberation Army has opportunities for tactical failures that could result in operational catastrophes. The more that other countries help Taiwan, the more opportunities there will be for such catastrophes. And the more these allies prepare and coordinate their force postures and capabilities in peacetime, the more effective their help will be.

Taiwan could best prepare for this operation by ensuring the right kind ofdefense strategy and capabilities. According to Drew Thompson, this means systems that are short-range and defensive, able to survive an initial bombardment from a larger adversary, and suitable for deployment close to home in defense of the island should it come under blockade or attack. Knowing that an invasion would come largely by sea, a premium could be placed on sea mines and anti-ship cruise missiles. Similarly, in addition to successfully injecting paratroopers into Taiwan, air superiority couldbecritical for any Chinese amphibious invasion to succeed. This would put a premium on anti-air capabilities. Finally, for everything, passive-defense measures and lots and lots of munitions may be needed. As Michael Hunzeker wrote in War on the Rocks last year, Taiwan and the United States should be focusing on stockpiling large numbersof small and cheap asymmetric capabilities, things like coastal defense cruise missiles, short-range mobile air defenses, naval mines, and drones.

Allied countries have been explicit that they would not defend Ukraine given that it is not a NATO member. Instead, European countries have been forthcoming with military assistance meant to bolster Ukraines defense, with the United Kingdom,France, theNetherlands, and evenGermany, among others, providing Ukraine with a variety of weapons. Many European countries may choose todo the same thing if Taiwan is attacked: they do not even formally recognize it, and it is geographically far away. These facts could lead to a situation in which allied states, including some of the European nations that had started to make forays into the Indo-Pacific operationally such as France, the United Kingdom, or Germany may be less inclined to provide operational support to Taiwan in a crisis. Were they to still provide military assistance to Taiwan, such as anti-air missiles, this may be exponentially more difficult because of the distance and the fact that Taiwan is an island. Difficulties will only increase if China establishes air superiority and a maritime quarantine of Taiwan, enabling Chinese forces to intercept or prevent such aid from arriving. As a result, this assistance would be more effective before a war starts. Taiwan should be encouraged to stockpile orprocure critical capabilities in peacetime.

A Quick and Coordinated Economic Response

Despite some initial disagreements over things like military aid or exclusion fromSWIFT, the United States helped to rapidly coordinate an international coalition to punish Russia diplomatically, economically, and financially. It also led the way onproviding military assistanceto Ukraine. A similarly quick and unified effort would be necessary if Taiwan were attacked. While it is possible the United States, along withJapanandAustralia, wouldintervene to defend Taiwan either directly or indirectly, it is likely that other countries would find it difficult to do so. Yet these countries could still be part of a coordinated international response to punish Beijing.

As the Ukraine crisis demonstrates, war is conducted ontwo battlefields: one between militaries and one among nations, banks, companies, and individuals. WhileRussia appears to be increasing its military advantage over Ukraine, Western allies are destroying Russia through financial sanctions and other types of economic penalties.Becauseof Chinas global trade andoverseas investments, targeted, coordinated sanctions could drastically hurt the Chinese Communist Party, which is heavily involvedin the economy.Of course, Chinas larger economy and greater integration with the world economy means that such steps might have a larger impact on some allied economies than the sanctions on Russia have had. In other words, the consequences for the global economy could be massive far worse than what we have seen with Russia.

That said, Western countries should be prepared to take many of the same steps they have taken against Russia. These could include cutting off Chinese banks from SWIFT, sanctions on Chinese goods, and secondary sanctions on countries willing to trade with China. In addition, Western countries could ban Chinese planes from their airspace and ships from their ports, forcing Chinese citizens to remain locked in China. For a globally integrated economy like Chinas, this kind of isolation would dry up international trade and possibly collapse the renminbi, leading to significant economic contraction. The damage done by government sanctions could be further compounded by corporate actions. If global corporations discarded their joint ventures in Chinese companies, ended their business relationships with China, or withheld Western products, the air would be sucked out of the Chinese economy. While none of this is likely to cause China to cease an attack on Taiwan, the pain brought to bear on the government could undermine its legitimacy and authority. As with military aid, Taiwans allies and partners should coordinate their economic response in advance to ensure they can act as quickly and effectively as possible.

A Greater Humanitarian Challenge

As of 2020, Ukraines population was approximately44 million people. The website for the U.N. High Commissioner for Refugeessays that almost three million refugeeshaveleft Ukraine for neighboring countries suchPoland, Hungary, Moldova, Romania, and Slovakia.Millions moreare stranded inside the country. There are already growing concerns that the situation is leading to ahumanitarian crisis. ButUkraine is surrounded by land,enablingthose refugeeswho can manage it to escape by train, car, or foot. This is not the case for Taiwan. As of January, the population of Taiwan was approximately23 million people. Should conflict occur, where will these people go? The Philippines and Japan are too far by boat. According to the Ministry of the Interior National Immigration Agency, as of September 2021 there were also approximately 765,000 foreigners on the island. Noncombatant evacuation operations would pose an extra challenge, as there are no good options for getting any of these people off Taiwan during a conflict. And in addition to the large number of people who would want out, there is also the difficulty of getting supplies in. If all Taiwan becomes an active war zone, delivering humanitarian assistance will be more dangerous as well.

Understanding the possible massive scale of a humanitarian crisis, the United States and Taiwan should focus on stockpiling critical resources and relief items. As the most capable ally that is closest to Taiwan, Japan would play a particularly important role. The United States, Japan, and Taiwan should begin discussions in peacetime about how Japan can best receivecivilian refugees during a conflict. This would include identifying likely Japanese air- and seaports that could handle large influxes of people and pre-positioning critical suppliesthere.

There Will Be Unintended Consequences

While trying to prevent surprises, policymakers should recognize that there will still be unintended consequences. Russias war has led to dizzying changes that even a month ago seemed impossible.Belarus amended its constitution to allow it to host nuclear weapons.Finland and Swedenhave signaled their interest in joining NATO. AndGermanyhas taken unprecedented steps to increase its defense spending and arm Ukraine.

In response to a Chinese onslaught against Taiwan, regional countriesmight make similar changes. For example,a Chinese attack could coalesce U.S. partners and allies in the Indo-Pacific. This could create a quasi-alliance between Japan and Australia and also push several states like the Philippines, Thailand, or Vietnam which have been trying to balance between Washington and Beijing closer to the United States. Even South Korea may decide that the price of trying to play nice with China is no longer advantageous.

As with Germany, a conflict could force Japan to rethink aspects of its strategic approach to the world. Already, the Ukraine crisis has caused Tokyo to take unprecedented steps to brace for the fallout of Russias actions. A Taiwanconflict could lead Tokyo to accept its first combat role since WWII and possibly to make rapid changes in its defense policies. Political leaders might prove willing to host U.S. ground-based intermediate-range ballistic missiles or a U.S. Army Multi-Domain Task Force. Given recent chatter among some in Japans political elite on the need for anuclear-sharing arrangementwith the United States, there is always a possibility that a war with China could push Japan into a position where it feels a nuclear deterrent is necessary.

Chinese leaders are learning from the conflict in Ukraine, not just by observing Russias actions, but also the Wests response. The United States, Taiwan, and other like-minded partners should be learning too. By doing so, they can help ensure that Beijing comes away from the current crisis with a greater appreciation of the risks that attacking Taiwan would entail.

Jeffrey W. Hornung is a senior political scientist at the nonprofit, nonpartisan RAND Corporation.

Image: President of the Republic of China (Taiwan)

Read more:
Ukraine's Lessons for Taiwan - War on the Rocks

Since Russia invaded Ukraine, the soaring melody of Ukraines national anthem has been heard worldwide, from antiwar protests in Moscow to the stages of major concert halls, from N.B.A. basketball arenas to TikTok posts.

Known by its opening line, Ukraines glory has not perished, the anthem is being heard daily in Ukraine too, played by military bands in the middle of bomb-damaged cities, sung tearfully by women sweeping up debris in their homes and, on Saturday, in a vital open-air performance by an opera company in the port city of Odessa, despite fears of an imminent Russian bombing campaign.

And on Monday night, the anthem shook the Metropolitan Opera House in New York, whose white travertine exterior was draped in an enormous Ukrainian flag and bathed in blue and yellow lights for its Concert for Ukraine.

Alyona Alyona, one of Ukraines biggest rappers, said in a Skype interview from her home in Baryshivka, a town east of Kyiv, that she was hearing the anthem about 20 times a day on Ukrainian TV, where it was being used to rally the country. She had contributed to a compilation of the countrys music stars singing it, she added. This song has a very big meaning, she said.

Even in Russia, Ukraines anthem has been heard, with some antiwar protesters in Moscow having been filmed defiantly singing it while being arrested.

Paul Kubicek, a political scientist at Oakland University who has written extensively about Ukraine, said the anthem was penned in the 1860s when much of what is today Ukraine was part of the Russian Empire. It was a time of cultural awakening, Kubicek said, with elites looking to revive and celebrate a Ukrainian heritage that was at risk of being lost to a process of Russification.

Those elites included Pavlo Chubynsky, an ethnologist and poet, who in 1862 wrote the lyrics after being inspired by patriotic songs from Serbia and Poland. The following year, a composer and priest, Mykhailo Verbytsky, set Chubynskys words to music.

Rory Finnin, a professor of Ukrainian studies at Cambridge University, said Chubynskys song was one of a host of texts that worried the Russian authorities around that time. In 1863, they began censoring almost all Ukrainian publications, Finnin said. Soon, Chubynsky was expelled from the country for disturbing the minds of the public, Finnin added.

The Russian Empires efforts to quash Ukrainian identity didnt meet with much success. After World War I, Chubynskys song was briefly made Ukraines anthem (in 1918, The New York Times published its lyrics) until the country was absorbed into the Soviet Union. The Soviet authorities later gave Ukraine a new anthem, claiming the country had found happiness in the Soviet Union.

It was only after the Soviet Union collapsed that Chubynsky and Verbytskys work returned as the national anthem., and it has been a vital part of Ukrainian life ever since. In 2013 and 2014, it was sung hourly in Kyivs Maidan Square at protests against President Viktor F. Yanukovychs push to make the country closer to Russia. Finnin said he was present at some of those protests and the anthem was almost used for counting time.

Now, the anthems being used to inspire once more, both within the country and abroad. Below are some of the more notable international performances from the past two weeks:

To open a recent performance at the Kennedy Center in Washington, the Greek violinist Leonidas Kavakos said he wanted to play Ukraines anthem as a sign of respect and solidarity with the country. What starts as a gentle, almost brittle, rendition, soon brings out the melodys power.

Paavo Jrvi. The Estonian American conductor was in Moscow, leading rehearsals for an engagement with a Russian youth orchestra, when Russia began its attack on Ukraine. When he decided to stay there not to disappoint the players, many criticized his choice.

Anna Netrebko. The superstar Russian sopranowill no longer appear at the Metropolitan Operathis season or the next after failing to comply with the companys demand that she distance herself from President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia in the aftermath of the invasion of Ukraine.

Vladimir Potanin. The Guggenheim Museum said that the Russian businessman and close associate of Mr. Putin would step down as one of its trustees, a position he took on in 2002. While noreason was given for the decision, the museums statement referenced the war in Ukraine.

Alexei Ratmansky. The choreographer, who grew up in Kyiv, was preparing a new ballet at the Bolshoi Theater in Moscow when the invasion began, and immediately decided to leave Moscow. The ballet, whose premiere was set for March 30, was postponed indefinitely.

Grard Depardieu. The French actor, who became a Russian citizen in 2013 and is one of the closest Western celebrities to Mr. Putin, tooka surprising stance when he denounced the war during an interview.

The Orchestre de Paris, conducted by Marin Alsop

Marin Alsop appeared intense as she conducted the Orchestra de Paris in the anthem earlier this month, and with players standing to perform, she gave the anthem verve and power.

As well as the above standout performances, the anthem has filled concert halls in the Netherlands, Britain, Poland, France, Germany and other nations across Europe, as this video compilation shows.

Originally posted here:
Ukraines National Anthem Reverberates Around the World - The New York Times

American intelligence officials have discovered that the barrage of ballistic missiles Russia has fired into Ukraine contain a surprise: decoys that trick air-defense radars and fool heat-seeking missiles.

The devices are each about a foot long, shaped like a dart and white with an orange tail, according to an American intelligence official. They are released by the Iskander-M short-range ballistic missiles that Russia is firing from mobile launchers across the border, the official said, when the missile senses that it has been targeted by air defense systems.

Each is packed with electronics and produces radio signals to jam or spoof enemy radars attempting to locate the Iskander-M, and contains a heat source to attract incoming missiles. The official, who was not authorized to speak publicly about intelligence matters, described the devices on the condition of anonymity.

The use of the decoys may help explain why Ukrainian air-defense weapons have had difficulty intercepting Russias Iskander missiles.

Powered by a solid-fuel rocket motor, the Iskander can reach targets more than 200 miles away, according to U.S. government documents. Each mobile launcher can fire two Iskanders before it must be reloaded.

Photographs of the dart-shaped munitions began circulating on social media two weeks ago. They had stumped experts and open-source intelligence analysts many of whom mistook them for bomblets from cluster weapons based on their size and shape.

Richard Stevens, who spent 22 years in the British Army as an explosive ordnance disposal soldier, and later worked as a civilian bomb technician for 10 years in southern Iraq, Africa and other regions, said he had been exposed to plenty of Chinese and Russian munitions, but I had never seen this.

Mr. Stevens posted photos of the munitions to a site for military and civilian bomb disposal experts that he started in 2011, and found that no one else seemed to have seen these mystery munitions before either.

That Russia is using that size of weapon the Iskander-M and quite a few of them I believe, thats why were seeing this now, Mr. Stevens added. Its just that, post-conflict in the past 10 to 15 years, no one has had the opportunity to see this.

The devices are similar to Cold War decoys called penetration aids, the intelligence official said, that have accompanied nuclear warheads since the 1970s and were designed to evade antimissile systems and allow individual warheads to reach their targets. The incorporation of the devices into weapons like the Iskander-M that have conventional warheads has not been previously documented in military arsenals.

March 18, 2022, 11:45 a.m. ET

The minute people came up with missiles, people started trying to shoot them down, and the minute people started trying to shoot them down, people started thinking about penetration aids, Jeffrey Lewis, a professor of nonproliferation at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies in Monterey, Calif., said in an interview. But we never see them because theyre highly secret if you know how they work, you can counteract them.

The use of the decoys may point to some level of carelessness or urgency by Russian military leadership, Mr. Lewis said, given that Russia knows they will inevitably be collected and studied by Western intelligence services so that NATO air defenses can be programmed to defeat the Iskanders countermeasures.

An attack in the west. A missile strike rattled the outskirts of Lviv, a western city that has been a haven for people fleeing areas under siege. The mayor of the city said several missiles had struck an aircraft repair plant at the airport in Lviv, destroying the buildings.

A looming energy crisis. The International Energy Agency said that the repercussions of Russias invasion of Ukraine arelikely to intensify over the next several months, and nations around the world should respond by reducing their use of oil and gas.

And it is highly unlikely, he said, that the version of the Iskander that Russia has sold to other countries would contain these decoys.

That suggests to me that the Russians place some value on keeping that technology close to home and that this war is important enough to them to give that up, Mr. Lewis said. Theyre digging deep, and maybe they no longer care, but I would care if I were them.

I think that there are some very excited people in the U.S. intelligence community right now, he added.

William J. Broad contributed reporting.

Visit link:
Russia Deploys a Mystery Munition in Ukraine - The New York Times

In June 1998, Clinton declared a national emergency under the pretense that the governments of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia and the Republic of Serbia, with respect to Kosovo, were threatening to destabilize countries of the region and to disrupt progress in Bosnia and Herzegovina in implementing the Dayton peace agreement, and therefore constitute an unusual and extraordinary threat to the national security and foreign policy of the United States.

NATO intervened, ended the war and brought an end to most of the immediate suffering.

This poses the question: When does America have a moral obligation to intervene particularly for humanitarian reasons in conflict? And which factors contribute to the choices we make?

America and NATO have a clear geopolitical interest in Ukraine: President Vladimir Putin of Russia cannot be allowed to get away with such unprovoked, naked aggression. What kind of precedent would that set? And whos to say that he would stop there?

But when the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelensky, spoke via video to Congress on Wednesday, part of the appeal he was making was a moral one, an appeal to the American belief in and commitment to the very idea of democracy.

He said:

Peace in your country does not depend anymore only on you and your people. It depends on those next to you, on those who are strong. Strong does not mean big. Strong is brave and ready to fight for the life of his citizens and citizens of the world. For human rights, for freedom, for the right to live decently and to die when your time comes, not when it is wanted by someone else, by your neighbor. Today the Ukrainian people are defending not only Ukraine, we are fighting for the values of Europe and the world, sacrificing our lives in the name of the future.

The question is how far is America compelled to go. President Biden signed off on $13.6 billion in aid on Tuesday and announced on Wednesday that $800 million in military assistance would be sent to Ukraine as part of that funding. These are not trivial amounts. Furthermore, America and its allies have imposed stiff economic sanctions on Russia. The sanctions could contribute to inflation, which means that Americans may pay even more than what the administration is pledging in direct assistance.

I say that the United States must supply military aid and should supply humanitarian aid. But I also say that we must be more consistent in determining who deserves outpourings of our humanitarian impulses.

Human suffering is human suffering. It has been a constant in the story of mankind. Sometimes it overlaps with our national interests, and sometimes it does not. But our sense of morality must remain constant, and in it we must find a place for equity.

See the rest here:
Opinion | What Is Our Moral Obligation in Ukraine? - The New York Times

An international anti-war zoom meeting on February 26 attended by thousands and organized by CODEPINK, Stop the War Coalition, the Campaign for Nuclear Disarmament and the No To NATO network agreed to an international day of anti-war action on Sunday, March 6. We call on everyone who opposes this war to take to the streets on March 6 in a massive display of global opposition to the war and the warmongers.

The war in Ukraine is a disaster for the people of Ukraine and a terrible threat to us all, including increasing the danger of nuclear war. We oppose the Russian invasion and call for the immediate withdrawal of all Russian troops. We recognize that the expansion of NATO and the aggressive approach of Western states have helped cause the crisis and we demand an end to NATO expansion. We also oppose sanctions that will harm ordinary Russians and call on all countries to welcome refugees fleeing the war.

There have already been many anti-war demonstrations in Russia and many other countries. What we need now is a massive, unified response by peace-loving people around the world to say No to War in Ukraine; Yes to Negotiations and Peace.

Go here to see the original:
About - Peace in Ukraine