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Welcome to Poll Watch, our weekly look at polling data and survey research on the candidates, voters and issues that will shape the 2020 election.

If the presidential election were held today, polls in crucial swing states like Florida, Michigan and Pennsylvania suggest that Joseph R. Biden Jr. would be in position for a narrow victory.

The disquieting news for Democrats is that at the same point in 2016, Hillary Clinton was in a better position.

Some Americans have lost faith in President Trumps handling of the coronavirus crisis, but the countrys deeply entrenched partisan divide has prevented the president from losing more than a few percentage points on his overall approval rating.

Besides, the Electoral College has a meaningful Republican tilt, and those who turn out to vote tend to be slightly more conservative than the general population. Add to that Republicans efforts to limit access to voting among predominantly Democratic populations, and Mr. Trump might well become the first president in history to win twofull terms without once winning a plurality of the popular vote.

State polls proved problematic during the 2016 presidential race that much is well known. But with no guarantee that a repeat wont occur this year, it bears noting that Mrs. Clinton was considerably further ahead of Mr. Trump in many swing state polls in spring 2016 than Mr. Biden is now.

So far the golden rule of Mr. Trumps presidency that his approval ratings shall not budge more than a few percentage points has held true throughout the coronavirus pandemic. Since the start of this year, his ratings have wavered but never left the mid- to high 40s.

That carries over into perceptions of how Mr. Trump has dealt with the coronavirus specifically. And, importantly, it holds true in swing states.

A University of New Hampshire poll released this week had encouraging news for Mr. Trump. While his overall virus approval rating in that state remained underwater, independents approval jumped in the past month by 21 percentage points, showing that his message inconsistent though it may be is still persuasive for some key voters.

Surveys released this week of Florida, Michigan and Pennsylvania found approval of his handling of the pandemic varying from 44 percent to 46 percent of registered voters in those states, reflective of the national average.

These new state polls show that even in places where Mr. Trump has clashed with popular Democratic governors, Mr. Biden will not be able to lean on support for state-level Democrats in his fight against the president.

In Fox News polls of Michigan and Pennsylvania, well over three in five voters approved of their Democratic governors job performance, including large majorities of independents and moderates. But in each case, that was far more than those who said they would vote for Mr. Biden in November.

And votersappear to see their governoras separate from their vote in the presidential election. In a hypothetical matchup against Mr. Trump, Mr. Biden didnt do markedly better when Michigan voters were asked about a hypothetical ticket that included their governor, Gretchen Whitmer, as his running mate. In each case, 49 percent said they would vote for Mr. Bidenover Mr. Trump.

A Quinnipiac University poll of Florida released on Wednesday showed Mr. Biden with a slight edge among registered voters, but that spread of four percentage points was within the margin of error. Mr. Biden has fallen since June, when he led Mr. Trump, 50 percent to 41 percent.

Bidens victorious campaign for the Democratic nomination has done little to put wind in the former vice presidents sails, but ratherhas left him in a slightly worse position in a matchup against Mr. Trump than when he began. And with the pandemic keeping Mr. Biden holed up in Delaware, he has struggled to command a bully pulpit since becoming the Democrats presumptive nominee.

Mr. Bidens favorability rating is now just 43 percent among registered voters in Florida, down from 49 percent in a Quinnipiac poll of the state a year ago. His plus-3 net favorability rating there is now within the margin of error. Still, 14 percent of Floridians havent made up their mind about him, meaning he has far more room to grow than does Mr. Trump, whose net rating is minus-7.

Hispanic voters play an important role in Florida, and in this demographic Mr. Biden looks anemic. He lost the Hispanic vote to Senator Bernie Sanders in many primaries and caucuses this year, and the new Quinnipiac poll of Florida shows him leading Mr. Trump by just eight percentage points among Hispanic voters, 46 percent to 38 percent. In 2016, both pre-election surveys and exit polls showed Mrs. Clinton leading Mr. Trump by three times as many percentage points among Hispanic voters in Florida.

Among black voters there, too, Mr. Biden shows signs of surprising weakness. Twelve percent said they did not yet know whom they would support, a higher rate of uncertainty than in other demographics.

Young people are a demographic in which Mr. Biden badly underperforms compared with most recent Democratic presidential nominees.

In Florida, voters under 35 are actually more likely to see Mr. Biden unfavorably than to hold a positive view of him. But 27 percent say they dont know enough to feel one way or the other, so he has room to improve.

He leads Mr. Trump by just nine percentage points among Florida voters under 35, a relatively weak edge compared with Mrs. Clintons lead of 22 percentage points among this group in a Quinnipiac poll at this point in 2016.

Among millennials in Michigan, Mr. Biden squeaks by with just a 50 percent to 45 percent favorability rating, according to the Fox News poll. He leads Mr. Trump by just eight percentage points among millennials in a head-to-head matchup.

Mr. Biden tends to make up for his relatively weak leads among millennials and Hispanic voters with his strength among those 65 and older. Compared with Mrs. Clintons 2016 totals, polls suggest Mr. Biden has made the most gains among the oldest voters.

These voters have largely been unimpressed with Mr. Trumps handling of the coronavirus crisis, and they will be particularly crucial if Mr. Biden expects to win Florida, which has trended Republican over the past 10 years. Those 65 and over broke for Mr. Trump by 17 percentage points in 2016.

In the Fox polls of Michigan and Pennsylvania, and the Quinnipiac poll of Florida, the oldest voters were consistently the most likely to say that their states should err on the side of keeping their economies closed out of a concern for safety a stance that Mr. Trump has been reluctant to embrace.

In Florida, Gov. Ron DeSantis, a Republican, resisted calls for weeks to put in place a statewide stay-at-home order, and his handling of the crisis has drawn some of the lowest approval ratings of any governor in the country.

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Latest Polls: Biden Leads Trump in Key States. But Clinton Led by More. - The New York Times

The FBI's top lawyer was torn over what to do when FBI Director James Comey asked in 2016 whether he should inform Congress that the bureau was reopening the investigation into Hillary Clintons emails.

FBI General Counsel James Baker had been told that FBI agents discovered between 600,000 and 1 million emails on disgraced former Rep. Anthony Weiners laptop relating to Clinton. The 2016 Democratic presidential nominees top aide, Huma Abedin, was married to Weiner, who was being investigated for sending illicit texts to an underage girl.

Baker, who left the FBI in May 2018, told author David Rohde that he felt like the fates had thrown him a hundred-mile-an-hour fastball.

Baker believed it was likely that the FBI could find new evidence of wrongdoing by Clinton, Rohde wrote in his recently released book, In Deep: The FBI, the CIA, and the Truth about Americas Deep State.

She wins the election, we go to DOJ, and we recommend that they indict her before she becomes president, Baker said, describing his nightmare scenario. Thats not a good place for the country. Thats not a good place for the FBI.

Baker also worried that the bureaus credibility would be damaged if Comey did not inform Congress.

I thought, What is best for the law enforcement and judicial system? he said. I said, 'I thought the director had an obligation to notify Congress.' Director Comey agreed with my advice.

Comey told Congress of the new findings less than two weeks before the 2016 election, sending letters to the chairmen and chairwomen and ranking members of the eight committees that investigated Clintons use of a private email server while she was secretary of state.

The FBI conducted a criminal investigation during the 2016 election into Clintons use of the server. In July 2016, Comey, who was later fired by President Trump, publicly recommended that no charges be brought against Clinton, but he chastised her and her team for being "extremely careless" in handling classified information.

The FBI reopened the case 11 days before the election only to close it again days before voters went to the polls. Clinton has argued Comeys handling of the investigation was one of the reasons she lost to Trump.

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Former top FBI lawyer worried Hillary Clinton would be indicted after winning election - Washington Examiner

Bidders this week will get the chance to drink coffee with Hillary Clinton, sing with Sting, or perform Shakespeare with Patrick Stewart virtually.

These and other prizes will be offered in an online auction to support the International Rescue Committee and its efforts to help refugees and others battle the coronavirus pandemic.

Sothebys auction house and Google are sponsoring the auction to raise funds for the nongovernmental organization run by former British Foreign Secretary David Miliband.

As a global community, we are only as strong as the weakest link in the chain, and millions of refugees and displaced people are now facing a double emergency with the virus reaching their communities, Miliband said.

Participants can also bid on a tea with former U.S. Secretary of State Madeline Albright, a conversation with comic actor Sasha Baron Cohen and a virtual tour of Highclere Castle, where the Downtown Abbey television series was filmed. Stars Hugh Bonneville and Elizabeth McGovern will be the personal tour guides.

The online auction runs May 1 through May 8.

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Coffee with Clinton and Singing with Sting Part of Charity Auction - Voice of America

RYLAN Clark-Neal has claimed that Hillary Clinton once offered him a job, but he turned her down.

Rylan, 31,dropped the bombshell during a chat with comic Katherine Ryan on his BBC Radio 2 programme as he spilled all the beans.

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Explaining the offer was made during his time working on ITV show This Morning, the former X Factor contestant said: "You know Hillary Clinton actually offered me a job once... As in, like, genuinely."

He continued: "It was was when I worked on This Morning, we used to do this thing called The Hub, which is where I was just off the side of the set with a big screen doing viewer comments and I called her Hills babe, and then everyone went mad because they were like, 'This could be the next president'.

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"Anyway, we had a lovely chat and she was like, 'I'd love you to be my personal aide'. So if it all goes wrong, I swear!"

Hillary, 72, served as First Lady of the United States from 1993 to 2001, as a United States senator from New York from 2001 to 2009, and as the 67th United States secretary of state from 2009 until 2013.

She became the first woman to be nominated for president of the United States by a major political party when she won the Democratic Party nomination in 2016.

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She was also the first woman to win the popular vote in an American presidential election, which she lost to Donald Trump.

Rylan said he would take up the opportunity if he swore on daytime TV and lost all of his lucrative presenting gigs.

The former Big Brother star said: "I didn't, but I did say to her - and I won't say the exact words I said to her because it's not BBC Radio 2 friendly - I said, 'Hillary, if I say a certain swear word on daytime TV and lose all my jobs, I'll give you a ring'."

However, it doesn't look like Rylan will be desperate for work any time soon.

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Since leaving This Morning in 2017, Rylan has occasionally returned as a stand-in presenter and once hosted the show with his husband Dan.

As well as hosting Ready Steady Cook, Strictly spin-off It Takes Two and occasionally sitting in on Zoe Balls Radio 2 breakfast show, last month it was revealed Rylan has filmed a pilot for a primetime series called The Squeeze.

The show will see the reality favourite-turned-presenter put contestants through their paces with a mixture of tough questions and physical challenges.

TRUMPEDThis Morning fans in hysterics as Holly Willoughby makes fart noise during yoga

baby walkerLauryn Goodman gives birth to England star Kyle Walker's 'miracle' baby

Spoiler

court dramaCorrie cast arrive to film court scenes as Yasmeen is accused of killing Geoff

pretty in pinkJesy Nelson shows off her figure in plunging dress after Chris Hughes split

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TIME'S UPCorrie's Alya exposes Geoff's abuse to his daughter-in-law Sally

trick or treatKatie Price shares sweet clip of Harvey insisting carrot cake is a vegetable

Speaking at the Arias radio awards in London in March, Rylan said: "Ive just flown back from Scotland after filming it and it went really, really well. Its very early days."

A telly source added to The Sun: "Beeb bosses trialled the show a few years ago but they didnt find the right personality to carry it.

"Now they know larger-than-life Rylan is perfect. Producers think hes just the guy for the show."

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Rylan Clark-Neal claims Hillary Clinton wanted him to be her personal aide but he turned her down - The Sun

Hillary Clinton has been involved in scandals before.Here are some notable ones you may have forgotten.

Chinagate - The Clinton-Gore campaign in 1996 allegedly took bribes from Chinese banks and their government to help their dwindling poll numbers. The Chinese embassy in D.C. helped siphon funds into the DNC. Secretary of Commerce Ron Brown (who was killed in a plane crash), andat Hillarys instruction reportedly sold seats on department trade missions to China. Joint congressional hearings were canceled after Democrats threatened to bring up Republican campaign issues and then Monica Lewinsky actually saved this scandal from media attention.

Travelgate Scandal - Catherine Cornelius, a 25-year-old cousin of Bill's was allegedly promised the position of director of the travel office. Hillary Clinton then (indirectly) fired seven employees from the United States travel office and replaced them with associates from Arkansas. Records were either nowhere to be found or incorrectly filed. And, there's a reported attempt to give a White House airline contract to friend.Hillary had the FBI investigate Billy Dale, the head of the travel office, ruining his career who was found to do nothing wrong, but was then audited by the IRS for three years after.

"Billy Dale and his family went through hell thanks to the Clintons, Attorney General Janet Reno, the FBI and the IRS," Irvine wrote. "Hillary's greatest crime was not perjury, it was trying to send an innocent man to prison to justify having fired him and his staff without cause."

A memorandum by a former Presidential aide depicts Hillary Rodham Clinton as the central figure in the 1993 travel office dismissals, a politically damaging episode that the aide said had resulted from a climate of fear in which officials did not dare question Mrs. Clinton's wishes,"wrote the NYT in 1996.

Whitewater Scandal - Hillary and her husband were partners in a shady real estate development firm called Whitewater Development Corp in Arkansas. Accusations of impropriety against the Clintons and others soon surfaced, regarding improper campaign contributions, political and financial favors, and tax benefits. Clintons friends and majority owners, James and Susan McDougal were jailed for fraud, Clinton's successor, Governor Jim Tucker, was jailed for fraud along with municipal judges David Hale and Eugene Fitzhugh who worked with James McDougal. The Clintons walked away unscathed, having apparently done nothing wrong.

SeeWhitewater Timeline.

Vince FosterJr. Mystery - Questions cloud the suicide of Vince Foster, former colleague, friend, and White House aid of Hillarys who hadconnections to Travelgate, and the Whitewater scandals. Read the link above entitled "The Man Who Knew too Much. . ."

Filegate Scandal - Craig Livingstone, director of the White House's Office of Personnel Security "improperly" accessedFBI files on several hundred individuals.

Mrs. Clinton called it a,"completely honest bureaucratic snafu."

Many of these files were on people from previous Republican administrations. Hillary Clinton hired Livingston and is alleged to have looked at the files and requested this move. She was accused by Republicans of violating privacy rights of individuals she viewed as political adversaries.

Cattle-Futures Miracle - Hillarys first commodity trade was in cattle futures where sheordered 10 futures contracts which normally cost $12,000 dollars with only $1,000 dollars in her account. This turned into $6,300 dollars by the next morning and after 10 months totaled $100,000, with trading help from James B. Blair.

Blair, who at the time was outside counsel to Tyson Foods Inc., Arkansas' largest employer, says he was advising Clinton out of friendship, not to seek political gain. . ." reports TheWashingtonPost.

Robert L. "Red" Bone ran the Springdale, AK financial services company REFCO allowed the trades and later, after investigation, had to pay the largest fine at the time in the exchanges history andwas suspended for three years. Hillary Clinton said she was able to make the successful trading because she read the Wall Street Journal for research.

Lootergate - Bill and especially Hillary started to ship White House furniture to their personal home in Chappaqua, N.Y.. The Clintons claimed they were donated, but at only some were proven to be donated and meant to stay in the White House after contacting the manufacturers. The Clintons returned some of the furniture after pressure was put on them to do so.

GOP lawmakers and others criticized Hillary Rodham Clinton in particular for accepting many presents just before she joined the Senate and became covered by strict ethics rules that prohibit accepting gifts worth more than $50.

Drug Dealer Donor Scandal - Convicted drug trafficker Jorge Cabrera apparently made such a big donation to the Clintons campaign that he was invited to the White house without Secret Service present.

Ponzi Scheme and Political Favor Scandal - Norman Yung Yuen Hsu was a convicted pyramid investment promoter, and major Democratic donor.He contributed an undisclosed amount to Hillary Clintons 2008 campaign.

He was sentenced to more than 24 years in prison in 2009 by a judge who accused him of funding his fraud by manipulating the political process in a way that 'strikes at the very core of our democracy.

Benghazi - Just watch this

Here is an article posted in the New York Times in 1996 entitled Blizzard of Lies about Hillary Clinton.

The megaClinton Foundationis also rife with cronyism and political favors.

For a larger list of scandals associated with the Clintons, check out The Clinton Crime Library.

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10 Scandals Involving Hillary Clinton You May Have ...