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Mike Gallagher, a 39-year-old former Marine, is widely viewed as a rising star in the GOP thanks to his vocal stance on China policy and prolific fundraising. | J. Scott Applewhite/AP Photo

A public break with former President Donald Trump has been career suicide for many an ambitious GOP lawmaker in recent years. It might just be a boon for Rep. Mike Gallagher.

Top party officials in D.C. and back home in Wisconsin maintain the fourth-term congressman and new head of the China Select Committee represents their best shot at flipping the battlegrounds Senate seat in 2024.

There is just one thing they have to do first: convince him to run.

The 39-year-old former Marine is widely viewed as a rising star in the GOP thanks to his vocal stance on China policy and prolific fundraising. Beyond that, key Republicans say his criticism of Trump might just bolster his credibility with the very voters theyve lost in recent cycles. His nomination would be a strong indication the party is shifting gears and learning the lessons from 2022.

Gallagher has been evasive about his plans. But people close to him say hes not inclined to challenge Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin, a formidable campaigner and fundraiser in her own right. And they also recognize that Gallaghers break with Trump over Jan. 6, and recent insistence that the former president lost [his] support, will be tricky to navigate, particularly in a potentially messy primary, given Trumps immense sway over the party in recent years.

Should Gallagher pass on the contest, it could not only hurt Republicans chances of claiming the Senate in 2024, it would further underscore the hurdles the party faces in finding a winning electoral formula in a post-Trump world.

In their bid to oust Baldwin, senior Wisconsin Republicans are eager to find a candidate who can bring back the independent and moderate Republican voters in key suburbs who broke with the former president in 2020 and several of his top picks in 2022.

There are some signs that the former presidents grip on the GOP is beginning to slip. He has failed to scare away other presidential primary candidates and recent polling shows hed face stiff competition from Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, among other potential contenders. In Wisconsin, where Ted Cruz beat Trump in the 2016 GOP primary, DeSantis led Trump in a hypothetical 2024 matchup with Biden, according to a Marquette Law Poll from late January. But Trumps standing in national primary polls has improved since then. And an impending indictment in a hush-money case has compelled many in the party to rally around the former president once more.

One Wisconsin Republican close to Gallagher, who was granted anonymity to talk about their private conversations with him, brushed off the notion that his public break with Trump would hurt him significantly in a future GOP primary. The person noted that the congressman didnt vote to impeach Trump or approve an independent commission to investigate the attack on the U.S. Capitol. Instead, the person said Gallaghers relatively lean legislative record on Wisconsin issues is his biggest vulnerability.

He hasnt been all that focused on whats been going on at home, said the Republican, who requested anonymity to discuss private conversations. If theres an Achilles heel, its there, not Trump.

Gallaghers profile in the party has risen rapidly since he was first elected to Congress in 2016, the same year Trump took the White House especially in his role as a leading voice on China policy. He burnished his hard-nosed stance as Trump took aim at Chinas unfair trading practices and other malign activities, though the economic fallout from the ensuing trade war fell on U.S. agriculture, a top industry in Gallaghers home state. Asked if he supported Trumps recent campaign proposal that would levy more tariffs on Chinese goods, something that has raised alarm among some other farm state Republicans, the new head of the House China Select Committee said he wasnt aware of the former presidents proposal to overhaul U.S. trade with China.

Despite his tensions with Trump, many Republicans are now openly suggesting Gallagher may be the partys best chance to oust Baldwin, the battle-tested incumbent Democrat, who has already amassed a huge war chest.

Sen. Steve Daines (R-Mont.), who is leading Senate Republicans effort to flip the chamber and has suggested he will help tap more mainstream candidates this cycle, did not hide his enthusiasm about the prospect of the congressman joining the race.

Mike Gallagher would be a great candidate, Daines said. Hes the kind of candidate that with his distinguished service and then time in Congress, could win both the primary and general election.

If Mike got in, everybody would know thats the total package, said Brian Schimming, the states Republican party chair.

Trumps specter looms, however. Republicans in Wisconsin expect the former president to campaign there around the time of the state GOP convention in June, if not earlier. And Republicans hold their national convention in Milwaukee in July 2024.

For now, Gallagher insists that he is focused on his high-profile new post as the House GOPs preeminent China hawk, and not any potential future campaign.

Wisconsin Republicans close to the congressman describe him as whip smart, but also incredibly risk averse and extremely deliberative, sometimes to a point where hes slow to make decisions. They expect him, however, to likely leave the House after his current or following term in Congress, given his push early in his congressional career to limit House members to six terms in office.

Those Republicans say Gallagher, who beat his last Democratic challenger by 30 points in one of the few semi-swing regions left in the state, is more interested in a 2028 bid to replace Ron Johnson, should the states current GOP senator retire as expected, or a possible 2026 gubernatorial run, rather than facing Baldwin, whose own retail politics and fundraising skills make her an intimidating foe.

Should a Republican other than Trump win the White House in 2024, Gallagher, a one-time foreign policy aide to former Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walkers presidential campaign, may be inclined to pursue a role in the administration, according to a Wisconsin GOP lawmaker and another Republican who was granted anonymity to speak openly about their private conversations with Gallagher. A role like national security adviser, Navy secretary or secretary of State would allow him to better deploy his expertise on China and foreign policy.

The opportunities for Mike become pretty wide, said one of the Republicans.

As the Wisconsin GOP field waits on Gallagher to make his 2024 plans known, Baldwin has been making moves of her own. Shes preparing to formally launch her campaign shortly after Wisconsins closely-watched state supreme court race April 4, according to two people familiar with the plans who were granted anonymity to discuss private conversations. Long able to shake the national Democratic brand, Baldwin has consistently outperformed fellow Democrats in the state, including in Gallaghers home district in the northeast, which spans the city of Green Bay, nearby suburbs and vast stretches of dairy farms, small towns and tribal lands.

Despite Baldwins past campaign success, senior Wisconsin Democrats believe her upcoming reelection race will be much closer, and won or lost on the margins like most statewide contests in recent years. Baldwins longtime aide Scott Spector is poised for a senior role in her reelect effort according to the two people with knowledge of the campaign plans.

Other possible GOP challengers who may jump in should Gallagher choose not to run include former state Sen. Roger Roth, who won the states Republican primary for lieutenant governor last August, according to people familiar with the plans.

Current Reps. Bryan Steil and Tom Tiffany, who has recently been traveling more within the state, have also been floated as possible candidates, especially if redistricting squeezes some members out of their seats. (Since the news of Trumps possible indictment, Steil and other House GOP members have rushed to defend the former president through letters and on Twitter. Gallaghers office has meanwhile avoided the subject, tweeting about student loans and local school sports state champions.) Trumps former White House chief of staff Reince Priebus was heavily involved in the midterms, sparking questions as to whether he was laying the groundwork for a run of his own.

David Clarke, a Trump acolyte and former Milwaukee Sheriff; former GOP Rep. Sean Duffy; former Senate and gubernatorial candidate Kevin Nicholson; and Eric Hovde, a wealthy Republican businessman who waged an unsuccessful Senate bid in 2012 are other names that have come up in conversations with GOP officials.

But another Wisconsin Republican acknowledged that many of those candidates have already used up a lot of their political capital in prior races. Its not a very deep bench.

Gallagher now appears to be keeping everything in play.

Asked earlier this month on Capitol Hill if he had any interest in challenging Baldwin next year, Gallagher said, My sole focus is on the select committee on the CCP not thinking about 2024.

He took a few steps and added: And providing the best constituent services for northeast Wisconsin.

Here is the original post:
Republicans' best hope for Wisconsin Senate is a Trump critic - POLITICO

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Its time for us to revisit the Glenn Youngkin-for-president chatter.

Since the last time I looked at this, several noteworthy things have happened.

a. Hes appeared on a CNN town hall, with mixed reviews.

b. Hes met with major donors, most recently in Dallas.

c. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has raised his own national profile, not always in useful ways. (Calling Russias invasion of Ukraine a territorial dispute may please the growing isolationist camp with the Republican Party but was quickly denounced by what remains of those who consider Ronald Reagan their ideological guidepost.)

d. Former Ambassador Nikki Haley has formally announced her candidacy and others have moved closer to doing so.

e. And, oh yes, the presumed frontrunner former President Donald Trump has said hell be indicted (although his prediction of a Tuesday indictment didnt come to pass and neither did a Wednesday one).

So where do things with Youngkin stand now? There are two basic questions: Will Youngkin run? And does he stand a chance? I have zero insight into the former but I will attempt to analyze the latter. To do this, we must think like Republicans (this will be easier for some of you than others).

By multiple measures, enthusiasm for Trump seems lower than it was but remains significant enough that he consistently leads polling for the Republican nomination. There are those who believe that an indictment will actually help him. Ill confess I find this a mystery. Of the possible cases against Trump, this one is said to be legally the weakest. Those who make that argument (and some of them have been Democrats) point out that in 2011 former Democratic vice presidential candidate John Edwards was indicted on six felony charges for allegedly using campaign funds to cover up an affair. Edwards was found not guilty on one charge; the jury deadlocked on the others and the case was never brought back. Politically, though, Edwards was finished. Democrats now never mention his name; he is considered a great embarrassment to the party.

Why is the Republican reaction to Trump possibly getting indicted on what may be essentially the same charges so different? I dont recall Democrats lamenting that the case against Edwards was politically motivated; they considered him a slimeball and wanted nothing to do with him. I would not have predicted that Republicans, the party of family values, would be the party more forgiving of a candidate allegedly having an affair (and with a porn star!). In any case, Trump seems to remain popular with a significant portion of Republicans and an indictment, if it comes, may not change that. Politically, it seems clear: Trump will not fall of his own accord. He will only be brought down if Republicans dramatically change their minds and that may not happen until other Republicans try to take him down. Youngkin will not be that candidate; that is not his nature. He recently told columnist George Will: Ive made it through two years without calling anyone a name. Youngkin would surely be happier if someone else did that dirty work. Given his almost nonexistent standing in the polls, Youngkins best chance would be if both Trump and other, better-known candidates self-destructed and the party went searching for alternatives. That scenario, though, requires someone to go after Trump. Who will that be?

Trump does best when he doesnt have to win a majority of the vote, only a plurality. He never won a majority of the popular vote in either of his presidential campaigns. More importantly, he didnt start winning a majority of the vote in the 2016 Republican primaries until after the contest was nearly done and all but a few candidates had dropped out. Remember, he initially lost the Iowa caucuses, where he took just 24.3%, the second-lowest share for any Republican second-place candidate ever in the Iowa caucuses. In New Hampshire, he won with just 35.2% of the vote, the second-lowest percentage ever for a winner on the Republican side of the New Hampshire presidential primary.In South Carolina, he won with just 32.5% of the vote, the lowest percentage ever for any winning candidate on either side in the states presidential primary. Nevertheless, those primaries were considered decisive because Trump did win but he won only because the vote was so split among other candidates. If Republicans want to defeat Trump, they need to unite around a single candidate but thats not happening for the same reason it didnt happen in 2016. Everyone thinks they should be the one.

Heres where the scenario for Youngkin becomes more complicated. Its easy to see Trump winning the nomination: Hes the frontrunner. Its easy to see DeSantis winning the nomination: Hes the next-strongest. Its also easy to see one of the other well-known candidates catching fire and finding a path to the nomination Haley, for instance, or former Vice President Mike Pence. Id rank the likelihood of those scenarios in that order: Trump first, DeSantis second, another well-known candidate third. Its not impossible for someone else to ride a groundswell of support to the top, but a lot harder to imagine. It would involve an intensive campaign, and Republicans becoming dissatisfied with both Trump and DeSantis and the other second-tier candidates. Thats possible, of course lots of things are possible but historically improbable. A win in either Iowa or New Hampshire is not predictive; weve seen Iowa losers (such as Trump in 2016) go on to win the nomination. Weve seen candidates who didnt win either one go on to win the nomination (Joe Biden in 2020). However, not since Jimmy Carter in 1976 have we seen someone win the nomination who wasnt part of the national conversation as a serious contender well before the first votes were cast. Even Trump was a frontrunner in the polls by the late summer of 2015. If Youngkin runs, hell be attempting something that hasnt been done for a long time.

The election calendar works against any Virginia governor who wants to seek the presidency: As soon as the governor is sworn in, he or she would have to start running. You can argue that Youngkin already is, but what hes really done so far is flirt with the notion, and try to raise his national profile. An actual campaign would require a lot more time commitment. Lets set aside the question of how forgiving Virginians might or might not be about that. Heres the real catch: We have General Assembly elections this November, and all 140 seats are up for grabs. The balance of power in both chambers is on the line. Virginia Republicans need Youngkin here at home; he is reasonably popular and is arguably their best asset in these elections. He wont be, though, if hes in Montgomery County, Iowa, and not Montgomery County, Virginia. Youngkin also needs these Virginia elections to go well. If Democrats win both chambers, thats hardly an endorsement of his leadership. On the other hand, if Republicans can hold the House and win back the Senate, then Youngkin has a potentially powerful talking point nationally: Look how I flipped Virginia. The question is: By November 2023, would that be too late? Is it possible for him to hold back and not launch a campaign until after the legislative elections? Hed have just under three months before the Iowa caucuses on Feb. 5, 2024. The great philosopher Jerry Reed said it best in his classic treatise East Bound and Down: Weve got a long way to go, and a short time to get there.

Biden is not particularly popular but hes also a good example of the principle of two campers being chased by a bear. The one camper doesnt need to be faster than the bear, just faster than the other camper. Biden doesnt need to be popular, he just needs to be seen as a safer choice than the Republican nominee. Weve reelected unpopular presidents before. Thats why some Democrats are hoping Trump is the Republican nominee again; they think hell be easier to beat in 2024 than he was in 2020, and he got beaten then.

My sense is that voters are hungry for generational change, and yet another campaign between Biden and Trump doesnt satisfy that desire. A different and younger Republican nominee might. DeSantis may have the same appeal to some that Trump does, just without Trumps liabilities. But he may also have many of the same disadvantages. He seems to be an angry man. Maybe thats what some Republicans want, but is that really what Americans overall want? More to the point, is it what swing voters want? Columnist Will pondered that question when he wrote favorably of Youngkin and unfavorably of DeSantis: One can consider DeSantiss dislikes admirable but still wonder: Do most Republicans, does the nation, want another president defined by truculence? American politics, indeed American life, has become unhealthily president-centric. It would become even more so with a president who, having campaigned as a brawler, could claim a mandate for incessant interventions in cultural disputes best conducted below the presidency. Political parties, though, often nominate candidates who arent in their best interest.

This ventures away from fact-based opinion into purely speculative opinion but my sense is that people are weary of politics. Thats one of the reasons some voted for Biden over Trump; they wanted a president they didnt have to think about every day. If some now regret that choice, its because of Bidens policies, not his absence of insults on Twitter. Id be willing to gamble that a younger, more optimistic Republican nominee, especially one fresh to the national scene, would be the partys strongest choice. Youngkin would sure fit that bill. So, too, would some others such as Haley and South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott. If we were still in the era of the proverbial smoke-filled room, I could see one of those three getting named the party nominee. Thats not how nominations are decided these days, though.

Ultimately, my analysis hasnt changed since I first looked at this last summer: The odds remain against Youngkin. But if he wants to run, hell be following the lead foot of that great philosopher Reed: We gonna do what they say cant be done.

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What are Gov. Youngkin's chances of winning the Republican ... - Cardinal News

Conservative Supreme Court candidate Daniel Kelly consulted the Republican Party of Wisconsin in 2020, including during the time when the party was developing plans to create a fake slate of electors after the 2020 presidential election.

MADISON (WKOW) -- In late 2020, Daniel Kelly was working as an attorney, and one of his clients was the Republican Party of Wisconsin (RPW). In November 2020, Joe Biden won the popular vote in Wisconsin. One month later, RPW Chair Andrew Hitt and other Republicans gathered at the state capitol to form a fake slate of electors for President Donald Trump.

The House Select Committee investigating the January 6 insurrection subpoenaed Hitt, and he provided testimony in February 2022.

Hitt told the committee he called Kelly to talk about the fake elector plan.

"We talked for about a half-hour kind of thinking through, thinking through the issues and if, what questions, you know, what other questions do I need to ask and think through," Hitt said.

Kelly has acknowledged that work and defended the interaction during an appearance on WISN's UPFRONT on Sunday.

"Frankly, I was not versed in this area of the law," he said. "It is, the testimony shows I was not in the loop. So, it was just that one conversation, just a general conversation about the subject, and that was it."

However, Kelly's opponent, Janet Protasiewicz, has pushed the issue.

In a debate Tuesday, she called Kelly "a true threat to our democracy."

Howard Schweber, a political science professor at UW-Madison, said he believes Protasiewicz is hoping that message resonates with a specific type of voter.

He said the election is very polarized, so voters who support Protasiewicz likely won't be swayed by the attack.

"Where it does potentially have some traction is among Republican and conservative voters in Wisconsin," he said.

Schweber said, for some of them, the January 6 insurrection and election denialism were a breaking point.

"It's plausible that some number, potentially a significant number, of voters who would have otherwise voted for [Kelly] might change their mind on the grounds that 'well, I'm a conservative, you know, I'm maybe even a Trump supporter, but I don't go as far as this,'" he said.

Schweber said both candidates have run almost entirely negative campaigns, limiting the voters who they reach.

"I think both candidates have decided to abandon any attempt to persuade undecided voters and focus entirely on motivating their base and depressing the other side's base," he said.

Protasiewicz has focused heavily on Kelly's ties to the fake electoral slate. Kelly has focused on Protasiewicz's judicial record and said she is soft on crime.

However, Schweber said the efficacy of those attacks will depend on which narrative voters believe.

"I expect the next two weeks to be just a massive amplification of those messages," he said.

Continued here:
Expert: Protasiewicz targeting Republican voters with attacks on ... - WKOW

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The Wyoming Legislature adjourned the 2023 general session on March 3, but its last orders of business werent put to rest until Friday, when Gov. Mark Gordon let several bills become law without his signature. That included a near-complete ban on abortion, which divided anti-abortion lawmakers over its constitutional implications. Gordon expressed similar concerns in a letter to the secretary of state explaining his decision.

I understand the Legislatures effort to improve Wyomings pro-life legal framework However, I am nonetheless concerned that, in practice, this bill would instead complicate and delay the resolution of these central and foundational constitutional questions, Gordon wrote.

The governors comments reflected a debate that simmered among lawmakers for much of the session: How best to reconcile the fundamental conservative principles of local control and constitutional adherence with a Christian nationalist agenda?

The embrace of limited government and deference to the Constitution are not new to the statehouse, where the GOP recently strengthened its longstanding supermajority. The discussion of those values and the degree to which they should dictate legislative action, however, has shifted with the growth of the Wyoming Freedom Caucus and its inclusion of an out-of-state political movement. As a result, the 2023 legislative session saw once inviolable ideals hotly debated on the House and Senate floors by competing camps of self-avowed conservatives.

Im just trying to figure out, in my mind, when we stopped believing in local control as a core principle of this body and of the majority party, Rep. Jared Olsen, R-Cheyenne, told lawmakers.

Representatives were debating House Bill 95, Working animal protection act, which would have barred municipalities from enacting any bans or restrictions on using a working animal in certain settings, such as fairs and rodeos. Debate on the bill was mostly divided by a recurring split the Freedom Caucus and its freshman allies versus the rest of the body.

Bill sponsor Rep. Rachel Rodriguez-Williams, R-Cody, said the legislation was a way for Wyoming to get ahead of the animal rights activists shed seen passing out flyers in downtown Cody urging residents not to support the local rodeo. The legislation mirrored bills states such as Arkansas and Oklahoma passed in 2021 with support of national anti-animal-rights groups The Cavalry Group and Protect the Harvest.

If animal rights activists target Cheyenne Frontier Days, Rep. Ben Hornok, R-Cheyenne, said, the city may choose to shut down its $40 million cash cow known as the Daddy of em All. Other Laramie County lawmakers were skeptical of that risk and worried about the underlying philosophy of the bill.

If we stand firm with the principle that we dont like the federal government telling our state what to do, then it should follow very logically that we dont want the state to tell our local communities what to do, Olsen said. But the concept of local control sometimes seems like a cop out, Rep. Tamara Trujillo, R-Cheyenne, said. Sometimes it just makes sense to handle it from the top.

Rodriguez-Williams also shot back. Local government is merely political subdivisions of this state, she said.

Ultimately, the bill failed to pass the House and died. But the local-control debate lingered, attracting out-of-state attention in the process.

In late February, nearing a critical bill deadline, the Freedom Caucus criticized Speaker of the House Albert Sommers, R-Pinedale, for holding back certain bills, a maneuver granted to the leadership position by the rules adopted earlier in the session.

Per those rules, Rep. Jeanette Ward, R-Casper, attempted to override the speaker, but failed to get the requisite two-thirds vote. Ward had called for the vote in an attempt to advance Senate File 117, Parental rights in education, which would have banned instruction on gender and sexual orientation from some classrooms.

About a week after Wards motion failed, national voices joined the conversation. Andrew Roth, president of the State Freedom Caucus Network, called Sommers out on Twitter for stalling three bills. Roths Washington, D.C.-based organization officially partnered with Wyomings Freedom Caucus just ahead of the session.

This is in the most Republican state in America, Roth tweeted. Shortly after, U.S. Rep. Harriet Hageman, R-Wyo., chimed in on the social media platform. This is about protecting our children. In Congress, Im fighting for these very issues. I hope the Wyoming Legislature will do the same, she said.

Later, Roth tweeted that his organization had sent text messages to Republicans in Sommers district, listing the speakers phone number and urging voters to call him. When you call yourself a Republican, but act like a liberal, you gotta pay the liberal tax, Roth wrote.

The online campaign was enough to get the attention of Fox News, but failed to influence Sommers. Im not gonna let anybody intimidate me, Sommers told reporters on the last day of the session. Following the national commotion, Sommers penned an op-ed, wherein he explained his decision to hold back legislation.

Bills that are unconstitutional, not well vetted, poorly written, duplicate bills or debates, and bills that negate local control, restrict the rights of people or risk costly litigation financed by the people of Wyoming should not become law, Sommers wrote. When it came to SF 117, local control was a specific problem.

Ive always fought against taking authority away from local school boards, town councils and county commissions, Sommers said. He also expressed concern that the bill violated the single-subject rule of the Wyoming Constitution, which requires most bills to contain not more than one subject.

Earlier in the session, adherence to the Wyoming Constitution nearly halted a sweeping abortion bill.

Ive heard the word unconstitutional thrown around so frequently this session, it baffles me, Rodriguez-Williams told a legislative committee. Honestly, I think it is being thrown around to fearmonger. And the people of Wyoming are tired of being fearmongered.

The House Judiciary Committee was debating House Bill 152, Life is a Human Right Act, a near-total abortion ban. The committee voted 5-4 to send the bill to the floor, but the vote was not totally split between anti-abortion lawmakers and those who would prefer to keep the procedure legal. Instead, Reps. Barry Crago, R-Buffalo, and Ember Oakley, R-Riverton who both work as attorneys and voted in favor of Wyomings 2022 trigger bill opposed it due to concerns over its legality.

Its difficult for me to get up and argue against a pro-life bill; its not easy, Crago said on the House floor. But Im doing it because I truly believe that going down this road is going to be detrimental to our cause of pro-life legislation.

One constitutional concern was whether the bills language stepped on the judiciarys toes by interpreting the state constitution. Oakley called the language a middle finger to that other branch of government.

As we all know, its the judiciary that interprets the law, Oakley said. Its like the civics that we all learned when we were kids. I mean, the basics of our government are, of course, that the Legislature makes the law, executive enforces and the judiciary interprets, Oakley said. Ultimately, Crago and Oakley voted for the bill on third reading.

A lawsuit filed in the Ninth District Court on Friday claims that the Legislature overstepped in passing HB 152 by violating the Wyoming Constitution. A Teton County judge issued a temporary restraining order blocking enforcement of the new law on Wednesday.

In his closing remarks to the House on the last day of session, Gordon thanked lawmakers for keeping in mind how important it is that we have Wyoming solutions for Wyoming problems.

It echoed a metric Sommers said he often relies on to assess legislation. Does it solve a Wyoming problem with a Wyoming solution? he wrote in an op-ed.

That framework, however, was opposed by Freedom Caucus members, including Rodriguez-Williams, who recently penned an op-ed calling it the go-to method for killing bills and became a facade to hide behind, conveniently concealing from Wyoming voters a true debate on the issues at hand.

The Management Council will meet today to decide what topics and solutions lawmakers will tackle in the interim, restarting the process anew.

Originally posted here:
Republican lawmakers divided on scope of government - Wyoming Tribune