Mediaboss Marketing

Hillary Clintons loss in 2016 was at least partly attributable to the millions of Barack Obama voters who shifted their support to Donald Trump. Four years later, it is now Trump who must worry about losing some of his supporters in November: As many as one in 10 Trump voters is considering voting for somebody else in 2020, according to our analysis of data from the 2019 Cooperative Congressional Election Study survey.

These voters are individuals who neither strongly approve nor strongly disapprove of the job Trump is doing as president. If Democrats want to win over these voters, theyll have to choose their message wisely.

Why should campaigns focus on persuading these potential swing voters rather than turning out nonvoters? Swing voters might be rare but they do exist, and persuading them can be particularly influential for two reasons. First, switching a person from opposing your side to supporting it has a two-vote effect on the margin: It subtracts one vote from your opponent and adds one vote to your tally. Mobilizing an additional supporter to come out to vote has only half that impact.

Second, mobilizing people to vote when they havent done so before can be challenging. Even if Democrats can mobilize more nonvoters to get to the polls, it is not clear that this will help them in swing states like Wisconsin and Michigan, where many nonvoters fit the profile of Trumps base.

The dataset we used, a large academic election survey that YouGov has conducted online every year since 2006, allows us to better understand the share of 2016 Trump voters who are up for grabs. In November 2019, the survey interviewed 18,000 American adults who had been interviewed in 2016 about their vote, asking them how they planned to vote in 2020.

They found that most of Trumps voters plan to stick with him: Ninety percent of those who voted for Trump in 2016 say they plan to vote for him again. But 10 percent seem to be up for grabs. Four percent are already planning to vote for the Democratic candidate, and another 6 percent say that they are still undecided. By contrast, 94 percent of Clinton voters are already committed to the Democrats: just 2 percent of Clintons 2016 voters are planning to vote for Trump in 2020, with another 4 percent undecided.

The largest share of Trumps support in 2016 came from baby boomers, and only 7 percent of them are considering abandoning him in 2020. Trumps older supporters are quite loyal to him. Where Trump is losing the most support is among Americans younger than 40 who voted for him in 2016.

Younger voters are less certain, and as many as 20 percent of Trumps younger voters are considering abandoning him: 9 percent of the millennial and Gen Z voters who supported Trump in 2016 are now planning to vote Democratic in 2020, and another 11 percent say they are not sure how they will vote.

While the persuadable Trump voters are mostly distinguished by their age, they are also more likely to have college degrees and are more likely to be women when compared to the Trump base. They are also much more likely to identify as politically moderate.

Considering that Trump only received about one-third of the vote among millennial and Gen Z voters in 2016, the fact that these voters are at least considering voting for a Democrat in 2020 is important. This erosion of support among younger Republicans continues a trend that has been taking hold since 2016, when many young Mitt Romney voters decided not to vote for Trump. This low support could sink even lower, chipping at the narrow margins we typically see in elections.

But just because these Trump voters say they are persuadable now does not mean that Democrats will necessarily win them over. After all, the fact that these voters supported Trump in the first place means they are likely more ideologically conservative than the typical Democratic voter.

The graph below shows how the 2016 Trump voters who are now unsure of how theyll vote in 2020 compare to the Trump base (those who already say theyll back him again in 2020), the Democratic base (Clinton voters who already plan to vote for the Democrat in November), and Trump voters who have already decided to vote for the Democrat.

On several issues, the persuadable Trump voters do appear to have views that fit well with the Democratic agenda. For example, about two-thirds of persuadable Trump voters want a ban on discrimination based on sexual identity and oppose Trumps decision to leave the Paris climate agreement, putting them at odds with the voters in Trumps base.

On health care, persuadable Trump voters are to the left of Trumps base but less liberal than some of the most progressive Democrats in the field. Fewer than half support Sen. Bernie Sanderss single-payer Medicare-for-all approach, which would ban private health insurance, but more than 70 percent support a public option for health insurance that would still allow people the option to keep their private insurance.

On immigration, persuadable Trump voters appear to support the trade-off that used to be the base of comprehensive immigration reform proposals: increasing border security while giving undocumented immigrants already in the US a path to citizenship.

Breaking with Trumps dedicated voters, this group overwhelmingly supports granting legal status to undocumented immigrants who have held jobs and paid taxes for at least three years. But theyre closer to the viewpoint of the Trump base when it comes to border security, with just 13 percent opposing an increase in the number of patrols on the US-Mexico border. A slight majority 55 percent of the Democratic base would oppose increasing border security.

Finally, the persuadable Trump voters are not quite as convinced as the Democratic base when it comes to increasing the minimum wage to $15 per hour. While this policy is supported by the vast majority of core Democratic voters, only about 50 percent of the persuadable Trump voters are on board.

Of course, the 2020 election can turn on any number of factors, including the likability of the candidates, the potential impact (economic or otherwise) of the coronavirus, and how these persuadable voters evaluate Trumps first term. But to maximize their chances of winning over the persuadable Trump voters, Democrats should focus on issues that appeal to their base like climate change and LGBTQ rights, while favoring more moderate solutions on issues like health care and immigration.

There may be other paths to defeating Trump, including mobilizing progressives who dont usually vote. But if the strategy is to win over persuadable Trump voters, then a moderate nominee like Joe Biden likely has a better chance at appealing to this small but pivotal group who are not only important in 2020 but will also shape election outcomes for many years to come.

Brian Schaffner is the Newhouse Professor of Civic Studies at Tufts University. Laurel Bliss is a research associate at Tufts.

More here:
Swing voters could sway the 2020 election - Vox.com

Published Mar 12, 2020 at 8:00 am(Updated Mar 12, 2020 at 7:59 am)

Meeting place: There will be a meeting at the town hall tonight about immigration legislation (File photograph)

A town hall meeting will take place today to discuss new immigration legislation tabled in the House of Assembly.

People are invited to CedarBridge Academy for the meeting about amendments to the Bermuda Immigration and Protection Act.

National security minister Wayne Caines said the proposed intentions of the Bill would be detailed line by line, page by page.

The legislation, tabled by Mr Caines last Friday and scheduled for debate tomorrow, aims to solve the problems of mixed-status families and settle the status of children born overseas to Bermudian parents.

Further reform is planned that will also affect permanent residents certificates and Bermudian status, belongers, such as naturalised British Overseas Territories citizens and the spouses of Bermudians, and the status of job-makers.

Mr Caines told the House last Friday that the Government was committed to ensuring comprehensive immigration reform.

He said that progress requires time, resources, collaboration with stakeholders and strong leadership on this issue.

The meeting takes place in the schools cafeteria from 6pm to 8pm

Originally posted here:
Town hall meeting on immigration Bill - Royal Gazette

A large majority of Hispanic voters in battleground districts are "almost certain" to turn out to vote in November, according to research conducted for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) and the Congressional Hispanic Caucus's (CHC) campaign arm, Bold PAC.

According to the research, 78 percent of Hispanic registered voters are "almost certain" to vote and 48 percent are "extremely enthusiastic."Pollstersalso noted that "with an average enthusiasm rating of 7.83 out of 10, there are still opportunities to further generate voter enthusiasm."

Latino Decisions polled Hispanic registered voters in battleground districts in Arizona, California, Florida, Nevada, New Mexico and Texasand presented its finding in an internal memo reviewed by The Hill.

The stakes of Novembers elections are high and we are not taking anything or anyone for granted. Thats why the DCCC is building on our partnership with BOLD PAC to make aggressive investments to engage and earn the support of Latino voters in communities across the country, said DCCC Chairwoman Cheri BustosCheryl (Cheri) Lea BustosAnnual Congressional Dinner pushed back to June amid coronavirus concerns Internal Democratic research shows Hispanics energized to vote in November McCarthy blasts Democrats' campaign arm for ads against Republicans on coronavirus response MORE (Ill.) in a statement.

The memo shows Hispanic voters in those battleground districts are responsive to issues that Democrats traditionally emphasize, particularly health care.

Affordable, quality health care has consistently polled as a top issue for Hispanic voters.

According to the memo, "health care is the single most mobilizing message" for Latinos, who said they are equally likely to favor expansion of the Affordable Care Act or creating new plans to expand coverage.

And 65 percent of Hispanic voters see President TrumpDonald John TrumpTrump faces toughest crisis of presidency in coronavirus House passes bill to help prop up economy from coronavirus White House physician: Trump doesn't require test after exposure to 2 people with coronavirus MORE's tax cuts as having mainly benefited the wealthy and corporations, according to the research, somewhat undercuttinghis economic message toward Latinos.

In 2018, Democrats overwhelmingly won Hispanic voters with record midterm turnout, in part by painting the 2017 tax cuts as benefiting only the rich.In that election, Democrats also promoted the message that Republicans are "hostile" toward Latinos, citing the administration's policies and rhetoric on immigration.

We cannot expect people to turn out if we do not put in the time to listen to them and address their top priorities. Our research investments will ensure that Latino voters are both heard and reflected in our strategy to protect and expand the most diverse House Majority in our nations history, said Bustos.

That message is likely to resonate again in 2020, according to the memo, which says "the Washington Republican brand is badly damaged in the eyes of Latino voters," but cautions there is still space for Democrats to actively engage Latino voters.

Rep. Veronica EscobarVeronica EscobarInternal Democratic research shows Hispanics energized to vote in November Trump to deploy 160 troops to border following court rulings Polls show big bounce to Biden ahead of Super Tuesday MORE (D-Texas) applauded the report, saying that investments in Hispanic voter research could help Democrats hold on to their House majority.

The road to ensuring we protect and expand our House majority will run through Latino voters and we must give them a reason to vote for us. Democrats presence on the ground is helping bolster the important work of a number of grassroots organizations and leaders who have long been engaging with the Latino community. This investment is vital to changing the electorate and flipping swing districts in Texas and across the country, said Escobar, who represents the freshman class in leadership.

The report found Trump's approval ratings among Latinos vary geographically, but overall 65 percent of Hispanics disapprove of the president while 35 percent approve. Among Nevada Hispanic voters, for example, Trump scored better with only a 56 percent disapproval rate, while that rate is 63 percent in Texas and 73 percent in Arizona.

The research also found that Latino voters are open to multiple messages on immigration reform, including a comprehensive immigration reform package.

The road to retaining and expanding our Democratic majority runs through the Latino community. Thats why CHC Bold PAC is proud to once again partner with the DCCC to conduct critical research on our nation's growing and diverse Latino community in key battleground states like Florida, Arizona, and Texas, saidBold PAC Chairman Rep. Tony Crdenas (D-Calif).

By making these investments on Latino voters early, Democrats are taking important steps to mobilize Latinos across the country and get them to the polls this November, he added.

The memo concluded that Democrats should focus on health care, immigration and the economy to keep Hispanic voters incentivized to vote.

"To generate further enthusiasm from Latino voters, candidates must be relatable to the working class, culturally competent, and use their presence to show Latinos that they care about the community," reads the memo.

Latino Decisions is a Democratic polling firm that specializes in researching Hispanic voter intent. The firm recently conducted polls that accurately predicted record Hispanic turnout in early primary and caucus states.

Visit link:
Internal Democratic research shows Hispanics energized to vote in November | TheHill - The Hill

Rep. Mark Meadows, once a House member bucking his partys leadership and pushing the limits of conservatism on Capitol Hill, will join the new vanguard of the Republican Party as President Trumps chief of staff.

Mr. Trump tapped the retiring North Carolina Republican last week to join his administration, the latest development in their unwavering alliance over the past few years.

This nobody from nowhere has lived the American dream on the political sense, where you have influence but only because of the people, Mr. Meadows recently told The Washington Times Tim Constantine. Its their power; its not mine.

He often describes his rise in politics and in business as a journey from humble if not poor beginnings.

Mr. Meadows, 60, grew up in Florida and once described himself in an interview with The Tampa Bay Times as a fat nerd when he was in school.

He went on to spend nearly 30 years creating and running small businesses before he was elected to Congress in 2012.

In the 1980s, he opened a sandwich shop called Aunt Ds after moving to North Carolina.

He later sold the shop and turned to real estate, first opening a development company called Meadows Mountain Realty, which he later sold, and then Highlands Properties.

He and his wife, Debbie, have two sons and a granddaughter.

In 2014, he was one of the co-founders of the conservative House Freedom Caucus, which he headed from 2017 to 2019.

The group of tea-party-style hard-liners has a reputation for rebelling against House Republican leadership and occasionally the president.

Under Mr. Meadows, the Freedom Caucus posed a challenge to Republican leaders when the party had the majority, fracturing the party when moderate Republicans were willing to make deals on spending or immigration reform. In 2015, he was one of the leading lawmakers calling for then-House Speaker John A. Boehners ouster as head of the chamber.

However, with Republicans in the minority since last year, the conference has unified, particularly when it comes to defending Mr. Trump and Republican policies.

Mr. Meadows has been at the forefront of that effort, particularly during the impeachment proceedings. He was a constant presence during the 12 weeks of closed-door depositions, sitting on the sidelines during the public hearings, and was a member of the presidents defense team during the trial.

Mark Meadows is smart, loyal, a true patriot. Hes a good man and my best friend, Rep. Jim Jordan of Ohio, fellow Freedom Caucus co-founder, tweeted after Trumps announcement. Couldnt have picked anyone better for the job.

Mark Meadows has been a strong advocate for the president [and] the America First agenda from the start. Congrats, Mark! tweeted Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy of California.

In December, the four-term congressman announced he was retiring from Congress, reviving longtime speculation that he was under consideration to serve in the administration.

In that way, his elevation to a top White House post seemed as inevitable as it was unlikely.

This president and his administration have a long list of incredible victories theyve delivered to the country during this first term, with the best yet to come and I look forward to helping build on that success and staying in the fight for the forgotten men and women of America, Mr. Meadows said when accepting the job. In particular, I want to recognize my friend Mick Mulvaney. Mick is smart, principled, and as tough a fighter youll find in Washington, D.C. He did a great job leading the presidents team through a tremendous period of accomplishment over the last year-plus.

Still, serving as the presidents right-hand man is a much more fickle position than representing the consistently Republican voters of his North Carolina district.

Mr. Meadows will be Mr. Trumps fourth chief of staff in that many years. The first, Reince Priebus, lasted only 192 days. John F. Kelly, the second chief of staff, lasted much longer but left the administration in December 2018 not on good terms.

Mick Mulvaney, a former Freedom Caucus member, is the acting chief of staff. He will become the U.S. special envoy for Northern Ireland.

Where Mr. Meadows was a reliable support for the president throughout the impeachment process, Mr. Mulvaney found himself in hot water after he linked military aid for Ukraine to investigations into the presidents political rivals fueling Democrats impeachment case.

While Mr. Meadows will be a new face in the Oval Office, Democrats are not optimistic their former colleague will be able to mend the tense relationship between the Trump White House and the House of Representatives.

The big problem at 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. is President Donald John Trump. And until we change that situation, nothing is likely to change, Democratic Caucus Chairman Hakeem Jeffries of New York told The Washington Times.

Mr. Meadows will be starting in his position soon, though the timing is not exactly clear the incoming chief of staff just finished a self-quarantine, which he started Monday after coming into contact with someone who was infected with the new coronavirus at the Conservative Political Action Conference last month.

Read the original here:
Mark Meadows' journey from 'fat nerd' to Trump chief of staff - Washington Times

Kevin Euceda, a 17-year-old Honduran boy, arrived at the U.S.-Mexico border three years ago and was turned over to the custody of the Department of Health and Human Services until his request for asylum could be decided by immigration courts. During that interim period, he was required, as are all unaccompanied minors in custody, to meet with therapists to help him process what he had gone through.

In those sessions, Kevin was encouraged to speak freely and openly and was told that what he said would be kept confidential. So he poured out his story of a brutalized childhood, of how MS-13 gang members moved into the family shack after his grandmother died when he was 12, of how he was forced to run errands, sell drugs and, as he got older, take part in beating people up. When he was ordered to kill a stranger to cement his position in the gang, Kevin decided to run.

His therapists submitted pages of notes over several sessions to the file on him, as they were expected to do. But then, HHS officials without the knowledge of the teen or the therapists shared the notes with lawyers for Immigration and Customs Enforcement, who used them in immigration court to paint the young migrant as a dangerous gang member who should be denied asylum and sent back to Honduras. In sharing those therapy notes, the government did not break any laws. But it most assuredly broke its promise of confidentiality to Kevin, violated standard professional practices the first therapist involved quit once she learned her notes had been shared and offended a fundamental expectation that people cannot be compelled to testify against themselves in this country.

Kevin, whose story was detailed by the Washington Post, wasnt the only unaccompanied minor to fall victim to the governments atrocious behavior, though how many have been affected is unknown. The government says it has changed that policy and no longer shares confidential therapy notes, but thats not particularly reassuring coming from this administration. It adopted the policy once, it could easily do so again.

Last week, Rep. Grace F. Napolitano (D-Norwalk) and Sen. Jeff Merkley (D-Ore.) introduced the Immigrants Mental Health Act of 2020 to ban the practice, which is a necessary preventive measure. The bill would also create a new training regimen to help border agents address mental health issues among migrants and require at least one mental health expert at each Customs and Border Patrol facility. Both of those steps are worth considering too.

That the government would so callously use statements elicited from unaccompanied minors in therapy sessions to undercut their asylum applications is part of the Trump administrations broad and inhumane efforts to effectively shut off the United States as a destination for people seeking to exercise their right to ask for sanctuary. Jeff Sessions and his successor as attorney general, William Barr, have injected themselves into cases at an unprecedented rate to unilaterally change long-established practices and immigration court precedent.

They have been able to do so because immigration courts are administrative and part of the Justice Department, not the federal court system, and as a result they have politicized what should be independent judicial evaluations of asylum applications and other immigration cases.

There are legitimate policy discussions to be had over how this government should handle immigration, asylum requests and broad comprehensive immigration reform. In the meantime, no government has the right to treat people with such abject inhumanity. History will remember Trump for this, but it will also remember the people who enable such atrocious acts.

Read the rest here:
Another View: Our government is using migrants' therapy against them - Marshall News Messenger