Archive for the ‘Rand Paul’ Category

How 2009 Rand Paul will sabotage 2016 Rand Paul

So heres Rand Paul, in 2009, arguing that Dick Cheney used 9/11 as an excuse to invade Iraq and topple Saddam Hussein so that Halliburton, a contractor he was an executive at prior to his election as vice president, could profit. 9/11 became an excuse for a war they already wanted in Iraq, Paul says, of Cheney and Bush administration officials like Richard Perle.

The video of Pauls remarks comes from a story in Mother Jones by David Corn, suggesting that someone is trying to make Paul look like a kook. While this theory of the Iraq War isnt exactly uncommon on the left, it is not the sort of thing mainstream Republicans believe or say. Paul is still much less hawkish than most Washington Republicans, but he has spent much of his time in the Senate attempting to make himself acceptable to Republican elites, presumably in advance of the presidential campaign. But conservative foreign policy types are never going to embrace someone who was saying this sort of thing just a few years ago. If Rand Paul actually is running for president, he ought to get used to seeing YouTube clips like this one turn up in strange places.

Rand Paul has turned out to be a more talented politician than he seemed in 2009 and 2010, when he was still green enough to do things like unambiguously state his opinion on the Civil Rights Act. Hes polished enough now that hes commonly referred to as a 2016 front-runner. But his background is full of unseemly associations and dumb public statements thats a given for anyone who came up in the world of Ron Paul. Dave Weigels recent piece on the shady direct mail network that funded Pauls political operation is a good example of the sorts of things that will cause headaches for Rand Paul in a campaign with the full attention of the national press. And he hasnt quite put all of this behind him: Even in 2012, Rand was repeating historical theories from fringe-y paleoconservative thinkers.

Even if Rand Paul can escape blame for his fathers controversies like, say, the whole racist newsletter thing theres still plenty of material in his own history. There is, for example, his long history with toxic conspiracy maven Alex Jones. In a 2013 clip that Im sure Rand Pauls staff was thrilled to see, Jones said hes known Rand Paul for 15 years, and that Paul will probably end up being president unless hes defeated by the electronic voting machine fraud. And we havent even gotten to The Southern Avenger.

For the last few years, Paul has enjoyed generally soft press coverage, because the political press loves a renegade Republican. But Republican hawks arent going to let him anywhere near the nomination, and theyll spend the next two years digging up every slightly controversial thing he ever said to stop him.

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How 2009 Rand Paul will sabotage 2016 Rand Paul

What role will foreign policy play in the 2016 election? And what does that mean for Rand Paul?

When Mother Jones published a video of soon-to-be Sen. Rand Paul claiming that former vice president Dick Cheney pushed the Iraq War because of his ties to Halliburton, it was a good reminder of how much the potential 2016 presidential candidate differs from the rest of his party on foreign policy.

Unless an unpredictable international event in the next two years swallows the United States' attention span like the early years of the wars in the Middle East did, it's unclear his views, a malleable mush of his father's orthodox ban on intervention and a Reaganish devotion to "peace through strength," will matter much. Given the increasingly extracurricular role international affairs play on the list of important issues voters bring out once every four years, foreign policy seems unlikely on the surface to keep Rand Paul from the nomination if his party decides he's the one to beat. On the other hand, potential presidential candidates have been forced to air their views on international affairs quite a bit the past few months, as unforeseen events have crept into American policy discussions.

Let's unpack how foreign policy could affect Rand Paul's future political aspirations.

Senator Rand Paul (R-Ky.) shakes hands with a guest as he signs copies of his book "Government Bullies" at the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC), March 7, 2014. Reuters/Mike Theiler

There are considerable challenges in breaking with the Republican Party on foreign policy, something Rand Paul is well aware of thanks to his family's history.

Ron Paul is one of the most ideologically consistent politicians in the United States, and most of his policy ideas can end with, "because it would shrink government." On foreign policy, Ron Paul thinks the United States spends an inordinate amount. The best way to trim the budget is by stopping interventions and slashing foreign aid. While many of his fellow Republicans also advocate for a smaller government, the savings usually stop at America's shore. Paul Ryan's latest budget plan calls for extensive domestic savings, but a still-robust budget for the Pentagon.

Over his three presidential campaigns, Paul's stubbornly libertarian foreign policy lens defined his campaign -- and his supporters. Although Paul always rounded up a merry band of young libertarians to support his campaigns, the major donors, strategists and pundits in the Republican Party never took him too seriously, although his strengths as a candidate became more notable each time he tried. The rest of the political establishment never took him very seriously either. Here's a graph of news coverage of the 2012 presidential contenders in 2011.

Source: Pew Research Center

Regardless of the perception inside and outside the Republican Party, Ron Paul was doing something that resonated with a lot of people. His 2012 campaign raised more money than any other Republican candidate except for Mitt Romney. The top five employers who supported Ron Paul? The U.S. Army, the U.S. Air Force, the U.S. Navy, Google and the Department of Defense.Not only were Ron Paul's foreign policy views catching, but they were resonating with the same people tasked with carrying out that policy.

Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul seems to have picked up on the pros and cons of his father's foreign policy views. He's non-interventionist enough to appeal to libertarians, winning his dad's approval for being one of two senators to vote against the Ukraine aid package, but he's also willing to see a bit of gray in international affairs. He wrote an op-ed for Time Magazine saying that it is the United States' "role as a global leader to be the strongest nation in opposing Russias latest aggression."

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What role will foreign policy play in the 2016 election? And what does that mean for Rand Paul?

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