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Nicole Gaudiano and Deborah Barfield Berry, USA TODAY Published 11:37 a.m. ET Dec. 10, 2017 | Updated 6:18 a.m. ET Dec. 11, 2017

Sen. Richard Shelby told CNN's Jake Tapper that he didn't vote for GOP candidate Roy Moore in the special election. Instead, he says he chose a write-in candidate.

Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Doug Jones talks with the media as he visits his campaign call center in Huntsville, Ala. on Thursday December 7, 2017.(Photo: Mickey Welsh, Daily Advertiser-USA TODAY NETWORK)

WASHINGTON Whatever the outcome of Tuesdays special Senate election in Alabama, Republicans will need a lot of Tylenol.

Either they lose the race to Democrat Doug Jones, diminishing their52-seat Senate majority and making it easier for Democrats to compete for it in 2018. Or, they get an entirely different headache with former state Supreme Court Justice Roy Moore, who will face an immediate ethics investigation ofallegations that he sexually abused several teenagers including a 14-year-old when he was in his 30s.

The race is tight, with most polls showing Mooreslightly ahead.

There is no good outcome for Republicans, said Josh Holmes, former chief of staff for Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky. The best they can hope for at this stage is that the pain ends sooner rather than later. If he wins, having a divisive figure like Roy Moore with the seriousness of the allegations that have been brought against him as a member of your conference in the Senate is a concerning development for every senator. Losing is potentially putting the Senate majority at risk in 2018.

Moore denies the allegations against him and has refused McConnell and other Republicans calls to withdraw from the race. A far-right, anti-establishment wildcard, Moore doesnt hesitate to fire back at party leadership he called on McConnell to step down, instead or attract media attention with controversial statements.

Twitter erupted lastweek, for instance, when a former Obama administration official retweeted a story about Moores September comment that America was great when families were united. Even though we had slavery, they cared for one another.

More: GOP deeply divided over Republican Roy Moore in the Alabama Senate race

More: For Roy Moore, even victory in Alabama Senate race may not be the end of his struggles

More: Trump won't stump for Roy Moore in Alabama but he will some 20 miles away in Florida

As chief justice of the statesupreme court, Moore got in trouble for refusing to remove a marble monument of the Ten Commandments from a state building, and for later directing probate judges to enforce the states ban on same-sex marriage after it was deemed unconstitutional.

Jennifer Duffy, a senior editor at the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, predicted that if Moore wins, hell spend much of his time on Fox News, throwing live grenades like bowling balls down the center aisle every day.

Alabamas Republican candidate for Senate, Roy Moore, cannot seem to get out of his own way. Buzz60

Duffy said Moore could have the same effect on the GOP as Todd Akin, the Missouri Republican who lost his 2012 bid after saying pregnancy could be prevented by a woman involved in a "legitimate rape" because "the female body has ways to try to shut that whole thing down.

Akinbecame a virus that spread to other campaigns, she said. Thats what Moore has the ability to do in a cycle that already looks pretty hard for them.

Matt Mackowiak, a Republican consultant based in Texas, agreed a Moore win could be a burden for his GOP Senate colleagues. He said senators worryabout having to respond to controversial things he says, and about the impact on midterm elections, particularly for vulnerable Republicans.

This puts a lot of senators in a tough spot, Mackowiak said.

Democrats have already begun using Moore in their attacks against vulnerable Republicans. The partys campaign arm in the House began sending out news releases lastweek, calling on targeted Republicans to disavow Moore and refuse support from the Republican National Committee, after President Trump endorsed him and the RNC resumed funding his campaign.

Alabama voters are getting a recorded phone call of President Donald Trump saying he needs Republican Roy Moore in the U.S. Senate. The recording includes Trump saying progress on his agenda will be "stopped cold" Democrat Doug Jones is elected. (Dec. 11) AP

The Republicans have accepted it, just as they accepted President Trump, who admitted to outrageous things, violating women, said Sen. Patrick Leahy, D-Vt., a reference to a 2005 Access Hollywood tape, in which Trump brags on a hot mic about groping women.

Moore won the GOP primary for U.S. Attorney General Jeff Sessions former Senate seat without the backing of Trump or McConnell, who both supported Sen. Luther Strange. McConnell and other Republicans called on Moore to step aside after the allegations broke, but Trump announced support for Moorelast week, saying we dont want to have a liberal Democrat in Alabama, believe me. On Friday, Trumpurged Alabamans attending his rallyin Pensacola, Fla. about 20 miles from the Alabama border to "get out and vote for Roy Moore."

A Jones victory would be a big win for Democrats, who need three additional seats to win the Senate majority in 2018. That wont come easy, given theyre defending 10 seats in states Trump won and other pickup opportunities appear limited, at this point, to Arizona and Nevada.

If Alabama was in the D column, if they had a really good day in November, they could pick up the Senate, Holmes said. Its almost impossible for them to do that without Alabama. But with Alabama, the possibility is brightened.

Political observers agree that if Moore wins, hell face a hostile environment in the Senate. GOP leaders have acknowledged they cant stop Moore from being seated, but they said he will immediately face an ethics investigation.

Sen. Cory Gardner of Colorado, chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, told the Weekly Standard on Thursday, Roy Moore will never have the support of the senatorial committee. We will never endorse him. We wont support him. I wont let that happen.

Sen. Jeff Flake, R-Ariz., who is not seeking re-election, tweeted a picture of a check he wrote to Jones campaign.

Of Moore, Flake told USA TODAY, I just hope he doesnt win.

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Alabama race a no-win proposition for Republicans

And it was passed along sharply partisan lines, offering nothing to Democrats, and leaving them with no obligation or incentive to negotiate cuts to Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security, the entitlement programs that are driving up spending, but are also the pride of the Democratic Party.

For his part, Mr. Trump spent his campaign promising not to cut Medicare and Social Security. And Republicans will probably find, as they did when they failed to repeal the Affordable Care Act, that the public rises up to defend the programs they are trying to cut. Whatever political boost the Republicans could get for passing a tax cut could evaporate fast.

Republicans are going to find that Democrats treat this tax bill the way Republicans treated Obamacare its not trusted by people on the other side of the aisle, said former Senator Judd Gregg, who was chairman of the Budget Committee and a member of the Simpson-Bowles commission, a bipartisan group of lawmakers and budget experts that produced a deficit reduction plan in 2010. It will become a target, a rallying cry, which is unfortunate, because good tax reform, when done right, is not only good for the economy, its good for the parties.

Many of the Republicans natural allies have criticized the bill for adding to the deficit and not dealing with the costs that were already driving up the governments red ink. In an op-ed in The Washington Post, the leaders of that 2010 commission, former Senator Alan Simpson of Wyoming, a Republican, and Erskine Bowles, a Democrat who is a former White House chief of staff, accused the Republicans of deficit denial, saying the bill incorporated only goodies and virtually no hard choices.

Republicans have been telling themselves for years that they wanted to get into power so they could balance the budget, reduce the debt, cut spending and fix entitlements, Ms. MacGuineas said. Theyve just made it harder, not easier.

For weeks, Democrats and their allies have been accusing Republicans of a two-step deceit, warning that they would cut taxes now and then use the increase in the deficit they caused to demand entitlement cuts later.

When you run up the deficit, your next argument will be, Gee, youve got a large deficit, Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont, a former Democratic presidential candidate, said in an interview.

Now Republicans are beginning to acknowledge as much. Mr. Ryan said at a town hall-style meeting last month that Congress had to spur growth and cut entitlements to reduce the national debt.

The Republican tax plan, he said grows the economy. But, he added, weve got a lot of work to do in cutting spending.

Senator Marco Rubio of Florida was more specific on Wednesday, telling business leaders that the tax cuts were just the first step; the next is to reshape Social Security and Medicare for future retirees.

The argument would be we cant cut taxes because it will drive up the deficit, he said, saying that he disagreed. You have to do two things, he said. You have got to generate economic growth because growth generates revenue. But you also have to bring spending under control. And not discretionary spending. That isnt the driver of our debt. The driver of our debt is the structure of Social Security and Medicare for future beneficiaries.

The Congressional Budget Office projects that spending on Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid will cost the federal government $28.6 trillion through 2027. The tax cut, estimated at nearly $1.5 trillion, makes the problem only mildly worse.

But if that trillion-dollar boost to the governments yawning fiscal hole is comparatively small mathematically, it could add up to much more politically if it keeps Democrats away from the negotiating table.

And even if Republicans do not pursue changes to entitlements, the tax bill will trigger pay-as-you-go requirements that Congress cut spending. That would be a particularly big hit to Medicare, which would face a $25 billion cut for the current fiscal year. Groups like AARP, the lobby for older Americans, warn that it would force doctors and hospitals to turn away patients because reimbursements would be cut so drastically.

Mr. Ryan and Senator Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, the majority leader, released a statement Friday saying that the so-called pay-go cuts will not happen because Congress would waive the law, as it has in the past. But they will need Democratic votes to do that, in a climate that is unusually partisan.

Regardless of whether Republicans can waive these cuts, David Certner, legislative counsel for AARP, said, You know theyre going to come back and say, We need to make more cuts to deal with the growing debts and deficit.

Some deficit hawks complain that Republicans have cast away any mantle of fiscal responsibility.

Robert L. Bixby, the executive director of the Concord Coalition, a nonpartisan organization that encourages fiscal responsibility, complained of hypocrisy from Republicans who have been clamoring to lift the spending caps that were created by the 2011 Budget Control Act.

If the tax cuts do not generate the revenue Republicans are expecting, he predicted, people will say, No, were not getting the growth because we should have cut taxes even more.

The United States is already facing a gloomy fiscal landscape. The federal deficit this year topped $660 billion, despite healthy economic growth, and the national debt now exceeds $20 trillion. Janet L. Yellen, the outgoing chairwoman of the Federal Reserve, appointed by President Barack Obama, warned last week that the national debt is the type of thing that should keep people awake at night.

But Democrats and their allies and even some usual Republican allies complain that Republicans are dishonest not to debate changes in spending and tax cuts at the same time, as the Simpson-Bowles commission did.

Sharon Parrott, a senior fellow at the left-leaning Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, said Republicans understood how bad it would look to cut food benefits for poor families and health care for the elderly at the same time they were cutting taxes for corporations and the highest earners.

Theres a reason they separate them, she said. They think they can get away with it.

But in an election year with high political engagement, she said, I think its wrong to count out the idea that the public will figure it out.

An article in the Dec. 3 edition of The New York Times inaccurately quoted Senator Marco Rubio of Florida. He said the driver of the federal debt is Social Security and Medicare but did not specify instituting structural changes.

See the article here:
Heading Toward Tax Victory, Republicans Eye Next Step: Cut ...

The Senate bill would cut the corporate tax rate to 20 percent from a top rate of 35 percent. For individuals, it would make tax cuts temporary and create seven income tax brackets, with a bottom rate of 10 percent and a top marginal rate of 38.5 percent, down from the current rate of 39.6 percent.

Representative Kevin Brady of Texas, the Republican chairman of the Ways and Means Committee, said that he felt encouraged that the two chambers would be able to align their bills but that the House would not simply pass the Senate legislation.

For as much common ground as we have, there are some areas where we are taking different approaches that will be worked, and can only be worked out, in a conference, Mr. Brady said.

Lawmakers are also awaiting a report from the Joint Committee on Taxation that would show the effects of the proposed tax cuts on the economy. That analysis is important, since it will indicate the extent to which the cuts will bolster growth and avoid adding to the deficit. Outside analysts expect the assessment to demonstrate that the Senate bill does not create nearly enough growth to generate revenues to offset those lost via tax cuts, essentially undermining Republicans claims that the bill would pay for itself.

Mr. Corker, who has voiced the loudest concerns about the bills effect on the deficit, said on Tuesday that he received assurances that the final legislation would include a mechanism to avoid ballooning the debt, which has passed $20 trillion. While the exact details were not specified, the bill is expected to include some type of trigger that would require certain taxes to increase if the package does not generate as much revenue as projected.

I think weve come to a pretty acceptable place, from my standpoint, said Mr. Corker, who has stated that he would be unable to vote for the bill if it added to the federal deficit.

That trigger, however, could complicate the bills passage. Several other Republican lawmakers, including Mr. Brady and Senator John Kennedy of Louisiana, are resistant to the idea of including a trigger that would increase taxes.

Im not too keen on automatic tax increases, Mr. Kennedy said. Im just not too excited about this idea of automatically tying our hands.

Americans for Prosperity, the conservative group backed by Charles G. and David H. Koch, also blasted the idea, calling a trigger mechanism antithetical to the principles of the unified tax framework that lawmakers have proposed.

There is no consensus among economists about the amount of growth that would occur under the plan, but key models predict it would not cover its cost.

Other holdouts, like Mr. Johnson, appear to have been swayed by admonishments or assurances. Mr. Johnson objected to the bill on the grounds that it did not do enough to help so-called pass-through businesses, which pass their income on to their owners.

During lunch with Mr. Trump, the president chastised Mr. Johnson over objections he raised in the meeting, telling the senator at one point, Come on, Ron, according to a person familiar with the discussion who declined to be identified because the event was not public.

Mr. Johnson voted for the bill on Tuesday, telling reporters: The good news is, everybody agrees its a problem, it has to be fixed. I just keep getting assurances its going to be fixed. I just want to see how.

Other Republican senators who have been skeptical of the tax bill also appeared ready to back it.

Ms. Collins, who has not yet thrown her support behind the bill, said that she felt more optimistic about the plan after meeting with the president.

I believe that a lot of my concerns, it appears, are going to be addressed and that Im going to be getting the opportunity to offer amendments on the Senate floor, she said.

Ms. Collins said that the president was supportive of her wishes that $10,000 of property taxes be deductible under the Senate plan, a change that would be similar to the compromise that House Republicans made on the repeal of the state and local tax deduction. She also said that Mr. Trump was supportive of backing legislation to help stabilize health insurance markets under the Affordable Care Act, which she said would help mitigate the effects of ending the laws requirement that most people have insurance, as the tax bill would do.

Senator Lamar Alexander, Republican of Tennessee, said that Senate Republicans were increasingly united about repealing the requirement that most people have health insurance or pay a penalty.

He said that Mr. Trump was very involved in the details of the tax package on Tuesday and that he took several questions from senators.

He had a vigorous back-and-forth, Mr. Alexander said.

Both Mr. Alexander and Ms. Collins demurred when asked whether they would be concerned if the Joint Committee on Taxation report showed that the bill would increase the deficit even with additional economic growth.

Im not going to be hypothetical about that, Mr. Alexander said.

Democrats on the Budget Committee assailed their Republican colleagues for shedding their deficit hawk feathers and backing a bill that they say is fiscally irresponsible. Many Republican senators left after protesters disrupted the meeting, chanting, Kill the bill.

Acknowledging that a final vote was most likely days away, Democratic leaders appeared to have few procedural maneuvers left to slow the progress of the tax bill.

Our Republican colleagues, in their rush to get a bill done, are legislating in an irresponsible way, especially when it comes to something as important and complex as the tax code, said Senator Chuck Schumer, Democrat of New York and the minority leader.

See the original post here:
Republicans Clear Major Hurdle as Tax Bill Advances

Like many other advocacy groups, the chamber is putting extra emphasis on how lawmakers vote on tax and economic issues and wont be inclined to throw its support behind those who dont share the views of the business lobby.

The first big test for Senate Republicans and their two-seat majority comes next week, when they will try to advance a budget that sets the parameters for a tax bill and establishes a procedural framework to approve it with a simple majority. The House last week narrowly passed its version of a budget, but not before 18 Republicans defected.

A tax overhaul would be nearly impossible to achieve if the budget fails, and Senate leaders dont have the kind of cushion that their House counterparts had. Senator Rand Paul, Republican of Kentucky, has already indicated that he could oppose the spending plan. Senator John McCain, the Arizona Republican who has clashed with the president and helped kill the health care repeal, is also considered a question mark.

That means Republicans cannot spare another vote.

Thats where the increasingly toxic relationship between Mr. Trump and Senator Bob Corker of Tennessee comes into play. Mr. Corker is a senior Republican member on the Budget Committee who had already expressed misgivings about the tax plan and the potential for higher federal deficits. Losing his vote could be fatal. But Mr. Corker has very close relationships in the Senate, and many Republicans doubt he would kill the budget or tax plan simply to spite Mr. Trump.

Defeating the budget is dishing more punishment on your colleagues than it is on the president, said Neil Bradley, senior vice president at the chamber and a former top Republican official in the House.

Acutely aware of the tightrope he is walking, Senator Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, the majority leader, wrote an op-ed for NBC News encouraging Democrats interested in cutting taxes to put aside their issues with the president and join Republicans. It is unlikely to have much effect on the usually party-line budget vote, but Republicans know their job would be much easier if they could peel off just one or two centrist Democrats facing re-election next year.

Any significant rewrite of the tax code is extremely difficult a political truth underscored by the fact that the last major overhaul was in 1986. Republicans concede that there are plenty of disagreements of the magnitude that could easily scuttle a proposal.

But they argue that Republicans are in such a politically perilous position because of their lack of accomplishment thus far that lawmakers and the White House are going to have to overlook their differences and come together on a plan. Otherwise theyll be staring into the abyss.

Members on both sides of the Capitol are going to have to be flexible and swallow features that may give them political indigestion in order to get a bill, said Bob Stevenson, a Republican strategist and former senior Senate aide who was on Capitol Hill for the last tax overhaul. But as Ben Franklin said, You hang together or hang separately.

Mr. Bradley, the chamber official, said he agreed that in a more conventional political environment, existing divisions among Republicans could be sufficient to kill a tax bill. But there is such a growing realization that failure is not an option that they will be able to overcome a lot of these policy and political conflicts, he said.

Mr. Bradley notes that Republicans might not be the only ones to take a hit if the tax-cut push collapses. He said the death knell for tax revisions would cause a worrisome domestic economic disruption as well.

As they fret about the outlook for tax cuts, Republicans also understand that eventual success on a tax plan could ease a lot of the criticism they have come under for their legislative failures and demonstrate they have the capacity to run Washington.

This is not one that can get left on the cutting room floor, said Josh Holmes, a communications adviser with close ties to Mr. McConnell. It has become a barometer of whether Republicans can govern under Trumps leadership.

At the moment, thats still an open question. But a Republican failure to succeed on a tax bill would provide an irrefutable answer.

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For Republicans, Failure Is Not an Option on Tax Cuts - The ...

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky is in the hot seat, as Senate Republicans appear to be on the precipice of yet another health care failure. Alex Wong/Getty Images hide caption

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky is in the hot seat, as Senate Republicans appear to be on the precipice of yet another health care failure.

Updated at 3:35 p.m. ET

Republicans are once again waving the white flag on health care.

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell announced that he is pulling the Republican health care bill because it does not have the votes.

Rather than endure another embarrassing vote that sees his caucus come up short, the senators agreed in a closed-door meeting to shelve the bill.

It's another chapter in months of GOP failure to unite on a replacement of the current health care law, the Affordable Care Act, or Obamacare despite a years-long galvanizing conservative push to do so.

With Republicans' latest health care failure, there is a question of what it could mean for McConnell. He and President Trump have not been on the same page and do not appear to have a warm relationship. Trump has criticized him on Twitter for previously being unable to pass health care, and there were reports of an intense, profanity-laced telephone call between the two.

Could this embarrassment for the GOP and president be the impetus for Trump to turn up the pressure even more on McConnell and try to seek a replacement?

"[A]t some point," Trump said at the White House before the announcement, "there will be a repeal and replace. ... But we are disappointed in certain so-called Republicans."

Three Republicans came out against the bill Susan Collins of Maine, John McCain of Arizona and Rand Paul of Kentucky. Republicans could lose only two senators for the bill to pass through the budget process of reconciliation, which allows for a majority vote instead of the 60-vote threshold ordinarily needed to end a filibuster.

The legislation suffered a fatal blow Monday night when Collins declared her opposition. Collins lambasted the bill in a statement, citing her problems with the bill as three-fold: "sweeping changes and cuts" to Medicaid, weakening "protections for people with pre-existing conditions," and that it "would lead to higher premiums and reduced coverage for tens of millions of Americans."

The GOP bill would have fundamentally overhauled Medicaid from an open-ended federal guarantee to a system that caps funds to the states but would have given them more flexibility in how they spent those dollars.

House Speaker Paul Ryan said he and House Republicans were "a little frustrated the Senate has not acted on a seminal promise."

Ryan noted that his conference had done its job, passing legislation in May.

Instead, congressional leaders and the president are ready to move on to overhauling the tax code.

They are set to unveil a "framework" for their legislation Wednesday, and McConnell said the Senate Budget Committee will mark up its resolution on taxes next week.

Trump said Tuesday he had asked members of Congress from both parties to "discuss our framework for tax cuts and tax reform before it will be released tomorrow. We will be releasing a very comprehensive, very detailed report tomorrow. And it will be a very, very powerful document."

Trump said the plan will be based on four principles:

1. "Make our tax code simple and fair." (He promised Americans would be able to file their taxes on a "single page.")

2. "Cut taxes tremendously for the middle class, not just a little bit but tremendously." (Double the standard deduction and increase the child tax credit.)

3. Lower business taxes.

4. "Bring back trillions of dollars in wealth parked overseas."

A comprehensive tax overhaul has not happened since 1986.

"Tomorrow is the beginning of a very important process that we are excited about here in Congress," Ryan said.

As for health care, McConnell tried to paint the debate as one of the Graham-Cassidy bill versus a single-payer system. Sen. Lindsey Graham, one of the bill's principal authors, had framed it as "federalism versus socialism." Independent Sen. Bernie Sanders, as well as some Democrats, have touted a "Medicare for all" plan.

But Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer of New York took to the Senate floor Tuesday to knock McConnell's argument as a "straw man" and a "false choice."

"Democrats have a lot of ideas about how to improve health care," Schumer said. "Each of them endeavors to increase coverage, improve the quality of care, and lower the cost of care. None none of the Republican plans manage to achieve those goals. That's the difference. The difference is one side wants to cut health care to average Americans, increase premiums, give the insurance companies far more freedom, and one side wants to increase care, the number of people covered, lower premiums, better coverage. That's the divide."

Schumer also accused Republicans of not wanting to have that debate on the merits and called for a "bipartisan way to improve the existing system."

Later, after the announcement of the bill's demise, Schumer called for a bipartisan approach. Standing next to Washington state Democratic Sen. Patty Murray, Schumer promoted the work of Murray and Republican Lamar Alexander of Tennessee, chairman of the Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee, to try to fix the current system.

"I saw Sen. Alexander in the gym this morning," Schumer said, "and he seemed open to it [working on a bipartisan deal]."

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Republicans Scrapping Health Care Vote Again : NPR