Mediaboss Marketing

By Nour Abdul-Razzak, Carlo Prato and Stphane Wolton By Nour Abdul-Razzak, Carlo Prato and Stphane Wolton February 24 at 6:00 AM

This week, federal election commissioner and formercommission chair Ann Ravel publicly announced her upcoming resignation. She didnt mince words: The mission of the FEC is essential to ensure a fair electoral process. Yet since the Supreme Courts Citizens United decision, our political campaigns have been awash in unlimited, often dark money.

Citizens United is one of the most controversial Supreme Court rulings of recent years. Issued in 2010, it establishes that outside spending in elections qualifies as constitutionally protected speech, effectively removing restrictions that date back to 1947. As a result, corporations and unions have the right to spend unlimited (and largely undisclosed) amounts of money advocating in favor of or against specific candidates. Many, including President Barack Obama, have disagreed with the decision. During the past presidential campaign, Donald Trump repeatedly endorsed this view, referring to the super PACs which emerged as a result of Citizens United as a total phony deal. Calls for changehave also come from others within the Republican Party.

Could President Trump lead an effort to reform campaign finance? Theres one challenge: Our recent research shows that Citizens United has earned Republicans a substantial number of state legislative seats.

Our research focuses on state legislative elections because we can more easily isolate the effect of Citizens United compared withother factors that influence election outcomes at various levels (such as the popularity of the president). Before 2010, 23 states had bans on corporations and union funding of outside spending. As a result of the courts ruling, these states had to change their campaign laws. We can then compare the changes before and after Citizens United in these 23 states with the same changes in the 27 states whose laws did not change. Theeffect of the courts ruling is then simply the differences between these two before-and-after comparisons.

We find that Citizens United increased the GOPs average seat share in the state legislature by fivepercentage points. That is a large effect large enough that, were it applied to the past twelve Congresses, partisan control of the House would have switched eight times. In line with a previous study, we also find that the vote share of Republican candidates increased three to four points, on average.

We also uncovered evidence that these results stem from the influence of corporations and unions. In states where union membership is relatively high and corporations relatively weak, Citizens United did not have a discernible effect on the partisan balance of the state legislature. But in states with weak unions and strong corporations, the decision appeared to increase Republican seat share by as much as 12 points.

Citizens United also changed state legislatures in other ways. First, state legislatures became more conservative afterthe ruling, and more so in states with relatively weak unions and strong corporations. Second, the ruling appeared to produce a small increase in the ideological extremism of representatives. Surprisingly, this effect is stronger for elected Democrats, who tend to become more liberal, than for elected Republicans.

Despite the outcry that followed the ruling,some observerswere quick to point out that wealthy interests already had many avenues of influence in elections. So it is too early to claim that Citizens United completely reshaped corporate influence in U.S. politics.

Nevertheless, our findings show that allowing corporations and unions to directly spend in elections has had important consequences. This makes it especially interesting to see if Trump follows up on his criticisms of the campaign finance system. Ravels replacement might give an early signal of his intentions.

Nour Abdul-Razzak is a PhD student at the Harris School of Public Policy, University of Chicago.

Carlo Prato is an assistant professor in the Department of Political Science, Columbia University.

Stphane Wolton is anassistant professor in the Department of Government, London School of Economics and Political Science.

Continued here:
How Citizens United gave Republicans a bonanza of seats in US state legislatures - Washington Post

Amid the sea of red Make America Great Again hats, blue Socialism sucks T-shirts and the marathon series of speeches and panel discussions featuring top White House advisers and other recognizable faces at the annual Conservative Political Action Conference, there was something in much shorter supply: Republican members of Congress.

Just one current U.S. senator spoke on Thursday at CPAC at theNational Harbor complex in Oxon Hill, Md., with no others scheduled for the rest of the four-day gathering. Nine U.S. House members are on the roster of speakers.

House Speaker Paul D. Ryan (R-Wis.), who took the stage to AC/DC in 2016, is not here. Nor is Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), who famously presented a colleague with a gun at CPAC in 2014. And Sens. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) and Rand Paul (R-Ky.), who once sought to build buzz here for their budding presidential campaigns, are nowhere to be found.

During Barack Obamas presidency, CPAC served as a tryout of sorts for ambitious Republican lawmakers seeking to brand themselves as the future of the party, and for congressional leaders looking to articulate their vision for governance. Now, its the place where President Trump is expected to reaffirm the themes he rode to victory in a Friday speech a year after hecanceled on CPAC at the last minute.

Last year everybodys putting the wares on display it was kind of auditioning for the presidency, said former representative Tom Davis (R-Va.). This time, it is basically Trumptrying to co-opt these folks.

Davisadded: What a difference a year makes.

Last year, CPAC kicked off during a week when Congress was in session. Davis and several GOP congressional aides noted that Congress is out this week, and members are tending to business in their home states and districts and elsewhere.

Hes on political travel this week, said Ryan spokesman Doug Andres of his boss.

Antonia Ferrier, a spokeswoman for McConnell, said, As you know, this week is a recess week, and Senator McConnell is home in Kentucky. McConnells 2014 appearance came as he was in the midst of a reelection campaign and eager to tout his gun rights record.

Ferrier directed questions about whether McConnell was invited to speak to CPAC organizers. Matt Schlapp, head of the American Conservative Union, which puts on the event, did not respond to a request for comment.

Rubio was invited to speak, his office said, but is not in Washington and had to decline. Aides did not respond with an explanation of why. Rubio has taken heat from demonstrators who have expressed concerns about his refusal to hold town hall meetings during the recess.

The only senator who spoke at CPAC is Ted Cruz (R-Tex.), the firebrand conservative who clashed with Trump during the campaign. Cruz is up for reelection in 2018 and is seen in the party as someone who might still harbor presidential ambitions.

Cruz predicted in his remarks that there will be another vacancy on the Supreme Court later this year but provided no explanation for why he believes that. He seemed to relish the notion of another confirmation fight with Democrats.

Paul, the libertarian-leaning Republican who won CPACs presidential straw poll in 2013 and 2014, has seen his stock in the GOP diminish after a disappointing presidential campaign. His office did not respond to a request for comment explaining why he was not speaking at CPAC.

During the campaign, Trump railed against the political establishment, including bashing GOP congressional leadership in blunt fashion at times. The relationship between Trump and congressional Republicans has been uneasy during the first few weeks of his presidency.

McConnell has said he likes what Trump is doing but not what he is saying and tweeting. Other Capitol Hill Republicans have been deeply unsettled by some of Trumps policies, most notably his entry ban, which was stopped by a federal court.

The House members speaking at CPAC include Rep. Ron DeSantis (R-Fla.), who participated in a panel discussion titled FREE stuff vs FREE-dom: Millennials Love Affair with Bernie Sanders.

Rep. Kevin Brady (R-Tex.), chairman of the powerful House Ways and Means Committee, is scheduled to sit for an interview with Alex Marlow of Breitbart News on Friday on the conundrum of tax reform.

Congressional leaders and Congress as a whole continues to be unpopular. A Gallup poll released this month showed that the approval rating of Congress stood at 28 percent up from 19 percent in January.

In his remarks, Cruz vouched for a proposal that some voters might like, given those dismal numbers: imposing term limits on members of Congress.

See the original post:
In a shift, prominent congressional Republicans in short supply at CPAC - Washington Post

New York Times

Republicans Want You in a Health Savings Account. So Now What? New York Times If you've been watching the debate in Washington over what is to become of our health insurance plans, you know that Republicans already disagree on a whole bunch of things. They're not sure about what any new plan will cost. They're not sure how any ... and more »

Go here to see the original:
Republicans Want You in a Health Savings Account. So Now What? - New York Times

MILTON, Fla. -- At Grover Ts Barbecue in Milton, Florida, Congressman Matt Gaetz was grilled before he even got inside.

I want to know if the president is bought and paid for by the Russian oligarchy! one woman said to him.

Rep. Matt Gaetz, right, meets constituents

CBS News

We should know that about everyone not just the president, Gaetz replied.

President Trump was also a prime topic in New Jersey, home to Republican Congressman Leonard Lance.

I would like to know what you plan to do when he makes delusional statements one attendee asked at a town hall event.

When I believe the president hasnt spoken the truth, I will give my point of view, Lance responded.

The challenge for Republicans: how strongly to defend the president when theyre already dealing with Democratic anger over plans to repeal Obamacare.

Protesters gathered outside Congressman Dave Reicherts Washington State office on Thursday, and laid into Arkansas Sen. Tom Cotton Wednesday night.

My husband with dementia, Alzheimers, multiple other things, and you want to stand there with him at home and expect us to be calm, cool and collected? Well, what kind of insurance do you have? one woman asked Cotton.

A woman grills Sen. Tom Cotton about health care at a Wednesday town hall

But the uprisings from coast to coast have not swayed Republicans like Cotton or Gaetz when it comes to a top GOP priority.

I will fight with every fiber of my being to repeal Obamacare in 2017, Gaetz said.

Former House Speaker John Boehner, a Republican, was skeptical about that on Thursday. At a speech in Florida he said Republicans have never been able to agree on how to replace the Affordable Care Act and at the end of the day are more likely to tweak it than repeal it.

2017 CBS Interactive Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Here is the original post:
Republicans wrestle with how much to defend Trump when facing protests at home - CBS News

President Donald Trump, in fulfilling what was one of his most consequential campaign promises, said earlier this month that his administration is preparing to repeal and replace Obamacare by the end of March.

Obamacare is a disaster folks, its a disaster. Were doing Obamacare. Were in the final stages.So we will be submitting sometime in early March, mid-March, Trump told reporters Feb. 16 during his first solo White House news conference.

But the task ahead is a daunting challenge, as Republicans on Capitol Hill are reportedly grappling with what a new plan might entail.

Michael Cannon, director of health policy studies at the Cato Institute, a libertarian think tank in Washington, D.C., told TheBlaze during an exclusive interview Thursday that Republicans are not only grappling with the issue, but that they are also confused about what Senate rules will allow them to repeal, having just a simple majority.

Theres a lot of confusion about Senate rules regarding what they have the votes to do about whether the plan theyre talking about right now would actually repeal Obamacare or just sort of rename it, Cannon said.I believe the House is operating under this presumption the Senate requires 60 votes to repeal the ACAs regulations so the House is proceeding under the assumption they wont be able to repeal those regulations.

Cannon cited House Speaker Paul Ryans plan, which he called Obamacare lite. But, as Cannon noted, he isnt the only one calling it that.

I would say that the Republican establishment position is that theyre going to keep parts of Obamacare. I dont think Obamacare lite is what we should do, Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) said during a Feb. 15 interview with Fox News host Neil Cavuto.

Idaho Republican Rep. Raul Labrador used the same phrase while referring to top Republicans reported plan to replace the health care overhaul.

Im hearing a lot of members say that they want Obamacare lite, Labrador said Jan. 31 during a Bloomberg interview.

Thats not what we promised the American people. Im very concerned about the things Im hearing in the conference because theyre different than the things Ive heard over the last six years, Labrador added.

Cannon said that Republican leadership is discussing keeping in place core provisions of Obamacare, such as requiring everyone in a particular insurance pool to pay the same premium regardless of the individual risk they pose, taxpayer subsidies for health care insurers and perhaps even the individual mandate that requires all Americans to buy health insurance or pay a penalty.

Cannon said that Republicans wouldnt impose a penalty on uninsured Americans exactly how Obamacare does but that, instead, tax credits would be offered to the millions of insured Americans while uninsured Americans would be ineligible for the same credits. That, according to Cannon, is the same sort of financial penalty as is imposed under the current law.

But what Republicans are planning, Cannon said, is to get rid of many of the Obamacare taxes, such as taxes on premiums, certain medical devices, health insurance companies and high earners who receive Medicare. Those sources of revenue could all be gone if top Republicans have their way.

But Cannon said that model likely wont work if Republicans end up keeping many of the subsidies and tax credits.

So I dont think that approach really has legs. I think theyre going to try that until they realize that doesnt work, Cannon told TheBlaze.

Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.) agreed. During an interview with The Hill back in December, he said,There needs to be some source of revenue.

Cannon pointed to a Congressional Budget Office analysis from last year, when Republicans were attempting to repeal Obamacare, which found that repealing the taxes in Obamacare without getting rid of or altering its tax credits and subsidies could have catastrophic effects.

It would essentially destroy the individual market, Cannon said.

On the other hand, if Republicans do decide to keep Obamacares taxes to pay for the credits and subsidies, it could very well be political suicide.

For six years, Republicans campaigned on repealing Obamacare. In 2014, after taking back control of both the House and Senate, Republicans made multiple attempts to repeal what many consider to be former President Barack Obamas signature domestic achievement. All of this,not to mention the numerous promises Trump made throughout the 2016 election cycle to repeal and replace Obamacare on day one.

And to add insult to injury for Republicans, at least one recent poll suggested that a growing number of Americans oppose repealing Obamacare.

A Politico/Morning Consult poll released before Trump took office in January found that just 41 percent of voters approved of Obamacare, while a majority 52 percent disapproved. Now, only one month into Trumps presidency, the same poll conducted a second time found that the country is evenly divided, with 45 percent saying they approve of Obamacare and 45 percent saying they disapprove.

The recent uptick in public support, however, hasnt stopped a number of other Republicans from continuing to advocate for the laws repeal.

Its going to happen, Rep. Michael Burgess of Texas told the Daily Signal Thursday. What [the 2015 bill] demonstrated to me was that if you got the right president in the White House, you could send that bill back down to the other end of Pennsylvania Avenue, and you could repeal large pieces of the Affordable Care Act.

Burgess was referring to a bill, passed by both the House and Senate last year, which Obama later vetoed. The legislation aimed to repeal parts of Obamacare, including Medicaid expansion, the medical device tax and the so-called Cadillac tax for expensive plans, according to Politico.

Tim Phillips, president of the conservative group Americans for Prosperity, also said Republicans would be mistaken to go back on their promise.

Obamacare repeal has been litigated in four consecutive national elections, and the result has been the most devastating losses for the Democratic Party since the 1920s. The greatest peril for Republicans in Congress will be if they break their word,Phillips said, according to Real Clear Politics.

FreedomWorks, another conservative grassroots organization, is slated to hold a rally March 15 in Washington, D.C. where they will urge lawmakers to keep their campaign promises. Texas Republican Sen. Ted Cruz is scheduled to attend that event.

Will conservatives attempts to remind Republican lawmakers of their repeated promises to repeal and replace Obamacare actually work, though?

It might, Cannon told TheBlaze, but it looks like Republicans are determined to exhaust every alternative first.

Continued here:
Republicans 'grappling' with whether to keep Obamacare 'core provisions' - TheBlaze.com