Archive for the ‘Ukraine’ Category
Putin Counted on Waning U.S. Interest in Ukraine. It Might Be a Winning Bet. – The New York Times
President Vladimir V. Putins strategy for defeating Ukraine can be summed up in one revealing moment in his February interview with the former television host Tucker Carlson. Addressing the possibility of heightened U.S. involvement in Ukraine, the Russian leader asked Americans: Dont you have anything better to do?
After several tumultuous weeks in American politics, Mr. Putin appears closer than ever to getting the answer he seeks.
President Biden, Ukraines most important ally, is engulfed in the biggest political crisis of his tenure, with calls from fellow Democrats to withdraw from the presidential race. Former President Donald J. Trump, favored in the polls, has picked as his running mate one of the loudest critics of American aid to Kyiv.
And at the Republican National Convention Thursday night, Mr. Trump renewed his pledge to end the fighting and channeled Mr. Putin in warning of World War III.
All told, the arc of American foreign policy could be moving closer to Mr. Putins expectations of it: an inward-looking worldview that cares far less about Ukraine than Russians do, making it only a matter of time until Washington abandons Kyiv like its critics say Afghanistan was abandoned in 2021.
In Moscow, analysts are poring over American polls and news reports, while state television and pro-Kremlin blogs have featured extensive coverage of Mr. Trumps pick of Senator J.D. Vance as his vice-presidential candidate. Dmitri Trenin, the former head of the Carnegie Moscow Center, said his conclusion from the polling is that all foreign problems are low on the priority list for American voters.
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Putin Counted on Waning U.S. Interest in Ukraine. It Might Be a Winning Bet. - The New York Times
Cardinal Parolin to Ukraine: ‘Nothing is impossible for God’ – Vatican News
During his visit to Ukraine, the Holy See's Secretary of State, Cardinal Pietro Parolin, brings Pope Francis' message of closeness and affirms that even when we may lose hope, nothing is impossible for God.
By Deborah Castellano Lubov
While our hopes may be diminished, everything is possible for God who is greater than ourselves and our capabilities...
The Holy See's Secretary of State, Cardinal Pietro Parolin, gave this comforting reminder on Sunday, 21 July, at the conclusion of his visit to the see of the leader of the Ukrainian Greek Catholic Church, Major Archbishop of Kyiv-Halych, His Beatitude Sviatoslav Shevchuk.
Cardinal Parolin's 19-24 July visit to Ukraine follows his appointment as Pontifical Legate for the concluding celebration of the pilgrimage of Ukrainian Latin Rite Catholics, to the Marian Shrine of Berdychiv.
The Cardinals visit marks his first to the Eastern European country since the beginning of the full-scale Russian invasion in February 2024.
The Secretary of State expressed his gratitude to be at the seat of the Major Archbishop, "the father and head" of the Ukrainian Greek Catholic Church, and for the "significant progress" that had been made there since Parolin's visit in 2016.
Cardinal Parolin acknowledged, "Obviously, the moment I visit Ukraine is not a pleasant one, as we are all aware of the situation," but that, regardless, he traveled "to pray together, and to pray with you."
This Holy See official recalled, as he had done before during his stay in the country, that the Church has "a prophetic role" to play, one that follows the example of the prophet Elijah.
"We must call for a great prayer for peace, rooted in the belief that everything is possible with God," he said.
"Even though our hopes are finite and limited," he continued, "we know that God is greater than ourselves, our hearts, and our capabilities."
God is greater than ourselves, our hearts, and our capabilities...
With this comforting reminder, the Cardinal reiterated: "The message I bring from the Pope is one of closeness."
Recalling that Pope Francis has over the years repeatedly remembered the suffering in the war-torn country, including at his 21 July Angelus address to the faithful in St. Peter's Square, the Cardinal noted, "From the beginning, the Pope has shown immense closeness and great participation in this people's pain and suffering."
Cardinal Parolin noted that his physical presence in the country, "adds a 'living' aspect to this papal presence," which "shares in the pain," but, especially, "desires to help open paths of peace" and "toward a resolution of this war."
"I hope that my presence here," he expressed, "can make a small contribution in this sense."
Cardinal Parolin concluded his remarks, reiterating how "genuinely pleased" he was to be there and to share this important moment together.
The message I bring from the Pope is one of closeness.
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Cardinal Parolin to Ukraine: 'Nothing is impossible for God' - Vatican News
What I saw and heard about the Ukraine war in Moscow – Responsible Statecraft
Perhaps the most striking thing about Moscow today is its calm. This is a city that has been barely touched by war. Indeed, until you turn on the television where propaganda is omnipresent you would hardly know that there is a war.
Any economic damage from Western sanctions has been offset by the large number of wealthy Russians who have returned due to sanctions. The Russian government has deliberately limited conscription in Moscow and St. Petersburg, and this, together with a degree of repression, explains why there have been few protests by educated youth. No longer fearing conscription, many of the younger Muscovites who fled Russia at the start of the war have now returned.
As to the shops in central Moscow, I couldnt say if the Louis Vuitton handbags are the genuine articles or Chinese knock-offs, but there is no lack of them. And far more important, Russia since the war demonstrates something that Germany once understood and the rest of Europe would do well to understand: that in an uncertain world, it is very important indeed to be able to grow all your own food.
In the provinces, it is reportedly very different. There, conscription, and casualties, really have bitten deep. This however has been balanced by the fact that the industrial provinces have experienced a huge economic boom due to military spending, with labor shortages pushing up wages. Stories abound of technical workers well into their seventies being recalled to work, fostering their income and restoring the self-respect they lost with the collapse of the 1990s. As I heard from many Russians, the war has finally forced us to do many of the things that we should have done in the 1990s.
In Moscow at least, there is, however, little positive enthusiasm for the war. Both opinion polls, and my own conversations with Russian elites, suggest that a majority of Russians do not want to fight for a complete victory (whatever that means) and would like to see a compromise peace now. Even large majorities however are against surrender, and oppose the return to Ukraine of any land in the five provinces annexed by Russia.
In the elites, the desire for a compromise peace is linked to opposition to the idea of trying to storm major Ukrainian cities by force, as was the case with Mariupol and Kharkov is at least three times the size of Mariupol. Even if we succeeded, our casualties would be huge, so would the deaths of civilians, and we would inherit great heaps of ruins that we would have to rebuild, one Russian analyst told me. I dont think most Russians want to see that.
Despite efforts by some figures like former president Dmitri Medvedev, there is very little hatred of the Ukrainian people (as opposed to the Ukrainian government) in part because so many Russians are themselves Ukrainian by origin. Hence perhaps another reason why Putin has presented this as a war with NATO, not Ukraine. This recalled the attitudes to Russia of people I met in the Russian-speaking areas of Ukraine last year, a great many of whom are themselves wholly or partly Russian. They hated the Russian government, not the Russian people.
In the foreign and security elites, various ideas for a compromise peace are circulating: a treaty ratified by the United Nations, guaranteeing Ukrainian (and Russian) security without Ukraine joining NATO; the creation of demilitarized zones patrolled by U.N. peacekeepers as opposed to the annexation of more territory; territorial swaps, in which Russia would return land in Kharkov to Ukraine in exchange for land in the Donbas or Zaporozhia. The great majority of Russian analysts with whom I spoke believe however that only the U.S. can initiate peace talks, and that this will not happen until after the U.S. elections, if it happens at all.
The overall mood therefore seems to be one of accepting the inevitability of continued war, rather than positive enthusiasm for the war; and the Putin administration seems content with this. Putin remains very distrustful of the Russian people; hence his refusal so far to mobilize more than a fraction of Russias available manpower. This is not a regime that wants mass participation, and hence is also wary about mass enthusiasm. Its maxim seems rather, Calm is the first duty of every citizen.
A German version of this article was published in the Berliner Zeitung on June 29, 2024.
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What I saw and heard about the Ukraine war in Moscow - Responsible Statecraft