Mediaboss Marketing

The Republicans' time-crunched effort to pass a health-care bill is hitting a lot of resistance in the Senate. The Post's Paige Cunningham explains five key reasons the party is struggling to move their plan forward. (Jenny Starrs/The Washington Post)

THE MORNING PLUM:

With the Republican campaign to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act now set to enter its final, frenzied push, the Indianapolis Star reports that the Indiana GOP attempted a stunt that was supposed to provide Republicans with more ammunition against the law. But the stunt went awry:

TheIndiana Republican Partyposed aquestion to Facebook on Monday: Whats your Obamacare horror story? Let us know.

The responses were unexpected.

My sister finally has access to affordable quality care and treatment for her diabetes.

My fathers small business was able to insure its employees for the first time ever. #thanksObama

Love Obamacare!

The only horror in the story is that Republicans might take it away.

By 8:30 a.m. Tuesday, the Indiana GOPs postcollected more than 1,500 comments, the vast majority in support of Obamacare.

As David Nather points out, this reveals that the energy in this battle right now is on the side of those who want to save the Affordable Care Act. But, while the rate of pro-ACA postings should obviously not be taken as a scientific indicator of public opinion, this episode also neatly captures another larger truth about whyit is proving so hard for Republicans to repeal the law: It has helped untold numbers of people, and the GOP bill would largely reverse that.

This is admittedly a simple and obvious point, yet the extraordinary lengths to which Republicans are going to obscure this basic reality continue to elude sufficient recognition. If you think about it, pretty much every major lie that President Trump and Republicans are telling right now to get their repeal-and-replace bill passed is designed to cover it up.

The Washington Post and the New York Times have published two excellent pieces that debunk most of the leading GOP lies and distortions of the moment on health care. The Post piece looks at a series of White House claims. They include exaggerated assertions about Obamacare premium hikes (that dont take into account subsidies that ease costs for lower-income people) and gamed statisticsabout the number covered by the ACA (that dont take into account the enormous coverage gains achieved by the Medicaid expansion). Most insultingly of all, the White House is criticizing Obamacare because 29 million Americans currently remain uncovered. The spectacularly dumb argument here is actually that Obamacare is failing because it hasnt succeeded in achieving universal coverage, so we should embrace a GOP bill thatwould leave nearly 50 million uncovered in 10 years.

Meanwhile, the Times piece looks at a bunch of claims by congressional Republicans. Among them: The dopey, dissembling, nonsensical assertions that the GOP bill somehow keeps the Medicaid expansion and that Medicaid spending actually goes up (the GOP bill phases out the ACAs federal contributions to the expansion and dramatically cuts Medicaid spending relative to current law, which would leave 15 million fewer covered by that program). And some Republicans are actually blaming Obamacare for the fact that some remain uncovered by the Medicaid expansion in states where GOP governors didnt opt into it.

All of these lies and distortions, in one way or another, are meant to obscure two basic realities: The ACA, for all its problems, is actually helping millions and millions of people, and the GOP bill would undo much of those gains.This would not be necessary, if Republicans were willing to forthrightly defend their actual policy goals and the principles and priorities underlying them.

Interestingly, moderate Republican senators are in factacknowledging the priorities embedded in the GOP plan when they criticize it for trying to roll back the help that the ACA is giving to millions and millions of poor people in order to finance huge tax cuts for the rich. But you dont see many congressional Republicans who support the bill admitting to its most basic features, or defending them with an argument as to why its projected consequences would be worth the bills trade-offs. Instead, these realities are buried under piles of horse manure aboutsmooth glide paths and rescue missions and bridges to better health care and soft landings and all the other claims recounted above about how the ACA doesnt do what it actually does and how GOP bill wouldnt actually do what it is intended to do.

* COLLINS: PEOPLE ARE THANKING ME FOR OPPOSING GOP BILL: GOP Sen. Susan Collins of Maine tells The Post that she was showered with gratitude while walking in a July 4 parade:

I heard, over and over again, encouragement for my stand against the current version of the Senate and House health-care bills. People were thanking me, over and over again. Thank you, Susan! Stay strong, Susan!'

And yet note that even here, Collins is still giving herself wiggle room to support the final bill by claiming she merely opposes the current version.

* GOP SENATORS DUCK JULY 4 PARADES: Interestingly, a number of GOP senators who are under heavy pressure to oppose the health bill skipped local July 4 parades:

Shelley Moore Capito [of West Virginia] released a YouTube message but had no public events for the day. The Republican senator next door in Ohio, Rob Portman, had none either. Nor did the two Republican senators in Iowa. The parades in Colorado proceeded without Senator Cory Gardner.

Note that all of those states opted into the Medicaid expansion, which the GOP bill would phase out. Still, Sens. Capito and Portman have public events in coming days, so watch for those.

* GOP SPLIT OVER HOW TO SOFTEN HEALTH BILL: CNN reports that Republicans will be battling this week over whether to restore one of Obamacares taxes on the rich:

A still looming, very real fight that will be coming when they return: whether to repeal the 3.8% investment tax in Obamacare or not. This is not at all settled, but sources tell CNN this is something that wont be dealt with until Congress returns to Washington.

As Ive reported, restoring this tax would not put a serious dent in the GOP bills coverage loss, and much of its tax relief for the rich would remain. Yet conservatives oppose even this.

* REPUBLICANS LAUNCH HEALTH CARE ADS, WITH A CAVEAT: Politicos Morning Score reports:

The National Republican Senatorial Committee is launching digital ads targeting all 10 Democrats up in states won by President Donald Trump next year linking them to Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren and the Democratic push for single-payer health care. The 15-second ads feature Warren saying single-payer is the next step before noting how frequently a Senator votes with Warren before directing viewers to sign a petition against single-payer. The ads are backed by significant statewide buys, and will run throughout recess and the rest of July.

But as Democratic operative Jesse Ferguson points out: Pretty telling that they arent running ads attacking Dems for opposing their health care plan, eh?

* DESPITE TRUMPS BOASTS, AUTO INDUSTRY SLOWS DOWN: The New York Times reports that auto industry sales are slowing and its workforce is shrinking, two trends that are likely to continue:

The decline signals at least a pause in Detroits resurgence from the dark days of the financial crisis, which General Motors and Chrysler survived only through bankruptcy andbailouts. Its happening despite President Trumps promises to pressure automakers to save and create good-paying American factory jobs.

Ignore this Fake News, Trump supporters.Trump will likely save a few isolated jobs somewhere soon and hold a big presser to tout all the winning.

* 44 STATES HAVE REFUSED REQUEST FOR VOTER DATA: CNN tallies it up:

Forty-four states have refused to provide certain types of voter information to the Trump administrations election integrity commission, according to a CNN inquiry to all 50 states.

This might make it more difficult for Trumps voter suppression oops, voter fraud commission to carry out its mission. Sad!

* AND HUGE MAJORITY DISAPPROVES OF TRUMP TWEETS: Amid Trumps latest lunatic tweets, Axios publishes a new Survey Monkey poll findingthat 64 percent of Americans disapprove of Trumps tweeting. But only 38 percent of Republicans disapprove:

Not only do most Republicans approve of his use of Twitter, but asked to describe those tweets, the No. 1 mention among the GOP is truthful, with entertaining in second place.

There you have it.This is why the presidential tweeting will continue.

Read more from the original source:
A GOP stunt backfires, and accidentally reveals a truth Republicans want hidden - Washington Post (blog)

Here's a brewing irony for Senate Republicans: If they have a near-perfect run in 2018 races, they could get close to the coveted filibuster-proof majority of 60 out of 100 seats.

There are 10 Senate Democrats running for reelection in states President Trump won, while Republicans, who currently have a 52-seat majority, only have one or two vulnerable candidates.

But Republicans have struggled to recruit top candidates in these Trump states. Alack of a clear leader is leading to a bunch of lower-tier candidates jumping into the race, which means Republicans could spend the next year in potentially expensive (and, in some cases, divisive) primaries in some key states.

This isn't the end of the world, but it's not a perfect start for a perfect run for Republicans.

It's a trend we noticed in April that is still going on today, with news that Rep. Ann Wagner (R-Mo.) will not challenge one of the Democrats' most vulnerable senators up for reelection in 2018, Claire McCaskill (Mo.).

A similar dynamic is playing out in these Trump states where Senate Democrats are trying towin reelection next year, such as:

In Wisconsin, Rep. Sean P. Duffy (R) decided not to run to challenge Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D). There are at least six possible GOP candidates who could try to challenge Baldwin.

[Wisconsin Republicans put Trump over the top. Now they're trying to prove it wasn't a fluke.]

In Indiana, Rep. Susan Brooks (R) decided not to run against Sen. Joe Donnelly (D), possibly the most vulnerable Senate Democrat. Her colleagues, GOP Reps. Luke Messer and Todd Rokita, do look like they'll run, and they've already started attacking each otherin pretty dramatic ways, like accusing the other of planting negative storiesor making unhinged comments.

In Pennsylvania, Rep. Patrick Meehan (R) decided not to run against two-term Sen. Robert P. Casey Jr. (D). Now there are at least four Republicans who have launched campaigns, from state representatives to a real estate developer and an energy executive. Pennsylvania Republicans tell National Journal they'd feel better about the race if either U.S. Reps. Lou Barletta or Mike Kelly decided to run. (Both have said they're thinking about it.)

In West Virginia, a state Trump won by more than 40 (!) points, U.S. GOP Rep. Evan Jenkins is running to try to unseat Sen. Joe Manchin III (D). But a super PAC recently jumped into the race in favor of likely GOP candidate Attorney General Patrick Morrisey and attacked Jenkins as a Manchin mini me.

In Ohio, state Treasurer Josh Mandel (R) is the leading candidate to challenge two-term Sen. Sherrod Brown (D). But a wealthy investment banker and GOP donordecided to run, too.

And Montana Republicans lost their top recruit, Ryan Zinke, after Trump picked him to be his interior secretary. Attorney General Tim Fox (R) also said no thanks to challenging two-term Sen. Jon Tester (D), which has left the state auditor as the biggest name among half a dozen potential candidates.

Finally, in North Dakota, Republicans don't have a candidate yet to challenge Sen. Heidi Heitkamp (D), another state Trump won by double digits (20 points).

Basically, Democratic operatives point out, there are Republican primaries in nearly every competitive Senate race right now.

What's going on here? A few things:

In many of these states, if the Democrat could be unseated, it's possible Republicans could hold the seat for a long time. And the more likely your party is to win a race, the more likely on-the-fence candidates are to jump in.

But that doesn't explain why some top recruits in these states said no. Everyone has different reasons (Duffy in Wisconsin has eight kids, Zinke in Montana took a Cabinet appointment instead). But if any of these races were an easy win, you'd think more experienced politicians would say yes to getting in.

That more haven't suggests:

1) It's not going to be as easy as the numbers suggest to take down some of these Senate Democrats, many of whom won tough races in 2012 in red-leaning states and have been in office for almost a dozen years.

2) There could be a Trump factor weighing heavily against Republicans' calculations. History tells us the party in power generally loses seats in the next congressional midterm; more so if the president is unpopular. And pretty much since he took office, Trump has been the least-popular president in modern times.

3) The longer Republicans in Congress go without a legislative win, the harder it is for them to sell their candidacy on a state level. Republicans need to pass a health-care bill they can sell. They'd like to get tax reform done, too. Right now, they have not doneany of that.

4) A few closer-than-expected special elections in Georgia, Kansas and Montana for Republicansraise the possibility that the Democrats' base is fired up in a way it wasn't in past congressional elections. (Though Republicans won all of the elections.)

November 2018 is still a year-and-a-half away, so there's no rule that Senate candidates have to get in right now. And primaries aren't the end of the world; sometimes they make the candidates who emerge stronger.

Plus, Republicans argue, Democrats don't have especially stellar recruits in their two key races. U.S. Rep. Jacky Rosen (D-Nev.) just won a congressional seat in Nevada and is going to challenge Republican Sen. Dean Heller; Democrats have no one in Arizona to challenge Republican Sen. Jeff Flake.

But since we're going to spend the next 489 days trying to assess which opposing force is stronger in the 2018 Senate midterms Senate Democrats' vulnerability in Trump statesor Trump's unpopularity let's plant an early flag and say that, so far, Trump's unpopularity appears to be weighing on Senate Republicans.

Read the original post:
Do Senate Republicans have a Trump recruiting problem? (Part 2) - Washington Post

MSNBC

Some Republicans give up on the idea of an 'Ayn Rand utopia' MSNBC A core tenet of Republican ideology in recent years is the belief that no tax should go up on anyone, at any time, by any amount, for any reason. GOP officials' unflinching commitment to this idea has created all kinds of governance problems, but not ...

Link:
Some Republicans give up on the idea of an 'Ayn Rand utopia' - MSNBC

Assembly Republicans say the prospect of iPhone maker Foxconn bringing as many as 10,000 jobs to Wisconsin is among the issues in the states current budget standoff which could affect funding for a freeway project south of Milwaukee, where the company reportedly is eyeing building sites.

Assembly GOP leaders, in a memo made public Wednesday, also urge business groups to offer their own ideas to resolve the impasse over the states next transportation budget.

In a section of the memo called Effect of Delays on Economic Development, Assembly Republicans say Foxconn has indicated its desire to locate in southeastern Wisconsin with up to 10,000 jobs.

That marks the first time high-level state officials have publicly acknowledged the possibility of Foxconn, a Taiwanese iPhone maker, locating in the state.

The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel has reported that Foxconn has inquired about building sites in Pleasant Prairie. The partially completed Interstate 94 North-South project runs through that area, running from the Illinois state line to the Milwaukee area.

Gov. Scott Walkers budget proposal would provide $31 million for the project in the next two years, far less than the nearly $270 million that would be needed to keep the project on its current construction schedule.

Assembly Speaker Robin Vos, R-Rochester, said in a brief interview Wednesday that he has not talked directly to Foxconn officials. But Vos said there are economic development programs all over the state. The one that everybody seems to say has the most potential, that the president mentioned, is this Foxconn.

President Donald Trump, in a public visit to the Milwaukee area last month, said just backstage we were negotiating with a major, major incredible manufacturer of phones and computers and televisions, and I think theyre going to give (Gov. Scott Walker) a very happy surprise.

Vos said: They (Foxconn) are going to want good access to three things: a favorable tax climate, good workers and a good transportation system.

The one thing thats lagging in the three legs of the stool is finding a way to sufficiently fund our transportation system, Vos said.

The company has discussed spending up to $10 billion in the United States to build iPhones and televisions. Wisconsin and other Midwestern states are under consideration for the location.

The offices of Walker and Senate Majority Leader Scott Fitzgerald, R-Juneau, did not immediately respond to requests for comment late Wednesday.

Assembly Republicans last week, in an effort to resolve the state budget impasse, floated the idea of collecting a new fee on heavy trucks in Wisconsin. But a group of conservative state senators and industry groups, including the state business lobby, Wisconsin Manufacturers & Commerce, dubbed that idea a nonstarter.

Wednesdays memo from Assembly Republicans urges those groups to offer their own proposals to fund state road projects. Disagreement among statehouse Republicans on that issue is central to the budget debate, causing lawmakers last week to blow past a July 1 deadline to enact a new budget.

Vos said Assembly GOP leaders feel like theyve been negotiating with themselves instead of with Senate leaders and Walker.

To our colleagues in the Senate: Im done putting out ideas for you to reject. So how about if you come up with some ideas and well take a look at those? Vos said.

WMC said Wednesday it welcomes Assembly Republicans offer. The group also said, WMC is pleased that the punitive tax on heavy trucks appears to be dead.

Any discussion of revenue increases must include meaningful reforms to reduce costs and spend our current resources more wisely, said Scott Manley, a spokesman for the group.

Continued here:
Assembly Republicans: iPhone manufacturer eying Wisconsin for plant site linked to state budget debate - Madison.com

Republican senators have had to decide whether public appearances would be fruitful or the crowds hostile. Many lawmakers seem to have given up on town hall-style meetings and parades. Others are still braving them, knowing they may get an earful on the health care bills.

Never before, in the 15 times that Ive marched in this parade, have I had people so focused on a single issue, Senator Susan Collins of Maine, who rejected the latest version of the bill, said in an interview shortly after walking the parade route in Eastport, Me. I think its because health care is so personal.

On Tuesday, Ms. Collins and the few other Republican senators who ventured out most of them opponents of the current bill, and most in rather remote locales were largely rewarded with encouragement to keep fighting.

This may be promising for other senators who are not planning to stay in all week. Ms. Capito has public events set for the coming days. The delay in voting on the Senate bill, which Ms. Capito strongly rebuffed, has taken some of the heat off, though activists in West Virginia said signs had been readied for Tuesdays parades just in case.

Other Republicans will soon be out and about, and some already have been. Senator Bill Cassidy of Louisiana was met with chants of Vote no! in a Baton Rouge church on Friday as he discussed the states recovery from the 2016 floods. Senator Jerry Moran of Kansas will hold three town hall-style meetings this week in the western part of the state, and Senator Charles E. Grassley of Iowa has scheduled nine as part of his annual tour of the states 99 counties. Senator Patrick J. Toomey of Pennsylvania is holding a televised meeting on Wednesday, albeit with an invitation-only audience.

While the receptions they receive may vary, judging by those in the streets on Tuesday, the primary subject will not.

Health care! Health care! Health care! Hilary Georgia, a part-time resident of Eastport, cried as Ms. Collins passed the spectators in camp chairs unfolded before neat wooden houses.

Eastport, which is recognized as the easternmost city in the United States, draws a large and festive crowd on Independence Day, even though it is remote. So is Wrangell, Alaska, where Senator Lisa Murkowski, another key Republican in the health care debate, took part in a parade on Tuesday as well.

There was no escaping politics, however. The reception for Ms. Collins was one of gratitude and fulsome thanks for her disapproval of the Senate bill, mixed with some anxiety over whether she would stick to her position.

Im still concerned because I know it keeps getting revised, said Kristin McKinlay, 44, an independent voter who is worried that a new bill could leave her without health insurance and stopped Ms. Collins to introduce herself because she had called the senators office so many times. I hope we have her commitment.

At a late-morning parade in Ely, a small city in northern Nevada surrounded for miles by only sagebrush and juniper trees, Senator Dean Heller, who has come out against the bill, rode down Aultman Street on a horse.

Get in line behind Trump! one man shouted, while an older man offered, Thanks for protecting Medicare! Generally, however, things remained subdued in Ely perhaps in part because, as several people along the parade route said, residents were just surprised to see Mr. Heller there.

This was still more activity than anything done by Mr. Gardner of Colorado, who has not held a town hall-style meeting this year. Coloradans have noticed. In February, hundreds gathered for a mock town hall-style meeting in Denver, where they addressed questions to a cardboard cutout of the senator. Last week, wheelchair-bound constituents occupied his office for 60 hours in protest of cuts proposed in the health bill, before being dragged out by the police.

Mr. Gardners Fourth of July was devoid of public events, though on July 3, he could be seen on his front lawn in his hometown, Yuma, playing with squirt guns and smoke bombs with his children.

This was as combative as his holiday was likely to get. Even though one in four residents of Yuma County receives Medicaid assistance, and many would probably lose their health care coverage under the Senate bill, those who disagree around Yuma tend to keep quiet.

I wanted to say something so bad, let him know what I thought, said a woman on a nearby porch, who gave her name only as Edna and identified herself as a 76-year-old lifelong Republican. She said several people in her family would lose coverage if the Affordable Care Acts expansion of Medicaid were rolled back, but when she ran into Mr. Gardner with his grandmother at the Yuma Days dance at the local high school a week ago, she let it drop.

I went to school with his aunt, Edna said. I see his mom and dad daily. We are all friendly. Am I going to boo at him in front of his grandmother in her wheelchair?

There is also the question of whether talking to ones senators, much less yelling at them, will make much of a difference anyway, a pessimistic thought on a day celebrating the ideals of self-government.

I think theyve got their priorities mixed up, said Connie Christiansen, standing on the lawn of her familys house in Shell Rock, Iowa, having watched as Boy Scouts, tractors, ATVs and musicians but no United States senators passed by.

If she saw Mr. Grassley, she said, she would tell him to retire. She had simply forgotten about Iowas other senator, Joni Ernst.

Ms. Christiansen called her 25-year-old cousin, Maggie Cain, over with a question: What do you think about talking to senators?

I feel like it wouldnt really make a difference, Ms. Cain replied.

See? Ms. Christiansen said. It doesnt make a difference how young you are. You feel the same. Helpless.

An earlier version of this article incorrectly reported that Senator Rob Portman, Republican of Ohio, had no public events on July 4. Mr. Portman marched in two parades.

Campbell Robertson reported from Alderson; Dave Philipps from Yuma, Colo.; Jess Bidgood from Eastport, Me.; and Emily Cochrane from Shell Rock, Iowa. Kim Raff contributed reporting from Ely, Nev.

A version of this article appears in print on July 5, 2017, on Page A1 of the New York edition with the headline: With Voters Riled, G.O.P. Senators Lie Low.

Go here to see the original:
Senate Republicans Lie Low on the Fourth, or Face Single-Minded ... - New York Times