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An uncertain future for fossil fuels and long-standing political turmoil have not deterred Iraq from declaring lofty ambitions to nearly double its crude output capacity to 8 million b/d by 2027.

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But the cash-strapped country would require unprecedented levels of outside investment at a time when many international oil companies, already unimpressed with the fiscal terms Iraq has offered for years, are seeking to de-risk their portfolios.

Iraq would need funds not only to boost drilling, but also to massively expand its surface production facilities and export infrastructure, and drastically reduce the vast associated gas flaring that has made it one of the most polluting oil producing countries.

In the north, the Kurdistan Regional Government's chronic cash flow shortages and budget disputes with the federal government in Baghdad remain major obstacles to growing its oil sector.

It adds up to significant doubt over the likelihood Iraq can hit its declared production target.

"I do not think the 8 million b/d is technically real or achievable," said Hussain al-Chalabi, a London-based Iraqi oil consultant who in 2020 was nominated to become the country's oil minister before the fledgling government of Prime Minister-designate Mohammed Allawi collapsed.

By now, Iraq was supposed to be pumping more than 9 million b/d, according to its National Energy Strategic Plan adopted in 2013, which would have put it in the same league as oil giants the US, Russia and fellow OPEC member Saudi Arabia.

But years of insurgency by the Islamic State ravaged its economy and destabilized its political system. Then the coronavirus pandemic crashed oil prices, prompting OPEC and its allies to institute historic production cuts in 2020, which have been gradually unwound.

Iraqi crude production, including from the semiautonomous Kurdish region, was 4.17 million b/d in October, according to the latest S&P Global Platts survey of OPEC output.

Platts Analytics projects that Iraq's crude production capacity, not including condensate and NGLs, will reach just 4.72 million b/d in 2027, and eventually rise to 5.74 million b/d by 2040 solid growth, but nowhere near the 8 million b/d target announced by oil minister Ihsan Ismaael in October.

Some Iraqi analysts told Platts they believe the country could achieve 6 million b/d by 2027, but that would be highly dependent on prevailing policies, OPEC+ quotas and other potential constraints.

The ministry has recently signed several deals to boost output, notably a $27 billion contract with TotalEnergies that includes raising production at the Ratawi oil field from 85,000 b/d to 210,000 b/d by 2027.

Iraq also has ongoing drilling contracts at its Rumaila, Majnoon, Dhi-Qar and Zubair oil fields, and just inked another agreement for 96 new wells at West Qurna-1. Ismaael said Nov. 19 that West Qurna-2, operated by Lukoil, would reach peak production of 800,000 b/d by 2027, doubling its current output.

Lukoil has also submitted a preliminary development proposal for the Eridu field, which may yield 250,000 b/d at peak.

New surface production facilities are being built in Majnoon and Zubair, but no other similar projects are in the works for other fields. However, at Rumaila, existing infrastructure would allow the field to produce 150,000 b/d more than its current capacity of 1.45 million b/d.

To raise substantial new investment, Iraq would need to markedly improve its fiscal terms, observers say. The ministry has typically relied on technical service contracts with foreign operators, such as ExxonMobil, BP and Shell.

But IOCs largely prefer production sharing contracts that would allow them to count reserves on their balance sheets and boost their valuations. Despite holding some of the cheapest reserves to develop, Iraq has generated lukewarm interest in its most recent bidding rounds over the past decade.

Already, Iraq has seen Shell exit its investment in Majnoon, while ExxonMobil has filed for arbitration to sell off its share in West Qurna-1 against the wishes of the oil ministry, and BP spun off its Rumaila operations into a new subsidiary under its energy transition strategy. Lukoil also sought to offload its West Qurna-2 stake before withdrawing its request in July.

Beyond the fiscal terms, many western oil companies are facing regulatory and shareholder pressure to green their holdings.

"IOCs are less attracted to new investment in their oil sector, and they are trying to abide by sustainable development goals and restructuring their portfolios," Chalabi said.

A major environmental concern is gas flaring. Iraq burned 17.37 Bcm of associated gas in 2020, the second highest globally behind Russia, according to the World Bank.

Iraq is planning to spend $3 billion annually to eliminate flaring by 2025, but increasing crude production to 8 million b/d would substantially increase volumes of associated gas, requiring more investment in capture and treatment plants that could eat into profits from higher crude sales.

In the Kurdish region, the KRG, fiscally overspent after being on the front lines of the battle against the IS, has frequently fallen behind in payments to IOCs, and the budget struggles have reduced the attractiveness of oil development, analysts say.

KRG-controlled production has been about 470,000 b/d in recent months, according to Platts estimates, down from a peak of roughly 600,000 to 650,000 b/d in 2017 before a political row between Erbil and Baghdad led to the federal government's seizure of the Avanah Dome and Bai Hassan field.

Shwan Zulal, a London-based consultant specializing in the Kurdistan region, said the risky investment climate there makes the prospects of rapidly raising crude production difficult.

"You have to attract people to invest," he said. "There are proven reserves. The capacity is there. It's possible, but the politics of producing more oil are difficult."

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Ever ambitious Iraq faces uphill struggle to reach new oil production target - S&P Global

Ian Fishback, a former Army officer who in 2005 raised concerns about the treatment of detainees in the Global War on Terror, died Nov. 19 at an adult treatment facility in Michigan. He was 42 years old. (Facebook)

Ian Fishback, a former Army officer who in 2005 raised concerns about the treatment of detainees in the Global War on Terror, died Nov. 19 at an adult treatment facility in Michigan. He was 42 years old.

In a statement posted with Fishbacks obituary, the veterans family thanked his hometown community in Newberry, Mich., for the support provided Fishback in recent difficult times.

He faced many challenges and many of us felt helpless. We tried to get him the help he needed. It appears the system failed him utterly and tragically. There are many questions surrounding his death and the official cause of death is unknown at this time. We can assure you that we will get to the bottom of this. We will seek justice for Ian, because justice is what mattered most to him, according to the statement.

Fishbacks mental health had declined recently and he struggled to get access to medical and mental health care from Veterans Affairs, said his longtime friend Justin Ford.

For those who knew Fishback, his friend said that his actions regarding the inhumane treatment of detainees came as no surprise. He always had a strong moral and ethical compass and held tightly to those principles, Ford said.

Standing up for what you believe in is never easy. And it wasn't easy on him, he said. He paid a price.

In 2005, while a captain in the 82nd Airborne Division, Fishback wrote to Sen. John McCain about his concerns over the treatment of detainees and whether the Geneva Convention applied to Iraq and Afghanistan.

He wrote that he sought answers for 17 months, but found none.

Instead of resolving my concerns, the approach for clarification process leaves me deeply troubled, Fishback wrote. I am certain that this confusion contributed to a wide range of abuses including death threats, beatings, broken bones, murder, exposure to elements, extreme forced physical exertion, hostage-taking, stripping, sleep deprivation and degrading treatment. I and troops under my command witnessed some of these abuses in both Afghanistan and Iraq.

Later that year, the Senate passed legislation from McCain to prohibit inhumane treatment and Time magazine named Fishback to its list of the 100 most influential people in the world.

Fishback went on to serve with the Green Berets and later taught at his alma mater, the U.S. Military Academy at West Point. He left the Army as a major and often spoke on panels about his decision to call attention to detainee treatment in Iraq and Afghanistan.

He wanted to support his soldiers, he wanted to support the United States government and he wanted to call us to our better angels both the U.S. government and the people that were leading that the soldiers, Ford said.

Fishback is survived by his mother and father, his sister, his ex-wife and his daughter, he said. The veterans family will hold a memorial service this weekend, according to his obituary. The family has asked that those looking to honor Fishbacks life donate to the nonprofits, Human Rights Watch or Women for Women International.

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Army officer who wrote to McCain about detainee torture in Iraq, Afghanistan, dies at 42 - Stars and Stripes

Besides directly delivering medical care, MSF is also helping the citys health system to get back on its feet providing the required support to ensure it can cope with new emergencies.

In 2019, MSF rebuilt a hospital dedicated to the treatment of infectious disease in the east of Mosul, improving access to health services for the local community.

And, between March and December 2020, we supported the citys hospitals to deal with the COVID-19 pandemic when our teams temporarily transformed a post-operative care centre into an isolation and treatment centre for coronavirus patients.

During that time, we directly cared for almost 1,000 patients at the centre. We also ran an intensive care unit between November 2020 and April 2021, offering advanced care for critically ill COVID-19 patients.

Our activities in the city are evolving with the challenges, says Van der Woerdt.

And were trying to adapt to the best of our ability to the populations medical needs, guided solely by our medical ethics and neutral and impartial principles.

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Iraq: The battle is over, but recovery takes years - MSF UK

The US issued its highest level travel alert for Iraq on Tuesday, urging citizens not to travel to the war-scarred country because of mounting security risks and Covid-19.

Do not travel to Iraq due to terrorism, kidnapping, armed conflict, civil unrest, Covid-19, the US State Department said on its website, adding that its diplomatic mission to Iraq has a limited capacity to provide support to US citizens.

It said US citizens are at risk of violence and kidnapping due to attacks by militant groups against Iraqi security forces and almost daily attacks by Iran-backed Shiite militias against US assets in the country.

The statement said sporadic protests can develop quickly without prior notification, often interrupting traffic, transportation, and other services; such events have the potential to turn violent.

It also cited the Level 4 Travel Health Notice issued by the US Centres for Disease Control and Prevention, which advises Americans to avoid travelling to Iraq, saying even fully vaccinated travellers may be at risk of contracting the virus.

Although coronavirus infections have dropped significantly in recent weeks to less than 1,000 a day, health authorities have warned a fourth wave of the pandemic is imminent.

On Monday, the country registered 829 new cases and 21 deaths, taking the total number of confirmed infections to 2,075,248 and known fatalities to 23,686, although the real figures are thought by experts to be much higher.

The decision has taken Iraqis by surprise as Covid-19 restrictions have eased. Foreign tourists, businessmen and archaeologists have been returning.

Amir Abdul-Razaq Al Zubaidi, general director of the provincial antiquities department in the southern Thi Qar province, described the decision as hasty.

A view inside Thi Qar museum

We are surprised because Iraq has significantly recovered from coronavirus and the number of tourists from all the world, mainly from the US, is increasing, Mr Al Zubaidi told The National.

He said American tourists and others are already travelling freely in his province and other parts of southern Iraq without any problem.

We don't want cross-cultural communication to be affected and so we hope that the US administration will reconsider such a decision, he added.

Last month, Iraq held early national elections to choose a new parliament, the fifth since the 2003 US-led invasion that toppled Saddam Husseins regime.

Early elections were one of numerous demands of the pro-reform, youth-led protest movement that engulfed the country in October 2019.

Initial results show that a political group sponsored by the Shiite cleric Moqtada Al Sadr, known as the Sadrist bloc, was the clear winner in the elections, securing 73 seats in the 329-member parliament.

The Iran-backed Fatah Alliance, made up mainly of pro-Tehran Shiite militias, won only 14 seats, significantly fewer than the 48 seats it secured in 2018 elections.

Shiite political parties, mainly the Fatah Alliance, have rejected the results as manipulated and demanded recounts of all ballot boxes.

Their supporters have been protesting outside Baghdads fortified Green Zone, the home of key government offices, the Independent High Electoral Commission and foreign embassies.

Earlier this month the protests turned violent, leaving two militiamen killed and more than 100 protesters and security personnel wounded.

Days later, the countrys Prime Minister Mustafa Al Kadhimi survived an exploding drone assassination attempt.

Although investigations are continuing, Iran-backed Shiite militias stand accused of launching the attack on Mr Al Kadhimis residence.

Updated: November 23rd 2021, 6:03 PM

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US advises citizens against travel to Iraq due to security conditions, Covid-19 - The National

Today marks 48 years since the hijacking of KLM flight 861 from Amsterdam Schiphol (AMS) to Tokyo Haneda (HND). Flown by a Boeing 747-200, the flight had more than 250 people onboard at the time of the incident. Led by three passengers said to have been from the Arab Youth Organization for the Liberation of Palestine, the hijack happened over Iraq.

KLM flight 861 was a scheduled service that connected Amsterdam with Tokyo. In the early 1970s, the flight made several stops along the way, as was customary for long-haul routes of the time. The first of these took place at Athens International Airport (ATH) in Greece.

After touching down in the Greek capital, flight 861 had two more intermediate stops before it reached Tokyo. The first of these was at Beirut International Airport (BEY) in Lebanon. This was then followed by Indias Delhi Indira Gandhi International Airport (DEL).

48 years ago today, a three-year-old Boeing 747-200 registered as PH-BUA operated KLM flight 861. The aircraft was named Mississippi, and KLM flew it until October 1989. On November 25th, 1973, it took to the skies bound for Tokyo with 247 passengers and 17 crew members onboard. While the first two legs passed without incident, the third was different.

While cruising over Iraq on the third leg of the route, between Beirut and Delhi, KLM flight 861 took an alarming turn. It was at this point that three passengers hijacked the aircraft. ASN notes that the hijackers, who claimed to belong to the Arab Youth Organization for the Liberation of Palestine, first demanded that the plane would divert to Damascus, Syria.

They then asked that the flight could head back towards Europe, aiming to land in Nicosia, Cyprus. It was here that their intentions became clear, with the hijack being used as a vehicle to demand that seven Palestine prisoners could be released. However, with their demands unfulfilled at this point, the hijackers directed the plane to Tripoli, Libya.

With Libyan authorities unwilling to let the hijackers surrender on the condition of being let free, the plane then flew to Malta for another failed set of negotiations. This prompted them to alter the course back towards Iraq, where they demanded to be allowed to land in Baghdad. However, this was refused, and they faced similar rejection in Qatar and Kuwait.

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Following these rejected landings, the aircraft was eventually permitted to land in Dubai, UAE as it was running low on fuel. Negotiations failed here too, and the 747 took off again for Aden, Yemen, only for its landing there also to be rejected. This prompted it to return to Dubai, where the hijackers surrendered on the condition of being free to leave the country.

While hijackings can sometimes be violent occurrences, there were no fatalities among the flights 264 occupants. With the situation having been resolved largely peacefully, KLM continues to use the flight number KL861 today. It still applies to an Amsterdam-Tokyo service, although this non-stop Boeing 777/787-operated flight serves Tokyo Narita.

What do you make of this incident? Did you ever fly on one of KLMs Boeing 747s? Let us know your thoughts and experiences in the comments.

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48 Years Ago A KLM Boeing 747 Was Hijacked Over Iraq - Simple Flying