Tea party to defend its small government champions in 2016 Senate races
Sen. John McCain likely has a bulls-eye on his back, but tea party groups have signaled that they expect the 2016 Senate races to be a lot more about defending the small government champions the movement helped win in the 2010 wave election than in headhunting establishment Republicans.
Mr. McCain, an Arizona Republican and the GOPs presidential nominee in 2008, has already said he expects to face a primary challenge, and tea party groups are talking up apparent early interest in the seat shown by Rep. David Schweikert.
On the other side is Sen. Mike Lee, Utah Republican, who was part of the 2010 tea party wave and who the groups are now rallying around, hoping to head off an establishment-backed challenge.
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If the Republican establishment wants to defeat Sen. Lee in a primary, they have their work cut out for them, said Ken Cuccinelli, head of the Senate Conservatives Fund. Not only do voters in Utah value him, there are thousands of freedom-loving Americans across the country who are ready to go to battle for him.
The tea party ended with little to show for its election battles in 2014. House Majority Leader Eric Cantor was unseated in a primary, but senators they targeted managed to survive in Kansas, Tennessee, Mississippi and Kentucky. But the chief storyline of 2014 was the GOP establishment getting its candidates and those candidates going on to capitalize, winning many of the seats Democrats had to defend.
Political analysts say 2016 is shaping up to be different, with Democrats only defending 10 seats and Republicans having to defend 24 seats, including in blue and purple states where they won in 2010 as part of the first anti-President Obama wave.
Two Republicans who tea party analysts say could run into trouble with their primary electorate are Sen. Jerry Moran of Kansas, who led the National Republican Senatorial Campaign into contested primaries, and Sen. Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, who lost a primary in 2010 to a tea party candidate but won her seat anyway as a write-in for the general election.
But the analysts said Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida has done a good job repairing his image after teaming up with Mr. McCain, Senate Democrats and Mr. Obama to push an immigration legalization bill.
And tea party groups say Sens. Mark Kirk of Illinois, Rob Portman of Ohio and Patrick J. Toomey of Pennsylvania are likely as good as they are going to get in those states.
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Tea party to defend its small government champions in 2016 Senate races