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Powerful Activists and Lawmakers Have Blocked Post-Roe Abortion … – ProPublica

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State Rep. Taylor Rehfeldt was speaking on the floor of the South Dakota Capitol, four months pregnant with her third child, begging her Republican colleagues to care about her life.

With the current law in place, I will tell you, I wake up fearful of my pregnancy and what it would mean for my children, my husband and my parents if something happened to me and the doctor cannot perform lifesaving measures, she told her fellow lawmakers last February, her voice faltering as tears threatened.

Rehfeldt was a stroke survivor and her pregnancy put her at high risk for blood clots and heart issues that could kill her. The states ban made abortion a felony unless it was necessary to preserve the life of the pregnant female. If Rehfeldt developed complications, doctors told her, the law didnt make clear how close to death she needed to be before they could act.

When can a doctor intervene? Do I need to have my brain so oxygen-deprived to the point that I am nonfunctional? she asked the room.

Listen: South Dakota Legislature

In February, Republican South Dakota state Rep. Taylor Rehfeldt, then four months pregnant, spoke on the floor of the state Legislature about how the states strict abortion ban put her health at risk.

Rehfeldt is an ambitious rising Republican: She has a strong anti-abortion voting record and is serving as the House assistant majority leader. She also was a nurse. But her background and credentials failed to rally her colleagues to support a narrow clarification to the ban that would allow a doctor to end a pregnancy if the female is at serious risk of death or of a substantial and irreversible physical impairment of one or more major bodily functions.

I would never have possibly imagined that a bill protecting a womans life could be so contentious, Rehfeldt said on the floor of the House, announcing she was withdrawing her bill before even bringing it to a vote.

The language she and two other Republicans had landed on was still so slim, most national medical organizations and abortion-access advocates wouldnt support it.

But even that had no chance. South Dakota Right to Life a local affiliate of the major anti-abortion organization National Right to Life, which can rally voters to sway Republican primary elections had told her it opposed any changes. (South Dakota Right to Life declined to comment.)

When the Supreme Court struck down the constitutional right to abortion last year, strict abortion bans in more than a dozen states snapped into effect. Known as trigger laws, many of the bans were passed years earlier, with little public scrutiny of the potential consequences, because few expected Roe v. Wade to be overturned.

Most of the trigger laws included language allowing abortion when necessary to prevent a pregnant persons death or substantial and irreversible impairment to a major bodily function. Three allowed it for fatal fetal anomalies and two permitted it for rape victims who filed a police report. But those exceptions have been nearly inaccessible in all but the most extreme cases.

Many of the laws specify that mental health reasons cant qualify as a medical emergency, even if a doctor diagnoses that a patient might harm herself or die if she continues a pregnancy. The laws also carry steep felony penalties in Texas, a doctor could face life in prison for performing an abortion.

The overturn of Roe has intensified the struggle between those who dont want strict abortion bans to trump the life and health of the pregnant person and absolutists who see preservation of a fetus as the singular goal, even over the objections of the majority of voters. In the states where near-total abortion bans went into effect after Roes protections evaporated, the absolutists have largely been winning.

And the human toll has become clear.

On the floors of state legislatures over the past year, doctors detailed the risks their pregnant patients have faced when forced to wait to terminate until their health deteriorated. Women shared their trauma. Some Republican lawmakers even promised to support clarifications.

But so far, few efforts to add exceptions to the laws have succeeded.

A review by ProPublica of 12 of the nations strictest abortion bans passed before Roe was overturned found that over the course of the 2023 legislative session, only four states made changes. Those changes were limited and steered by religious organizations. None allowed doctors to provide abortions to patients who want to terminate their pregnancies because of health risks.

ProPublica spoke with more than 30 doctors across the country about their experiences trying to provide care for patients in abortion-ban states and also reviewed news articles, medical journal studies and lawsuits. In at least 70 public cases across 12 states, women with pregnancy complications faced severe health risks and were denied abortion care or had treatment delayed due to abortion bans. Some nearly died or lost their fertility as a result. The doctors say the true number is much higher.

Early signs indicated Republicans might compromise, as voters in red states showed strong popular support for protecting abortion access and polls revealed the majority of American voters do not support total abortion bans. That opposition has only hardened since then, as reproductive rights drove a wave of Democratic electoral victories in Kentucky, Virginia and Pennsylvania in November. In Ohio, voters approved an amendment to the states constitution guaranteeing the right to an abortion.

But in the most conservative states, Republicans ultimately fell in line with highly organized Christian groups. Those activists fought to keep the most restrictive abortion bans in place by threatening to pull funding and support primary challenges to lawmakers that didnt stand strong.

Their fervor to protect the laws reflects a bedrock philosophy within the American anti-abortion movement: that all abortion exceptions even those that protect the pregnant persons life or health should be considered the same as sanctioning murder.

By the time the 2023 legislative sessions began, the consequences of total abortion bans written years earlier by legal strategists with no medical expertise had become clear.

Across the nation, women described the harm they experienced when care was delayed or denied for high-risk complications or fatal fetal anomalies.

Amanda Zurawksi, a Texas woman who almost died after she was made to wait for an abortion until she developed a serious infection, testified before the U.S. Senate Judiciary Committee: The preventable harm inflicted on me has already, medically, made it harder than it already was for me to get pregnant again.

Jaci Statton, an Oklahoma woman who had a dangerous pregnancy that is never viable and can become cancerous, sued after being told that doctors couldnt touch me until I was crashing and that we should wait in the parking lot until I was about to die, she told the Tulsa World.

Nancy Davis, a Louisiana woman who traveled out of state for an abortion after she learned her fetus was developing without a skull, said doctors told her, I had to carry my baby to bury my baby.

Mylissa Farmer, a Missouri woman who described being denied abortion care at three separate emergency room visits after her water broke before viability, sparked a federal investigation of the hospitals. The experience was dehumanizing, she told The Associated Press. It was horrible not to get the care to save your life.

Polls show that the majority of Americans reject laws that dont allow patients to make health care decisions about their own bodies. When voters have been asked directly, as they were in ballot measures in Kansas, Kentucky, Montana and Ohio, they have chosen to protect abortion access. And in the 2022 midterms, congressional Republican candidates in some swing districts lost over their abortion stances.

Sensing backlash, some Republicans signaled a willingness to revisit their states abortion bans.

I think theres enough support for a compromised solution that matches up with most voters, Republican Kentucky state Sen. Whitney Westerfield told Louisville Public Media in November 2022.

We need to make clear what the trigger law meant, Tennessee state Sen. Becky Duncan Massey said to WBIR Channel 10 in August 2022. Doctors should be concerned about saving the life of a mom.

In 10 of the 12 states with laws that ProPublica reviewed, lawmakers made efforts to add new exceptions or clarify language in 2023. In eight of them, Republicans were part of the effort.

But over time, calls from some Republicans for compromise were overwhelmed by strong opposition from anti-abortion lobbyists. In Idaho, Louisiana, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Tennessee and Texas, Republican lawmakers voted down or killed exceptions that would give doctors broader discretion to address health risks.

In Arkansas, Idaho, Kentucky, North Dakota, Tennessee and Texas, they quashed bills that would let doctors offer abortion when it was clear the fetus would never survive. Bills proposing rape and incest exceptions failed in eight of the states. In Arkansas, lawmakers voted against rape and incest exceptions that were narrowed to apply only to children.

The rejections came after women and families came to statehouses to share their own heartbreaking experiences.

We found out that my baby had a giant hole in her chest and her intestines were strangling her heart, Chelsea Stovall said in testimony to the Arkansas State Legislature, crying as she shared her experience terminating a nonviable pregnancy earlier that year. I had to travel out of state to a doctor who didnt know me and didnt know potential complications.

Stovall told ProPublica she did have complications she bled for more than a month after the abortion and had to have a second procedure.

State Rep. Delisha Boyd, a Democrat who put forward a rape and incest exception bill in Louisiana, shared that she was conceived when her mother was raped at 15 by an older man.

I know that my mother never recovered from that and she was dead before she was 28 years old, Boyd said. If we are pro-life, we have to be concerned with more than just the baby in utero. No one looked out for my mother. No one looked out for me once I was born. Boyd said she noticed Republican lawmakers leaving the room as she and other women shared their personal stories.

In Arkansas, when state Rep. Ashley Hudson, a Democrat, proposed a rape and incest exception that was limited to children under 16 because we are talking about a situation where a 10-year-old child is being forced to carry a pregnancy that may kill her her Republican colleagues swiftly voted against it.

Republican Rep. Cindy Crawford countered with her experience operating a shelter for girls, where she said she had supported many 12-year-olds who gave birth.

Just because a young girl is pregnant and at 12 or whatever you think she should have an abortion, would you not agree that two wrongs dont make a right? That her mental health would be worse after she experienced an abortion? she asked Hudson.

I disagree and I would disagree that its up to me at all, Hudson replied.

All of those efforts failed.

Four states made minor changes to their total abortion bans, in close alignment with anti-abortion organizations.

In Idaho and Tennessee, doctors who first pushed for changes were cut out of the process after local anti-abortion organizations pressured lawmakers.

In North Dakota, the state repealed its abortion ban because of constitutional challenges. Then the representatives of local Catholic dioceses worked with the hospital association to pass a new bill that was nearly as strict as the original.

In Texas, a narrow bill quietly passed. It was put forward by Democrats, then changed by Republicans and specifically addresses court challenges.

In the four states, the new laws created exceptions for immediately life-threatening situations, such as ectopic pregnancies, where the fetus implants outside the uterine cavity, and molar pregnancies, where no embryo forms. The Texas law still allows doctors to be charged for providing abortion care for an ectopic pregnancy or if a patients water breaks before viability, but it codifies those conditions as a legitimate defense in court. The North Dakota law made some small concessions: A serious health risk is now defined as one that poses only substantial physical impairment to a major bodily function, not substantial and irreversible, for example.

Doctors said the new changes did little to help patients facing health risks or whose fetuses have severe anomalies. They said the exceptions are mainly limited to people who are already facing an emergency.

This was by design, according to some lawmakers, including Idaho state Sen. Todd Lakey, whose exceptions bill intentionally focused only on situations where a pregnant patient is facing death. That was our decision, was to focus on the life versus more of a health-type exception, he said. He said earlier that a womans health weighs less, yes, than the life of the child.

Also in Idaho, Democratic state Sen. Melissa Wintrow asked David Ripley, the leader of Idaho Chooses Life, why the laws new language couldnt include a broader exception for the health of the mother.

It sounds pretty easy to me to say, Hey, protect the health of the mother. Im at a loss as to why you cant put that language in the bill, she said during a hearing.

In the real world, were talking about a spectrum, Ripley responded. Were talking about death, and were talking about a headache. Idaho Chooses Life did not respond to a request for comment.

During the session, a state senator tried to remove Idahos exception for rape or incest. He failed, but the exception was limited to the first 12 weeks of pregnancy.

The exception, as with most abortion bans that have a rape or incest clause, requires a woman to produce a police report. Current law doesnt explicitly guarantee that rape or incest victims can get copies of their own reports when an investigation is open, said Wintrow.

When Tennessee Republicans introduced a bill to give doctors more protection to offer terminations when a pregnant patient faced a condition that could become life-threatening, Will Brewer, the lead lobbyist for Tennessee Right to Life, testified against it, arguing the patients condition needed to deteriorate before a doctor could intervene.

There are issues with pregnancy that could be considered an emergency or at least could possibly be considered an anomaly or medically futile that work themselves out, Brewer, who has no medical training, testified on the House floor. Im not talking about an eleventh hour, you know, a patient comes into the ER bleeding out, and what do we do? Im talking about (a situation when) there is a condition here that some doctors would say constitutes an emergency worthy of a termination and other doctors would say, Lets pause and wait this out and see how it goes. I wouldnt want the former to terminate when the latter says theres room to see how it goes before this is urgent enough.

He also opposed language that would allow doctors to prevent medical emergencies instead of treating active emergencies.

That prevent language has me concerned because that would mean that the emergency hasnt even occurred yet, he said. Brewer did not respond to a request for comment.

Doctors say that real-life pregnancy complications are rarely so cut and dried. In many cases, patients can go from stable to requiring life support in a matter of minutes.

It is not always so clear, and things dont always just work themselves out, said Dr. Kim Fortner, a Tennessee maternal-fetal medicine specialist with 20 years of experience, testifying at the same hearing.

And doctors point out that health risks that are not immediately life-threatening can still have severe consequences.

Conditions like hypertension or blood clots within the veins that are not life-threatening in the first trimester could cause death as the pregnancy progresses, said Dr. Carrie Cwiak, an OB-GYN in Georgia. In those cases, it should be the patients decision whether to continue their pregnancy not their doctors or their legislators decision, she said.

Tennessee Right to Life is part of a network of Christian special-interest groups that represents a minority of voters but wields outsized influence in Republican-majority legislatures. They use score cards to rate lawmakers on their fealty to anti-abortion causes and fund primary campaigns against Republicans who do not toe the line.

In February in Tennessee, for example, seven Republicans at a House subcommittee hearing expressed strong support for a bill written with input from doctors that would create exceptions for abortion care to prevent medical emergencies and for severe fetal anomalies.

No one wants to tell their spouse, child or loved one that their life is not important in a medical emergency as you watch them die when they could have been saved, said Republican state Rep. Esther Helton-Haynes, a nurse and one of the bills sponsors.

But Brewer, the Right to Life lobbyist, threatened during his testimony before the legislature that the groups political action committee would issue negative score cards to any lawmaker who voted for a health exception.

His comments drew a strong rebuke from the Republican speaker of the House that day. Afterward, Tennessee Right to Life sent out emails to their network of voters, urging them to contact lawmakers who supported the bill.

Tennessee state Sen. Richard Briggs, a physician, planned to introduce the same bill in the Senate because polling showed about 80% of Tennesseeans believe abortion should be either completely legal or legal under some conditions. But he told ProPublica the pressure was too much. He couldnt get the bill heard in any Senate committees after Right to Life came out against it.

Weeks later, Tennessee Right to Life supported a separate clarification bill that did not address the majority of the doctors concerns. No doctors were given the opportunity to speak in the legislature and the bill was quickly passed.

This is just pure power politics, said Briggs. Were going to have to address that were not listening to the voting public. And you know, we could lose. I mean, our people will start losing elections.

But in Louisiana, Mary DuBuisson, a Republican state representative who proposed a change to clarify that abortions are legal for people having miscarriages, lost her next election after the group ran attack ads against her.

In North Dakota, two Republican lawmakers considering an amendment to allow abortions after the six-week limit in cases of child rape said they would not vote for if it did not have the support of the North Dakota Catholic Conference, a group that acts on behalf of the states two Catholic dioceses. The amendment quickly failed.

In Idaho, an effort by doctors and the Idaho Medical Association to lobby a small health exception was stopped in its tracks when the chair of the Idaho Republican Party, Dorothy Moon, issued a letter accusing the medical association of being a progressive trade association that represents doctors educated in some of the farthest Left academic institutions in our country. Soon after, Republicans introduced a separate bill that cut out the doctors and was written with the input of Idaho Chooses Life.

In the four states that did pass bills, the changes were limited and designed to respond to court challenges.

For example, in Idaho, a state district judge found that their no-exception abortion ban violated a federal law that requires emergency departments to treat pregnant patients facing an emergency. The clarification bill, supported by Idaho Chooses Life, made a small exception for life-threatening emergencies, ectopic pregnancies and molar pregnancies, targeted to deflect the judges argument.

Idaho and Tennessee wanted to keep their law intact, said Ingrid Duran, the legislative director for National Right to Life. Her organization didnt want to see changes to the bans, but, she said, I understand why they needed to do that, just to remove the wind from the sails of the opposition.

The law has continued to make practicing maternal care in Idaho untenable for some doctors. They say the law is still unclear about the level of risk a patient must be facing for a doctor to offer abortion.

Idaho still has no exceptions for mom unless we know 100% theyre dying, said Dr. Lauren Miller, a maternal-fetal medicine specialist who has since left the state, part of an exodus of OB-GYNs who have moved due to the abortion ban.

Blaine Conzatti, the president of Idaho Family Policy Center, a group that helped pass the original version of the no-exception abortion law, said his organization did not want to see the law clarified.

We would want a stricter standard than what this law allows, he said. In his groups view, abortion is almost never ethical.

The only appropriate reason for abortion would be treating the mother and the unintended consequence is the death of the preborn child, he said. If the mother got cancer and you began treating her with chemo and radiation and the unintended consequence is that the baby dies, thats ethically appropriate. But performing an abortion procedure to terminate the pregnancy is not ethically appropriate.

For the anti-abortion movement, the goal has always been total abortion bans with no exceptions and constitutional recognition that a fetus has the same rights as a person, said Mary Ziegler, a leading historian of the U.S. abortion debate.

This unyielding position was influenced by thinkers like Charles E. Rice, a law professor at the University of Notre Dame whose 1990 book No Exception: A Pro-Life Imperative, argues that the anti-abortion movement should not support any exceptions even for the life of the pregnant person.

If two people are on a one-man raft in the middle of the ocean, the law does not permit one to throw the other overboard even to save his own life, he wrote.

The Catholic Church and the anti-abortion movement also have a history of celebrating the stories of women who were willing to sacrifice their lives to continue their pregnancies.

One of the most well-known stories is about Chiara Corbella Petrillo, a young Italian woman who refused chemotherapy in 2011 for cancer on her tongue because she was pregnant. As the cancer progressed, it became difficult for her to speak and see. A year after giving birth to a healthy baby boy, she died.

Live Action, a major anti-abortion advocacy group, included Petrillo on a list of 7 Brave Mothers Who Risked Their Lives to Save Their Preborn Babies.

In a culture where women are bombarded with the message that convenience and worldly achievement are tantamount even overriding their childrens right to life it is refreshing to see women who have defied the norm, an editor for the organization wrote.

In anti-abortion circles, Petrillo has been described as a heroine for the 21st century and a modern day saint.

Her story was turned into a book, which appeared on a 2016 Mothers Day gift list in the magazine Catholic Digest. The Catholic Church has opened an inquiry to consider whether Petrillo should be elevated to sainthood.

For decades, major anti-abortion groups did not see a no-exceptions approach as politically possible. Groups including National Right to Life and Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America instead made gains by pressuring lawmakers to chip away at abortion protections via targeted restrictions that strangled access but wouldnt curtail the basic right enshrined in Roe v. Wade. Between 2011 and 2017, 50 abortion clinics in the South closed due to the new laws.

But after Donald Trump was elected and began filling the Supreme Court with judges handpicked by the Federalist Society, a network of conservative and libertarian lawyers, some influential anti-abortion activists saw an opening for more radical action.

Paul Benjamin Linton was one of them. A longtime Catholic legal activist, he had argued against Rices commitment to a no-exceptions position that had no chance in the Supreme Court not because he disagreed with it morally, but because he believed an incremental strategy would result in more babies being born. (Linton did not respond to emails and voicemails.)

After Trumps election, he shifted to supporting banning abortion completely. Linton began drafting legislation that did not include explicit exceptions for the life or health of the pregnant person. Starting in 2019, he promoted some of the countrys strictest abortion bans in Tennessee, Idaho, and Texas. Those trigger laws, unenforceable at the time they were passed, became a stark reality for millions of people of childbearing age when Roe was overturned. Though slightly modified in 2023, they continue to sharply limit the ability of doctors to provide abortions to patients facing health risks.

To many doctors in the most restrictive abortion-ban states who participated in the 2023 legislative session, the path forward offers few signs of hope. Some see little appetite from lawmakers and lobbyists to continue pushing for new exceptions unless the political calculus changes significantly.

Nikki Zite, a doctor involved in the effort to add exceptions to Tennessees abortion law, said she and her colleagues across the state have been asking lobbyists what the strategy is for a renewed push in the next session. I was hopeful that these issues would be revisited and we might have more success, Zite said. But Im hearing the excuse, Its an election year and theres a supermajority of Republicans and that its very unlikely to go anywhere.

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Powerful Activists and Lawmakers Have Blocked Post-Roe Abortion ... - ProPublica

Will Donald Trump win the 2024 Republican nomination? – Yahoo News

Former President Donald Trump's 2024 presidential campaign is underway, but he's not the only person battling for the Republican nomination: Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley, entrepreneur and "anti-woke" activist Vivek Ramaswamy and others make up a crowded GOP field currently led by the former president.

Meanwhile, however, Trump is up against several historic indictments, one of which pertains to his alleged attempts to interfere with the outcome of the 2020 presidential election, which resulted in the Capitol riot on Jan. 6, 2021. Another involves his alleged mishandling of classified documents at his private Florida resort. He was also indicted in Georgia on charges related to his actions during the 2020 election and is facing additional charges in New York for allegedly falsifying business records. With his competition and legal woes in mind, how likely is Trump to win the 2024 nomination?

DeSantis at one time appeared to be Trump's main competition. The governor was reelected during the 2022 midterms in a landslide, but has been besieged by a campaign that The Washington Post described in August as "almost uniformly negative."

As a result of DeSantis' lackluster performance, Trump still dominates the polls and is continuing to rise. A Nov. 16 Iowa State University poll with a 5.9% margin of error found DeSantis lagging far behind Trump in the crucial Iowa caucus, with only 18% of GOP respondents in the state likely to vote for him. The Florida governor also has competition on his tail, as Nikki Haley is catching up to him with 12%. Both of them are nowhere close to Trump, though, who received 54% in the poll, placing him in the drivers seat in Iowa. Nationally, FiveThirtyEights poll aggregate showed DeSantis trailing the former president by nearly 50 points as of Nov. 22.

There's nothing in the Constitution that prohibits an indicted person, or even a convicted felon, from running for president, and among Republicans, Trump gained in the polls following his first indictment in April. While this wasn't the case during his second indictment, he did get a boost after his third in August; according to a RealClearPolitics national poll aggregation cited by Intelligencer, Trump's support was at 53.9% on Aug. 1, the day he was indicted for the third time. As of Aug. 13, it had risen to 54.2%. This is despite the fact that a majority of Americans 65% classified Trump's Jan. 6-related indictment as "serious" in an ABC News/Ipsos poll. In all, FiveThirtyEights national aggregate has Trump holding a 60.2% lead among Republicans as of Nov. 22, far outpacing any other GOP candidate and representing a three-point jump since the beginning of November.

Trump's continued support could be partially because, given the multiple indictments now under his belt, "the novelty of a former leader of the United States being called a felon has somehow worn off," The New York Times reported. It has become clear from his steady polling numbers that "most Americans made up their minds about [Trump] long before prosecutors ... weighed in." So it appears that his indictments may not play a major factor in his getting the nomination unless the landscape changes drastically.

Haley, a former governor of South Carolina who previously said she wouldn't run if Trump did, was one of the first to enter the race and was described by the New Statesman as an extremist in moderate clothing. And while she started off slow, polls show her creeping up; while the aforementioned Iowa State poll shows her trailing DeSantis in the states primary, a Des Moines Register poll in October had her tied with the Florida governor.

Ramaswamy entered the race as a dark-horse candidate, and The Associated Press noted that his candidacy is still a longshot bid. However, his poll numbers have been rising, which made him the primary target at the GOPs first (and Trump-less) presidential debate. Ramaswamy, who wrote a book decrying woke-ism and pushed to eliminate affirmative action and various government agencies, is currently sitting at 6% in the Iowa State poll, coming in fourth place behind Trump, DeSantis and Haley.

Chris Christie has been the most vocal critic against Trump from the GOPs pack of candidates. Since the second indictment, Christie, a former prosecutor, has made many public remarks about Trump's handling of classified documents. What Christie is saying is "very, very important," Frank Bruni wrote in the Times. He's telling the unvarnished truth about Trump, and he's the only candidate doing that ... he's artfully, aggressively and comprehensively making the case against Trump. Christies poll numbers remain low, however; as of Nov. 22, FiveThirtyEights aggregate placed him at 2.8% nationally, a drop from the beginning of October. He is also polling at just 3% in the Iowa State poll, which could put his campaign in further jeopardy.

Trump has also lost a number of foes in the race, including his old second-in-command, former Vice President Mike Pence. The former vice president suspended his presidential campaign on Oct. 28, saying it was not my time. However, Trump likely never had much to worry about in that regard, as Pences campaign was besieged by financial struggles and consistently low national polling.

South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott also ended his bid for the presidency, announcing in an interview on Nov. 12 that the country was telling him, not now. Scott had entered the race trying to paint himself as a moderate Republican who is a supporter of "traditional conservative values." Like Pence, though, Scotts campaign saw low polling numbers and enthusiasm throughout its short run.

Neither Pence nor Scott endorsed anyone for president after suspending their campaigns.

In the 2022 midterms, Trump saw almost all of his endorsed candidates lose by large margins. "It's basically the third election in a row that Donald Trump has cost us the race, and it's like, three strikes, you're out," former Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan (R) told CNN.

Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) would also like to see a fresh face as the GOP's 2024 nominee and said in May she wants someone other than Trump or DeSantis at the top of the Republican ticket. Otherwise, "if that's the contest, Republicans are doomed," she declared.

And its not just politicians who dont want Trump to be the nominee. An April AP/NORC poll of 1,230 adults found that 44% of Republicans dont want the former president to run for the White House again, in addition to 63% of independents who felt the same. However, that same poll found that 86% of Republicans also felt that the indictments against Trump were politically motivated.

Quite a few Republicans. Rep. Elise Stefanik of New York, the chair of the House Republican Conference, is one of the highest-ranking GOP members to publicly support Trump's 2024 bid. Rep. Ronny Jackson of Texas, a physician who was previously Trump's medical adviser, tweeted, "President Trump is the greatest President I've ever seen. I'm on his side 100%!"

Other Republicans who have endorsed the former president include Alaska Gov. Mike Dunleavy, South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem, West Virginia Gov. Jim Justice, 11 GOP senators, and 76 GOP House members, per Insider.The newly-elected speaker of the House, Mike Johnson, is also a staunch supporter of Trump, and notably led efforts in 2020 to try and overturn then-President-elect Joe Bidens victory. Given that Johnson is now the de facto leader of the House of Representatives, his support of Trump could loom large as the election draws closer.

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Will Donald Trump win the 2024 Republican nomination? - Yahoo News

The Republicans to watch on Tuberville’s blockade – POLITICO

With assists from POLITICOs Congress team

Agrowing number of Republicans sound like theyre ready to cough up the nine votes needed to allow the stalled military promotions to move forward without a permanent rules change. | Francis Chung/POLITICO

TUBERVILLE ON CUSP OF DEFEAT ON HIS PENTAGON HOLDS

With precious little time left in the year, Democrats are gearing up to finally break through Sen. Tommy Tubervilles (R-Ala.) months-long blockade of military promotions.

Their goal to act before the holidays is purposeful, since the group of Pentagon picks hes been holding up will have to be reconsidered in committee next year unless the Senate acts. And a growing number of Republicans sound like theyre ready to cough up the nine votes needed to allow the stalled military promotions to move forward without a permanent rules change.

Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.), who sits on the Armed Services Committee, told us that he predicts enough Republicans would support the rules change in December to get it to the needed 60 votes.

I think when we actually get the opportunity to vote on this, I think were gonna have more people vote on it than we expect, Kelly said.

Your refresher: Its been nearly a year since the Alabama conservative began his hold on military promotions. Majority Leader Chuck Schumer has not yet said exactly when he plans to call a vote on essentially bundling most military nominees to get them through the Senate a maneuver crafted to circumvent Tuberville that would expire at the end of the current two-year session of Congress.

Every day that goes by, this problem gets worse, Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) told reporters Tuesday. It would be nice if more than 400 of our military leaders could get their promotions and assignments to their next duty stations before Christmas. Were aiming for that. But this all rests with rounding up enough Republican votes to shut Tuberville down.

So which Republicans might flip? Tuberville spoke with his GOP colleagues during weekly Senate lunches Tuesday. As they left the room, several of them told reporters that its time to find a solution to Tubervilles one-man protest of a Biden administration policy that allows service members to travel for abortion access.

I can just simply say that in private conversations, many of my colleagues are very, very frustrated, Sen. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa) said Tuesday.

When asked when Republicans would like to see a change, she responded: There is no hard and fast deadline.

Some Republicans wont say yet where they stand on the vote.

Ive been opposed to Sen. Tubervilles hold since the beginning and I am taking a look at the proposed change, the standing order, Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) told reporters Tuesday.

Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) also said he is open to voting on the resolution.

Who else to watch: Several other Senate Republicans have expressed frustration over Tubervilles hold and are seen by Democrats as potential yes votes. In addition to Ernst, Collins and Tillis, that group includes Sens. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), Mitt Romney (R-Utah), Todd Young (R-Ind.), Dan Sullivan (R-Alaska) and Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska).

Daniella Diaz and Joe Gould

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GOOD EVENING! Welcome to Huddle, the play-by-play guide to all things Capitol Hill, on this Monday, Nov. 28, where the Capitol is the most festive its been in a decade with no looming shutdown threat for now!

SANTOS EXPULSION WATCH: WHERES GUEST?

Reps. Robert Garcia (D-Calif.) and Dan Goldman (D-N.Y.) moved forward earlier Tuesday with their own proposal to expel embattled Rep. George Santos (R-N.Y.) from Congress. Which leaves the House watching for Ethics Committee Chair Michael Guest (R-Miss.) to beat them with his own privileged resolution on the matter.

Welcome back to, as Olivia dubbed it in Mondays Huddle, the resolutionary war. House Republicans have already indicated that they wont support a measure to expel Santos introduced by Democrats but if Guest moves forward with his resolution, our reporting suggests that there would be enough votes to boot the indicted New Yorker.

House GOP leaders dont plan to whip their members on the Santos expulsion vote, according to two people who spoke to Olivia about Tuesdays Republican leadership meeting on condition of anonymity.

Remember: If all Democrats vote to boot Santos, then about 80 House Republicans would need to come on board to secure the two-thirds threshold needed for expulsion. Nearly 70 GOP members said ahead of Congress return that they plan to or strongly lean towards voting to oust him, according to POLITICOs whip count.

Daniella Diaz and Olivia Beavers

D.C.S HOTTEST LEADERSHIP ELECTION IS DPCC

When House Democrats come together for their weekly meeting on Wednesday, theres a leadership election on the schedule: a new co-chair of the DPCC, the caucus messaging arm.

Reps. Lori Trahan (D-Mass.) and Jason Crow (D-Colo.) are vying for the slot vacated by Rep. Dean Phillips (D-Minn.), who stepped down from the position earlier this year weeks before launching his longshot bid for president.

In their bids to lock up colleagues votes, Trahan passed around Sweet Lydias Smores a tasty treat from her home base of Lowell, Mass. while Crow sent copies of Democracy Awakening by Heather Cox Richardson. (Yep, the same book that President Joe Biden was recently spotted picking up while on vacation.)

Crow also passed a card around Tuesday with his pitch touting his working class and national security background as well as his credentials as a former frontliner and Donald Trump impeachment manager.

Speaking with my colleagues over the past two months has been incredibly rewarding, Trahan said in a statement to Huddle. Win or lose, Im more confident than ever that House Democrats are prepared to defeat extremism and retake the majority next November.

Nicholas Wu

The gingerbread Capitol is back! (And it smells really good.)

Congressional interns are organizing in support of a ceasefire.

Is Christmas ruined?

QUICK LINKS

House GOP chaos might just give Senate GOP a fundraising edge, from Ursula Perano, Ally Mutnick, and Sally Goldenberg

Millions of U.S. apples were almost left to rot. Now, theyll go to hungry families, from Alan Jinich at NPR

Clay Higgins compares move to expel George Santos from Congress to crucifixion, from Mark Ballard at The Times-Picayune

How Patrick McHenrys convictions held the House when there was nothing to guide us, from Reese Gorman at The Washington Examiner

TRANSITIONS

Christopher Hadad has been promoted to be legislative director for Rep. Bill Pascrell (D-N.J.). He most recently was his economic policy adviser.

Dylan Sodaro is now chief of staff and Matt Rauschenbach is now press secretary for Rep. Gabe Amo (D-R.I.). Sodaro most recently was deputy chief of staff and legislative director for Rep. Bill Pascrell (D-N.J.) and Rauschenbach most recently was comms director for Amos congressional campaign.

Carolina Ferrerosa Young is now chief economic adviser to Vice President Kamala Harris. She most recently was economic policy adviser for Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio).

Tanushri Shankar is now chief of staff for Moms Demand Action for Gun Sense in America. She most recently was deputy chief of staff to Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) and is an Everytown for Gun Safety alum.

A message from American Chemistry Council Chemistry Creates America Competes:

TOMORROW IN CONGRESS

The House is in session.

The Senate is in session.

WEDNESDAY AROUND THE HILL

11:30 a.m. Rep. Terri Sewell, Congressional Black Caucus Chairman Steven Horsford and CBC members will hold a press conference to push for Rosa Parks Federal Holiday. (House Triangle)

1 p.m. Natural Resources Chair Bruce Westerman and Ranking Member Ral Grijalva will hold a press conference to unveil the EXPLORE Act. (House Triangle)

2 p.m. The House Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on Middle East, North Africa, and Central Asia members will hold roundtable with family members of individuals being held hostage by Hamas. (2200 RHOB)

2 p.m. Sens. Rick Scott, Mike Lee, Ron Johnson, Mike Braun and Roger Marshall, as well as Reps. Scott Perry, Chip Roy, Bob Good and Andy Biggs will host a press conference on border security in the supplemental and appropriations bills. (Senate Radio-TV Gallery)

3:30 p.m. Select Committee on the Communist Party of China Chair Mike Gallagher will hold a White Paper Movement anniversary commemoration. (House Triangle)

A message from American Chemistry Council Chemistry Creates America Competes:

Our nations supply chain runs on the U.S. business of chemistry. When chemistry creates, America competes.

Semiconductors, automotive, healthcare, infrastructure, and energy all rely on chemistry. From EVs to smartphones, Americas chemical manufacturers power innovations we cant live without.

Unfortunately, regulatory overload and lack of coordination between the White House and its agencies is handicapping American chemistrys ability to create products that support national priorities, jeopardizing the economy and Americas ability to compete with countries like China. This tidal wave of unduly restrictive regulations could disrupt the supply chain for crucial technologies and everyday products.

President Biden and his administration need to understand how vital chemistry is to the supply chain when it comes to making the things America and the world cant live without. The Biden Administration and Congress must support policies that empower chemistry, promote American innovation, and strengthen U.S. competitiveness. Learn more Chemistry Creates, America Competes.

MONDAYS ANSWER: Carlton Huffman correctly answered that the text in yesterdays Huddle Trivia is attributable to Bobby Kennedys On the Mindless Menace of Violence speech following the assassination of Martin Luther King Jr.

TODAYS QUESTION from Carlton: In the aftermath of Dr. Kings assassination Robert Kennedy spoke eloquently about the path forward for civil rights and kept the peace in Indianapolis the night of April 4, 1968. What civil rights icon, pupil of Dr. Kings in non-violent protest, and future Presidential Medal of Freedom winner worked on RFKs 82 day quest for the White House?

The first person to correctly guess gets a mention in the next edition of Huddle. Send your answers to [emailprotected].

GET HUDDLE emailed to your phone each evening.

Follow Daniella on X at @DaniellaMicaela.

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The Republicans to watch on Tuberville's blockade - POLITICO

Wisconsin Assembly to vote on Republican Iowa-style redistricting bill – WKOW

MADISON (WKOW) -- On Tuesday, Speaker Robin Vos held a press conference announcing that Wisconsin's Republican-led Assembly was moving forward with a vote on a bill mimicking Iowa's nonpartisan redistricting model.

The announcement came sometime after Wisconsin Republicans floated threats to impeach Justice Janet Protasiewicz if she chose not to recuse herself from a lawsuit challenging the state's electoral maps, claiming Protasiewicz had a vested interest in the case after calling the maps "rigged."

Vos said the plan would serve as an alternative to impeachment and that Democrats should support the bill as it meets their demands for a more fair redistricting process.

Democrats immediately spoke against the bill, Governor Tony Evers among them, arguing that the state's Republican legislature could not be trusted to oversee the process and its decision to introduce the bill now raises flags.

The bill lacks a provision of the Iowa model that would allow the Supreme Court to draw the maps if the legislature can't agreea move motivated by the court's now-liberal majority.

"Of course, the red herring that they are throwing out is that this takes the Supreme Court out of the mix. That's actually not true, because we know under any circumstance, unfortunately, Wisconsin has been fairly commonplace that if the legislature and the governor can't agree to a map, it goes to the court", said Vos.

Vos clarified he never said he wanted to impeach Protasiewicz, stating the new bill was an opportunity to avoid wasting taxpayer dollars by bringing the lawsuit to trial.

However, on Wednesday, Vos contradicted himself, confirming he had developed a counsel of former Supreme Court justices to advise him on the possibility of impeaching Protasiewicz.

27 News spoke with Republican Representative Todd Novak about that decision, who said the Democrats' response contradicted their demands but said there would be time to get some members on board.

"Why bring the Supreme Court in. I think everybody's getting confused as the Iowa Constitution says the Supreme Court, our Constitution says the legislature does not involve the Supreme Court, and that was a recommendation from Legislative Reference Bureau to make it match our Constitution," said Novak.

Once the Assembly votes on the bill, it will go to the Senate for a hearing.

Read more from the original source:
Wisconsin Assembly to vote on Republican Iowa-style redistricting bill - WKOW

Hunter Biden’s lawyer accuses House Republicans of … – POLITICO

Your blatant efforts achieved your goal as the U.S. Attorney in Delaware today filed gun charges against our client charges that are unprecedented when not part of some other criminal conduct and have been found unconstitutional by a federal court of appeals and who reversed his earlier decision that such charges were not warranted, Lowell wrote. Your improper interference now affecting a federal prosecutor is a much greater threat to society than the 11 days that Mr. Biden possessed an unloaded gun.

The letter marks a major escalation in the fight between the presidents son and the Hill Republicans who have made him a focus of their recently announced impeachment inquiry targeting the president.

The letter also accuses the committees witnesses of violating federal laws protecting grand jury and tax information, and accuses Republicans of misusing their investigation to dump wholesale protected tax information about Mr. Biden into public view.

Tristan Leavitt, an attorney with the nonprofit group Empower Oversight, who represents one of the IRS whistleblowers, defended his client in a statement to POLITICO.

Here we go again, he said in a statement. Hunter Bidens attorneys have already made this argument to Judge Maryellen Noreika, who reviewed the whistleblower materials and rejected defense counsels baseless allegations, including their claims about grand jury secrecy violations. Taxpayer privacy laws are written by Congress, and it gave itself authority in those laws to hear disclosures about taxpayer information. Whether Congress decides to make that information public pursuant to its statutory process is up to them.

Spokespersons for the Republican chairs did not immediately respond to requests for comment. Nor did a spokesperson for Bidens legal team.

The tranche of material sent to the three committee chairs included a letter that Lowell sent on Aug. 14 of this year to prosecutors working on the Hunter Biden investigation, including the U.S. Attorney supervising the probe. That letter accused two IRS whistleblowers who worked on the investigation of illegally sharing information about the probe with Congress and the public, including in media interviews. That letter included exhibits containing multiple other communications that Hunter Bidens legal team sent to Justice Department officials over the course of the last year.

Lowell also said that the actions of the two IRS agents pressured the Justice Department to change its position in plea deal negotiations. Before one of the whistleblowers discussed the case on a national TV interview, the Justice Department was weighing a consensual non-prosecution resolution to all conduct under investigation, where the resolution proposed by both sides did not include any guilty plea, Lowell wrote. But one day after the interview aired, he added, prosecutors said they would require Biden to plead guilty to misdemeanor tax charges.

Link:
Hunter Biden's lawyer accuses House Republicans of ... - POLITICO