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In September 2021, Texas governor Greg Abbott boldly claimed that his states barbaric abortion law, which banned the procedure after six weeks of pregnancy with no exceptions for incest or rape, was not actually as bad as it sounded because he was going to eliminate rape. Rape is a crime and Texas will work tirelessly to make sure that we eliminate all rapists from the streets of Texas by aggressively going out and arresting them and prosecuting them and getting them off the streets, Abbott said, in all seriousness.

Not surprisingly, Abbott did not eliminate rape. But nine months after his absurd attempt to explain why it was perfectly reasonable to force sexual assault victims in his state to carry their pregnancies to term, the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, and a whole bunch other states also banned abortion without exceptions. And guess what? Rapeand rape that resulted in pregnancykept happening in those places too.

Just how many people have been raped and impregnated in states where, thanks to politicians like Abbott, the law prohibits them from terminating the pregnancy? According to a study published in JAMA Internal Medicine, an absolutely staggering number:

In the 14 states that implemented total abortion bans following the Dobbs decision, we estimated that 519,981 completed rapes were associated with 64,565 pregnancies during the four to 18 months that bans were in effect. Of these, an estimated 5,586 rape-related pregnancies (9%) occurred in states with rape exceptions, and 58,979 (91%) in states with no exception, with 26,313 (45%) in Texas.

The study, which was led by the medical director at Planned Parenthood of Montana, also revealed that 10 or fewer legal abortions occurred monthly in each of the total abortion ban states, which indicates that persons who have been raped and become pregnant cannot access legal abortions in their home state, even in states with rape exceptions. Which, of course, is exactly what the politicians who championed, voted for, and signed these abortion bans wanted. As JAMAs editors write in a note about the study, Whether these survivors of rape had illegal abortions, received medication abortion through the mail, traveled to other states, or carried the child to birth is unknown.

In which a male Republican claims to be an expert on womens health care because he was a vet

Thousands of words, all the best words

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In States Where Republicans Banned Abortion With No Exception for Rape, Rape Led to 58979 Pregnancies Post-Roe - Vanity Fair

The National Republican Congressional Committee has sought to tie Hochuls budget to Suozzi, a moderate who is running for the Queens and Long Island district he once held and left vacant by the expulsion of Republican George Santos.

Tom Suozzi needs to answer whether he agrees with Hochuls budget cuts to schools in order to clean up their border crisis, NRCC spokesperson Savannah Viar said in a statement. Extreme Democrats like Suozzi are the reason were in this mess to begin with.

State-level policies have been successfully wielded in recent election cycles by Republicans in key races. The tactic has been a frustrating one for Democrats, especially those running in House races where the office being sought has little to no impact on the decisions of state government.

But the attacks have worked: GOP House candidates in 2022 successfully blasted criminal justice policies approved in Albany, including a controversial law that ended cash bail requirements for many criminal charges.

Republicans are defending four seats flipped that year on Long Island as well as in the Hudson Valley two areas of the state that concerns over migrants and school funding could be especially persuasive for suburban voters.

Cutting school aid which could happen if Hochul gets her way to recraft the distribution formula is one of the third rails of local politics. The school funding fight was an unexpected wrench in Democrats hopes of a relatively quiet year in Albany in a critical election year.

Its an effective attack because the suburbs always believe New York City is screwing them, Democratic consultant Hank Sheinkopf said. New York City is getting everything and theyre getting nothing. Its a clear example for a lot of people, and the Republicans will be able to use it.

And the Feb. 13 special election between Suozzi and Republican candidate Mazi Pilip will be an early show of strength for either party in the bellwether suburbs.

Suozzi, in a brief interview, called the attack political talk.

People are sick and tired of the politics, he said. People are sick and tired of fighting. Stop with the BS.

In a statement, Suozzis campaign called for a compromise between Republicans and Democrats to strengthen border security. He blamed the federal government for having dropped the ball on immigration putting our state and local governments in an awful position.

New York Democratic Chair Jay Jacobs, an ally to both Suozzi and Hochul, doubted the Republican criticism would work or that the message would land with voters.

Its what you would expect, and I think the Republicans ought to work a little harder and come up with things that are more relevant with what you do as a member of Congress, Jacobs said in an interview. I think voters are too sophisticated. They know nonsense when they see it.

GOP House candidate Mazi Pilip is knocking more funding for migrants in the state budget and potentially less for schools. | Adam Gray/Getty Images

Suozzi has sought to lay out a plan to address the influx of migrants, including support for border security measures and funding immigration enforcement agencies like ICE. His campaign this week released a TV ad highlighting his support for stronger immigration enforcement.

Suozzis campaign, in response, also pointed to discrepancies in Pilips federal and county financial disclosure forms. Senior advisor Kim Devlin said it raised serious questions about a lack of vetting by Republicans. Pilip campaign spokesperson Brian Devane called the attacks a mischaracterization.

And Democrats are also quick to point out the nuance of Hochuls budget a wide-ranging and complicated fiscal plan.

Her budget would raise education spending overall by more than $800 million, but also changes how the state sends direct aid to school districts by taking enrollment reductions into account. The move would lead to $167 million in spending cuts to more than half of the states 673 school districts.

The additional $500 million in spending for the migrant crisis, which part of a $2.4 billion plan that includes money for emergency shelters and legal services, is coming from a surplus pot of money unrelated to school aid.

Hochul has defended the proposal as necessary, given the outdated way in which schools are funded by the state. Many of the schools impacted have millions of dollars in surplus accounts.

For us to be wed to the same formulas based on population from 2008 without adjusting for either need or population increase or decrease simply doesnt make sense, she told reporters last week.

On Thursday, Hochul again blasted Republicans.

The truth is on our side. Tom Suozzi is speaking the truth about whats going on, she told reporters. Again, its politics. Its a shame theyre distorting the truth, but thats par for the course with Republicans.

Democratic state lawmakers have rebuked the school funding plan and have urged her to reverse it. A final budget is not due until April 1.

Still, the approach has frustrated Democrats in Washington and Albany given the high stakes of the election year. Some Democrats hoped Hochuls agenda this year would, at worst, have no impact on the key House races for the party.

All the more awkward is the past animosity between Hochul and Suozzi, who left his House seat in 2022 to run against the governor unsuccessfully in a Democratic primary. Both Democrats publicly set aside their differences late last year before Suozzi launched his bid for his old seat.

But Suozzis campaign is not the only one to face questions over Hochuls budget.

Republican Reps. Anthony DEsposito, Nick LaLota, Mike Lawler and Marc Molinaro have all blasted the proposals and pounded their opponents.

Alison Esposito, the Republican challenging Democrat Pat Ryan in the Hudson Valley, accused Hochul of putting the needs of New Yorkers second to migrants.

If she truly wanted to fix the migrant crisis, she would have ended New Yorks sanctuary status, instead our students are paying the price of her failures, her campaign said in a statement.

Ryan, a first-term lawmaker whose seat is a target to flip this year, pointed to a range of immigration and border security proposals hes backed with GOP lawmakers, but have been bottled up by House Republican leadership.

Its cynical, disappointing, and everything thats wrong with American politics, he said. Its time to come together as patriots, put country ahead of party and deliver for the Hudson Valley.

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Why Hochul's budget is a headache for Suozzi - POLITICO

Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene, the Georgia Republican and die-hard ally of former President Donald J. Trump, was exasperated with her colleagues as she left the House floor last Thursday evening.

I dont know if its sunk in this place around here, Ms. Greene vented as she headed for the elevators and then for Manchester, N.H., where she was stumping for the former president. Ive been telling everyone that President Trump is the leader of the Republican Party; hes going to be our presidential nominee. Its time for all Republicans to get behind his policies.

If it hadnt sunk in yet, it has now.

After Mr. Trump won the New Hampshire primary by 11 percentage points on Tuesday night following his steamrolling victory in the Iowa caucuses, the small segment of Republicans in Congress who had tried to distance themselves from him, ignore him, cast doubt on his staying power or condemn him have begun swiftly falling into line behind him. And this time, it is happening even faster than it did in 2016, when Mr. Trump first subsumed his party.

In the Senate, at least 29 Republicans more than half the conference have now endorsed Mr. Trump, compared with zero for the lone Republican challenger still standing, former Gov. Nikki Haley of South Carolina, who vowed on Tuesday night to carry on with her campaign despite outlining no clear path to victory.

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After Early Primary Victories, Republicans in Congress Fall in Line Behind Trump - The New York Times

New York Attorney General Letitia James accused Trump, his sons Don Jr. and Eric, the Trump Organization, and other company executives of fraudulently inflating the value of various real estate assets to get more favorable terms on bank loans. The judge presiding over that trial, Arthur Engoron, determined in September that Trump indeed committed fraud and ordered that all Trumps New York business certificates be canceled, making it nearly impossible to do business in the state and effectively killing the Trump Organization.

But even though Trump isnt worth as much as he claims, because his sworn statements put his value so high, he could end up owing Carroll a massive amount in damages. Her minimum of $10 million is already on the low end. Carrolls expert witness Ashlee Humphreys, a Northwestern University marketing professor who analyzes social media trends, testified last week that the price to repair the harm caused by Trumps defamatory comments could be as high as $12.1 million. And that doesnt even include punitive damages.

Trump already owes Carroll $5 million in damages after a jury in May unanimously found him liable for sexual abuse and battery against Carroll in the mid-1990s and for defaming her in 2022 while denying the assault.

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Trump's About to Win This NominationAnd Top Republicans Have Gone Mum - The New Republic

If the results of the New Hampshire primary tell us anything, it is that the Republican Party is facing a divide between the two key voter groups it needs to win in November its partisan base and the voters most likely to tip the general election, independents.

There are two ways of looking at the final results of the primary one that gives us some insight on the remaining primaries and Trumps advantage and one that sheds light on the general election and Haleys advantage.

First, the rest of the primary season. Tuesdays primary election was a clear victory for the former president, one that has put him on the trajectory to winning the Republican nomination. Overall, he won the state by 11 percentage points, 54 percent to 43 percent (with 95 percent of votes in), and performed well, based on the Edison Research preliminary exit poll results (updated at 10:30 a.m. Eastern Standard Time on Wednesday), with key groups that will make up the critical component of future primaries.

Trump won voters who identified as Republicans 50 percent of the primary electorate by a large margin, 74 percent to 25 percent. Conservative voters made up 67 percent of the electorate; Trump won them, 71 percent to 27 percent. In terms of education, Trump won voters without a college degree a group that comprised 52 percent of the overall vote by a margin of 67 percent to 31 percent.

Finally, white evangelical or white born-again Christians went for Trump 70 percent to 26 percent. His level of performance with these groups certainly bodes well for Trump in the upcoming primaries.

Take South Carolina, for example, the next big primary state after Nevada. In the 2016 primary, the electorate was 81 percent conservative and 67 percent were white evangelical or born-again Christians. Haley has her work cut out for her in her home state.

Still, Trumps New Hampshire victory was closer than expected. The RealClearPolitics average on Tuesday showed him leading Haley by 19 percentage points. The last three polls in the RCP average going into the primary, however, showed the average lead at 24 points. The final results fell short of that.

Now looking at the general. For Haley, her performance overall in New Hampshire outpaced expectations and she was the clear winner with key voter groups critical in going beyond the Republican base to win the general election. Haley handily won independents, who made up 44 percent of the electorate, by 58 percent to 39 percent. Similarly, moderates, 28 percent of the electorate, voted for Haley by 72 percent to 25 percent.

She also won voters with college Bachelors degrees or higher by 56-42 percent, a group that plays an important role in the general election.

Haleys strength with independents would bode well for the general election and the party. In the last couple of elections, Republicans have struggled to win these voters. In 2018, Republicans lost them by 12 points, 42 percent to 54 percent, which cost Republicans the House. In 2020, Trump lost Independents by 13 points, 41 percent to 54 percent, and the White House.

In 2022, Republicans lost Independents by two points, 47 percent to 49 percent, the reason the expected red wave didnt happen, despite a historic party identification advantage of plus-3 percentage points over Democrats. To win this November, Republicans also need to do better with moderate voters who Trump lost in 2020 by 30 points, 34 percent to 64 percent, and who Republicans lost by 15 points in 2022.

Analyzing the primary voters top four issues, we see a similar dichotomy between the candidates, with Trump stronger in the primaries, while Haley showed a potential advantage in the general. The top issue for Republicans was the economy (40 percent) followed by immigration (37 percent). Among those who said immigration, Trump won them 86 percent to 14 percent, and among the economy voters, he won them 67 percent to 33 percent.

For independents, the top issue was the economy, at 36 percent, with immigration at 23 percent. Like Republicans, independents who chose immigration went with Trump by 67 percent to 31 percent. However, Haley won independents who chose the economy, by 54 percent to 40 percent.

The exit poll also asked whether voters would be satisfied or dissatisfied if Trump won the nomination and asked the same question for Haley. Overall for Trump, 61 percent said satisfied and 38 percent said dissatisfied. For Haley, it was 51 percent satisfied and 47 percent dissatisfied.

Among Republicans, the result for Trump was 80 percent satisfied and 19 dissatisfied, while for Haley it was 41 percent satisfied and 57 dissatisfied. This is clearly an advantage for Trump in the upcoming primaries but perhaps not for the general.

Asked about Trump, 45 percent of independents said they would be satisfied, but 54 percent said they would be dissatisfied. On the other hand, 61 percent said they would be satisfied with Haley and 37 percent dissatisfied. Once again, we see a divide that gives Trump an advantage in the primaries but Haley with a potential stronger standing in the general election.

Going forward, both candidates have challenges. The exit poll asked voters if they would still find Trump fit to be president if convicted. Overall, 54 percent said yes and 42 percent said no.

There was a clear difference, however, between Republicans and independents on this question.

Among Republicans, 72 percent said yes and 26 percent said no. Of those who said yes, Trump won them, 91 percent to 9 percent. In contrast, only 38 percent of independents said yes, while 58 percent said no. This result strongly suggests that for the primary environment, this issue is less challenging for Trump, but clearly could be quite problematic in the fall.

While outperforming expectations, for Haley, losing New Hampshire by double digits still was a loss. At some point, she has to put a win on the board. The fact that voters who decided their vote in January representing 41 percent of the vote, including the majority of independents went for Haley, 64 percent to 33 percent, is a positive for her. Haleys clear challenge is to turn her recent momentum into more than just closing the gap.

The bottom line is that both candidates have positives and negatives coming out of the New Hampshire primary. Trump, having now won both Iowa and New Hampshire, is in a strong position; however Haley did close the gap.

For the party, holding the base while reaching out to independents must be job one.

David Winston is the president of The Winston Group and a longtime adviser to congressional Republicans. He previously served as the director of planning for Speaker Newt Gingrich. He advises Fortune 100 companies, foundations and nonprofit organizations on strategic planning and public policy issues, as well as serving as an election analyst for CBS News.

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For Republicans, two outcomes from the New Hampshire primary - Roll Call