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Almost no one seriously thinks that Sean Haugh will be the next senator from North Carolina. But political observers in both major parties are worried that the pizza deliveryman and Libertarian candidate could siphon enough votes to sway the election, likely to be one of the closest in the country on Tuesday. And stakes couldnt be higher: any one election could determine control of the Senate in 2015.

But which party has more to fear from Haugh? Kentucky Senator Rand Paul campaigned for Republican nominee Thom Tillis in early October, a move seen as an attempt to shore up Libertarian-leaning Republican voters. More recently, the American Future Fund, a conservative outside spending group, bet $225,000 that Haugh could flip the election in the Republicans with an ad campaign focused on his unembarrassed enthusiasm for marijuana, aimed to draw away younger supporters of Democratic incumbent Kay Hagan.

Though Haugh is currently polling at around 5 percentmore than the margin between Tillis and Haganhe is very unlikely to spoil anything other than the hopes of a few misled pot smokers. While the threat of spoiler candidates makes for breathless headlines and titillating front-page reads, the real odds of this happening are extremely slim.

For starters, it is very rare for a Congressional contest to be decided by a margin small enough for a third-party candidate to make a difference. Of the 1,873 elections that TIME examinedevery House and Senate race going back to 2006, not including special elections and runoffsonly 70 were won with less than 50 percent of the vote. A Libertarian candidate ran in 46 of them.

The threat of a spoiler candidate is further exaggerated by the common assumption that third-party voters would otherwise turn up at the polls at all.

Thats the old style to think about voting, says Stanford professor Jon Krosnick, a social psychologist and polling expert. Weve now come to recognize that the candidates influence turnout. The presence of the third-party candidate can lure people to vote who otherwise wouldnt have voted at all.

Its impossible to know with any precision how people would have behaved without the presence of a third-party candidate. Even asking them in polls is unreliable, given that pollsters typically report unrealistically high turnout figures when they ask people if they voted.

The picture is confounded yet further by the fact that a distaste for the major parties is often the motivation that draw a person to a third-party candidate in the first place.

Thats a view shared by Emily Salvette, who drew 10,630 votes as a Libertarian in the 2012 race for Michigans 1st District. I do honestly think that a lot of people wouldnt have voted, she says. Theyre not engaged anymore because they dont like the choice. The Republican in that contest, Congressman Dan Benishek, edged out his Democratic challenger by 1,881 votes.

Depending whose base you think Salvette drew from, you might call her either a spoiler or nearly one. But Salvette says she saw support from voters with a variety of viewpoints, including people who supported her views on everything from medical marijuana to gun rights.

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These 9 Slides Show the Surprisingly Low Impact of Libertarian Candidates

Blair YankeyWestern Herald Intern

Libertarian candidate Scotty Boman will make his second run for lieutenant governor alongside running mate gubernatorial candidate Mary Buzuma in the Nov. 4 election.

Scotty Boman Photo Courtesy

Boman is a Detroit native and a Western Michigan University alumnus. He earned his bachelors degree with a double major in physics and philosophy and a minor in mathematics in 1985, followed by a masters degree in atomic physics in 1987.

In 2006, he was gubernatorial candidate Gregory Creswells running mate in the gubernatorial election.He has been a candidate in every statewide partisan election since 1994 when he ran for State Representative in the seventh district.

Boman currently serves as a physics and math instructor at Wayne County Community College and an astronomy and physics instructor at Macomb Community College. He also substitute teaches in a few suburban districts in the Detroit area.

Below, Boman answers questions on topics regarding his qualifications, his plans to keep college graduates in Michigan and the importance of voting among young college students.

Q: What qualities do you believe you have to be lieutenant governor?

A: A passion for individual liberty and an understanding of what that means. I recognize that there is a great abyss between the government Michiganders have and the one [Mary Buzuma and I] would like to see. So I am willing to work with people who dont share our political belief in areas that can move us in the direction of a smaller, less intrusive, government.

I also have some administrative experience on a much smaller scale as former chair of the Libertarian Party of Michigan and as vice chair. I have also served on my student council when I attended graduate school at Wayne State University. These are small scale examples and we would appoint people who were experts in state government to whom we could delegate tasks.

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Libertarian candidate to make second run in the November election

CLEARWATER (FOX 13) -

While Florida Gubernatorial candidates Republican Gov. Rick Scott and Democrat Charlie Crist made their final stops around the state on Monday, Libertarian Adrian Wyllie spent a low-key day at home in Palm Harbor, gearing up for Election Day.

You may not have heard his name as often as Scott or Crist, but for the past two years, Wyllie has been criss-crossing the state, shaking a lot of hands and sharing a couple beers along the way.

"It's been a lot of time on the road," Wyllie said.

He's traveled 100,000 miles to be exact, with just a handful of paid staff members.

"Win or lose, we really think that we've shown the people of Florida that it is a three-party state. The two-party duopoly is over," Wyllie said.

The latest Quinnipiac voters poll projects Wyllie at seven percent, with Crist at 42% and Scott at 41%. That last nine percent goes to the undecided voters.

Monday night, Libertarian groups around the country joined together to drop a "Twitter bomb, flooding the internet with tweets in support of Wyllie and other like-minded candidates.

"We have seen so many people who say they are coming out to vote for the first time, specifically because they feel like they have something to vote for, instead of having to vote for the lesser of two evils," Wyllie said.

Though Barbara Davis of Clearwater is a registered Republican, she finally got fed up with the attack ads -- so she's switching up her vote.

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For Libertarian Adrian Wyllie, victory in offering an alternative

Agora Underground: New Libertarian Manifesto Pt. 5
The Voluntary Virtues Network is a voluntaryist network, and is comprised of hundreds of different individuals. Their voices are their voices, not the networks. VVN is simply a platform for...

By: Voluntary Virtues Network

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Agora Underground: New Libertarian Manifesto Pt. 5 - Video

By Sharon Nunn | Published 3 hours ago

Sean Haugh, North Carolina Libertarian Senate candidate, has the power to swing the vote in this year's election between Republican candidate Thom Tillis and Democrat candidate Kay Hagan who are currently in a statistical dead heat.

The 53-year-old pizza-delivering Libertarian candidate running for U.S. Senate against Thom Tillis and Kay Hagan says he doesnt want any part of the campaigns negativity and attack ads.

In light of a recent analysis that found North Carolinas Senate race has featured more negative ads than any other state, Sean Haugh said in an interview on Friday that his campaign has focused on the positive reasons N.C. residents should vote for him.

Haugh, a Durham resident, thinks Tilliss and Hagans negative ads will help him in the race.

People look at that, and theyre just so disgusted by it, and then they find out they have a third choice on the ballot, he said. Ive been getting a tremendous response from people who are turned off by all that negativity.

It is Haughs sixth time running for political office. He said he has always stood for Libertarian views.

We need to balance the budget at a much lower level, get out in front of this debt and let people keep more of the money that they earn, he said.

AlthoughHaugh has garnered at most 8 percent of the vote in polls this fall, he said the people who vote for him send a strong message to Democrats and Republicans that theyre going to have to start holding more Libertarian views.

He said he ran on an act of conscience because neither Hagan nor Tillis would try to curb war.

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US Senate candidate and pizza delivery man reflects on campaign