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Fate of 39 Indians missing in Iraq for 3 years still unknown Miami Herald Iraq's foreign minister said Monday he does not know whether 39 Indian workers who were abducted by militants in Iraq three years ago are dead or alive. Foreign Minister Ibrahim al-Jaafari met with his Indian counterpart, Sushma Swaraj, and other ... No substantial evidence on 39 missing Indians, says IraqEconomic Times Iraq not sure of fate of 39 IndiansThe Hindu On Missing Indians, Congress Preps Privilege Notice Against Sushma SwarajNDTV Firstpost all 90 news articles »

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Fate of 39 Indians missing in Iraq for 3 years still unknown - Miami Herald

This year has been a pretty interesting ride for oil. Right now, prices appear to be trading near the low-end of a specific range of about $45 to $55 per barrel amidst fears of not only higher US output but also because the market fears that OPEC may be backtracking on its production goals. In what follows, I want to dig into some data that shows it's not OPEC that has been the problem but, rather, one of its members. No, I'm not talking about Libya or Nigeria here but am talking about, instead, a larger player in the group than both of these combined.

Last year, OPEC decided, after a two-year long war on US shale, to finally cut production to the tune of around 1.2 million barrels per day. They also negotiated cuts with some non-OPEC nations, namely Russia, to slash nearly 0.6 million barrels of extra oil from the market as well. Prices surged initially and everybody, myself included, thought the road higher would be easier than it ended up being. There was also a concern (not from myself but from others) that OPEC wouldn't honor their pledge. That said, on the whole, OPEC has defied those expectations and has cut.

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If you look at the graph above, for instance, you can see the goal OPEC set for itself last year in terms of production. This data excludes output from Libya and Nigeria since both of those nations were exempt from cuts. It also excludes Equatorial Guinea since it's a new addition to the group and had no specific limit set. In the graph, you can also see how OPEC's production has looked, using the group's own estimates, compared to their goal. In the next graph below, you can see the difference between these two figures.

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Overall, OPEC's work, less what has been done by Libya and Nigeria, has been phenomenal. By my math, if you look at the output, production has been mostly lower each month. Sure, as you can see in the graph below, June was bad with 1.56 million barrels produced in excess of what was planned, but total output since the start of this year has been 5.41 million barrels below what OPEC said they would pump out. This shows commitment but, most importantly, it should help to reduce the global oil glut faster.

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While OPEC, on the whole, has done well, the same cannot be said of Iraq. If you look at the graph below, for instance, you can see the nation's average daily output, reported each month, compared to what the nation promised to produce last year. Not one single month has the nation reported at or below its target. It's best month was April, when production averaged just 30 thousand barrels per day above the goal but, since then, output has moved higher. In June, production was 0.15 million barrels per day higher than the country promised last year.

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In the next graph, as shown below, you can see that this isn't even the worst of it. You see, while OPEC reports its own estimates of output for each of its member nations, some nations provide their own estimates of what they produced. As you can see, Iraq isn't even trying to hide the fact that they are producing above what was agreed upon. In fact, they may even be proud of it since the country's own estimates put oil production quite a bit higher than OPEC's own estimates. Generally speaking, I am inclined to believe data like this over estimates, but I don't know what to make of this situation.

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If we assume that OPEC's estimates for Iraq are correct, we can generate a graph like the one below. In it, you can see that oil production from the group as a whole would have been consistently below the target if Iraq had behaved accordingly. The best month would have been a draw from the group totaling 6.42 million barrels, while aggregate production over the first six months of this year would have been 21.53 million barrels lower than under perfect adherence to their plan.

*Created by Author

Besides Saudi Arabia, which has been doing most of the heavy-lifting this year, another interesting nation is Iran. Last year, one common fear I heard from oil bears was that the country would never cooperate on a cut with the rest of OPEC, largely due to its animosity toward Saudi Arabia and other Sunni-majority nations. Certainly, from a political perspective, this makes sense but, as I have always believed, politics only has a short-term sway while economics will always drive things in the long run.

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Sure enough, as you can see in the graph above, Iran has done really well in terms of adhering to its target of 3.797 million barrels per day. Five of the past six months have seen production average below that (February was the exception). On the oil front, I believe that Iran is the most likely to destroy the existing oil deal because of political concerns but, even so, the nation has managed to behave because it knows that doing so, especially when Saudi Arabia has cut beyond expectations, is in its own best interests. This means the fear that Iran may exit the deal at any point is probably vastly overstated.

Based on the data provided, it seems to me that OPEC, as a whole, has been doing its job. Sure, it's bad to see Libya and Nigeria both increase output, but that was largely expected. What's not expected, however, is to see Saudi Arabia and other nations do all the heavy-lifting to offset Iraq's shortcomings. While I am certainly still bullish on oil, I believe that OPEC needs to pressure Iraq to fulfill its end of the bargain because, not only will it help the market rebalance, but it might increase the sense of unity among the group. A continuation of the country not adhering to the group's agreement may otherwise unsettle things and pose a risk for oil bulls.

Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

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Iraq: OPEC's Problem Child - Seeking Alpha

Matthew Vickery, Special for USA TODAY Published 7:00 a.m. ET July 24, 2017 | Updated 3:10 p.m. ET July 24, 2017

Shadi Mohammed works on a customers car in her garage staffed by women in the Iraqi city of Sulaimani. (Photo: Halwest Abdulkareem)

SULAIMANI, Iraq Sitting under shelves decked with dozens of brightly colored bottles of motor oil, Shadi Mohammed shouts to be heard over nearby machines.

"This is Shadi's garage!" she yells as she raises her oil-stained hands with enthusiasm, knowing she's an anomaly in this conservative, male-dominated country.

Mohammed is an extraordinarymechanic in an ordinary garage in this Kurdish city near the border with Iran: Everyoneworking under the hoods of flashy pickups and all-terrain vehicles are all women. They areearning a wage for their families and creating a mini-revolution in the process.

"I want to change the perception of society toward women and toward what they think women can do," explained Mohammed, 45. "Show them that woman are also capable of running a garage like this just like men do here."

The charismaticbusinesswoman and former civil servant never planned to don overalls and transform herself into a mechanic. But asan economic crisis hits the Kurdish region of northern Iraq, where public sectorwages have beenslashed up to 75%, she needed a new way to provide for her family.

With two daughters looking to their mother as a role model, Mohammed wanted to prove that Iraqi women could have whatever career they wanted. So she decided to take on one ofthe most male-dominated professions fixing cars.

When I realized this job had never been done by women before in Iraq, it encouraged me to go ahead with the idea of running an auto-repair garage, Mohammed told USA TODAYon a blisteringhot day. I wanted to show that women could take care of themselves, and help encourage women to gain experience in this trade.

She also wanted to create a garage where women would feel comfortable when they bring in their vehiclewithout facing ridicule or harassment from men.

Three months later, and $10,000 of savings spent, she saidher business is doing well, and she regrets nothing.

Mohammed admits she is a self-taught mechanic whosefour-woman team takes on more complex jobs every day. The current aim is to master automotive electronics in the coming months.

Just 11% of women in Iraq's Kurdistan region were employed last year, compared to nearly 19% in the Middle East,according to the World Bank.Only one in 100 of those women had jobs in the private sector, where men and women are more likely to interact something frowned upon in acountrywhere traditional gender roles are still prevalent.

Many of the women who buck this trend still end up leaving the workplace between the ages of 25 to 29 to fulfill family roles at home.

In choosing to be a mechanic, Mohammed battles sexism and ridicule daily at her garage.

During a recent visit by USA TODAY, one customer came in and lingered around Mohammed for an hour, offering gifts and later asking her to check his 4x4.

Theres nothing wrong with it, she said matter-of-factly after popping the hood and checking, as the vehicle owner leered behind her.

Suchbehavior is a daily occurrence male customersfake having vehicle problems so they can watch Mohammed and her female workers.

I would not face the harassment that I am facing now if I were a man," Mohammed said."I am familiar with my societys behavior. In some cases people just visit us because we have women working here.

Fatah Sleman, one of the female mechanics who works at the auto-repair garage, checks a vehicle's tires as a customer looks on.(Photo: Halwest Abdulkareem)

She said she had to hire women in secret after a public attempt to find women workers was met with ridicule.

Fatah Sleman, one of her employees, said she was grateful for the work Mohammed provided and the opportunity to prove that women shouldnt be confined to home or jobs traditionally held by women.

I dont want careers like this one to be occupied just by men, said Sleman, 37. I want to tell women, there is no difference between us and men, and that its our right to try different careers.

Despite facing ridicule and harassment, the women say theyre thankful for the customers who show respect and support their business.

One of those customers, Aros Ghafur, said he had never beforeseena garage owned and run by women but was pleased with the work they did.

I see a clear future of success in what Shadi is doing.I have really encouraged her to keep doing her job, said Ghafur, 31, a Sulaimani resident.

Success for Mohammed is not just increasing profits, but alsoinspiringother female employees.

And its working. Sparked by Mohammed's give-it-a-go attitude and confidence in taking on Iraqi society, her employees want to encourage other womento do the same.

Eyeing the future, Mohammed plans to hire more women and relocate her auto-repair business to a larger site, but she expects little helpalong the way.

Nobody has tried to stop me or close my garage, but neither has anyone or the government helped or assisted me with it, she said. Maybe they dont want to lessen gender discrimination here.

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Female mechanics spark gender revolution in Iraq - USA TODAY

MOSCOW, Russian Federation Iraqs Vice President Nouri al-Maliki has told Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov in Moscow that Baghdad wants Russia to play a bigger role in Iraq so that there is a balanced policy that does not allow a foreign political entity to impose its agenda in Iraq.

Maliki and Lavrov met on Monday after the Iraqi leader started an official visit to Russia, with Maliki expected to meet the Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday in Saint Petersburg.

Lavrov noted the fact that it is not the first time Maliki visits Russia, following his 2012 official visit in his capacity as the then Prime Minister of Iraq.

He said that they are open to help develop and strengthen relations between the two sides, especially economically, and in the fight against terrorism.

Maliki said that Russia wants to expand the bilateral relations and that the Russian foreign minister has praised the Baghdad Operation room, jointly run by Iraq, Iran, Syria and Russia where the member states share intelligence.

Maliki told the Russian FM that Baghdad wants to create a balanced policy in Iraq, in cooperation with Russia, so that it does not allow for disorder to happen whereby a foreign political entity may impose its agenda in the country.

Maliki also showed his appreciation for the Russian role in Syria that preserved the region from a total collapse.

While he celebrated the victory in Mosul against ISIS, Maliki was fearful of what may come next.

He called it a new stage in Iraq that comes after the defeat of the ISIS group, followed by the upcoming general elections in Iraq next year.

May be Iraq is prone to new political developments in light of regional interferences, Maliki said briefly as he sat opposite the Russian FM.

He also said that there were some practices that threatened the unity of Iraq, perhaps a reference to the September 25 independence referendum to be held by the Kurdistan Region, something Maliki expressed his objections to on more than an occasion.

Iraq and Russia have a $4.2 billion outstanding arms deal that was signed by the then PM Maliki on a visit to Moscow in 2012.

The deal was put on hold amid a corruption and bribery scandal involving senior Iraqi defense officials.

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Baghdad needs Russia to balance foreign influence in Iraq, VP Maliki - Rudaw

wbur

July 24, 2017 Updated July 24, 2017 2:52 PM

Nicola Benyahia grew up Anglican and converted to Islam as an older teen. She considered herself religiously liberal, and Western. So it came as a surprise when her son Rasheed was radicalized, eventually running away to join ISIS. Rasheed was killed in an airstrike in Iraq in 2015.

Benyahia joins Here & Now's Robin Young to talk about her family's tragedy, and her work helping other families fight indoctrination and radicalization of their children.

On her initial reactionwhen Rasheed's behavior started to change

"I kind of just thought he was going through some sort of teenage angst, really. And my daughters I have four daughters and they'd gone through kind of the teenage stuff as well. So being a boy, I thought maybe he was just going through it in a different kind of way. But it was, again, over about a year, year and a half period when sort of small things started changing that were kind of more religious. And that was what was concerning me more than anything."

On whether it felt like a stranger had taken her son

"It did. I would say particularly the last sort of six to eight months. There was a very... a big change within his own character, because as you said before, he was a very smiley, very happy-go-lucky... I can't remember a time where he ever became angry or was kind of unhappy. And so when he became more rigid, and he wasn't joining in with the fun in our family life, that was what was most significant for me. That was really, really out of character and strange for me."

On whether there's anything she regrets not doing

"Obviously, you know on hindsight and looking back, I've reflected constantly about the past. And looking back, at the time, with the tools and what I knew at the time, really I couldn't have changed anything. I didn't have the right people around me, I didn't have the right skills, I didn't have the right knowledge. At the time I just did the best I could as a mother, and there wasn't an awful lot really of assistance or help, really, in the U.K."

"When he became more rigid, and he wasn't joining in with the fun in our family life, that was what was most significant for me."

On how Rasheed sounded when she first heard from him after he went missing

"The first call I got from him after he'd been missing about two and a half months, he was exactly the same. He was slightly panicky, because he'd known that he hadn't been in touch for nearly three months, so I could hear his voice shake. He was full of emotion because he'd just been released from a camp. The homesickness and missing us was all just coming out. But after that, I almost had to view it the phone calls I got from him I had to literally, to get through them, I had to view it as if he was just at college down the road, because I would not have been able to get through those phone calls with him had I really understood where he was."

On being toldthat her son had been killed in an airstrike

"I had been expecting it, because I heard the stories from other mothers and other parents who had had similar stories, and I knew it was only literally every day that passed was just an extra day that he was living. Psychologically and emotionally I was preparing myself for that call."

"[The ISIS fighter] just said, you know, 'Are you the parents of Rasheed?' And we confirmed, we said, 'Yes.' And he said, 'I'm really sorry to tell you but your son's been killed. He was hit by an airstrike and he was taken outright.' But I think what was very difficult for me, which kind of hurt me and upset me, was he just turned around and even began to cry himself and said, 'Your son was a very, very good boy. He was a very respectful boy.' I thought, 'If you knew that, why did you do this to him?'"

"In a way, as awful as it sounds coming from a mother, part of me was glad that he died when he died, because I no longer had to fear thinking that he may do something like that."

On seeing attacks like the 2015 Paris terror attacks and thinking of her son

"Whenever there was any kind of attack or anywhere, you know, even when my son was out in Syria, it scared me thinking, you know, 'What if they made him return or made him do something.' So anything that was on the news or in the paper, it never went out my mind that that could be possibly my son, that they could make him do something. So in a way, as awful as it sounds coming from a mother, part of me was glad that he died when he died, because I no longer had to fear thinking that he may do something like that."

On her advice for families in recognizing and preventing radicalization

"I think it's going with your gut feeling, because there aren't these magical signs. The family will have a gut feeling, or there's something not quite right. And what I do with the families is make sure that I validate that and I work through that with them."

"I think I always encourage the family to have the authorities on board as well. You need a whole team around that family and the individual to kind of really sort of intervene with this, and everyone has a part to play, whether it's the sort of social services here, or welfare, whether it's the police authorities. Everybody has their part around that individual to deradicalize them. But meanwhile, I'm there to support them emotionally and psychologically, because the radicalization can change from sort of week to week. And they have to obviously live with this individual and cope with them, and that can be incredibly draining on their own mental health as well."

This segment aired on July 24, 2017.

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UK Mother Of Jihadi Killed In Iraq Helps Families Fight Radicalization - Here And Now