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A new study has concluded what many Americans have long suspected: The Covid-19 pandemic has killed more Republicans than Democrats.

In a detailed examination of data from Ohio and Florida, the National Bureau of Economic Research has found that political affiliation has emerged as a potential risk factor for COVID-19, and that significantly more Republicans than Democrats have died from the virus since the introduction of vaccines in early 2021 to protect against the disease.

By cross-referencing voter registration data and mortality figures, the study found that excess death rates the number of deaths above pre-pandemic levels for registered Republicans were significantly higher than for registered Democrats after the introduction of Covid-19 vaccines.

If these differences in vaccination by political party affiliation persist, then the higher excess death rate among Republicans is likely to continue through the subsequent stages of the COVID-19 pandemic, the study, which was published in September, concluded.

The study found that death ratesfrom Covid-19 were only slightly higher for Republicans than Democrats during the early days of the pandemic, before vaccines became available. But by the summer of 2021, a few months after vaccines were introduced, the Republican excess death rate rose to nearly double that of Democrats, and this gap widened further in the winter of 2021. The sudden increase in the gap between Republican and Democratic death rates suggests that vaccine take-up likely played an important role, the study found.

A central narrative of the Covid-19 pandemic in the United States has been Republican opposition to public health measures, particularly mandates to wear masks in public and vaccination requirements for employment and access to public places and public travel. That reflected a refusal by many conservatives, following the lead of former President Donald Trump, to take the pandemic seriously, choosing instead to treat Covid-19 as tantamount to the flu.

Despite the fact that more than 1 million Americans have died from the virus, many Republican political leaders, particularly in red states, refused to impose stringent public health restrictions during the pandemic, and criticized mask and vaccination mandates. That opposition led many Republicans to deny that the vaccines worked and to refuse to get the shots. In Florida, one of the two states included in the study, Gov. Ron DeSantis transformed himself into a national Republican leader and possible presidential contender by leading the right-wing charge against public health mandates.

The partisan divide over vaccination developed almost as soon as Covid-19 vaccines became available in early 2021, and it continued to widen. By September 2021, 92 percent of registered Democrats had been vaccinated, compared with only 56 percent of Republicans, according to a Gallup survey at the time.

But the National Bureau of Economic Research study provides some of the strongest evidence yet that the refusal of many Republicans to get vaccinated has made them much more likely to die from Covid-19. While those who have been vaccinated often still contract the virus, many studies have shown that people who have been vaccinated are much less likely to die from the disease.

There have been previous efforts to measure the impact on health of the partisan divide over Covid-19 vaccinations. But the National Bureau of Economic Research study offers a more detailed look at death rates in two states among Republicans and Democrats.

The study tracked 577,659 people who died in Ohio and Florida at age 25 or older between January 2018 and December 2021. It then linked those people to their 2017 Ohio and Florida voting records.

Between March 2020 and March 2021, excess death rates for Republicans in Ohio and Florida were 1.6 percentage points higher than for Democrats; but from April 2021 to December 2021 after vaccines became widely available the gap widened to 10.6 percentage points. The study found that the largest gaps in excess death rates between Republicans and Democrats came in Ohio and Florida counties with low vaccination rates. By using county-level vaccination rates in Ohio and Florida, we find evidence that vaccination contributes to explaining differences in excess deaths by political party affiliation, even after controlling for location and age differences, the study said.

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The Right's Anti-Vaxxers Are Killing Republicans - The Intercept

As was the case during the 2020 presidential election, there are partisan differences in how Americans intend to cast their ballots in Novembers elections. The bulk of people who say they will vote on Election Day (November 8) will vote Republican, while most people who plan to cast their ballots before Election Day will vote Democratic.

A majority of likely voters (57%) who say they will vote in-person on Election Day say they will vote for the Republican candidate in the district where they live. Meanwhile, 61% of likely voters who plan to vote by absentee ballot either by mail or by dropping off their ballot at a vote center or drop box say they will support the Democrats. Likely voters who plan to vote in-person prior to Election Day through early voting slightly favor Democrats: 50% of this group would pick the Democratic candidate, while 45% would choose the Republican. (Likely voters are defined as registered voters who say they will "definitely" or "probably" vote in the upcoming election, or who say they already have voted.)

Changes in voting rules and regulations may have an impact, as 27% of Americans who voted in 2020 plan to vote this year using a different voting method than they did in 2020, including 19% of 2020 in-person Election Day voters, 39% of 2020 in-person early voters, and 24% of 2020 voters who cast their ballot by mail.

Carl Bialik and Taylor Orth contributed to this article

Polling by the Economist/YouGov was conducted on October 8 - 11, 2022 among 1,500 U.S. adult citizens. Explore more on the methodology and data for this Economist/YouGov poll.

Image: Adobe Stock (Alcorn Imagery)

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How Democrats and Republicans plan to cast their ballots in November - YouGov US

I recently gave a speech to the Indiana Manufacturers Association regarding the 2022 midterm elections. When I was asked what the results would be, I jokingly said if I knew that Id be doing this speech from the island I bought in the South Pacific because I would have won the Powerball, Mega Millions and the Hoosier Lottery.

With that said, recent polling by my company Indy Politics and Illinois-based ARW Strategies can provide some insight.

First, lets start with the polling that shows a close race for U.S. Senate and secretary of state. Please note, I have always maintained that polls are not predictions of what will happen on Election Day but merely snapshots in time, which, when looked at in context, can highlight trends that demonstrate how things might turn out. With that caveat, we polled 600 likely statewide voters on Sept. 25-26. We used phones and text messages. And the polls margin of error was plus or minus 4 percentage points.

Republican incumbent Todd Young had a 2-percentage-point lead over his challenger, Democrat Tom McDermott. Young led 39% to 37%, which is within the margin of error. Libertarian James Sceniak was at 6%, while 17% of voters are still undecided. What was interesting in the undecided category was that 24% of Republicans said they were undecided. My theory is that these are MAGA Republicans who havent been crazy about Youngs first term in office, but they arent ready to vote for McDermott orSceniak.

Ironically, Republican Diego Morales faces somewhat of a similar situation in the secretary of state race. Democrat Destiny Wells has a 4-percentage-point lead over Morales, 36% to 32%, albeit her lead is within the margin of error. Libertarian Jeff Maurer was at 7%, and 25% of voters remained undecided. Once again, if we look at Republican voters, 27% were undecided. My theory here is, unlike Todd Young, who has issues with the MAGA crowd, Morales has issues with the establishment wing of the party.

Please note that we polled before we broke the story about two women who say Morales engaged in inappropriate sexual conduct. [Morales has denied those allegations.] However, Morales already had problems going into the poll: getting fired from the Secretary of States Office; quitting before he was fired a second time; spending $43,000 in campaign funds on a new car, which he could have had donated; unanswered questions about his military service; and backtrackingm on his positions on early voting and whether Joe Biden won the presidency fair and square.

And then there is abortion.

Indiana lawmakers met this summer and restricted abortion rights. It was legislation that neither the pro-life nor pro-choice side wanted. It got a lot of women worked up around the state. And the legislation is on hold while it makes its way through the court system. So, we asked in our poll: Would you vote for a candidate who supports abortion rights or a candidate who opposes abortion? Fifty-one percent of respodents said they would vote for a candidate who supports abortion rights, while only 35% said they would vote for a candidate who opposes abortion rights; 14% said it wouldntmatter.

At the start of this year, I would have argued that Republicans had things pretty much sewn up. Now? Not so much. Granted, a day in politics is a lifetime, and anything can happen. However, my Republican friends cant have too many more days like the ones theyve had lately.

__________

Shabazz is an attorney, radio talk show host and political commentator, college professor and stand-up comedian. Send comments to ibjedit@ibj.com.

Click here for more Forefront columns.

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Abdul-Hakim Shabazz: Republicans might not have it in the bag Indianapolis Business Journal - Indianapolis Business Journal

Its been 16 years since a Republican has won in Connecticuts 5th Congressional District, but George Logan has a good shot at breaking the losing streak.

"I believe that Connecticut Republicans have a better message," the former two-term state senator, small business owner and frontman in a Jimi Hendrix tribute band said in an interview with Fox News.

Logan, whos challenging two-term Democratic Rep. Jahana Hayes in next month's midterm elections in a House district that covers parts of the western half of Connecticut, argued that "people are tired of the status quo" as he pointed to record inflation fueled by what he called "out-of-control spending from Washington."

MEET THE REPUBLICAN WHO MAY MAKE HSITORY BY FLIPPING A DEEP BLUE SEAT RED

Republican Congressional nominee George Logan marches in a parade in Newtown, Connecticut, on Sept. 5, 2022 (Fox News)

Hayes, who made history as the first Black woman and Black Democrat to represent Connecticut in Congress, won both her 2018 election and her 2020 re-election by double digits. But the top nonpartisan political handicappers view the 2022 race as very competitive, rating it "Lean Democrat." And the National Republican Congressional Committee views the seat as a top pick-up opportunity.

National Republicans are spending big bucks to try and flip the seat. The Congressional Leadership Fund, the leading super PAC aligned with House GOP Leader Kevin McCarthy, has dished out $3 million in the district to boost Logan, whos also Black.

CHECK OUT THE LATEST FOX NEWS 2022 MIDTERMS POWER RANKINGS

Logan took aim at Democrats for what he called their "war on American energy independence." He noted that "gas prices are creeping up again" and that "here in New England, its starting to get cold, and people are looking at their home heating costs, filling up those fuel oil tanks, and people are very concerned."

He charged that Hayes "is out of touch. Shes not out in the community" and argued that "her backing of the Biden-Harris-Pelosi administration down in Washington has only made things worse."

Rep. Jahana Hayes introduces Vice President Kamala Harris and CEO of Planned Parenthood Alexis McGill Johnson, to discuss women's reproductive rights at Central Connecticut State University on Wednesday, Oct. 5, 2022, in New Britain, Conn. (Douglas Hook /Hartford Courant via AP) ((Douglas Hook /Hartford Courant via AP))

"I just stick to those major topics that people are most concerned about, and were just gaining supporters, gaining momentum every single day," he said.

One of those issues is crime.

Logan takes issue with state statistics that indicate crime is low in Connecticut and that its one of the safest states in the country.

"I completely disagree with the data. The data is flawed," Logan claimed. "Crimes are happening. I believe they are being under-reported."

And pointing to the states all-Democratic congressional delegation and a state government controlled by Democrats, Logan argued that "everyone knows here in Connecticut that the current leadership is weak on crime."

BATTLE FOR THE HOUSE: THESE DEEP BLUE SEATS COULD FLIP RED IN NOVEMBER

When it comes to the volatile issue of abortion, Logan said he supported the opinion by the Supreme Courts conservative majority to overturn the landmark Roe v. Wade ruling and send the fight over legalized abortion back to the states.

"I support a womans right to choose. I think it should be safe, legal and rare," he insisted.

"I am adamantly against late-term abortion," he added, before charging that "my opponent is in favor of abortion with no restrictions."

Asked whether he would support a 15-week abortion ban proposed by Congressional Republicans, Logan answered, "I am opposed to a national ban on abortion. I think it should be left up to the states. I would do what I can to make sure that Connecticuts current laws are not infringed in any way when it comes to womens reproductive rights and a womans right to choose."

Democrats arent buying what Logan is selling.

"Republicans are wasting their time and money on lobbyist George Logan, whose decision to align with MAGA Republicans who want to ban abortion and cut Social Security is toxic in blue-state Connecticut," Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee spokesperson James Singer charged in a statement to Fox News.

Singer vowed that "Democrats are going to defend this seat, because voters know Rep. Jahana Hayes has been fighting for them in Washington."

As part of that mission, last week Hayes landed a high-profile surrogate, as Vice President Kamala Harris traveled to Connecticut to team up with the congresswoman to discuss abortion rights.

Logan, for his part, pushes back against criticism from Democrats that hell follow GOP leadership if he wins in November.

FIGHT FOR THE MAJORITY: HOUSE DEMOCRATS AIMING TO FLIP THESE GOP SEATS BLUE

"I have told folks repeatedly that I am not going to Washington to represent the leadership in any political party, as my opponent has done," he said. "I was known in the legislature for being one who works across the aisle. I will work with Democrats and Republicans to pass bills that will improve the lives of everybody in my district."

Asked whether hell support impeaching President Biden if hes part of a House Republican majority on Capitol Hill come January, Logan said, "Given what I know now and the situation that we have now and what were dealing with, the answer is no. However, if things change, and theres some other type of information that would warrant that, I would consider it. But right now, I have no intentions of supporting any efforts to impeach the President of United States."

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"Im not happy with his policies. Im not happy with the direction hes taking our county. My goal is to go down to Washington to provide some checks and balances to the Biden-Harris administration. But my goal is not to go to Washington to impeach the President of the United States," Logan said.

Paul Steinhauser is a politics reporter based in New Hampshire.

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Meet the Black Republican whos aiming to flip a Democratic held House seat in heavily blue Connecticut - Fox News

A quartet of conservative City Council members turned a hearing on the municipal governments soaring vacancy rates into an anti-vaccine mandate spectacle Friday amid buzz that Mayor Adams could be on the brink of peeling back some of New Yorks remaining coronavirus restrictions.

The hearing in the Councils Civil Service and Labor Committee featured testimony from members of Adams administration on what theyre doing to improve the city governments job vacancy rate, which stands at 8.3% more than five times higher than pre-pandemic levels.

Once their time came to grill the Adams officials, the three Republicans on the panel, joined by likeminded moderate Democratic Councilmember Bob Holden, focused exclusively on the citys municipal workforce coronavirus vaccine mandate.

Councilwoman Vickie Paladino (R-Queens) claimed the government would not have a job shortage if it wasnt for the mandate, which was implemented in November 2021 and requires city workers to be vaccinated against the virus that has killed more than 41,000 New Yorkers.

Enough with all this malarkey, Paladino said before calling on the city to rehire any workers who got laid off for flouting the vaccine requirement, drawing cheers from a group of rowdy anti-mandate protesters in the Council gallery.

A group of New York City workers marched from Metro Tech in Downtown Brooklyn, over the Brooklyn Bridge, and then made their way over to City Hall to protest ahead of their possible termination earlier this year due to their vaccination status. (Luiz C. Ribeiro/)

Paladinos fellow GOP members, Inna Vernikov of Brooklyn and Joann Ariolla of Queens, followed up by demanding that Deputy Department of Citywide Administrative Services Commissioner Barbara Dannenberg tell them how many city workers have been fired as a result of the mandate.

DCAS would not have this information, but we could certainly circle back, Dannenberg said to boos from the hecklers in the gallery.

Holden, meantime, spent his allotted time laying out why he believes the city does not need a municipal vaccine mandate anymore.

Were not in 2020, were not in 2021, the city should get back to normal, he said. The city should lift everything.

Despite their focus on the mandate, only 1,761 city employees had gotten fired for refusing to get vaccinated as of Aug. 30 a fraction of the more than 330,000 posts across all municipal agencies, according to data from the mayors office. Another 583 unvaccinated workers remain on unpaid leave while waiting on the city to review their applications for exemptions to the mandate, the data shows.

Councilwoman Vickie Paladino (Barry Williams/)

Fridays hearing came one day after the Councils five Republicans issued a statement with Holden and conservative Democratic Councilmember Kalman Yeger saying they left a recent meeting with Adams optimistic that some positive changes are forthcoming as it relates to the municipal and private workforce vaccine mandates.

Staten Island Councilmember Joe Borelli, the GOP minority leader, declined to explain what exactly Adams said in the sit-down. But he told the Daily News that the mayors willingness to meet is a good sign.

Just the fact that hes willing to meet on the issue shows that hes willing to consider changes, Borelli said.

Adams spokesman Fabien Levy also declined to say what Adams talked to the Republicans about, but stressed hes always willing to sit down with elected officials and members of the community and hear their concerns.

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City Council Republicans turn hearing on NYC job vacancies into anti ...