There's a tendency in Washington political circles to dismiss Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul's chances in the 2016 presidential race. He's not someone who could actually be the nominee, the argument goes, because his views -- especially on foreign policy -- are way outside the mainstream of GOP thought, and that fact means that he will never be accepted by a party establishment that still retains considerable sway in picking the party's standard-bearer.
And yet, Paul just keeps doing smart things to ensure that if he is able to get in a position to be the party's nominee, the establishment won't necessarily feel the need to try to keep the nomination from him. The latest smart move? RAND PAC, Paul's leadership political action committee, is going up with ads supporting Republican Senate incumbents and candidates in Kentucky, Kansas, Iowa, New Hampshire and North Carolina in the final week of the election.
None of the ad buys are massive or are likely to make any real impact in the final days of these races. But the point isn't really to sway persuadable voters. It's to (a) show that Rand is a team player and (b) build up some chits among people either in the Senate or, maybe, coming to the Senate in the next week or so.
Let's say Joni Ernst in Iowa winds up winning the state's open seat next Tuesday. And then in a few months (or maybe even weeks) Rand announces that he is running for president. Shortly after making that announcement, he calls newly elected Senator Ernst, a favorite of Iowa's conservatives. And, on that call, he reminds Ernst that when she needed him most he was there -- appearing at a rally by her side at the University of Iowa and spending money out of his own campaign coffers to help her win. Given that, he'd love to have her on his Iowa team for president. Of course, he doesn't need her to commit right away -- although that would be great -- but just wanted to plant the seed.
Now, simply because Paul gave of his time and his money doesn't mean that Ernst will feel compelled to endorse him for president. Lots of people -- including many who will likely run for president -- came in to help Ernst and will claim some level of credit if she wins. But the very fact that Paul is thinking about the best ways to court influential pols (or potential pols) in key swing states suggests a level of strategic planning -- and savvy -- that most people don't ascribe to him.
And, as I noted above, it's far from the first smart thing Paul has done as he tries to make sure the establishment knows he doesn't have horns and a tail. Earlier this year, Paul courted major donors at a fundraiser in Atlanta -- not necessarily with the expectation that they would all be for him in 2016 but with the hope that they wouldn't all be aggressively against him either. He's done lots of things like that -- with pols and donors -- over the last 18 months or so, a concerted effort that suggest Paul not only understands how he is perceived by some in the establishment but is also committed to trying to change that perception.
Now, making smart moves in November 2014 is one thing. Making smart moves in January 2016 is another. But, the best candidates (a.k.a. the ones who win) not only play the long game but start playing it long before most people are even thinking about the game. Rand Paul is doing just that.
Chris Cillizza writes The Fix, a politics blog for the Washington Post. He also covers the White House.
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Rand Paul is smarter than you think he is