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One of the rules of American politics is that the party that doesn't control the White House will pick up seats in the U.S. House of Representatives during the midterm election. Considering that Democrats hold the White House and only a slim 222-to-213-seat edge in the House,class='footnote-text'> Republicans appear to have a straightforward path to retaking Congresss lower chamber. Indeed, FiveThirtyEights midterm forecast gives Republicans about a 7-in-10 shot of claiming a majority, as of Oct. 5, 2022, at 8:20 PM.

But knowing exactly which districts Republicans might swing is harder to say with certainty. The GOPs path to a majority mostly runs through districts represented by Democrats but whose historic voting patterns suggest they are highly competitive or lean at least a bit to the right. Republicans also hope to pick up a handful of bluer seats, as the party not in the White House sometimes captures reach seats in midterms. But a 7-in-10 chance is nowhere near a guarantee for Republicans: Democrats hopes of retaining the House rest on swinging a handful of GOP-held seats and holding onto the same competitive seats the Republicans are targeting.

The map below shows the House seats that are most vulnerable to swinging from one party to the other based on our forecast.

Each partys chances to flip every Houseseat

With the help of data from midterm elections between 1998 and 2018, weve identified the types of districts that have historically swung between parties and grouped them into four clusters based on the incumbent party and the districts partisan lean.class='footnote-text'> Three groups consist of districts that Republicans could flip: conservative-leaning districts currently held by a Democrat, competitive purpley districts currently held by a Democrat, and liberal-leaning districts held by a Democrat. The fourth and final group consists of all districts currently held by Republicans that Democrats could flip. Now, due to redistricting, theres also an additional fifth group because 20 districts either dont have an incumbent party or have two incumbents running. We dont map out those seats, but we do briefly discuss them at the end.class='footnote-text'> But as for the other 415 seats, we can examine how much they matter to each partys majority-making hopes in the maps below.

First up, we have 11 seats that should offer the easiest pickup opportunities for the Republicans: districts currently represented by a Democrat but vote at least 5 points more Republican than the country as a whole, according to FiveThirtyEights partisan lean metric. In the six midterm elections held between 1998 to 2018, the party in the GOPs position that is, the party not in the White House has managed to swing almost 3-in-5 seats that leaned toward it but were held by the presidents party. The most notable result was in 2010, when Republicans gained 63 seats overall, around two-thirds of which were red-leaning districts held by Democrats. The good news for Democrats in 2022 is that, compared with 2010, they dont have nearly as much red turf to defend. But Republicans only need to flip five net seats to capture the House, and they could win at least that many from this category alone.

Republicans chances to flip House seats that have a more conservative partisan lean (R+5) and are currently held byaDemocrat

Unlike 2010, this midterm will take place under new district lines, and many of the seats Republicans have the best chance of swinging have changed significantly due to redistricting. Floridas GOP-drawn map transformed the 7th and 13th districts from highly competitive to clearly Republican-leaning, while Tennessee Republicans transformed the Nashville-based 5th District into a red bastion. These changes werent all due to partisan mapmaking, though. Arizonas new map, drawn by the states independent redistricting commission, improved Republicans chances in both the 2nd and 6th districts, turning former swing seats into red-leaning districts. Democratic Rep. Tom OHalleran is mounting a defense in Arizonas 2nd, which has helped Democrats chances there as incumbents still get at least a small boost. No Democratic incumbents are defending the five seats that are likeliest to flip, which only helps the GOPs odds.

Some other red-leaning districts controlled by Democrats didnt change much in redistricting, but they are also in the GOPs sights as longer-term trends continue to reshape their political preferences. Wisconsins 3rd District has been drifting to the right in the past decade, and longtime Democratic Rep. Ron Kind retired, making it a prime Republican target. Democratic incumbents are seeking reelection in Maines 2nd District and Pennsylvanias 8th District, but northern Maine and northeast Pennsylvania have swung right in the Trump era.

But no other seats look more like toss-ups than the 24 Democratic-held districts that have a partisan lean between D+5 and R+5. After all, during midterms from 1998 to 2018, the party in the GOPs position flipped nearly one-third of seats like this held by the presidents party. Of these two dozen races, 13 involve Democrats defending seats they first won during the 2018 blue wave, but this year, Republicans may end some of their tenures in Congress.

Republicans chances to flip House seats that have a competitive partisan lean (D+5 to R+5) and are currently held byaDemocrat

At the top of that endangered list is Rep. Tom Malinowski in New Jerseys 7th District. In redistricting, New Jerseys bipartisan commission picked the Democratic-drawn map, which worked to protect all potentially vulnerable Democrats save Malinowski, whose light blue seat became light red.class='footnote-text'> In addition to Malinowski, three other Democrats first elected in 2018 are caught in toss-up races of their own for seats that now lean a hair to the right after redistricting: Democratic Reps. Cindy Axne of Iowa, Sharice Davids of Kansas and Susan Wild of Pennsylvania.

Republicans also have a chance of swinging some open seats in this cluster. Perhaps most notably, Oregons 5th District could prove to be a self-defeating moment for Democratic primary voters: They ousted longtime centrist Rep. Kurt Schrader and backed progressive Jamie McLeod-Skinner in this D+3 seat, which has potentially boosted the chances of Republican Lori Chavez-DeRemer. Over in Illinois, Democrats in the state legislature drew the states 17th District to be somewhat bluer in redistricting, but western Illinois has been trending to the right, and Republican Esther Joy King could find victory after narrowly losing in 2020 to now-retiring Democratic Rep. Cheri Bustos. Additionally, Democratic Reps. Conor Lamb and Tom Suozzi left behind Pennsylvanias 17th District and New Yorks 3rd District to pursue failed statewide bids, respectively, which will potentially aid Republicans chances of capturing those seats.

The remaining seats involve incumbents who are currently favored but far from shoo-ins, especially if the political environment becomes more favorable to Republicans in the final month of the campaign, which we may see some nascent signs of based on recent polling and economic news.

Next, we turn to the 178 seats Democrats are defending that vote at least 5 points more Democratic than the country as a whole. Most of these districts will not be in play in 2022, especially considering the presidents party won 96 percent of districts like this between 1998 and 2018. Still, a shift to the right in the political environment could open the door for the GOP in some of the blue-but-not-deep-blue seats in this category. For instance, in both 2006 and 2018, Democrats managed to flip 18 seats that were R+5 or redder while a Republican president was in office.

Republicans chances to flip House seats that have a more liberal partisan lean (D+5) and are currently held byaDemocrat

Nonetheless, our forecast is currently bearish on the GOPs odds of swinging some of these districts. If the GOP is going to capture some of these reach seats, their best shot may come in a seat like Nevadas 4th District, a D+5 seat defended by Democratic Rep. Steven Horsford, whom Republican Sam Peters could best with an assist from the political environment and perhaps lingering negativity toward Horsford over revelations of a past extramarital affair that came to light in 2020. Republicans have also made a play for Rhode Islands 2nd District, a D+16 seat left open by retiring Democratic Rep. Jim Langevin. Republican Allan Fung is well-funded and nearly won the Ocean States governorship in 2014, but he faces an uphill battle against Democrat Seth Magaziner, the states General Treasurer.

The last cluster of districts are the 202 seats Republicans are defending, which history suggests wont be easy for Democrats to swing in their direction: In the six midterms from 1998 to 2018, the White House party flipped just 2 percent of the districts defended by their opponent, regardless of their partisan lean. However, the political environment following the Supreme Courts decision to overturn the constitutional right to abortion has proven to be less advantageous for the GOP than we mightve otherwise expected, given historical midterm patterns. This, in combination with redistricting and the candidates chosen by some Republican primary voters, has opened the door for Democrats to make a play for a handful of seats Republicans are defending this November.

Democrats chances to flip every House seat currently held byaRepublican

Most notably, Democrats have a decent chance of flipping Michigans 3rd District, where Democrat Hillary Scholten is slightly favored over Republican John Gibbs. Before August, Republican Rep. Peter Meijer was a good bet to hold onto the seat, which became slightly Democratic-leaning under the new lines drawn by Michigans independent redistricting commission. But Meijer lost to Gibbs in the Aug. 2 GOP primary, as Gibbs gained former President Donald Trumps endorsement after Meijer voted to impeach him in 2021. Similarly, Democrats may be able to make a play for New Yorks 22nd District. Moderate Republican Rep. John Katko retired after voting to impeach Trump, and Republican primary voters in the Syracuse-area seat opted for the Trumpier and less well-funded Brandon Williams instead of the national GOPs preferred candidate in what our forecast views as a race leaning slightly toward Republicans.

Redistricting also played a role in the competitiveness of three Republican-held toss-up seats Democrats hope to flip. In California, the states independent redistricting commission placed Republican Reps. David Valadao and Mike Garcia in seats that were somewhat bluer than the ones they currently hold, while New Mexico Democrats drew GOP Rep. Yvette Herrells district to be highly competitive so that they might unseat her.

Weve covered 415 of the Houses 435 seats here, but the remaining 20 districts dont have an incumbent party, 18 because they are newly drawn or because an incumbent who mightve run there decided to run in a nearby seat instead, and two others because they feature a general election showdown between a Democratic and Republican incumbent. Overall, 11 of these districts favor the GOP to some extent, seven favor Democrats and two are essentially toss-ups. So this, too, is a marginally beneficial category for Republicans, although its harder to say how these compare in a modern midterm context because the only other midterm since 1998 to come after decennial redistricting was in 2002, a sample size of one.

The four main categories of seats show where we might expect districts to swing this November. Republicans will be best positioned to challenge for the House majority thanks to the competitive seats and Republican-leaning seats held by Democrats. Democrats in turn will hope to flip a few GOP-controlled districts at the margins, prevent Republicans from grabbing hold of more Democratic-leaning seats and retain as many of those highly competitive districts as they can. History is on the GOPs side, but the 2022 story still has to be written.

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The Seats Republicans Could Flip To Win The House In 2022 - FiveThirtyEight

Denver Riggleman is a US air force veteran who became a one-term Republican congressman from Virginia. In the House from 2019, he was a member of the hardline Freedom Caucus and voted with Donald Trump more than 90% of the time. Yet according to his new book, Riggleman began to understand that some of my colleagues had fully bought into even the more unhinged conspiracy theories he had witnessed while campaigning.

In 2020, Riggleman lost his Republican nomination after he officiated a same-sex wedding. In retaliation, someone tampered with the wheels of his truck, endangering the life of his daughter. If I ever find the individual responsible, God help that person, the former congressman writes now.

Out of office, Riggleman became a senior staffer to the House January 6 committee. Last spring, he resigned. The Breach is an account of what he learned, his decision to publish reportedly angering some on the panel.

The book is also a memoir, in which Riggleman describes growing up in a tumultuous home and his bouts with religion and his parents as well as the metamorphosis of the GOP into the party of Trump, and the events and people of January 6.

The rift between Trumps wing of the Republican party and objective reality didnt begin with the election, Riggleman writes.

He omits specific mention of birtherism, the Trump-fueled false contention that Barack Obama was not born a US citizen. He does acknowledge the explosion of conspiracy theories during the Trump years.

As a former intelligence officer and contractor, Riggleman places the blame on social media, algorithms and the religious divide. Together, such factors took a toll on the nation, democracy and the lives of the Republican base.

Hostility to Covid vaccines exacted an explosion in excess deaths among Republicans, 76% higher than for Democrats. In Florida, the Covid death rate eventually surpassed that of New York, to rank among the highest in the US. Owning the libs can kill you literally. Tens of thousands died on Trumps altar of Maga. For what?

Ron DeSantis, the Florida governor, actively encouraged vaccine skepticism. He refused to say whether he received the vaccine, and attempted to stop young children getting the shots. He is in the hunt for the Republican presidential nomination in two years time, second only to Trump.

The divine injunction against bearing false witness? It has elasticity.

Bob Good, a self-described biblical conservative who successfully challenged Riggleman for his Virginia seat, said Covid was a hoax. Jerry Falwell Jr, Goods boss at Liberty University, left that fundamentalist powerhouse in August 2020, amid a scandal ensnaring him, his wife and a pool boy.

Falwell was also one of Trumps most prominent supporters. Riggleman laments: It was stunning to see true born-again holy rollers lining up behind Trump, a man who shunned church and had already been caught on camera bragging about grabbing women by the crotch.

Likewise, he voices disgust for what has become of the party of Lincoln: As a kid the people I knew respected a line between church and state. Trumps party was veering more and more into Christian nationalism, where they demonized Democrats for having an unholy agenda.

Riggleman is also horrified by the involvement of ex-servicemen in the Capitol attack. Theres no denying it, he writes. The political challenge to the election was, at least on some level, linked to a military operation.

He reserves some of his harshest criticism for those closest to Trump. Mark Meadows, his last chief of staff; Mike Flynn, his first national security adviser; Roger Stone, his longtime political aide. Each played a major role in the insurrection.

As Riggleman recounts, Meadows defied the committee and refused to appear for deposition. But he did turn over 2,319 texts and messages, avoiding prosecution for contempt of Congress. Some of those texts came from 39 House Republicans and five senators.

Meadows gave us the keys to the kingdom, Riggleman writes, also describing the Meadows texts as the committees crown jewels.

As for Stone, the Republican dirty trickster was an apparent link between the brains and brawn of the Capitol attack.

On 7 November 2020, hours after the networks called the election for Joe Biden, Stuart Rhodes, the founder of Oath Keepers militia, messaged: Whats the plan We need to roll. Stone was part of the chat group. Rhodes now sits before a federal jury, charged with seditious conspiracy.

The final chapter of The Breach is devoted to Ginni Thomas, the wife of the supreme court justice Clarence Thomas. Its title: The Better Half. Riggleman raises Thomass past membership in Lifespring, a personal development program and purported cult. He says he found Thomas in Mark Meadows text messages after a hot tip and a case of mistaken identity. She wrote of watermarked ballots and a military whitehat sting operation. She mentioned TRUMP STING w CIA director Steve Pieczenik [actually a former state department official and conspiracy theorist]. She condemned the Biden crime family and ballot fraud conspirators.

Liz Cheney, the House committee vice-chair, asked Riggleman to pull back. The Wyoming Republican worried about exposing the Thomases as election deniers, QAnon followers, or both.

I think we need to remove that briefing, Cheney said, according to Rigglemans telling. Its going to be a political sideshow.

Months later, Cheney and the committee reversed course. On 29 September 2022, Thomas testified for more than four hours behind closed doors. She continued to claim the election was stolen.

In The Breach, Riggleman looks to the future.

We have a new enemy in this country, he writes, a domestic extremist movement that is growing online at fiber-optic speed. Is there a road back? To be honest, Im not quite sure.

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The Breach review: ex-January 6 staffer on how Republicans lurched into madness - The Guardian

Brace yourself: Voting is underway and were just one month away from what will likely be the most consequential midterm elections in years. Certainly the most consequential of the 10 cycles Ive covered over four decades, perhaps second only to the 1994 elections that gave Republicans control of both houses of Congress for the first time in 40 years.

Whatever the outcome whether Republicans win majorities in the House and Senate, one chamber or neither one thing is all but certain: Win or lose, the result wont be good for the partys long-term health or for the countrys.

Thats because a loss wont be the shellacking the Republicans need to reform and turn from their antidemocratic path. And if they win, well, theyll just triple down.

Opinion Columnist

Jackie Calmes

Jackie Calmes brings a critical eye to the national political scene. She has decades of experience covering the White House and Congress.

Only voters total repudiation might force Republicans to reckon with Trumpism. When a party is humiliated, its partisans look inward and correct course, as Democrats did after the Reagan era. A comeuppance didnt work to change Republicans after 2020, when President Trump lost, because the party made gains in other contests. (So much for Democrats supposed rigging of the election.)

By most accounts, Republicans wont be repudiated this year either. They only need net gains of five seats in House races and one in Senate contests to take over Congress. Theyve been favored from the start to capture the House, though its no longer a sure thing. This despite their sorry record during this two-year Congress, which began with nearly two-thirds of Republicans voting against certifying President Bidens election, even amid the blood and breakage left by Trumps insurrectionists that day.

The Senate is up for grabs. Polls suggest Republicans in swing states have either closed their summer gap against their Democratic rivals (Pennsylvania, Georgia, Colorado) or pulled slightly ahead (Wisconsin, Nevada). The tightening was expected in marquee races with Democratic front-runners notably John Fettermans run in Pennsylvania against Mehmet Oz and Sen. Raphael Warnocks bid for reelection in Georgia against Herschel Walker. (That was before this weeks reports alleging that the purportedly antiabortion Walker paid a longtime girlfriend, one of four women to have a child with him, to abort a pregnancy.)

Overall, Republican voters are falling in line as Nov. 8 approaches. Money is flowing to candidates in tight races, notably from Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnells fundraising committee. And nasty ads are airing on Republicans behalf, many blaming Democrats for crime. A new one in North Carolina unabashedly throws down the race card against Democrat Cheri Beasley, an African American former chief justice of the state Supreme Court who is running against Trumpist Rep. Ted Budd to take a Republican-held seat.

Historical trends are at play against Democrats, too, of course. Midterm elections have favored the party out of power for over a century. Several factors potentially make this cycle unique, however, and give Democrats hope: Theres the backlash against the Supreme Courts Dobbs ruling overturning Roe vs. Wade and red states rush to ban most or all abortions, and then theres the looming presence of Trump.

Republicans are saddled with a defeated president so narcissistic that he cant stand to have an election thats not about him. His sore-loser prominence on rally platforms and in the media, together with the record unpopularity of a right-wing Supreme Court he shaped, has Republicans in swing states on the defensive in a way thats unusual for the party out of power.

This week the New York Times election data-cruncher, Nate Cohn, wrote that while the likeliest outcome remains a Republican House majority, the idea that Democrats can hold the House is not as ridiculous, implausible or far-fetched as it seemed before the Dobbs ruling. The Cook Political Reports update on Wednesday agreed a Republican House majority was the likeliest outcome, yet its more restrained forecast had Republicans picking up barely what they need.

As for the Senate, the analysts at FiveThirtyEight.com posted a piece Thursday with the headline Democrats are slightly favored to win the Senate.

Even the worst-case scenarios for Republicans, however, dont suggest an outcome that would spur them to break from far-right extremism. Their intransigence reflects more than just polarization. Whats at work is a calcification of politics rooted in voters racial, national, ethnic and religious outlooks, three political scientists wrote last month in the Washington Post about tribalism in both

parties.

Voters are increasingly tied to their political loyalties and values. They have become less likely to change their basic political evaluations or vote for the other partys candidate, according to John Sides of Vanderbilt and Chris Tausanovitch and Lynn Vavreck of UCLA.

Take Walker he should be a dead man walking, what with the abortion allegation piled on all the other evidence hes unfit for the Senate. Yet his party support hasnt eroded, perhaps because Trump has so discredited accurate media reporting among Republicans that Georgias conservative voters simply cannot accept the allegation as anything but fake news.

Heres another belief that has calcified among Republicans: the Big Lie. On Thursday the Washington Post reported that a majority of Republican nominees for the House, Senate and key statewide offices 299 in all, in every region and nearly every state deny or question Bidens election. Most are likely to win they are running for safe Republican seats giving them some role in certifying future elections, whether as governors, election administrators or members of Congress.

That doesnt bode well for our democracy. Americans have seen this movie. We may see it again.

@jackiekcalmes

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Jackie Calmes: No matter what happens in the midterms, Republicans won't correct their troubling trajectory - Los Angeles Times

As the COVID-19 pandemic becomes more endemic in nature, policymakers are increasingly turning their attention to another underlying crisis in the U.S.: mental health, and a lack of services to meet the rising demand.

Lawmakersintroduced draft legislationlast month that aims to tackle the nations mental health workforce shortage. Subsequently, the House of Representatives passed a separate bill that would infuse more mental health professionals into schools and increase access to mental-health care for students.

That bill, called theMental Health Matters Act,passed in a 220-205 vote, with one Republican joining all Democrats voting in favor of it.

Rep. Mark DeSaulnier (D-CA.), who sponsored the bill, noted that educators have often been on the frontlines of dealing with the ongoing youth mental health crisis. This was highlighted by Surgeon General Dr. Vivek Murthy in a report andsubsequent action planreleased last year.

This dynamic has become especially strained given the rising rates of suicide, anxiety and depression, as well as gun violence among young people.

Our schools do not have the specialized staff necessary to respond to the increased prevalence and complexity of students mental health needs, DeSaulniersaid in a statement. Simply put, the Mental Health Matters Act delivers the resources students, educators and families need to improve their well-being.

Additionally, the bill would provide grant programs to schools to bolster their mental health services and providers.

It would also seek to improve mental health parity, ensuring that mental health and substance abuse conditions are equal to coverage under insurance plans as physical conditions. The bill would place penalties on insurers that dont comply with federal mental health parity requirements.

Some advocacy groups like the National Alliance on Mental Illness, and organizations like the American Psychiatric Association, touted the bill, noting that mental health parity would be integral to strengthening the nations mental health care infrastructure.

Still, the bill encountered pushback from House Republicans and certain industry groups who vocally opposed the bill. They argue that the provisions involving penalties would backfire and encourage insurers to drop mental health coverage entirely.

Rep. Virginia Foxx (R-NC) argued that the bill contains dangerous policy which would threaten access to critical workplace benefits.

Employers who offer mental health benefits under the Employee Retirement Income Security Act (ERISA) do so voluntarily, Foxx said in astatement. They should not be penalized for violating standards that are unclear and vague.

Industry groupERISA Industry Committee, meanwhile, argued the bill would increase costs and make it harder for employers to provide benefits.

A recentreportfrom the nonpartisan federal agency Congressional Budget Office estimated that given the number of violations of mental health parity rules -- about 11 per year -- penalty collections would amount to about $29 million in total between 2022 and 2032.

The bill now heads to the Senate, where Democrats hold a slim margin ahead of the upcoming midterm elections.

This story first appeared on mmm-online.com.

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Mental health parity bill faces Republican opposition - PR Week

Before you vote, remember who shut down our country for two years and longer the Democrats.

Besides those on the national level like President Biden, Nancy Pelosi and other swamp creatures, we have to look no further than our own state.

In Pennsylvania, we had Gov. Tom Wolf, Lt. Gov. John Fetterman and Attorney General Josh Shapiro shutting down the state and using state licensure blackmail threats to make small-business owners obey.

I thought they worked for us? Why and how did we let them take control of our lives? Why do some call them our leaders? I think they could care less about us and only care about maintaining their jobs and power.

These politicians have ruined many small businesses and hurt our childrens education forever and have seriously jeopardized the future of this country in favor of socialism and equity.

A vote for any Democrat is a vote to ruin the future for our children and grandchildren. They push critical race theory, defunding police, not prosecuting criminals and transgender boys sharing locker rooms with natural born females, and spend our tax dollars on pork projects and boondoggles.

The only sane vote this year and other years to follow is to vote Republican. Theyre not pure either, but they are the lesser of two evils.

Until we can get term limits and eliminate political action committees, the only clear choice is to vote Republican. This means voting no to Shapiro, Fetterman and all Democrats.

Save America and vote for our grandchildrens futures. Vote Republican, and may God bless the USA.

Leonard Stanga

Harrison

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Letter to the editor: Vote Republican to save our future - TribLIVE