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South Carolina primary 2024: Trump projected win, Haley vows to stay in the race – ABC News
I have become a little obsessed tonight about what we should be expecting Trump to hit in this primary a priori. That is, given Trump is assumed to be the eventual party nominee and almost universally liked in the GOP, should he be winning more than 60 percent in South Carolina?
I already gave my case for answering "no" to that question: Strictly speaking Trump is dominating the delegate count and running ahead of his 2016 vote share in most counties with complete counts this primary cycle. And if you consider that Haley gets a home-state advantage in South Carolina tonight, Trump's adjusted vote share is close to 65 or 70 percent; our delegate benchmarks think Trump should have won 68 percent of the vote based on the demographics of the state alone. That's not the highest number, but it's not the lowest right? Would 65 percent be "good" for Trump? 75 percent? 80?
One counterargument to this centers around how the media has covered historical performances by incumbent presidential candidates. Journalist Jill Lawrence points out that in 1992, Patrick Buchanan challenged incumbent President George H.W. Bush for the GOP nomination and won 40 percent in the New Hampshire primary, holding Bush to 58 percent of the vote. That's an almost identical split to the results from tonight. The New York Times journalist Robin Toner wrote up the results with the headline "BUSH JARRED IN FIRST PRIMARY" and said the result "amounted to a roar of anger" from Republican primary voters.
If Trump was a true incumbent, I imagine the news media would use a similar headline to describe tonight's results in South Carolina. Perhaps our expectations for him are too low, or we're too focused on the broader state of play? Haley said in her concession speech tonight that she will stay in the race indefinitely, so I guess we'll get more data on Super Tuesday only 10 days from now. The primary lives on!
G. Elliott Morris, 538
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South Carolina primary 2024: Trump projected win, Haley vows to stay in the race - ABC News
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South Carolina primary exit polls for the 2024 GOP election: What voters said as they cast their ballots – CBS News
Note: percentages may update as CBS News collects more data.
Voters in South Carolina weighed in on the 2024 Republican primary Saturday, and just after polls closed at 7 p.m., the election results came in CBS News projected former President Donald Trump defeated Nikki Haley. Here's the latest on the factors that went into voters' decisions how they chose between former President Donald Trump and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley at the ballot box, according to exit polls.
The home-state advantage wasn't there for Haley.
Trump bested Haley among most key demographic groups. He won majorities of both men and women and among all age groups.
Trump ran especially well with the parts of the Republican base that were predominant in the GOP electorate, including conservatives and White evangelicals. More than four in 10 South Carolina GOP primary voters identified themselves as part of the MAGA movement and about nine in 10 of them backed Trump.
Most South Carolina GOP primary voters rejected the charge that Trump is mentally unfit to serve as president, according to early exit polls.
And South Carolina Republican primary voters are also dissatisfied with the way things are going in the country overall and rate the nation's economy negatively, according to early exit polls. In fact, nearly nine in 10 of these voters say they're dissatisfied with how things in the country are going including nearly half who say they are angry about it. This is currently higher than the 36% of New Hampshire primary voters who said they were angry. Eight in 10 say the economy is either not so good or poor.
Haley has questioned Trump's mental fitness for office, but Trump's voters overwhelmingly refute this, and most instead charge that it's Haley who lacks the physical and mental health needed to serve effectively as president. As a result, Trump beats Haley on this measure among Republican primary voters overall in South Carolina.
These early exit polls show a largely conservative electorate, and one that more closely resembles that of the Iowa GOP caucuses than the New Hampshire Republican primary.
This electorate is more conservative than it was in 2016, when Trump won the Republican primary in this state.
Conservative: More than four in 10 of GOP primary voters call themselves "very conservative," higher than the 38% who identified themselves that way in the 2016 primary. In 2016, those who were "somewhat conservative" outnumbered those who were "very conservative." But the reverse is the case in the primary today.
MAGA: Almost half of South Carolina GOP voters identify as "MAGA," in line with Iowa GOP caucusgoers (46%), but higher than what CBS News saw in the New Hampshire primary.
Evangelical: About six in 10 voters are White evangelicals, about three times as many as there were in the New Hampshire Republican primary. And if this holds, it would be higher than the 55% who identified as White evangelical in the Iowa caucuses.
Independents: Only about a quarter of voters call themselves independents, lower than the 44% in New Hampshire. About 4% of today's primary voters identify as Democrats.
Race:As we often see with Republican primary electorates, this electorate is largely White. More than nine in 10 voters are White.
Polls close at 7 p.m.
Primary results in the South Carolina Republican primary will start to come in after the polls close. CBS News will not characterize or project the outcome of the race before the last polls close at 7 p.m. ET.
This is the latest CBS News' estimate of how many delegates have been allocated to Republican candidates, based on the results of the nominating contests to date. Heading into the South Carolina primary, Trump had an estimated 63 delegates, compared to Haley's 17 delegates. South Carolina allocates 50 delegates. Twenty-nine of them are state delegates and the winner will take all of them. Twenty-one are allocated by congressional district three for each of the seven districts, and the winner takes all the delegates in each district.
There are 50 delegates at stake and 29 will be awarded to the winner of the statewide vote. Twenty-one delegates will be allocated according to the vote in each of the state's seven congressional districts. The top vote-getter in each district will get three delegates from that district. The tracker currently includes estimated delegates allocated after the GOP contests in Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada.
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South Carolina primary exit polls for the 2024 GOP election: What voters said as they cast their ballots - CBS News
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3 things to watch for in South Carolina’s Republican presidential primary – ABC News
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3 things to watch for in South Carolina's Republican presidential primary - ABC News
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South Carolina Primary: Trump Defeats Haley, Delivering a Crushing Blow in Her Home State – The New York Times
Former President Donald J. Trump easily defeated Nikki Haley in South Carolinas Republican primary on Saturday, delivering a crushing blow in her home state and casting grave doubt on her long-term viability.
Mr. Trumps victory, called by The Associated Press, was widely expected, and offers fresh fodder for his contention that the race is effectively over. Ms. Haley pledged to continue her campaign, but the former president has swept the early states and is barreling toward the nomination even as a majority of delegates have yet to be awarded.
This was a little sooner than we anticipated, he said in Columbia, S.C., minutes after the race was called, adding that he had never seen the Republican Party so unified as it is right now.
Throughout his victory speech, Mr. Trump made it clear that he was eager to turn his attention to the general election, at one point telling the crowd: I just wish we could do it quicker. Nine months is a long time.
He also did not mention Ms. Haley by name, alluding to her only twice: once to knock her for a disappointing finish in a Nevada primary contest with no practical value, and once for supporting an opponent of his in 2016.
In her election-night speech in Charleston, S.C., Ms. Haley congratulated Mr. Trump on his victory. But she said the results he was beating her by 60 percent to 39 percent as of late Saturday demonstrated that huge numbers of voters were saying they want an alternative.
Mr. Trump, however, won South Carolina in 2016 and has remained popular in the state since, with polls ahead of the primary consistently showing him with double-digit leads.
Ms. Haley, the former governor of South Carolina and a United Nations ambassador during Mr. Trumps administration, had hoped to buck the odds, but her loss at the hands of voters who are arguably the most familiar with her politics will fuel further uncertainty about her path forward.
During her speech, Ms. Haley sounded more serious and less upbeat than she had after defeats in Iowa and New Hampshire. But she said she planned to stay in the race through Super Tuesday on March 5, arguing that Americans deserved a chance to choose a candidate.
In the next 10 days, another 21 states and territories will speak, she told supporters. They have the right to a real choice. Not a Soviet-style election with only one candidate.
Ms. Haley has staked her campaign on drawing support from independents and more moderate Republicans, particularly in states where primaries are not restricted to voters registered with one party.
But that strategy fell short in New Hampshire last month the early-voting state where she was closest to Mr. Trump in polls and in South Carolina, raising questions about whether it will succeed in Michigan, which holds its primary on Tuesday, and any of the 16 states that vote on Super Tuesday on March 5.
Still, Ms. Haley has insisted she will stay in the race, arguing that she is providing an alternative for voters opposed to Mr. Trump and maintaining that Americans deserve a chance to choose a candidate.
So far, though, Republican voters have shown no sign of turning away from Mr. Trump, even as he faces 91 felony charges in four criminal cases. Mr. Trumps legal problems have been at the forefront of his bid, as he tries to use the unprecedented collision between the campaign trail and courtrooms to rally his base behind him.
Mr. Trumps first criminal trial, on charges connected to a hush-money payment to a porn star in 2016, is scheduled to start on March 25 in New York City, meaning his trial could overlap with dozens of Republican primaries and caucuses.
Whether Ms. Haley will remain in the race by then is an open question. Donors have so far continued to pour money into her bid, giving her the cash to keep going. She will travel to Michigan on Sunday and has planned stops in a number of states before the Super Tuesday contests, when 36 percent of Republican delegates will be up for grabs.
We dont anoint kings in this country, Ms. Haley said on Tuesday. We have elections. And Donald Trump, of all people, should know we dont rig elections.
The Trump campaign has repeatedly signaled its desire to focus on the general election and an anticipated matchup against President Biden, who won South Carolinas Democratic primary early this month.
In a speech earlier on Saturday at the Conservative Political Action Conference outside Washington, Mr. Trump focused entirely on Mr. Biden rather than addressing Ms. Haley, his more immediate opponent.
Mr. Trump and his team have called on Ms. Haley to drop out of the race, pointing to his delegate tally and his lead in polls as proof that she has no mathematical path to the nomination.
Mr. Trumps followers have outnumbered Ms. Haleys at every turn of the contest so far. Even in Nevada, where Ms. Haley was the only candidate in a Republican primary that awarded no delegates, she was outvoted by a None of These Candidates option on the ballot. Ms. Haley did not campaign there and her campaign shrugged off the symbolic defeat, but it generated days of embarrassing headlines.
Over the last month, Trump advisers have taken every opportunity to argue that Ms. Haley has yet to name a state whose primary she thinks she can win. Mr. Trump sought to undercut and humiliate her well ahead of South Carolina.
In New Hampshire, the Trump campaign showcased her relative lack of support at home by bringing a slew of prominent South Carolina Republicans to the state, including Gov. Henry McMaster and Senator Tim Scott, whom Ms. Haley appointed to his position.
Both men appeared regularly at Mr. Trumps South Carolina rallies, with Mr. Scott, a former rival for the Republican nomination, emerging as a key surrogate and a potential running mate. Mr. Trump has also begun to claim that he only tapped Ms. Haley for the United Nations post in his administration in order to clear the way for Mr. McMaster to become governor.
That line is part of an increasingly aggressive barrage of attacks that Mr. Trump has unleashed at Ms. Haley since the Republican field narrowed. After earlier only criticizing Ms. Haleys standing in the polls, he began taking aim at her political views while lobbing personal smears about her temperament, intelligence and marriage.
Ms. Haley, for her part, has also leveled sharp critiques at Mr. Trump, building on her monthslong argument that Republicans need a younger leader who can leave behind the chaos of the Trump era. She has called him unhinged and suggested that he would use the Republican National Committees coffers to pay his mounting legal bills as he fights his criminal indictments.
Her loss in South Carolina marked a striking political transformation for both her and the Republican Party. When Ms. Haley ran for governor in 2010, she was the anti-establishment candidate embraced by grass-roots conservatives aligned with the Tea Party who saw her as an outsider.
But the movement that propelled her success coalesced behind Mr. Trump in 2016, helping him dominate Republican politics and remake the party in his image. Ms. Haley, once seen as being on the partys conservative fringes, now appears to be too moderate for the Republican base.
Jazmine Ulloa contributed reporting.
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South Carolina Primary: Trump Defeats Haley, Delivering a Crushing Blow in Her Home State - The New York Times
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