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Hillary Clinton returns to Iowa. Is that Joe Biden behind her?

Washington Hillary Clinton returns to Iowa this weekend. She (and husband Bill) will speak Sunday at the Harkin Steak Fry, Sen. Tom Harkins annual festival of Democratic politics and grilled protein. This years Steak Fry is the 37th , and last Senator Harkin is retiring. Its also the first time Clinton has returned to the Hawkeye State since losing the Iowa caucuses in January 2008.

Remember? It was a brutal start for Clintons presidential campaign. She finished third, behind Barack Obama and John Edwards. Yes, that John Edwards.

Will her Steak Fry speech serve as an unofficial campaign kickoff? Thats what much of the D.C. punditocracy believes. That doesnt mean shell be more forthcoming about her plans shes said she wont announce an official candidacy until early 2015. What it does mean is its about time she begins honing a stump speech intended to appeal to Democrats in Iowa and beyond. Anything less will be seen as a sign that maybe shes thinking about not running, after all.

I dont want to be in a position of piling it on. This is a decision she has to make, said Harkin on Friday, according to the Associated Press. She knows how much I care about her and Bill.

A 2016 Hillary campaign promises to have a different finish in Iowa than her 2008 version. Early polls show the former secretary of State way ahead both nationally and in-state. A CNN/ORC poll released Friday shows Clinton as the choice of 53 percent of Iowa Democratic voters. Fifteen percent would opt for Vice President Joe Biden, with seven percent going for Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts.

These numbers reflect national polls that show Clinton the overwhelming choice of Democrats. In terms of winning her partys candidacy, shes perhaps the most heavily favored nonincumbent presidential candidate in modern times.

But that hasnt stopped potential rivals from making their own Iowa travel plans. Vice President Joe Biden will show up next Wednesday. Hes scheduled to appear in Des Moines to kick off a We the People, We the Voters bus tour.

Then theres Maryland Gov. Martin OMalley. According to a report in The Daily Beast, hes dispatched 11 staffers paid by his OSay Can You See PAC to Iowa to work in various Democrats fall campaigns.

The staffers OMalley has placed will give him a head start if he chooses to run for president, writes the Beasts Ben Jacobs. They will be able to identify potential supporters far in advance, as well as build lists of volunteers key to the grassroots organizing necessary in the Iowa caucuses.

If he runs, OMalley will need all the help he can get to build name recognition. Right now the CNN/ORC poll shows him with two percent of the Iowa Democratic vote a whopping 51 points behind Clinton.

September 12th, 2014

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The Fix: Hillary Clinton is going to Iowa this weekend. How she acts will be telling.

Let's get one thing out of the way: Hillary Clinton is a massive favorite to win the Iowa caucuses -- and the Democratic presidential nomination -- in 2016. (If she runs, of course, which everyone now assumes she will.) Just in case you aren't hip to that reality, CNN and the Opinion Research Corporation released a poll on Friday that made it crystal clear; Clinton led the 2016 field in Iowa with 53 percent followed by Vice President Joe Biden at 15 percent. No one else even got into double digits.

So, when Clinton stops in Iowa for the first time in six years this Sunday -- she and her husband are headlining Sen. Tom Harkin's final Steak Fry -- she will be greeted like a hero. But, it's worth remembering Clinton's problems in Iowa in 2008 when analyzing the approach she takes to all of that adoration.

Clinton finished third in the 2008 Iowa caucuses -- John Edwards narrowly edged her out for second. There were lots and lots of reasons given for her struggles in the state up to and including:

* The Clinton machine wasn't strong in Iowa since Bill Clinton didn't seriously compete in the state in 1992 (native son Harkin made the race non-competitive) and was unchallenged for the Democratic nomination in 1996.

* Clinton was out of step -- particularly on the war in Iraq -- with the liberal activists that comprise the bulk of the caucus vote. Both Obama and Edwards were significantly more outspoken in their opposition to the war than Clinton.

* Clinton fundamentally misunderstood the Iowa electorate. She ran a Rose Garden campaign when Iowa voters wanted her to drop the big entourage and simply talk to them one on one.

It's that last criticism that may be most telling as it relates to 2016. Clinton and former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani were the two most famous candidates in the 2008 race. Both came to Iowa wearing that fame -- cocooned off from average folks, defaulting to larger rallies rather than the hand to hand work that has, traditionally, been rewarded by Iowa voters.

Giuliani quickly realized Iowa wasn't for him, skipping the state to spend more time in New Hampshire. (Giuliani eventually scrapped that strategy too; making Florida his firewall. It became his Waterloo.) Clinton stayed; she had no choice since the frontrunner for the nomination can't pick and choose which states to seriously contest.

The exit poll conducted after Clinton's third place finish in Iowa speaks to the problem she had connecting with the electorate on any level other than celebrity-to-supplicant. One in five Iowa Democratic caucus-goers said that a candidate who "cares about people like me" was the most important characteristic in making their choice. Edwards got 44 percent among that group -- double Clinton's 22 percent. (Obama took 24 percent.) By contrast, among the 20 percent of caucus-goers who said a candidate with the "right experience" to be president was most important to them, Clinton lapped the competition by winning almost half of their votes.

The takeaway from the 2008 exit poll is this: No one doubted Clinton's competence. They doubted her compassion. She was always "Hillary Clinton" and never Hillary Clinton. It seems more than coincidental that when, in the runup to the New Hampshire primary, Clinton let more of her "real self" show, her polls numbers improved drastically.

September 12th, 2014

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Clinton tops Iowa poll

By Dan Merica, CNN

updated 4:08 PM EDT, Fri September 12, 2014

Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee speaks at an anti-abortion rally in Washington in January 2012.

STORY HIGHLIGHTS

Washington (CNN) -- Hillary Clinton is heading to Iowa as the politician that most Democrats would choose as their 2016 presidential nominee.

According to a new CNN/ORC International poll, 53% of all registered Democrats contacted in Iowa said they would support Hillary Clinton if the 2016 caucuses were held today. That number far outpaces the 15% that would opt for Vice President Joe Biden, 7% who would choose Sen. Elizabeth Warren and 5% who would pick Sen. Bernie Sanders.

Clinton will be visiting Iowa for the first time in six years on Sunday when she headlines the last Harkin Steak Fry. Biden, likewise, will be in the state Wednesday to speak at a liberal Catholic event in Des Moines.

Although Clinton tops Biden with men and women, there is a noticeable gender split between the two politicians. Sixty-three percent of women favor Clinton, compared with Biden's 10%. With men, however, Biden is drawing 21% support -- a number more than twice his support among women.

Hillary Clinton to decide on 2016 around end of year

On the Republican side, Mike Huckabee nearly laps the field with 21% of all registered Republicans contacted in the poll saying they would support the former Arkansas governor if the 2016 Iowa caucuses were held today.

Continued here:
Clinton tops Iowa poll

September 12th, 2014

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Hillary Clinton is going to Iowa this weekend. How she acts will be telling.