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President Trump unveiled his tax plan on April 26, after months of pledging to make drastic changes to the tax code. The Post's Damian Paletta explains why tax reform is so complicated. (Jenny Starrs/The Washington Post)

With the first major legislative effort of the Trump presidency in tatters, there are more than a few Republicans who will be only too happy to have the effort to repeal the Affordable Care Act in their rear-view mirror they never cared all that much about health care as an issue, and they eventually realized that the whole thing was going to be a political disaster for them. Even more importantly, having the issue resolved (so to speak) allows them to move on to what they really want to do: cut taxes.

There are some good reasons to look at the coming tax reform push and see how it could suffer the same fate that health-care reform did. But I dont think it will. Before I explain why, lets consider the case for why tax reform might fail.

The primary stumbling block is the lack of Republican unity on the issue. Its important to keep in mind that tax reform and tax cuts are not the same thing. What Republicans want to undertake isnt just some cuts, its a complete overhaul of the tax system. Theres a reason this happens only once every few decades and takes years to negotiate: Its incredibly complicated and inevitably results in lots of powerful interests at odds with one another. Republicans often complain about the complexity of the tax code, but it didnt get so long because socialist Democrats kept coming up with new ways for bureaucrats to control your life. The tax code is long because it has been written in large part by special interests, especially corporations, shaping it to suit their needs.

How is it that hugely profitable companies such as ExxonMobil and General Electric often get away with paying little to no federal taxes? Its because they employ armies of lobbyists who sculpt the tax code to make sure they dont. Now it comes time for reform, and what are those companies going to do? Theyll say, Hey, reform sounds like a great idea. But lets just make sure we dont touch these loopholes. Now multiply that by 1,000.

Then youve got the fact that Republicans just arent very good at this whole legislating thing, as weve become so aware. As effective as they were at building a wall of opposition to the Obama administration, theyre not nearly as good at doing affirmative things. While many of us thought that complete government control would produce an orgy of legislating, they havent managed to pass a single consequential bill in six months.

And theyre not getting the help they need from the White House. The president is a buffoon who cant be bothered to learn either the substance of policy or enough about Congress to act as a positive force in the negotiations, and the White House staff is caught up in a gruesome civil war of endless leaks and backstabbing.

All that suggests that reform is likely to fail. But why might it succeed? Or, to think of it another way, why is it so different from health care?

The first reason it might succeed is that even if the public isnt clamoring for tax cuts, neither will they be threatened as profoundly by the GOP effort on taxes as they were when it came to the ACA. A big tax cut may be bad policy, but ordinary people wont feel that its going to do something as drastic as take away their health coverage or even kill them. Whatever activism that rises up in opposition to it is unlikely to have even a fraction of the intensity that the effort against ACA repeal did. Which means that members of Congress wont feel as if their jobs are on the line if they vote for the eventual bill, even if it does favors only for the rich and corporations.

The second reason tax reform will be different is that, unlike on the ACA, Republicans will have some backup. That was one of the striking features of the health-care debate: Republicans were completely alone. Their bills were opposed by doctors, by hospitals, by insurers, by patient advocates, by pretty much everyone in the health-care world. That lack of allies made it much harder to make their case and persuade wavering members.

But that wont happen with tax reform. In fact, theres a mobilization underway to support the GOP effort. Lets look at some reports from the last few days:

So Republicans will be getting all kinds of outside help as they round up support for whatever they come up with, even if deciding on the particulars of their bill will be difficult.

But most important is this: Republicans really, really want to cut taxes for the wealthy and corporations. There is not a single policy goal that is more important to them. This is what they come to Washington for. If they do nothing else with their time in control of Congress and the White House, they will do this.

That doesnt mean itll be easy. There will be conflicts among business interests about the details. But theres another difference between tax reform and health care: When the going gets tough, theres a fallback plan. Republicans can set aside that complex reform that overhauls the entire system, and just cut the corporate tax rate and some personal tax rates bring down income taxes, maybe get rid of the inheritance tax, toss in a couple of other goodies for the wealthy, and theyre done. Theyve already dropped the idea of a border adjustment tax, because while some Republicans wanted it, it proved too divisive. Manufacturers might have liked it, but retailers were opposed, and arguing about it for the next year was a miserable prospect.

You could easily see the same thing happening to every controversial provision Republicans consider it runs into some opposition from one interest group or another, and they say, Okay, forget it. The result is a stripped-down bill that still retains its heart: blessed relief for our suffering wealthy and corporations. For Republicans, that will be more than enough.

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Why Republicans may succeed at tax reform where they failed at health reform - Washington Post

FILE - In this Tuesday, July 25, 2017, photo, Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine is surrounded by reporters as she arrives on Capitol Hill in Washington, before a test vote on the Republican health care bill. Collins, who was one of three Republican senators voting against the GOP health bill on Friday, July 28, said she's troubled by Trump's suggestions that the insurance payments are a "bailout." (AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite, File)

Leading Senate Republicans said Monday it was time to move from health care to other issues, saying they saw no fresh pathway to the votes needed to reverse last week's collapse of their effort to repeal and rewrite the Obama health care law.

"For now, until we have a path forward that gets us 50 votes in the Senate, we've got other things to do and we're going to start turning to those," No. 3 Senate GOP leader John Thune told reporters.

"It's time to move onto something else, come back to health care when we've had more time to get beyond the moment we're in," said Sen. Roy Blunt of Missouri, another member of the GOP leadership. "See if we can't put some wins on the board" on bills revamping the tax system and building public works projects, he said.

The lawmakers spoke after last week's stunning crash of the GOP's drive to tear down President Barack Obama's 2010 health care law and replace it with their vision of more limited federal programs.

While the leaders stopped short of saying they were surrendering on an issue that's guided the party for seven years, their remarks underscored that Republicans have hit a wall when it comes to resolving internal battles over what their stance should be.

No. 2 Senate GOP leader John Cornyn of Texas signaled pique at White House budget chief Mick Mulvaney, who pushed senators in weekend TV appearances to keep voting on health care until they succeed.

Mulvaney has "got a big job, he ought to do that job and let us do our jobs," Cornyn said. He also said of the former House member, "I don't think he's got much experience in the Senate, as I recall.

Despite Mulvaney's prodding and weekend tweets by President Donald Trump insisting senators revisit the issue, even the White House's focus turned Monday to a new horizon: revamping the tax code.

White House legislative director Marc Short set an October goal for House passage of a tax overhaul that the Senate could approve the following month. Plans envision Trump barnstorming the country to rally support for the tax drive, buttressed by conservative activists and business groups heaping pressure on Congress to act.

On health care last week, Republican defections led to the Senate decisively rejecting one proposal to simply erase much of Obama's statute. A second amendment was defeated that would have scrapped it and substituted relaxed coverage rules for insurers, less generous tax subsidies for consumers and Medicaid cuts.

Finally, a bare-bones plan by Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., rolling back a few pieces of Obama's law failed in a nail-biting 51-49 roll call. Three GOP senators joined all Democrats in rejecting McConnell's proposal, capped by a final thumbs down by Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz.

Republican, Democratic and even bipartisan plans for reshaping parts of the Obama health care law are proliferating in Congress. They have iffy prospects at best.

Republicans can push something through the Senate with 50 votes because Vice President Mike Pence can cast a tie-breaking vote.

But GOP prospects for reaching 50 seemed to worsen after McCain returned to Arizona for brain cancer treatments. His absence for the next two weeks, before the Senate begins it recess, probably denies leaders their best chance of turning that vote around.

Rather than resuming its health care debate, the Senate began considering a judicial nomination Monday.

In the House, 43 Democratic and Republican moderates proposed a plan that includes continuing federal payments that help insurers contain expenses for lower-earning customers. It would also limit Obama's requirement that employers offer coverage to workers to companies with at least 500 workers, not just 50.

But movements by House centrists seldom bear fruit in the House, where the rules give the majority party ironclad control, and Speaker Paul Ryan, R-Wis., offered little encouragement.

"While the speaker appreciates members coming together to promote ideas, he remains focused on repealing and replacing Obamacare," said Ryan spokeswoman AshLee Strong.

Trump has threatened anew in recent days to cut off the payments to insurers, which total $7 billion this year and are helping trim out-of-pocket costs for 7 million people.

Those payments to insurers have some bipartisan support because many experts say failing to continue them or even the threat of doing so is prompting insurers to raise prices and abandon some markets.

Obama's statute requires that insurers reduce those costs for low-earning customers. Kristine Grow, spokeswoman for the insurance industry group America's Health Insurance Plans, said Monday that halting the federal payments would boost premiums for people buying individual policies by 20 percent.

"I'm hopeful the administration, president will keep making them," Thune said. "And if he doesn't, then I guess we'll have to figure out from a congressional standpoint what we do."

Hoping to find some way forward, health secretary Tom Price met with governors and Louisiana Republican Sen. Bill Cassidy. Among those attending was Republican Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey, who's been trying to defend his state's expansion of Medicaid, the health insurance program for poor people, against proposed GOP cuts.

Cassidy and Sens. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., and Dean Heller, R-Nev., have proposed converting the $110 billion they estimate Obama's law spends yearly for health insurance into broad grants to states.

___

Associated Press writer Bob Christie in Phoenix, Arizona, contributed to this report.

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Republicans say time for Senate to move on from health care - WJLA

Mike Pence and Donald Trump. Photo: Jabin Botsford/The Washington Post/Getty Images

If Trumps poll numbers were above 50 percent, Republican consultant Alex Conant complains to the New York Times, health-care reform would have passed. Instead, hes spent more time responding to cable-TV chatter than rallying support for his agenda. That is an odd way to look at the Republican Partys problems. While President Trump may be unpopular, he is much less unpopular than the Republican health-care plan, which a large segment of his base despises. There is nothing of appeal in the plan to sell: Since it would scale back features that people approve of, such as Medicaid expansion and protections for people with preexisting conditions, drawing more attention to its features would do more harm than good. Indeed, the complaint might have it backward if Trump had not attached himself to a morbidly unpopular proposal, he might have higher approval ratings. But the backwardness is indicative of the desire of nervous Republican Party regulars to shift the blame for their partys emerging failure away from those who formulated it and onto the president.

There are now clear signs that Republican regulars, who reluctantly accepted Trump and hoped to make the best of it, have cast their eyes on the exit signs already. It can be seen in Congress, where both houses passed a Russia sanctions bill against the presidents will and apparently without his knowledge, and where one member of Congress in a meeting of House Republicans recently shocked the room by calling the president unhelpful. (The shock is that he said in a large group setting something Republicans had previously whispered in confidence.)

And it can be seen in the conservative elite, which is seizing upon disarray within the administration as a sign that the president has betrayed the conservative agenda, or perhaps soon will. By firing [Reince Priebus], Trump has severed a critical connection to his own party, writes Tim Alberta. The fear now, among Republicans in his administration and on Capitol Hill, is that Trump will turn against the party, waging rhetorical warfare against a straw-man GOP whom he blames for the legislative failures and swamp-stained inertia that has bedeviled his young presidency. Commentary editor John Podhoretz calls the health-care debacle the necessary end result of seven months in which the president of the United States ate up all the oxygen in Washington with his ugly, petty, seething, resentful rages and foolishnesses as expressed in 140 illiterate characters.

For all the scandal and dysfunction surrounding Trump, it played little role in the failure to repeal Obamacare. The effort foundered on its own contradictions. Republicans had promised both to repeal the hated law and to replace it with something that gave everybody better coverage for less cost, and without raising taxes. Republicans never have and never could devise a plan fulfilling these conditions. Yes, a normal Republican president might have sold the plan more effectively. On the other hand, a normal Republican president might also have had some policy objectives, which would have constrained the menu of options available to Congress. Trump was and is willing to sign anything. Congress simply cannot pass anything.

The broader notion that Trump has broken away from party dogma likewise suffers from a total absence of supporting facts. It is true that many of the presidents confidantes have little roots in Republican politics. Of Trumps closest advisers, only Mike Pence has any association with the Republican Party, writes Alberta. But that exception is an important one, because Mike Pence has enjoyed almost total control of the agenda. Policy issues will largely fall under Vice-President Pences portfolio, reports the Washington Post.

Policy is a pretty big portfolio. And so while unconservative figures like Ivanka Trump may be in charge of leaking self-flattering details, and Anthony Scaramucci may be tasked with rooting out all the non-Ivanka leakers, and Jared Kushner may have the Middle Eastpeace/government-makeover/try-to-stay-out-of-prison portfolio, Trumps positions fall into the hands of a die-hard conservative.

On every question where Trump has had to make a choice, he has bent not only toward party orthodoxy, but toward the most militant faction within the party. Steve Bannon has for months floated the possibility of a small tax hike on the rich, which would indeed be a political masterstroke. But Bannons idea has gone nowhere. Other Trump staffers have shot it down. Even Trump himself denied reports he might raise the top income-tax rate. That was not right. That was not a correct statement, he told the Wall Street Journal.

Rather than concede defeat on Obamacare, as many Republicans quietly prefer, he has intensified his wild vindictive sabotage campaign. Trump did not remain in the Paris climate accords, but instead has outsourced environmental policy to an oil-industry cutout who picks fights with climate scientists. He has sided with the House Freedom Caucus on transgender soldiers, and even, astonishingly, on the threats of a shutdown or a debt default. Trump may not have a coherent ideology, but this is because hes a simpleton, and his instinctive need for dominance is routinely manipulated toward the end of maximal partisan confrontation.

Trump has stuck to his campaign promises to give law enforcement a free hand. He has abandoned the promise to build a trillion dollars in new infrastructure. It is hard to think of a single substantive choice he has made that would have differed from one made by a President Ted Cruz. The Republican Party may be preparing to abandon Trump. Curiously, Trump has shown no sign of abandoning them.

Special Counsel Robert Mueller already signaled that hes looking into the Trump teams disclosures about the meeting.

Anthony Scaramucci and Eric Trump were among the targets.

Scaramuccis hiring was a Trump-style shock to Washington, but his White House career was over before it even began.

Its been a long way down for Joe Arpaio since he lost reelection last year. And now hes been convicted of contempt of court, and could be jailed.

The 2024 Games go to Paris and the U.S. gets its first Olympics since the 2002 Winter Games in Salt Lake City.

Obamacare is alive, and Anthony Scaramuccis job is dead.

The U.S. has frozen the leaders assets, but stopped short of undertaking broader economic sanctions.

Negotiating a delicate new phase in U.S.-Russian relations.

RIP, Mooch. We hardly knew ye.

The move reportedly came at the insistence of new chief of staff John Kelly.

An investigation into the question plaguing the country.

The famous immigrant-baiter and vote-suppressor is running for governor, but certain moves by Trump could mean Kobachs future is in D.C.

The military man will try to implement order with the help of Ivanka Trump and Jared Kushner.

A presidency rides conservative dogma all the way to the bottom.

A look back at the New Jersey governors recent humiliations.

Page Six recently spotted them on a double date.

As she struggles to make a dent in her fathers agenda, Ivanka wants people to lower their expectations of her.

The recently elected Greg Gianforte was sentenced to 40 hours for assaulting a reporter.

MTA Chairman Joe Lhota said Sunday that the transit agency will shut down more lines overnight.

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Republicans Might Abandon Trump, But Trump Is Not Abandoning Them - New York Magazine

Sen. Jeff FlakeJeff FlakeMcConnell faces questions, but no test to his leadership Senate Republicans brush off Trump's healthcare demands Flake: Republicans in denial about Trump MORE (R-Ariz.) on Monday saidthe Republican Party is in denial about President Trumps first few months in office, calling for members of the GOP to speak out against some of the leader'srhetoric and policies.

First, we shouldnt hesitate to speak out if the president plays to the base in ways that damage the Republican Partys ability to grow and speak to a larger audience, Flake wrote in an op-ed for Politico Magazinethat quickly gained attention online.

Second, Republicans need to take the long view when it comes to issues like free trade: Populist and protectionist policies might play well in the short term, put they handicap the country in the long term.

Third, Republicans need to stand up for institutions and prerogatives, like the Senate filibuster, that have served us well for more than two centuries, Flake added.

The Arizona senator, who is up for re-election in 2018, reasoned that conservatives are partially responsible for Trumps rise due to their focus on former President Barack ObamaBarack ObamaCourt tells EPA to enforce Obama methane pollution rule Flake: Republicans in denial about Trump Overnight Tech: House GOP asks companies for input on net neutrality legislation | Charter declines Sprint deal | Group wants probe into Google shopping tool | Ex-Obama adviser joins Lyft board MORE rather than advancing a conservative policy agenda.

It was we conservatives who, upon Obamas election, stated that our number-one priority was not advancing a conservative policy agenda but making Obama a one-term presidentthe corollary to this binary thinking being that his failure would be our success and the fortunes of the citizenry would presumably be sorted out in the meantime, Flakecontinued.

The Arizona Republicanhas previously criticized Trump -- for his initial travel ban proposal in January for example -- and on Monday again slammed the administration for its rhetoric about Russias election meddling.

Even as our own government was documenting a concerted attack against our democratic processes by an enemy foreign power, our own White House was rejecting the authority of its own intelligence agencies, disclaiming their findings as a Democratic ruse and a hoax, Flake said. Conduct that would have had conservatives up in arms had it been exhibited by our political opponents now had us dumbstruck.

The senator, who recently said Republicans who dont call Trump out are complicit, said the GOP has been in denial this year. Congresshas so far failed to successfully pass healthcare legislation, while the administration has been forced to deal with multiple staff shake-ups and struggled with the rollout of its travel ban.

To carry on in the spring of 2017 as if what was happening was anything approaching normalcy required a determined suspension of critical faculties. And tremendous powers of denial, Flake said.

Flake, who has a new book out, appeared on Fox News Monday night.

"The White House has done some good things," Flake told host Bret Baier, citing the nomination of Supreme Court Justice Neil Gorsuch and regulatory reforms.

"We've got tax reform to go through," he added. "That's going to be a big lift. I don't think its as difficult as healthcare reform, but it is difficult" and will require a "very disciplined administration and Congress" to get it done.

"I think we've about reached the limits of what we can do with one party," on healthcare, he said. "I think we're going to have to involve the other party."

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Flake: Republicans in denial about Trump - The Hill

But Mr. Hayes said that while a strong majority of Republican voters adored Mr. Trump, there are creeping doubts about other administration advisers. Mr. Hayes said that Mr. Scaramuccis interview with The New Yorker magazine, in which he savaged several White House colleagues in sexually graphic terms, had shocked Republicans in his state.

How does that help us get health care and tax reform and rebuilding the military? Mr. Hayes said.

Gov. John Kasich of Ohio, a Republican who has been critical of Mr. Trump, echoed that sentiment, saying meaningful policies will emerge from the White House only when the chaos in the administration abates. He said he was uncertain whether the shake-up of the senior staff would have that effect.

Youll have optimism within the White House when they start having stability, Mr. Kasich said.

Among the presidents legislative allies in Washington, too, there is a deepening sense of dread that presidential tweets like the out-of-the-blue ban on transgender people serving in the military and continuing chaos inside the West Wing will get in the way of efforts to lower taxes, crack down on immigration, overhaul trade policies and rethink the countrys foreign policy.

The administration is having a hard time getting out of its own way, said Ira Mehlman, a spokesman for the Federation for American Immigration Reform, which was angry about the presidents criticism of Mr. Sessions. The seeming disarray in the White House obviously makes it hard for the administration to carry out its policies.

Joseph A. Trillo, a former Republican National Committee member from Rhode Island who was chairman of Mr. Trumps campaign in the state, faulted others for the White House disarray and chalked up any missteps to Mr. Trumps newcomer status in Washington.

Hes made some mistakes, Mr. Trillo said of Mr. Trump. He didnt have political experience, and I think some of the biggest mistakes are some of the people he has surrounded himself with.

The turbulent phase appears to have taken its toll on Mr. Trumps popularity, even among those in his own party. Though Republicans are strongly supportive of him over all, public polls have shown dissatisfaction on the right with his personal demeanor and Twitter habits. On Friday, a Gallup tracking poll found Mr. Trumps job approval rating was 39 percent.

Inside Washington, the reservations run even deeper. Some veteran Republican lobbyists are increasingly skeptical that the president has built a team capable of making good on his promises. At the end of a week in which the party failed in its promise to repeal former President Barack Obamas health care law, one Washington lobbyist, who did not want to be identified as being critical of the president, said he and others were frustrated, appalled and scared.

The concern, the lobbyist said, is that without sustained White House leadership the kind that is in short order complicated legislation like a tax overhaul or rolling back banking regulations will not be accomplished.

Andrew Roth, the chief lobbyist for the Club for Growth, a group that fiercely advocates lower taxes, expressed optimism that Republicans would succeed, and he said that some of Mr. Trumps economic advisers were working effectively in spite of the chaos.

But Mr. Roth acknowledged that two things could get in the way: Distractions being caused by a White House that is still in a transitional phase and a dysfunctional Republican Party in Congress that includes too many liberals.

It is well past time that people recognize that there are far too many Democrats in the Republican Party, Mr. Roth said.

Republicans are hardly despondent across the board about the seemingly listless pace of change in Washington. In addition to the confirmation of a new Supreme Court justice, Neil M. Gorsuch, they take heart from the list of business regulations Mr. Trump has voided, and from his administrations aggressive enforcement of immigration laws.

Jay Timmons, the president and chief executive of the National Association of Manufacturers, a powerful business lobby, said he was optimistic Republicans would enact major legislation around taxes, infrastructure investment and more.

Theres a lot going on that has been beneficial to the business community, Mr. Timmons said, acknowledging that there had also been distractions from the partys main agenda. That doesnt mean that progress and success is still not occurring.

Still, Republican activists and party officials described the Senate health care vote, held in the early hours of Friday morning, as a bitter disappointment, and several spoke in caustic language about the three Republican lawmakers who blocked the bill Susan Collins of Maine, John McCain of Arizona and Lisa Murkowski of Alaska.

The sharpest frustration, however, came from Trump loyalists who described Congress as having failed to accommodate Mr. Trump and his agenda more broadly or even as taking a deliberately oppositional posture toward a president of their own party.

I blame everything on Congress, and most of the people I talk to feel the same way, said Rex Early, an Indiana businessman who led Mr. Trumps campaign in the state. Id like to see him take on Congress, but I think he feels that he has to get along with them, and hes probably right.

Mr. Trump has occasionally berated Republican members of Congress, and on Wednesday rebuked Ms. Murkowski on Twitter for having let the Republicans, and our country, down with her position on health care. On Friday, Mr. Trump stopped short of criticizing the health care holdouts by name, but lamented in a speech on Long Island that the swamp had prevailed over his agenda, for now.

But some of his supporters would like to see Mr. Trump go further, and a number of activists and Republican candidates called on Mr. Trump to take a harder line with members of his own party.

Corey Stewart, a conservative immigration activist in Virginia who nearly captured the partys nomination for governor this year, encouraged Mr. Trump to take the fight more aggressively to intransigent Republicans.

Hes been remarkably patient, said Mr. Stewart, who has announced that he will run for Senate in 2018. I think he needs to play a little bit more rough with the Republican establishment in the House and Senate.

Mr. Stewart, too, said that there were aspects of the presidents conduct that appeared unproductive, like his public feud with Mr. Sessions.

This stuff would be better solved behind closed doors, Mr. Stewart said.

But other supporters said that after six months with Mr. Trump in office, they do not expect a change in his behavior and many do not want one.

Pam Bondi, the attorney general of Florida and a strong Trump supporter, suggested the onus was on Congress to catch up with Mr. Trump. President Trump is ready and waiting for them to act, Ms. Bondi said, referring to the health care issue.

Congress should beware, she added, our president will not give up on doing whats right for the American people.

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Republicans Worry That White House Disarray Is Undermining Trump - New York Times