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PoliticsFormer state Rep. Geoff Diehl and businessman Chris Doughty sparred on Howie Carr's show on Wednesday.Chris Doughty, left, and Geoff Diehl. John Tlumacki, Globe Staff / Steven Senne, AP Photo

In their first debate on Wednesday, Republican gubernatorial primary candidates Geoff Diehl, a former state representative, and Chris Doughty, a businessman, quibbled over what their respective resumes would mean for the corner office and punctuated their squabbles with attacks questioning Diehls electability in Massachusetts and jabs at Doughtys businesss run-ins with state environmental regulators.

But moments of common ground shone through, with both candidates expressing an urgent concern for the Bay States ability to maintain a competitive edge in attracting and retaining businesses and to provide an affordable economy for families, lest their differing opinions in how to tackle those issues.

Indeed, the hour-long segment on The Howie Carr Show, the conservative talk-radio program, moderated by the shows namesake, brought into view just how much the race exhibits rivaling factions of the state party and, by extension, the climate of the national party in the age of Trump politics.

Diehl, who scooped up an endorsement from former President Donald Trump last fall, positioned himself as a dedicated conservative who will support law enforcement and take on culture-war battles, including through making sure inappropriate material for young kids is no longer in the classrooms.

Like Republican Gov. Charlie Baker, Diehl said he wants to make the state government more efficient but also with a strong hand, which I thought President Trump had, which was unafraid to take on the powers that be.

Whether it was the Democrats or whether it was the media, he absolutely put America first, and Im gonna make sure we put Massachusetts first, Diehl said.

Meanwhile, Doughty, president of metal gear manufacturer Capstan Atlantic and a first-time candidate who voted for Hilary Clinton in 2016, said Diehls candidacy itself was among the reasons he entered the race.

Diehl is running a campaign thats targeted to Alabama voters and here we are in Massachusetts, he said.

Doughty offered that Diehl, if victorious in the Sept. 6 primary, would certainly be unable to eek-out a victory over Democrat Maura Healey, the presumed Democratic nominee.

Hes going to lose. I know it. We all know he is going to lose, Doughty said. We need someone like myself because we are on the cusp of going to a single-party state and the disaster that will create.

Were already getting the feelings of it weve got to have a governor that can go in, hold the line, put a break on it, and begin rebuilding our party, Doughty continued. It does no good to select a candidate that is going to get creamed in the election.

Heres what the candidate said on three key topics:

From the first seconds of his opening statement, Doughty said his 30 years of creating local jobs have given him the expertise of what it takes to ensure Massachusetts has a booming economy across all sectors and make the state more affordable.

He vowed to reduce bureaucracy and wasteful regulation to help free up more tax dollars to cities and towns to fund essential services.

Itll allow us to begin to introduce a more competitive tax policy in Massachusetts, Doughty said. We cannot afford to lose more businesses like Raytheon.

Raytheon Technologies, the aerospace and defense giant currently headquartered in Waltham, announced last month the company will build a global headquarters in Arlington, Virginia.

The company has said, however, it will maintain its presence in Massachusetts. A press release announcing the new project also said it did not accept or seek any financial incentives from Virginia or Arlington for the new headquarters.

But the emphasis on Virginia over Massachusetts follows news last year that firearms manufacturer Smith & Wesson will leave behind its Springfield headquarters after operating for nearly 170 years in the commonwealth due, in part, to a state bill seeking to ban assault rifle production.

We need to make sure that youve got someone (in the governors office) who has a track record of trying to make sure the money comes back to the district and also lowers taxes so that we reduce the burden, increase the job growth, and make sure that businesses arent leaving not just Raytheon, but Smith and Wesson out in Western Massachusetts, Diehl said. We need to make sure they are there.

Doughty underscored his executive position in his company as proof he knows how to manage in a competitive industry, while Diehl pointed to his previous stint crafting the state budget on the Ways and Means Committee as well as the small business he owns with his wife and his job as director of business development for TRQ Auto Parts in Pepperell.

The work Ive been doing as a manufacturers rep. takes me out of state, takes me around the country working with partnerships, and of course I would like to take those businesses to Massachusetts to replace what were losing, Diehl said.

Doughty said he worries that without action, Massachusetts could see residents slip away because of affordability woes and, in turn, damage the states economy.

I worry that states like Virginia and Tennessee, New Hampshire and Florida are becoming more and more competitive against us, and because of that, were losing citizens and population, he said.

Though neither candidate mentioned the controversial critical race theory that has become a flashpoint of national political debate, both Diehl and Doughty expressed appetites for providing pathways to make the states education system and what its teaching students more accessible to parents and families.

Diehl said the next governor needs to ensure parents have a say in what is taught in classrooms.

He also voiced opposition to COVID-19 measures such as masks and vaccine mandates in schools. (The states mask requirement lifted in February, though some school districts opted to keep the policy in place past that point. Students are not required to be vaccinated against COVID-19 to attend schools.)

We cant have the masks keeping kids out of schools. We cant have the vaccines being forced on kids, Diehl said. Were seeing an increase in homeschooling an 11 percent increase in Massachusetts youre seeing parochial schools, Catholic schools, getting massive enrollments because parents are tired of the baloney thats going on in the (public) schools.

He added sexual preference material from ages kindergarten through third (grade) is totally wrong.

Diehl didnt provide specific context for the comment, but he made a similar remark in May after talking to parents in Billerica who were concerned about very inappropriate books allowed in elementary schools.

A handful of states have prohibited or limited how and when teachers can cover gender identity and sexual orientation, particularly with young students, with more states considering following suit. Florida, for example, passed a law in March banning teachers from covering those subjects from kindergarten through grade 3 in a manner that is not age-appropriate or developmentally appropriate for students in accordance with state standards.

I have two daughters. I was not going to talk sex ed with them that was my wifes role, Diehl said during Wednesdays debate. There is no way a teacher, someone outside the family, should be talking to our kids about sexual preference, especially at that young an age.

Diehl said he would appoint a Department and Elementary and Secondary Education commissioner who shares that view.

He also expressed a desire to make sure local school committees are more representative of parents.

A lot of the times they have teachers on there, former administrators they have people who have ties to the school itself, the administration, he said. It should be parents for the most part. I want to support those people getting on the boards and then being able to speak up. Theyve been shut down.

Doughty, though, noted there are limitations to what a governor can do.

But, one of the things the states top executive does have the power to do is select a secretary of education who is focused on education, not activism, Doughty said.

Its an important part of hiring, he said. Ive been hiring people for 30 years. Im very good at picking out who are the right candidates. Ill give them the right mission, the right objective. Ill measure them as I would one of my employees are we performing the way parents expect from us?

Doughty said he would also establish a phone hotline parents can call when they feel like their child is being taught something that is inappropriate.

I would like to commend all the teachers. I have been absolutely amazed by the quality of our teaching and our administrators, he said. But I think there are cases where there (should be) a line you can call when you feel like your child is being taught something that is inappropriate.

Lastly, Doughty vowed to roll out a gap analysis to take the pulse of the states public education system.

On day one, Im going to start a 100-day gap analysis of our schools to make sure parents are satisfied (and) know what were doing, he said.

At times during Wednesdays debate, Doughty sought to cast Diehl as incapable of giving Republicans a fighting chance at beating Healey in November.

Doughty noted his opponent lost a bid for state Senate in 2015, three years before his subsequent and unsuccessful run for U.S. Senate against Sen. Elizabeth Warren, a statewide election Diehl lost by over 20 percentage points.

Geoff wont win the general election Its already over, Doughty said in his closing statement. A vote for Geoff Diehl is a vote for Maura Healey. You can love him, embrace him. But when you go to the voting box, you and I know, we vote for Geoff, hes going to get killed in the general and we end up with the disaster known as Maura Healey.

Diehl fired back: Theres your loyal Republican coming in out of the blue and running for governor.

And when you lose, he said to Doughty, youre going to be gone Im sure again.

Earlier in the debate, Diehl noted Baker didnt win the first time he ran for governor, but did so the second time.

I can tell you this though: A vote for Chris Doughty is going to be a vote for the next Democrat, Diehl said in his closing remarks, before turning his remarks to Doughty specifically. I mean, Hilary Clinton is thinking about running again for president. In 16 you voted for her, maybe shell get your support if youre governor, right?

Diehls attacks on Doughty, meanwhile, centered on Doughtys claim that, if elected, he would run the state like he runs his business.

Diehl pointed to over a dozen environmental violations allegedly committed by Doughtys company, Capstan Atlantic, and claimed the company has 18 out-of-court settlements with employees.

As governor, you need to be someone who you can trust in government to make sure that you are looking out for workers, Diehl said.

In April, The Sun Chronicle reported the company, in February, entered an administrative consent order with the states Department of Environmental Protection to agree to correct the issues and pay a penalty of $1,380.

A company representative told the newspaper at the time Capstan Atlantic was speaking with state officials to resolve other problems, but that the violations were minor in nature.

Doughty, in his response to Diehl, said he runs a large and complicated business, which boasts 300 employees.

There are issues that come up with the state all the time, he said. This is why Im running. This is why the state of Massachusetts needs me because we are not business friendly.

Diehl rebutted: Im glad you want to help out your business and make sure you have more legal loopholes so you dont have these environmental violations. Thats a great goal.

It was unclear Thursday whether the two will meet again before Sept. 6.

Doughty said Diehl has not agreed to another debate.

The Diehl campaign earlier this month, in the face of another debate challenge from Doughty, however, affirmed it has only committed to two radio debates: one on Carrs show and another on Jeff Kuhners The Kuhner Report on WRKO.

Kuhner, notably, has supported Diehl before, having, at least,appeared with Diehl for a campaign fundraiserduring Diehls unsuccessful U.S. Senate run and havingendorsed him in 2020 for the Republican State Committee.

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3 key moments from the first, and maybe only, Republican gubernatorial debate - Boston.com

Democratic Rep. Jamie Raskin of Maryland, a former constitutional law professor, has made a habit of laying into his Republican colleagues for their moronic interpretations of American law.

Perhaps you remember: In March, he schooled former Trump White House staffers Peter Navarro and Dan Scavino with an explainer on why Donald Trump has no authority as a former president to claim executive privilege and bar them from testifying before the House Jan. 6 committee.

At this point, Republicans goading Raskin into a constitutional law debate is like poking a black belt in the chest while wearing a gi. They know what they're signing up for.

Of course, that hasnt deterred Republicans from testing their hands anyway. On Wednesday, Raskin dispensed with the tired GOP argument that gun restrictions are unlawful because the framers of the Constitution wanted Americans to be able to wage war against their government. He had to teach Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, R-Ga., a similar lesson in June. This time around, it was Rep. Chip Roy, R-Texas, who set it off.

The clip of Raskin telling off Roy is quite gratifying and he even got an applause at the end.

Check out the clip below. And welcome, once more, to Raskin's Constitution 101. Class is in session.

Ja'han Jones is The ReidOut Blog writer. He's a futurist and multimedia producer focused on culture and politics. His previous projects include "Black Hair Defined" and the "Black Obituary Project."

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Rep. Raskin: Jan. 6 committee will strongly oppose witness tampering, obstructions of justice - MSNBC

Until just the other day, Republicans and conservative media loved, just loved talking about the price of gasoline. Indeed, Remember how cheap gas used to be under Trump? became a sort of all-purpose answer to everything. Is there now overwhelming evidence that the former president conspired in a violent attempt to overthrow the 2020 election? Real America doesnt care about the January 6th Committee. Gas is over $5 a gallon! declared Representative Jim Jordan.

But now gas prices are falling. Theyre down more than 50 cents a gallon at the pump; wholesale prices, whose changes normally show up later in retail prices, are down even more, suggesting that prices will keep falling for at least the next few weeks. And theres a palpable sense of panic on Fox News, which has been reduced to whining about how the White House is taking a victory lap.

Actually, from what I can see, Biden administration officials are being remarkably restrained in pointing out the good news (which is probably a result of a slowing global economy). The larger point, however, is that Republican politicians focus on gas prices is profoundly stupid. And if its coming back to bite them, thats just poetic justice.

Why is focusing on gas prices stupid? Let me count the ways.

First, while presidential policy can have big effects on many things, the cost of filling your gas tank isnt one of them. For the most part, gasoline prices reflect the price of crude oil and crude prices are set on world markets, which is one reason inflation has soared around the world, not just in the United States. Government spending in the Biden administrations early months may have contributed to overall U.S. inflation we can argue about how much but has hardly anything to do with gas prices.

Second, while gas was indeed cheap in 2020, it was cheap for a very bad reason: Global demand for oil was depressed because the world economy was reeling from the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic.

Third, even before the pandemic struck, gas prices were unsustainably low.

Little-known fact: Prices at the pump plunged during President Barack Obamas second term, falling from about $3.70 a gallon in mid-2014 around $4.50 in 2022 dollars to $2.23 on the eve of the 2016 election. News reports at the time marveled at Obamas diffidence about claiming credit.

What happened? Mostly a boom in fracking, which increased U.S. oil production so much that it drove prices down around the world. As it turned out, however, that production boom didnt make financial sense. Energy companies borrowed huge sums to invest in new drilling but never generated enough revenue to justify the cost. The fracking industry lost hundreds of billions even before the pandemic struck.

So high gas prices werent President Bidens fault, and given the disappearance of the forces that used to keep gas cheap, its hard to think of any policy short of creating a global depression that would bring prices down to $2 a gallon, or even $3 a gallon. Not that Republicans are offering any real policy proposals anyway.

But the G.O.P. nonetheless went for the cheap shot of trying to make the midterm elections largely about prices at the pump. And this focus on gas is now giving the party a bellyache, as gas prices come down.

It is, after all, hard to spend month after month insisting that Biden deserves all the blame for rising gas prices, then deny him any credit when they come down. The usual suspects are, of course, trying, but its not likely to go well.

Some right-wing commentators are trying to pivot to a longer view, pointing out that gas prices are still much higher than they were in 2020. This happens to be true. But so much of their messaging has depended on voter amnesia on their supporters not remembering what was really going on in 2020 that I have my doubts about how effective this line will be.

More broadly, many Wall Street analysts expect to see a sharp drop in inflation over the next few months, reflecting multiple factors, from falling used car prices to declining shipping costs, not just gas prices. Market expectations of near-term inflation have come way down.

If the analysts and the markets are right, were probably headed for a period in which inflation headlines are better than the true state of affairs; its not clear whether underlying inflation has come down much, if at all. But thats not an argument Republicans, who have done all they can to dumb down the inflation debate, are well placed to make.

This has obvious implications for the midterm elections. Republicans have been counting on inflation to give them a huge victory, despite having offered no explanation of what theyd do about it. But if you look at the generic ballot which probably doesnt yet reflect falling gas prices rather than Bidens approval rating, the midterms look surprisingly competitive.

Maybe real Americans do care about violent attacks on democracy, overturning Roe v. Wade and so on after all.

If we continue to get good news on inflation, November may look very different from what everyone has been expecting.

Go here to read the rest:
Opinion | Why Republicans Are Having Gas Pains - The New York Times

GRAND HAVEN, MI The Ottawa County Republican Party Executive Committee has censured six sitting Republican county commissioners in the latest public bout of party in-fighting.

The party leadership team alleges the commissioners in question have encouraged Democrats to vote in the Republican primary.

The Ottawa County GOP Executive Committee voted last week to censure any Republican elected official or candidate who encourages Democrats to vote in the hotly-contested Aug. 2 Republican Primary.

In doing so, they censured six Republican incumbents on the Ottawa County Board of Commissioners: Board Chair Matt Fenske, Roger Bergman, Board Vice Chair Al Dannenberg, Greg DeJong, Randy Meppelink and Phil Kuyers.

The Ottawa GOP Executive Committee in a news release claimed these sitting members have been publicly embracing Democrat interference in the Republican primary.

The committee further alleged that some of those commissioners were endorsed by two, unnamed political groups with apparent ties to George Soros that have a goal to elect the most liberal person in races where Democrats have a slim chance to win.

Ottawa County is often regarded as a Republican stronghold in the state. Only one of the countys 11-member board is a Democrat.

Soros, a Jewish billionaire and financier of progressive causes and candidates, is often invoked in antisemitic tropes as a symbol of Jewish wealth and power, the American Jewish Committee said in a Tuesday, July 19, statement in response to the Ottawa County GOP.

This antisemitic language has no place in our political discourse. It should never be normalized, American Jewish Committee officials said. We call upon the Michigan Republican Party and Ottawa County Republican Party to immediately refute these statements.

The six, censured commissioners are among a group of eight incumbent Republican Ottawa County commissioners being challenged in the Aug. 2 primary by fellow Republicans endorsed by new political action committee Ottawa Impact.

That group was born out of the COVID-19 health orders that saw mask mandates in schools in Ottawa County and elsewhere in the state by order of local health department directors.

In a joint press release sent out Saturday, July 16, the censured commissioners called themselves longtime and traditional Republicans who have dedicated ourselves throughout our political careers to making an impact, having integrity, and embracing the common good.

As longstanding members of the Republican Party, we support the values and policies which have made Ottawa County strong, the joint statement reads. We are disappointed that a small, vocal minority has infiltrated the Ottawa County GOP to serve its own narrow political agenda rather than address Ottawa County as a whole and serve everybody.

They didnt specifically address the claims made by the executive committee.

Read more:

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6 Republican Ottawa County commissioners censured in latest bout of party in-fighting - MLive.com

Party registration can be a lagging indicator of political change, but recent changes in some states are bringing registration more in line with actual voting.

Republicans have taken the voter registration edge in states such as Florida and West Virginia somewhat recently, and Kentucky flipped to them just last week. Democrats have built bigger leads in several blue states.

Democrats hold a substantial national lead in party registration, but a lot of that has to do with the fact that a number of states, many of which are Republican-leaning, do not register voters by party. A little less than two-thirds of the states register voters by party (31 states plus the District of Columbia).

Overall, Republicans have made gains over Democrats in 19 states since summer 2018, when we last looked at these trends, while Democrats have made gains over Republicans in 12 states and the District of Columbia. There are more registered Democrats than Republicans in 17 of these states plus DC, and more registered Republicans than Democrats in 14.

Last fall in Florida, something downright historic occurred. For the first time in the states modern history, the number of registered Republicans surpassed the number of registered Democrats. It has added an element of congruency to Florida politics, where Republicans were already dominating elections up and down the ballot. And it has provided more momentum for the GOP as it seeks to convert Florida from a battleground state into a reliably red one.

For Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis, the GOP success was also a personal one. He had made the idea of flipping Florida a significant goal of his administration and put $2 million into seeing that it happened. When it did, one of the prime beneficiaries was DeSantis, whose reputation on the national scene as an effective party-builder was enhanced.

For generations, party registration had been notoriously out of sync with election results. Across the late 20th century, Republican presidential winners such as Richard Nixon, Ronald Reagan, and George H.W. Bush won landslide victories by carrying states with significant Democratic registration pluralities.

But those days are fading fast, with a dramatic shift in particular occurring in the once solid Democratic South. For decades now, Republicans have dominated the region electorally, but it is only now that long healthy Democratic registration advantages are finally evaporating. In the last few years, the number of registered Republicans has finally surpassed the number of registered Democrats not only in Florida, but also in Kentucky, Oklahoma, and West Virginia. (The Mountain State is not technically Southern, though it has become very Republican in recent years just like many Southern states.)

Kentucky flipped less than a week ago, on July 15. A Democratic registration lead of more than 185,000 in mid-2020 is now a Republican advantage of 2,491 registered voters 1,612,060 to 1,609,569. Meanwhile, a couple of other Southern states with party registration, North Carolina and Louisiana, are also trending Republican, but Democrats retain a registration edge in both. The Tar Heel State did see unaffiliated voters surpass Democrats recently, though.

Why does all this matter? For a long time, party registration totals have been viewed as a lagging indicator of a states political evolution, changing more slowly than dominance at the ballot box. As a consequence, registration data has sometimes not been very predictive of how a state would vote. Yet now, as states switch from Democratic to Republican across the South, the data is becoming more reflective of actual election outcomes.

Party flips in registration are both dramatic and historic events that stoke Republican momentum, while dispiriting Democrats. Florida Republican leaders hope that the partys expanding voter base will not only help fuel a big victory for the GOP across the Sunshine State this fall but also help provide a solid presidential win in 2024.

Sources: Editions of America Votes (CQ Press, a division of SAGE) for party registration totals from 2008 through 2020. The 2022 figures are from the websites of state election authorities in Florida, Kentucky, Oklahoma, and West Virginia.

The Republican breakthrough in Florida was based on some dramatic changes within the state. At the time of Trumps election in November 2016, Democrats held the registration advantage in 30 of Floridas 67 counties. By this spring, Democrats led in just 15 counties.

Over the last 6 years, Republicans flipped a number of counties in rural Florida, especially in the northern part of the state near Alabama and Georgia. But the GOP also gained the registration lead in several rather populous counties in central Florida, such as Pinellas (St. Petersburg), Polk (Lakeland), and Volusia (Daytona Beach). In addition, Republicans trimmed the Democratic registration advantage in heavily Hispanic Miami-Dade County, from 220,000 in 2016 to less than 155,000 this spring.

Yet it was not all bad news for the Democrats. Since 2016, they have expanded their registration lead in Orange County (Orlando) and Duval County (Jacksonville). Still, that has not been good enough to keep pace with the Republicans, as Florida Democrats find themselves in the unusual position of playing catch up in the statewide registration battle.

As Florida shows signs of growing redder, GOP registration gains in another critical battleground state, Pennsylvania, show Democrats with a significant lead in spite of a reduced margin. The Democratic registration advantage was about 550,000 in 2006, surged past 1 million when Barack Obama first ran for president in 2008, and is now back to a pre-Obama lead of barely 540,000.

Republicans have posted significant registration gains in western Pennsylvania, once a hotbed of blue-collar Democrats. Since 2016, 4 counties in the region have flipped to the GOP, including Cambria (Johnstown) and Westmoreland, a populous county outside Pittsburgh.

Meanwhile, Democrats have expanded their domination of the once-Republican Philadelphia suburbs. With the registration advantage in Chester County switching during the Trump era from Republican to Democratic, the latter now holds the upper hand in party registration in all 4 suburban counties. The Democrats greatest advantage is in Montgomery County, where this summer there are now nearly 100,000 more registered Democrats than Republicans. It is a far cry from a generation ago, when Montgomery was the crown jewel of the state Republican Party.

In 2020, there was already a considerable amount of congruency between voter registration and the presidential election results. Of the 31 party registration states (and the District of Columbia), the 2 categories were in sync in 25 states. The exceptions were 5 Southern-oriented states won by Donald J. Trump that at the time of the 2020 election still had more registered Democrats than Republicans: Florida, Kentucky, Louisiana, North Carolina, and West Virginia. The other state that went against the grain was Arizona, where registered Republicans continue to outnumber Democrats even as Joe Biden carried the state by 10,457 votes. Given the recent flips, it would not be surprising if the nationwide congruency rate in the 2024 presidential election drew even closer to unanimous.

For years, Democrats were largely able to limit the Republican registration advance in the South to incremental gains. Yet since the eve of Trumps election in 2016, the GOPs ability to couple both registration advantages with election victories has begun to happen quickly, as shown in Table 1.

Many political observers abhor Trumps high-voltage, sharp-edged brand of politics. But his energy and bite now runs through the Republican Party and has arguably been a factor in the GOPs recent registration surge. Yet Trump is not the only reason this is happening. For a generation, there has been a steady stream of Southern white Democrats converting to the Republican Party. And it is a fact of life that numerous other yellow dog Democrats have been dying off, leaving states across the region increasingly dependent on Black voters for their viability.

A prime example is Louisiana, a state where voter registration is tallied by both party and race. In the era of Trump (from late 2016 to the present), the white share of Democratic registrations in the Bayou State has dropped by nearly 25%, from 563,673 in November 2016 to 425,799 this June. Meanwhile, the number of registered Black Democrats in Louisiana since 2016 has stayed roughly the same, just north of 700,000. As a consequence, the Black share of the states Democratic registrations has climbed to 60% (from 55% in late 2016), a change based almost entirely on a shrinking white percentage of the Democratic electorate.

On the other hand, it is an entirely different story among Louisiana Republicans. For all practical purposes, the partys registration numbers are racially homogenous, with nearly 940,000 white voters and barely 20,000 Black voters on the GOP rolls. In percentage terms, the Louisiana Republican electorate is 94% white and 2% Black, with the remainder classified racially as Other.

Notes: Totals are presented as they are listed on the state election website, with the exception of roughly 10 states where both the number of active and inactive voters are posted. In these, only the tally of active voters is listed here. The leader in each region is noted in bold and italics.

The following states register voters by party:

Northeast: Connecticut, Delaware, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, West Virginia, plus the District of Columbia.

South: Arkansas, Florida, Kentucky, Louisiana, North Carolina, Oklahoma.

Midwest: Iowa, Kansas, Nebraska, South Dakota.

West: Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, Utah, Wyoming.

Source: State election websites.

Since 2016, party registration changes outside the South have been a mixed bag. Republicans have succeeded in trimming Democratic registration advantages in several battleground states, including Nevada and Pennsylvania. In the former, there were nearly 100,000 more registered Democrats than Republicans at the time of Trumps election; now, the Democratic margin in Nevada is only a little over 50,000. In Pennsylvania, registered Democrats outpaced Republicans by more than 900,000 in late 2016; this July, the Democratic advantage stands at about 540,000.

Meanwhile, in Iowa, the Republican registration edge has more than doubled in size over the Democrats since 2016, from 33,000 to nearly 85,000, while both the GOP and the Democrats have surpassed the group of voters who are not registered with a party. In the process, Trump has carried the state twice by almost 10 percentage points, and essentially removed it from the ranks of battleground states. It is a good bet that the recent Republican gains in Iowa are a factor in the national Democratic Partys consideration of stripping the state of its traditional lead-off spot on the presidential nominating calendar.

Another state historically at the front of the primary calendar, New Hampshire, saw Democratic registrants surpass Republican ones around the time of the 2020 presidential primary, although undeclared voters still hold a plurality. Registered Democrats also recently surpassed independents to become the plurality of registrants in Maine and New Jersey, while independents are now ahead of Democrats in Oregon, even as the Democratic edge over Republicans has expanded.

There also has been a Democratic countersurge in states in the Amtrak corridor from Washington, D.C. to New York City, as well as in parts of the West. Taking out Pennsylvania, the states of New York, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, plus the District have seen the combined Democratic registration advantage in these jurisdictions swell by more than a half million since the middle of 2018

Out west in Colorado, the Democratic registration lead has widened by more than 100,000 since late 2016. But nothing matches California, where a Democratic registration advantage of 3.7 million has exploded to 5 million since Trumps election.

The party registration states are mainly on the 2 coasts with 11 (and the District) in the Northeast and 10 in the West. There are only 4 party registration states in the Midwest, all agrarian ones west of the Mississippi River, and 6 in the South. Arkansas is a hybrid when it comes to registration. The state gives voters the chance of registering by party, but nearly 90% of the total number of Razorback State registrants have declined the option.

It should be no surprise that because most of the states that register by party are concentrated in the most Democratic regions of the country, Democrats held a 9-percentage point lead over the Republicans (39% to 30%) in the nationwide tally of registered voters this summer.

Most of the rest are independents, a growth stock over the last generation as trust in the two major parties has faltered. Yet while the number of independents approaches 30% of all registered voters, there are those involved in politics who feel that percentage is inflated. It has been estimated that the number of pure independents is closer to 10%, with the others actually leaning to one party or the other.

Note: To be sure, there is something of an apples and oranges element in this table in comparing the national party registration percentages since 2000. From 2000 through 2016, the proportions in some states were based on a combination of active and inactive voters. This year, the author decided a truer measurement was to include only active registered voters in the 10 or so states where there was also the choice to add the inactive voters. Still, the accent is on the trend line since 2000 with the proportion of registered Democratic and Republican voters down since 2000, and registered independent voters up. Percentages do not add to 100 due to the exclusion of the small percentage of registered third party and miscellaneous voters. Ind. stands for independent.

Sources: Richard Wingers newsletter, Ballot Access News, for election-eve party registration numbers in 2000, 2008, and 2016; the websites of state election authorities for totals as of July 2022.

Setting the independents aside, there are currently almost 11.4 million more registered Democrats than Republicans in the party registration states. Yet that large edge has been fashioned in only 5 of them California (where there are 5 million more registered Democrats than Republicans), New York (with nearly 3.3 million more Democrats), Maryland (almost 1.25 million), Massachusetts (1 million), and New Jersey (with 1 million more Democrats than Republicans registered). In the remaining party registration states, the Democrats and Republicans have a similar aggregate number of voters.

Like other aspects of American politics, party registration is a moving target. Republicans in Florida, Oklahoma, and West Virginia have not just surpassed the Democrats in voter registration in recent years, they have blown by them. In Oklahoma, the GOP registration advantage is approaching 450,000. In Florida, it has surpassed 175,000. In West Virginia, the gap exceeds 60,000. All in all, it represents a new chapter in Southern politics, and by extension, the nation as a whole.

See Map 1 and Table 4 for the current registration tallies by state, and Table 5 for registration trends by state over the last couple of decades. This story concludes with a brief note on these data and how they were compiled.

Note: States often tally voter registration on a monthly basis (more on this at the end of the article). The methodology of counting registered voters varies by state, with some separating active from inactive registrants; we used active registrant counts whenever available. In Alaska, Undeclared voters are included with Inds. So too in Arkansas, where nearly 90% of all registered voters are listed as Optional. Inds. stand for independents, which can go by other names, such as Unaffiliated or No Party. I-D or I-R means that a state has a plurality of registered independents, with more registered Democrats than Republicans (D) or more registered Republicans than Democrats (R). Percentages do not always add to 100 due to rounding.

Source: State election websites

Note: The largest Democratic and Republican registration margins among the 5 data points are in bold. Party registration totals are based on the number of active voters in states where totals for both active and inactive voters are posted.

Sources: Election-eve party registration figures for 2000, 2008, and 2016 were compiled by Richard Winger and published in his bimonthly newsletter, Ballot Access News. The 2018 and 2022 data were compiled by the author from party registration numbers posted on state election websites.

For the individual citizen, there are two basic aspects to voting. First, there is registering to vote; then, there is the act of casting an election ballot. Traditionally, the focus is on the latter and the results it produces. Registering to vote can seem a bit murkier, for all practical purposes existing in a world of its own.

Altogether, 31 states plus the District of Columbia offer registration by party. Most are in the Northeast and the West, and include California and New York. The remaining 19 states that do not register by party are largely concentrated in the industrial Midwest and Deep South, plus Texas.

Sometimes it is difficult to compare one states registration figures with another. States purge their rolls of dead wood at their own pace, and in their own way. Some states publicly update their registration numbers on a daily, weekly, or monthly basis; in other states, it might be done every year or so.

A number of states report their totals in terms of active voters, those who participate in primaries and general elections on a regular basis. Yet there are also states that report the number of inactive voters, a disparate group that includes those who have died, left the state, or grown disinterested in politics.

In Kentucky, the secretary of states office recently listed the various reasons for being purged from their registration rolls. It reported that in March 2022, there were 6,881 voters removed 5,874 deceased voters, 613 felony convicts, 300 voters who moved out of state, 71 adjudged mentally incompetent, and 23 who voluntarily de-registered. The total of inactive registrants varies from state to state, but often runs about 10% to 20% the size of the number of actives.

The active totals are featured here from the 10 or so states where there is a choice to made in what party registration totals to use. Among the states that offer an explicit tally of active registrations are Arizona, Colorado, Maine, and Nevada. Data from the other states are often not broken down between active and inactive voters on their election websites but are used here nonetheless.

The data above are all from the most recent reports we could find from state-level sources. Generally speaking, these states all updated their figures within the past couple of months. A few exceptions: Arizona last updated its numbers in April, New York in February, and Connecticut and Massachusetts last year.

Originally posted here:
The Republican Advance in the South and Other Party Registration Trends Sabato's Crystal Ball - UVA | Center for Politics