Voters take to the polls in the early hours of the            morning on Tuesday, Nov. 8, 2022, during the 2022            Midterm Elections at Ladue City Hall in Ladue, Mo.            Brian            Munoz/St. Louis Public Radio hide caption          
          Voters take to the polls in the early hours of the          morning on Tuesday, Nov. 8, 2022, during the 2022 Midterm          Elections at Ladue City Hall in Ladue, Mo.        
    ST. LOUIS  Missouri may soon be a barometer for how    abortion-related ballot initiatives can affect elections in    Republican-led states.  
    If advocates and volunteers turn in enough signatures by May 5,    Missourians will vote on an abortion-rights initiative in    November.  
    Some Democrats in the state hope it energizes voters enough to    help candidates running for key statewide and state legislative    posts, but in some respects, having the ability to pick and    choose policies through a robust initiative petition process    could be a double-edged sword.  
    Voters in Missouri could show that abortion rights initiatives    are not a down-ballot Democratic dream everywhere, especially    if GOP voters who dislike their party's views on abortion    rights still like candidates on most other issues.  
    Desiree White, a Missouri resident, says the state has the    opportunity to break from widespread assumptions about its    politics and voting habits.  
    White is a volunteer for     Missourians for Constitutional Freedom, a group trying to    repeal the state's ban on most abortions. As she helped gather    the signatures needed to appear on the ballot, White says    there's ample evidence that Missouri is not some "throwaway    state" when it comes to abortion rights just because it tends    to back GOP candidates.  
    "We're not too red," White says. "We long for our freedoms here    in all aspects."  
    Public opinion may show the same. "We know from polling, and    from results in other states, that there are a fair number of    Republican voters who will vote Republican in other elections,    but they don't agree with their party on abortion rights," says    Kyle Kondik, who is with the University of Virginia-based    Sabato's Crystal Ball. "They can place themselves on a spectrum    of supporting abortion rights and say: 'Hey, maybe I even think    that this ballot issue is too permissive. However, it's closer    to my position than this current law in Missouri, which is    among the most draconian in the country.' "  
            Bryan Pyle poses for a portrait in his home on            Thursday, April 25, 2024, in Kirkwood, Mo. Pyle is            conservative in his political views, but is against a            ban on abortion. Eric Lee/St. Louis Public Radio            hide caption          
          Bryan Pyle poses for a portrait in his home on Thursday,          April 25, 2024, in Kirkwood, Mo. Pyle is conservative in          his political views, but is against a ban on abortion.        
    St. Louis County resident Bryan Pyle may be a great example of    the type of voter Kondik is talking about.  
    Pyle signed the Missourians for Constitutional Freedom ballot    initiative, which would allow abortion up to what's known as    fetal viability. That's     defined in the initiative as a point when a medical    professional determines a fetus could survive outside of the    womb without extraordinary medical intervention.  
    "We don't need to have people take the rights from other people    because they don't like it," Pyle says. "And we should all have    the right to make our own decisions."  
    But Pyle, who voted for Republican candidates in 2016 and 2020,    expects to vote for the GOP in 2024. That corresponds with    recent polling from     Saint Louis University and YouGov showing that 24% of    Republican respondents would vote for the Missourians for    Constitutional Freedom initiative.     That same survey shows a Republican winning the governor's    race without too much trouble.  
    "The best bet that Republicans have in the state is that they    get the voters to put their 'red jerseys' on and look at the    abortion rights issue as a kind of partisan issue," Kondik    says. "But again, my guess is there'll be a significant number    of voters who don't do that. And you can imagine it passing    even in the midst of an otherwise Republican environment."  
    Split ticket voting behavior is common in Missouri, where    Republicans control all statewide offices and both U.S. Senate    seats but thanks to an initiative petition process allowing    groups to circumvent the legislature, Missourians have enacted    fairly left-of-center policies     expanding Medicaid and raising the minimum wage. They also    legalized     marijuana for adult use and     instituted campaign donations.  
    Some of those results stem from underfunded opposition    campaigns. Still, others say it's part of a broader trend    allowing voters to back policies that may depart from their    chosen candidates' political orthodoxy.  
    "You're asking voters a single question," says pollster    Christine Matthews, who runs Virginia-based Bellwether Research    and Consulting. "And they're only considering the abortion    issue. When you're looking at a candidate, you're looking at    them with a whole lot of different positions and needs and    frames in mind."  
    For their part, GOP candidates in Missouri aren't too worried    about abortion rights upending their bids for office in 2024.  
    U.S. Sen. Josh Hawley, for instance, says he welcomes    Missourians deciding for themselves whether to legalize    abortion or keep the ban in place. Hawley opposes abortion    rights except in cases of rape, incest or the life of the    mother. That's out of step with Missouri's law, which     doesn't have exceptions for rape or incest.  
            Democratic Missouri state Representative Ashley Aune,            poses for a portrait on Thursday, Jan. 25, 2024, at the            state Capitol in Jefferson City. Eric Lee/St. Louis Public            Radio hide caption          
          Democratic Missouri state Representative Ashley Aune,          poses for a portrait on Thursday, Jan. 25, 2024, at the          state Capitol in Jefferson City.        
    "My whole adult life I said Roe is wrong because the    Constitution gives us the choice of the people," Hawley said    earlier this year. "My view is, you gotta let the people    decide. So if the people want to vote on this, we should vote    on it. We can vote on it every year if they want to."  
    The three major Republican candidates seeking to succeed    Missouri Gov. Mike Parson aren't worried they'll suffer    electoral blowback either  even if     the abortion initiative goes before voters in November.  
    Lt. Gov. Mike Kehoe says it's possible that the initiative    could motivate socially conservative voters  especially in    rural counties and conservative suburbs where the GOP gained    ground in the past decade.  
    "Even if there's Missourians who say there might be some    medical exceptions or exceptions for rape or incest, I think if    they knew how far it allows it to go  it would give them    pause," Kehoe says.  
    Still, recent history shows that abortion rights can impact    down-ballot elections. Back in 2012, then-U.S. Sen. Claire    McCaskill won a resounding reelection victory over GOP opponent    former U.S. Rep. Todd Akin. Akin     set off a national firestorm after he said on a local    television program, "If it's a legitimate rape, the female body    has ways to try to shut that whole thing down."  
    Even current GOP candidates, such as gubernatorial hopeful Jay    Ashcroft, Missouri's secretary of state, say they don't think    the effect of an abortion rights initiative will be nonexistent    on other contests. He says it's possible that it could affect    state legislative contests, especially in suburban districts    where the two parties are more evenly divided.  
    "Maybe there's certain suburban districts, those kind of 50/50    House districts, or one or two state Senate districts, where    maybe that changes the electorate enough to change who gets    elected," says Ashcroft.  
    And Democrats like Lucas Kunce, one of the Democrats running    against Sen. Hawley, say the reason to get the abortion rights    ballot item up to Missouri voters has less to do with the    political impact and more about overturning what he sees as a    cruel and overreaching ban.  
    "The importance of that is not my race, it's the importance of    giving women access to the health care that they need," Kunce    says. "It is about taking care of everyday Missourians and    taking away the weird control that our politicians want to have    over women and giving them the ability to make their own    decisions."  
            Missouri state Senator Bill Eigel, a Republican,            gestures as he debates with Republican Missouri Senate            Floor Leader Cindy O'Laughlin, not pictured, during            session on Thursday, Jan. 25, 2024, in Jefferson City.            Eric            Lee/St. Louis Public Radio hide caption          
          Missouri state Senator Bill Eigel, a Republican, gestures          as he debates with Republican Missouri Senate Floor          Leader Cindy O'Laughlin, not pictured, during session on          Thursday, Jan. 25, 2024, in Jefferson City.        
    Unlike other states such as Wisconsin, Missouri's robust    initiative petition process makes legalizing abortion possible,    but that may change.  
    Missouri lawmakers have been trying to place another ballot    item, presumably on the August ballot,     that would raise the threshold to amend the state's    constitution. Some lawmakers also want to place other items    into the initiative, such as a measure barring noncitizens from    voting.  
    "Folks are rightfully looking for Republicans in the    legislature to lead on this issue and protect the    constitution," says Missouri Sen. Bill Eigel, who like Kehoe    and Ashcroft, is running for governor.  
    Democrats have decried the other items in the initiative    petition overhaul as "ballot candy" meant to confuse voters    from the real purpose: making it nearly impossible for    organizations to place ballot items up for a vote.  
    "The voters are not going to be fooled by this effort," says    Democratic state Rep. Ashley Aune, noting     a similar effort fell flat in Ohio. "What they're trying to    do is essentially to end majority rule."  
    Sen. John Rizzo, the Democratic leader of the Missouri Senate,    says he's tried to warn his Republican colleagues that a    successful effort to gut the initiative petition process could    backfire on the GOP.  
    He says giving people the right to pick policies different from    the candidates they ultimately vote for may help Republicans in    the long run.  
    "That's the thing that allows them to go around the    legislature," Rizzo says. "And if they can't do that, and they    can't go around the legislature, they're gonna start changing    the legislature."  
            Karlie Kloss, right, speaks to a volunteer for            Missourians for Constitutional Freedom, a group            attempting to legalize abortion in the state, on            Monday, April 1, 2024, at Congregation Shaare Emeth in            Creve Coeur, Mo. Brian Munoz/St. Louis Public Radio            hide caption          
          Karlie Kloss, right, speaks to a volunteer for          Missourians for Constitutional Freedom, a group          attempting to legalize abortion in the state, on Monday,          April 1, 2024, at Congregation Shaare Emeth in Creve          Coeur, Mo.        
    Missourians for Constitutional Freedom are slated to turn in    their signatures by May 5. In addition to getting thousands of    volunteer signature gatherers and millions of dollars in    campaign donations, the campaign also received support from    fashion icon Karlie Kloss.  
    Kloss was in the St. Louis area earlier this month to gather    signatures for the abortion initiative. Like other volunteers,    she noticed that a good share of people who wanted to sign the    petition were Republicans who disagreed with their party on the    right to a legal abortion.  
    "It's no secret that there's an enormous amount of bipartisan    support," Kloss said earlier this month     in an interview with St. Louis Public Radio. "Many    signatures and people showing up here today and organizing this    effort are Republicans  as well as Democrats."  
    Kloss, who grew up in the St. Louis suburb of Webster Groves,    said the rest of the country should pay attention to what's    happening in Missouri  and not just for political    implications. The lack of abortion access is causing stress on    smaller health care facilities, especially in Illinois where    the procedure is legal. That's one of the reasons she started a    group called the Gateway Coalition to support those facilities.  
    "It's devastating to me the reality of what is happening and    how it has become so politicized," Kloss said. "Because to me,    this is a conversation that belongs between an individual and    their physician, and an individual and their loved ones.    Politicians should not be involved."  
    Missourians should know sometime over the summer if they're    going to vote to legalize abortion.  
    "To me, this issue is about dignity," Kloss said.  
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Voters could support abortion rights and Republicans in November - NPR