Mediaboss Marketing

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan addresses his supporters at the Presidential Palace in Ankara, April 17, 2017. (photo byREUTERS/Umit Bektas)

Author:Week in Review Posted April 23, 2017

Erdogans high hopes for Trump

Amberin Zaman reports that US President Donald Trumps congratulatory call to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan following the April 16 referendum to give Turkey's presidency greater powers may have only served to heighten differences over US support for the Syrian Kurdish Peoples Protection Units (YPG).

The US State Department had been hesitant to congratulate Erdogan on the referendum, according to Zaman, based upon reporting from an observer group from the Organization of Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) and Council of Europe. The group's statementsaid fundamental freedoms essential to a genuinely democratic process were curtailed. The dismissal or detention of thousands of citizens negatively affected the political environment. The head of the delegation from the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe said, The referendum did not live up to Council of Europe standards. The legal framework was inadequate for the holding of a genuinely democratic process.

The Turkish Foreign Ministry slammed the OSCE report as politically motivated and accusatory and reflecting a biased and prejudiced approach.

Zaman writes, The prevailing consensus within the administration was that knowing how badly Erdogan wanted Washingtons seal of approval, some concessions could be wrested in exchange, particularly over the bitter differences between Turkey and the United States in the US-led coalitions campaign in Syria. But such calculations came to naught when Trump placed the phone call without seeking the State Departments advice, thoughAl-Monitor learned from sources familiar with details of the exchange that [US Secretary of State Rex] Tillerson was in the room when the call took place.

Zaman adds, ATurkish official speaking to Al-Monitor on strict condition of anonymity denied speculation that Trumps business partners in Turkey had helped arrange the phone call. Rather, Erdogans office had sought the conversation with Trump prior to the referendum and it was agreed in advance that it would take place. The official described the conversation as very very good and confirmed that it was mostly focused on Syria. The official said Erdogan had repeated Turkeys concerns over the USalliance with the Syrian Kurdish Peoples Protection Units (YPG) and had urged they be excluded from a planned offensive to liberate Raqqa.

In an interview on Al Jazeeratwo days after the call, Erdogan was optimistic about animprovement in US-Turkey relations under Trump, implying the United States would back off its support for the YPG.We previously had an agreement on the issue of the PKK [Kurdistan Workers Party], Erdogan said, according to his official website. There was also an agreement during Obamas tenure but Obama unfortunately deceived us over the PYD/YPG. But I dont believe the current administration will do the same. The PYD is the Syrian Kurdish Democratic Union Party.

This column in February noted that Erdogans hopes for a US turnaround on the YPG may be misguided, given the position of US military leaders.Zaman observes that Erdogans hopes may again be misplaced.US Central Commandcommander Gen. Joseph Votel and other senior administration officials are said to be pushing Trump to sign an executive dispensation that would authorize the Pentagon to directly arm the YPG and its Arab affiliates who fight under the banner of the Syrian Defense Forces (SDF), she writes. While Trump is believed to already be on board with this action, the White House delayed announcing that it was proceeding with theplan until after the Turkish referendum, reportedly because it didnt want Erdogan touse the issue to whip up anti-Americanism during thecampaign. It remains unclear whether the White House will now wait until Erdogans visit before signing. Many analysts say all the prevaricating points to the conflicting goals of defeating IS with the help of the Syrian Kurds without alienating Turkey,a key NATO ally.

Iran limits Iraq-Saudi rapprochement

Ibrahim al-Hatlani writes, Riyadh appears not to have high expectations about rapidly improving ties with Baghdad. A Saudi diplomatic source in Riyadh who spoke to Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity said that the appointment of a new Saudi ambassador to Baghdad is the best that can be expected in the short run. Other issues, such as opening the border, investments and cancellation of debt, cannot be seriously looked at before the Iraqi government gains control over the sectarian militias and their arms and shows that it has the ability to circumscribe Iran's influence in the country.

Ali Mamouri has written on Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadis efforts to improve ties with Turkey and Saudi Arabia, andthis column noted in January that improved Iraqi-Saudi ties could provide a much-needed spark for an Iran-Saudi dialogue on regional issues.

Hatlani observes that the Saudi and Iraqi governments are aware that normal bilateral ties would serve both their interests beyond any advantage to placating the United States desire for better relations between its allies. Yet there is not much trust between the two countries. Riyadh, which has no military or political influence in Iraq, is not ready to deal with Baghdad in light of Iraq's sectarian issues and the potential of armed groupssmuggling arms to Shiites in Qatif or facilitating the movement of extremists from and into the kingdom to Iran's advantage. That said, Baghdad cannot provide Saudi Arabia the assurances it seeks at the expense of losing its Iranian ally.

Al-Bab returns to life

Mohammad al-Khatieb reports that al-Bab has come back to life after the defeat of the Islamic State by Turkish-backed armed groups, including the Free Syrian Army, in February.

The sounds of motorbikes, a frequently used means of transportation in the city center, are a constant as civil defense members removerubble from the roads, Khatieb writes. As the regime has been cutting off the Euphrates River flow to the city ever since it took control ofal-Khafsa station March 8, residents have been forced to rely on water tanks filled from wells. While many shops in city markets had reopened their doorsincluding wholesale stores, shops selling gas cylinders, pharmacies and bakeries activity was limitedin comparison with the usual commercial and industrial activity, considering that al-Bab is one of the most populous cities inAleppo province.

Turkey believesthat al-Bab can serve as a haven for displaced Syrians due to the large residential areas stretching from the city and the towns liberatedby Operation Euphrates Shield over an area of 30 square kilometers, Khatieb reports. In this regard, Turkeys Gaziantep Mayor Fatma Sahinsaid in a statement April 6 that she was optimistic that al-Bab would be cleaned up from IS, which, she added, would lead to a win-win situation.

Read More: http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2017/04/erdogan-trump-hopes-iran-tempers-iraqi-saudi-rapprochement.html

Read the original post:
Does Erdogan expect Trump to ditch Syrian Kurds? - Al-Monitor

A decade ago, when then-Prime Minister of Turkey Tayyip Erdogan consolidated power with a sweeping electoral victory giving his Justice and Development Party almost 47 percent of the vote, both supporters and opponents loudly spoke out.

Whether they loved or hated him, there was no denying one out of two people you see in the street voted for Erdogan, in the words of his jubilant supporters.

Nearly a decade later, that sense of jubilation has been tempered among some Erdogan supporters. Because while preliminary official results showed 51.4 percent of the Turkish electorate voted on Sunday to change the constitution in a move that critics say will give Erdogan nearly dictatorial powers, this time the feeling was more one of rejection by nearly half of those Turks in the street 48.6 percent.

In fact, the no votes won out in three of Turkeys largest cities Istanbul, Ankara and Izmir. Erdogan also lost in his old parliamentary constituency of Uskudar, one of the busiest commercial and residential districts on the Asian side of Istanbul.

The reported Uskudar no vote of 53.3 percent the figure could have been much higher, say Erdogan critics who are contesting the national results delivered a blow to the ego of the leader who typically takes great pride in collecting votes from even the most remote parts of Turkey.

Some appear to disdain the results, Erdogan said late Sunday. Dont even try; He who grabbed the horse has already passed Uskudar, he added, referring to a Turkish proverb and indicating he had already moved on to planning his consolidation of power in the aftermath of the referendum.

Many took to social media to remind him that literally passing Uskudar wasnt so easy this time around. He who grabbed the horse has already passed Uskudar he says, but he could not even win the district, said one tweet.

Others were reminded of much-publicized incident from 2003 (https://twitter.com/hhseyinylmz/status/853946057583153152) where Erdogan was thrown from the back of a horse, which proceeded to promptly kick him in the groin as it ran off. He says he passed Uskudar with a horse, but neither the horse nor Uskudar accepted him, another social media user tweeted.

The no vote extended to other, formerly more reliable Erdogan areas like the Turkish capital of Ankara, home of Erdogans much-maligned 1,150-room presidential palace, and to the mega-metropolis of Istanbul, where his tenure as mayor in the 1990s catapulted Erdogan to greater national prominence.

Levent Gultekin, a prominent Turkish journalist and columnist, said despite having the convenience of exploiting all state institutions to reach their goals, the yes camp still could not exceed 51 percent.

They lost Istanbul, Ankara, Izmir, Adana, Diyarbakr, and Mersin, said Gultekin, Despite all the pressure, all the threats, all the lies and the media bombardment, 49 percent of the country resisted them The people refused to grant everything he wanted, to do anything he wanted, to own everything forever.

Critics also note that Erdogan jailed or exiled many opposition figures in the run-up to the referendum, including the co-leaders of pro-Kurdish HDP opposition party. The HDP managed to secure more than five million of a total of 49 million votes in Turkeys last general elections, in November 2015, despite a series of bombings and accusations of having ties with the Kurdish separatist group, the PKK.

That already-heavy hand of Erdogans control on Turkish media and other institutions, particularly since an aborted coup attempt last year that resulted in the arrest or detention of more than 100,000 Turks, actually left more of his opponents almost claiming victory in the results.

He dissected the entire country, and terribly polarized it, said Hasan Cemal, another Turkish journalist, who said the large no vote was a victory for the anti-Erdogan camp, despite all the oppression and all the pressure.

This 49 percent is what gives me hope for democracy, law, and the future of freedom.

Read the original:
Turkey's Erdogan, once greeted jubilantly, now rejected by ...

ANKARA Turkey's main opposition began a battle on Tuesday to annul a referendum handing President Tayyip Erdogan sweeping new powers, while the bar association and an international monitor said an illegal move by electoral authorities may have swung the vote.

A defiant Erdogan, whose narrow victory exposed the nation's deep divisions, has said Sunday's vote ended all debate on the more powerful presidency he has long sought, and told European observers who criticised it: "talk to the hand".

Prime Minister Binali Yildirim, whose job will cease to exist once the constitutional changes take full effect, said Erdogan would be invited to rejoin the ruling AK Party as soon as official results are announced, a sign the government has no intention of waiting to see the outcome of opposition appeals.

MORE FROM REUTERS:

* COMMENTARY: The real winners, and losers, in the Turkish referendum reut.rs/2oiA6bM

* COMMENTARY: Why Assad used chemical weapons reut.rs/2o5FMEV

Under the outgoing constitution, the president had been required to remain impartial and renounce party political ties.

Few in Turkey expect legal challenges to the referendum to lead to a recount, let alone a re-run. But if unresolved, they will leave deep questions over the legitimacy of a vote which split the electorate down the middle, and whose polarising campaign drew criticism and concern from European allies.

Turkey's bar association said a last-minute decision by the YSK electoral board to allow unstamped ballots in the referendum was clearly against the law, prevented proper records being kept, and may have impacted the results.

"With this illegal decision, ballot box councils (officials at polling stations) were misled into believing that the use of unstamped ballots was appropriate," the Union of Turkish Bar Associations (TBB) said in a statement.

"Our regret is not over the outcome of the referendum, but because of the desire to overlook clear and harsh violations of the law that have the potential to impact the results," it said.

The main opposition People's Republican Party (CHP), which has said it will take its challenge to the European Court of Human Rights if necessary, presented a formal appeal to annul the vote to the YSK.

CHP deputy chairman Bulent Tezcan said the number of missing votes was "unprecedented", although the exact number of unstamped ballots was unknown.

YSK Chairman Sadi Guven said on Monday the last-minute decision to allow unstamped ballots was not unprecedented as the government had previously permitted such a move.

An Austrian member of the Council of Europe observer mission said up to 2.5 million votes could have been manipulated, almost double the margin of Erdogan's victory, and that the YSK decision on unstamped ballots appeared illegal.

"These complaints are to be taken very seriously and they are, in any case, of such an extent that they would turn around the outcome of the vote," Alev Korun told ORF radio.

The European Commission, which unlike U.S. President Donald Trump has declined to congratulate Erdogan on Sunday's vote, called on Turkey to launch a transparent investigation into the alleged irregularities.

"There will be no call to Erdogan from the Commission, certainly not a congratulatory call," a Western official with knowledge of EU policy told Reuters. "Turkey is sliding towards a semi-authoritarian system under one-man rule".

"CONSIDERABLE COMPLAINTS"

Election authorities have said preliminary results showed 51.4 percent of voters had backed the biggest overhaul of Turkish politics since the founding of the modern republic, a far narrower margin than Erdogan had been seeking.

Erdogan argues that concentration of power in the presidency is needed to prevent instability. Opponents accuse him of leading a drive toward one-man rule in Turkey, a NATO member that borders Iran, Iraq and Syria and whose stability is of vital importance to the United States and the European Union.

Speaking in parliament on Tuesday, Yildirim said "rumours" of irregularities were a vain effort to cast doubt on the result.

"The people's will has been reflected at the ballot box, and the debate is over," he said. "Everyone should respect the outcome, especially the main opposition".

Omer Celik, minister for European affairs, said criticism of the referendum was politically motivated, defending what he said were Turkey's strong legal framework and transparent election process.

The YSK said on its website on Sunday, as votes were still being cast, that it had received "considerable complaints" that voters had been given slips and envelopes without official stamps and that - after an appeal from a ruling AK Party official - it would accept unstamped documents as long as they were not proven to be fraudulent.

The bar association, whose head Metin Feyzioglu is seen as a potential future leader of the opposition CHP, said it had also received phone calls from many provinces about unstamped ballots on Sunday and that its lawyers had advised that records of this should be closely kept once ballot boxes were opened.

But it said that had failed to happen, and that evidence of irregularities had therefore not been properly archived.

On its website, the YSK gave four examples of cases in previous decades where unstamped ballots had been accepted at individual ballot boxes. But those cases only affected several hundred votes and the decision was taken days after the vote and only once the possibility of fraud had been ruled out.

The YSK has also decided to annul elections in the past because of unstamped ballots. It cancelled the results of local elections in two districts in southeastern Turkey in April 2014 and re-held them two months later.

And in Sunday's referendum, the YSK's overseas election branch had already rejected an appeal by a ruling AK Party official to have unstamped envelopes counted as valid.

YSK officials could not be reached for comment.

(Additional reporting by Ece Toksabay in Ankara, Daren Butler in Istanbul, Shadia Nasralla in Vienna, Robine Emmott and Francesco Guarascio in Brussels; Writing by Nick Tattersall; Editing by Anna Willard)

PARIS The killing of a policeman by a suspected Islamist militant pushed national security to the top of the French political agenda on Friday, two days before the presidential election.

SYDNEY Denuclearisation of the Korean peninsula can still be achieved peacefully because of Washington's new engagement with China, U.S. Vice President Mike Pence said on Saturday, despite growing fears North Korea could soon conduct a new nuclear test.

See the original post here:
Opponents seek to annul Turkish vote as Erdogan's new powers ...

Rising from humble origins to take the helm of Turkey's government in 2003, Recep Tayyip Erdogan quickly attracted a fervent following. But Erdogan, who served as prime minister and then president, also became feared and hated by many who saw him as an increasingly autocratic leader seeking to erode the country's secular traditions by imposing his conservative, religious views.

Constitutional changes that would change the country's system of government from parliamentary to presidential and grant Erdogan even more authority were narrowly approved by Turkey's voters on Sunday, according to unofficial results from the country's election commission.

The changes, one of the most radical political reforms since the Turkish republic was established in 1923, could see the 63-year-old president remain in power until 2029.

The vote's outcome reinforced Erdogan's image as a figure both popular and polarizing. While thousands of flag-waving supporters cheered the referendum's approval, political opponents immediately questioned the legitimacy of the balloting and said they intended to challenge a sizeable share of the count.

Erdogan served three consecutive terms as prime minister as head of his Islamic-rooted Justice and Development Party, before becoming Turkey's first directly elected president in 2014.

Supporters found in him a man who gave a voice to the working- and middle-class religious Turks who long had felt marginalized by the country's Western-leaning elite.

He was seen to have ushered in a period of stability and economic prosperity, building roads, schools, hospitals and airports in previously neglected areas, transforming hitherto backwaters.

"He's a real leadership figure because he is not a politician that comes from the outside. He comes from the street," Birol Akgun, an international relations expert at Ankara's Yildirim Beyazit University, said. "He has 40 years of political experience and is very strong in practical terms."

But with each election win, Erdogan grew more powerful, and, his critics say, more authoritarian.

His election campaigns have been forceful and bitter, with Erdogan lashing out at his opponents, accusing them of endangering the country and even supporting terrorism. After surviving an attempted coup last July, Erdogan launched a wide-ranging crackdown on followers of his former ally, Islamic cleric Fethullah Gulen.

Erdogan blames Gulen, who lives in the United States, and his supporters for plotting the coup, an allegation Gulen has denied.

The crackdown saw roughly 100,000 people lose their jobs, including judges, lawyers, teachers, journalists, military officers and police. More than 40,000 people have been arrested and jailed, including pro-Kurdish lawmakers.

Hundreds of non-governmental organizations and news outlets have been shut down, as have many businesses, from schools to fertility clinics.

Erdogan has also blasted European countries, accusing authorities in the Netherlands and Germany of being Nazis for refusing to allow Turkish ministers to campaign for Sunday's referendum among expatriate voters.

His critics fear that if the "yes" vote prevails in the referendum, Erdogan will cement his grip on power within a system that has practically no room for checks and balances, opposition or dissent.

"One person will determine national security policies, according to the constitutional changes. Why one person? What if he makes a mistake? What if he is deceived? What if he is bought?" said Kemal Kilicdaroglu, head of the main opposition Republican People's Party, during a "no" rally in Ankara Saturday.

"Surrendering the Republic of Turkey to one person is a heavy sin. It's very heavy," Kilicdaroglu continued. "Can there be a state without rights and justice?"

As prime minister, Erdogan garnered support from Turkey's Kurdish minority, which is estimated to make up about one-fifth of the country's population of 80 million people. He eased restrictions on the right to be educated in Kurdish and to give children Kurdish names.

He also oversaw a fragile cease-fire in the fight between the state and Kurdish rebels in the country's southeast, a conflict that has claimed an estimated 40,000 lives since 1984.

But the cease-fire collapsed in 2015, and about 2,000 people have died since then, including nearly 800 members of the security forces. With renewed fighting in the southeastern predominantly Kurdish areas, it is unclear whether Erdogan still would have much support from the Kurdish community.

Erdogan has promised the new presidential system will herald a period of stability and prosperity for Turkey, a country that has suffered several coups in the past few decades.

"He is a harsh leader in character," said Ankara academic Akgun, who used to head a pro-government NGO. "But in Turkey, a country that has so many problems, in societies like ours, the image of strong leadership is necessary to command both fear and respect and trust in society."

The rest is here:
Turkey's Erdogan proves a popular and polarizing figure

Turkeys President Recep Tayyip Erdogan claimed victory on Sunday in a referendum on a proposal to massively expand his power, while dismissing the objections of opposition parties who challenged the outcome of the vote.

Erdogans victory sets in motion a transformation of Turkish politics, replacing the current parliamentary system with one dominated by a powerful presidency. According to preliminary results, a small majority of Turkish voters approved the set of 18 constitutional amendments that limits parliaments oversight of the executive, eliminates the office of the Prime Minister, and expands presidential power over judicial appointments. Erdogan and his supporters say the constitutional changes are needed to ensure stability, while opponents denounced the amendments as a step toward an era of autocracy.

The narrow, disputed outcome of the vote also sets the stage for a bitter struggle over the validity of the referendum results. According to Turkeys state news agency, the yes vote won by a margin of 51.2% to 48.8%. However, two opposition parties said they would challenge the result, citing violations in the vote-counting procedure. The campaign also took place in the wake of a vast political crackdown in Turkey following a failed military coup last July. The questions about the referendums results now promise to sow even more division in a country already deeply polarized over the figure of Erdogan and the merits of his proposed presidential system.

Addressing his supporters on Sunday night, Erdogan brushed aside questions of legitimacy, claiming a definitive victory in the referendum. "The discussion is over. 'Yes' has won."

Throughout the referendum campaign, Erdogan has argued the new system of government would introduce political stability and security. It certainly promises to make Erdogan the undisputed leader of Turkey for years to come, inviting comparisons to Vladimir Putin of Russia and other populist autocrats.

Whos going to stop Erdogan? There never was anyone to stop Erdogan, but now, even the formal possibility of there being something is erased from the law, says Selim Sazak, a fellow at the Delma Institute, an Abu Dhabibased think tank.

The dispute over the outcome of the referendum centers on a last-minute decision by the state election board to count ballots that did not receive an official authenticating stamp. The countrys largest opposition party says that as many as 1.5 million ballots did not receive such a stamp, a number that would more than account for the margin of victory in the margin of victory of 1.3 million reported by the state news agency. "At least half the country said no to constitutional change. This shouldn't be carried against the publics will, said Kemal Kilicdaroglu, leader of the centrist Republican Peoples Party, in a televised address on Sunday night. Angry demonstrations erupted late Sunday night in neighborhoods of Istanbul where the opposition is heavily represented.

This is a very close call, so I dont think people are going to let it go necessarily. It will probably be talked about for some time, says Selim Koru, an analyst at the Economic Policy Research Foundation of Turkey. He adds, The President is obviously going to continue and try to enact a transition to make everything irreversible as quickly as he can.

The entire referendum campaign took place amid political crackdown in the aftermath of a deadly military coup last July that failed to dislodge Erdogan and killed more than 200 people. After surviving the coup attempt, Erdogan moved to consolidate power, with authorities jailing thousands and dismissing tens of thousands of civil servants, soldiers, police officers, teachers, justice officials and others from their jobs. In a parallel set of court cases, hundreds of members of one major opposition party the Peoples Democratic Party have been imprisoned on terrorism charges, among them Members of Parliament. The government accuses the party of ties to outlawed Kurdish militants who are engaged in a long-running war with the Turkish state.

The results of the national vote also suggest some weaknesses in the Presidents base of support. In Istanbul, Turkeys largest city, where Erdogan came of age and rose to stardom as the elected mayor in the 1990s, the no votes edged out the yes votes. The "no" campaign also won the capital, Ankara, as well as Izmir, a major coastal city. A significant number of supporters of Erdogans own party, the Justice and Development Party (AKP), voted against the constitutional changes, signaling distrust with a the expansion of the power of a President who already has unrivaled control.

In Istanbuls Kasimpasa neighborhood, where Erdogan lived as a teenager and a young man, some of the Presidents supporters said they voted no.

A presidential system doesnt sound right to me, said Nazli Kaya, 32, standing outside a polling station in a school in Kasimpasa. I believe in diversity. I dont want a one-man system, she says.

Read more from the original source:
Erdogan's Referendum Victory Leaves Turkey More Divided ...