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President Trump prefers to use targeted economic weapons instead of the U.S. military forces against foreign adversaries. In keeping with this strategy President Trump is announcing a set of economic sanctions and tariffs against Turkey for their decision to cross into Syria and create a crisis amid all regional interests. (Source)

One of the reasons this strategy is better than any military action is simply because Turkey is a unique NATO ally, and the NATO alliance within Europe is insufferably incapable of taking action to defend their interests.

European NATO members want the benefits of a perpetual U.S. military presence. That EU outlook is simply beyond the limits of what President Trump is willing to do. President Trump wants to bring our troops home.

Youll notice the complete lack of action by the EU that would serve as a deterrent to President Erdogan of Turkey. All of the responsibility for counter-measures is being placed on the shoulder of Americans and the American taxpayer. The EU has not, is not and will not, lift a finger to impede the hostile activity by Turkey in Northern Syria.

Ultimately President Trump is highlighting the reason why the U.S. should withdraw from NATO by spotlighting the insufferable weakness of the assembly. NATO wont even vote to defend their own interests, so why should the U.S. be their crutch?

With Europe refusing to stand-up to defend their own interests, President Trump is removing U.S. forces from the untenable position of guarding all the big cat cages, ad infinitum, to keep the zoo status intact.

Instead, President Trump is going to support the Arab coalition and the GCC that has been assembling a military coalition to protect itself from the Muslim Brotherhood.

That is why President Trump is willing to support Saudi Arabia with more troops, while withdrawing from Syria where the U.S. was having to stand alone to protect the interests of Europeans who will not protect themselves.

In one regional area the U.S. will support and defend Israel, Egypt and Jordan. In the Southern region the U.S. will support the Gulf Cooperation Council (Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Oman, Yemen, Bahrain and Qatar).

Will political Islam likely have a resurgence in the region, and will Recep Erdogan rise as the head of the Ottoman Empire once again? The former is likely, the latter is unknown.

President Trump is correctly withdrawing U.S. troops from a position of adversarialism against a NATO member. Why should the U.S. protect the interests of allies who will not stand-up to protect themselves

President Trump is correct.

President Trump will use economic weapons against Turkey. And, in keeping with the doctrine, Europe better watch out. President Trump will likely use economic weapons against the EU for creating this mess and refusing to defend themselves.

President Trump will use military weapons to protect allies that are: (A) willing to protect themselves, and (B) willing to pay for the support of the U.S. military protection.

It is really a common sense doctrine Help those who help themselves.

These two tweets below really are the nub of it; and stunningly transparent. President Trump is letting it be well known that Turkey is on their own with this decision. Any entity who wants to assist Syria in defending the Kurds, and or repelling Turkey, is free to do so.

President Trump is leaving President Erdogan naked to his enemies.

There are many consequences possible.

This is one of those weird be careful what you wish for scenarios for President Erdogan, because in his lust to recreate the Ottoman Empire he just might get removed.

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Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan speaks during the extended meeting with provincial heads of ruling Justice and Development (AK) Party in Ankara, Turkey, on October 10, 2019.

Adem Altan | AFP | Getty Images

Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan threatened Europe with a flood of refugees on Thursday if the continent's leaders call the Turkish invasion of Syria an "occupation."

"We will open the gates and send 3.6 million refugees your way," Erdogan said while speaking to officials from his ruling AK Party, according to Reuters.

A Turkish offensive in northern Syria has been underway since Wednesday, with airstrikes and artillery fire targeting U.S.-allied Kurdish forces on the ground.

The operation began just days after President Donald Trump made a surprise announcement withdrawing U.S. troops from a part of Syria that had been reclaimed in a bloody and drawn-out war between the U.S.-led coalition and the so-called Islamic State. Trump framed his decision as one that would hand the responsibility of containing IS to the Turks.

And late Wednesday, he defended his decision to allow the Turkish offensive by saying the Kurds did not help the U.S. during World War II.

Ground fighting since 2014 against the extremist group was spearheaded by Kurdish forces that made up the bulk of the Syrian Democratic Forces, a U.S.-backed organization now tasked with governance of the area and containment of resurgent IS fighters and overcrowded IS prisons. In particular instances, when asked for help in the anti-IS fight, Turkey refused to help the Kurdish forces, which it sees as allies to dissident Kurds in his country.

Erdogan has pledged to clear the area of "terrorists," and says his aim is to allow a path for the return of Syrian refugees in Turkey to go back home. Numerous U.S. officials have cast doubt on that promise.

Ankara has long vowed to wipe out the Kurdish militia presence along its border in northern Syria, which it views as a security threat and indistinguishable from a separate Kurdish terrorist group that is waging a counterinsurgency inside Turkey.

The Turkish military confirmed Wednesday it had "launched the land operation into the east of the Euphrates River" and said it had hit more than 100 "militant targets."

"The operation is currently continuing with the involvement of all our units. ... One-hundred-nine terrorists have been killed so far," Erdogan said, without specifying whether this meant IS fighters or the Kurdish militia members Ankara also calls terrorists.

Activists on the ground say at least seven civilians have been killed. Video footage showed civilians trying to flee as dark plumes of smoke rose on the horizon.

European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker expressed concern on Wednesday over the offensive.

"Turkey has security concerns at its border with Syria, that we must understand. However, I call on Turkey, as well as other actors, to act with restraint," Juncker told the EU Parliament.

A spokesperson for U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson said the British government had "grave concern," and "we do not support the action" by Turkey. EU diplomats have warned of a fresh humanitarian crisis and a setback in the effort to counter and contain IS.

Turkey hosts the largest number of refugees in the world, with 3.6 million registered Syrian nationals in 2018 and 40,000 refugees and asylum-seekers of other nationalities, according to the U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees.

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Turkey's Erdogan threatens to release millions of refugees ...

ISTANBUL/BEIRUT (Reuters) - Turkey will mount a military operation in northeast Syria, it said on Saturday, after accusing Washington of not doing enough to expel Syrian Kurdish fighters from its border.

The air and ground operation east of the Euphrates river in Syria could start at any time, President Tayyip Erdogan said.

The U.S.-backed force which controls the region, the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) led by the Kurdish YPG militia, said it wanted stability but vowed to respond to any attack.

We will not hesitate to turn any unprovoked attack by Turkey into an all-out war on the entire border to defend ourselves and our people, SDF spokesman Mustafa Bali said.

NATO allies Ankara and Washington agreed in August to set up a zone in northeast Syria along the border with Turkey, which considers the YPG a terrorist organization linked to Kurdish insurgents at home.

Turkey has accused the United States, which helped the YPG defeat Islamic State militants in Syria, of moving too slowly to create the zone. They are at odds over how far it should extend into Syria and who should control it.

Ankara wants the zone to stretch 30 km (19 miles) inside Syria and to be cleared of YPG fighters. It has repeatedly warned of launching an offensive on its own into northeast Syria, where U.S. forces are stationed alongside the SDF.

Erdogan said Turkey aimed to water the east of Euphrates with fountains of peace and settle refugees there.

We gave all warnings to our interlocutors regarding the east of Euphrates and we have acted with sufficient patience, he said at the opening of his AK Partys annual camp.

Weve made our preparations, weve completed our operation plans, given the necessary instructions. He added that air and ground actions could start as soon as today or tomorrow.

Turkeys state-owned Anadolu Agency said late on Saturday that nine trucks loaded with armored vehicles and one bus carrying military personnel had been sent to the border district of Akcakale, located in the southeastern province of Sanliurfa.

The convoy was sent to reinforce military units based on the Syrian border, Anadolu said. It was not immediately clear whether the shipment was in preparation for an incursion.

Ankara says it wants to settle up to 2 million Syrian refugees in the zone, nearly halving the number sheltering in Turkey from Syrias more than eight-year conflict.

However, the refugee transfer could face resistance from allies opposed to changing the demographic balance of the area. Kurdish leaders have previously accused Turkey of seeking to resettle mainly Arab Syrians from other parts of the country in their region - which Ankara denies.

U.S. and Turkish troops have so far carried out half a dozen joint air missions over northeast Syria and three land patrols, including one on Friday. Washington deems these concrete steps to address Ankaras concerns. Turkey says it is not enough.

Land patrols, air patrols - we are seeing all of these are fiction, Erdogan said on Saturday.

The SDF, which has said it will pull back up to 14 km (8.7 miles) on some parts of the border, is committed to the agreements under U.S.-Turkish talks and will remain so if dangerous threats stop, its spokesman Bali said.

Kurdish commanders have warned that a Turkish border attack would lead to a resurgence of Islamic State militants, from which the SDF seized vast territory in north and east Syria.

Simply, there will be a big gap in the towns that our forces will withdraw from to go to defend the border, and this will give Daesh the opportunity to return, Bali said.

In recent years, the Turkish military has launched two offensives with its Syrian insurgent allies in the northwest of the country and has forces stationed there.

Turkeys rebel allies pledged on Friday to back an offensive by Ankara east of the Euphrates, blaming the YPG for displacing Arabs from the region.

Reporting by Ali Kucukgocmen in Istanbul and Ellen Francis in Beirut; Editing by Alexander Smith, Frances Kerry, Kirsten Donovan and Daniel Wallis

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Erdogan says Turkey to launch military operation in northeast ...

Government supporters remain convinced that anti-Erdogan bias in the West is misconceived and point out that Turkey is - among other things - the worlds largest host of refugees.

It became the main route for those crossing to Europe, with thousands boarding dinghies every night from the Turkish coast to the Greek islands, and many drowning en route.

Turkey struck a deal with the EU to stem the flow - sending failed asylum seekers back. Its widely believed that European leaders have tempered their criticism of Erdogan because they needed his co-operation on migrants.

But in some Western capitals, anger at Turkeys unpredictable leader is growing. The European Parliament called for a suspension of EU membership negotiations.

In Turkey, this referendum will be a turning point. A yes would greatly strengthen Erdogans hand, giving him unprecedented power and possibly allowing him to remain in office until 2029, as well as virtually guaranteeing him and his family immunity from any attempts at prosecution.

A no would not spell the end for him - but would embolden the Turkish opposition and provide a chance for a political challenge.

Whichever way it goes, the chasm between Turkey and the West has grown dramatically.

Some blame Erdogan for that but others see the fault with the EU - that it had a window of opportunity after opening negotiations in 2005 to coax Erdogan into long-lasting reforms.

Instead, the argument goes, the EU gave way to the rhetoric of the likes of Frances Nicolas Sarkozy, who called Turkish membership unthinkable.

Turkey sensed it would continue to be held in the EUs waiting room.

Sadly, Europe sees President Erdogan and Turkey as an other through which to deflect their internal problems onto a distant and imaginary enemy, wrote Ibrahim Kalin, the presidents spokesman.

It only deepens the sense of mistrust that is already poisoning relations between Turkey and Europe on the one hand and Islamic and Western societies on the other.

Turkey matters. It remains a vital Western ally in the region, Natos eastern flank and a big trading partner. It is a crucial player in attempts to bring peace to Syria and the war against so-called Islamic State.

As it tries, with faltering success, to pivot more towards Russia and Gulf States, that could have a considerable geopolitical impact. The West cannot afford to lose this country.

Democracy is like a train, Erdogan once famously said. You get off once you have reached your destination.

Some believe he has many stations left to pass, others that this country is in the midst of a slow-motion train crash. This could be the crowning moment or the undoing of Erdogans Turkey.

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Erdogan's Turkey - BBC News

The US ultimatum gave Turkey very few days in which to choose between Nato and Russia. Either Ankara dropped the deal with the Ruskies to adopt their S-400 missile system or US punitive actions followed by the first week of June. The newly announced temporary band-aid of a joint US-Turkey study group will only postpone the reckoning. It will not resolve the fundamental issue of why Turkey's President Erdogan wants Moscow's missiles. He wants them badly. Considering what that means for Turkey's economy and defense capability, President Erdogan's obstinacy might seem baffling. The Turks would lose participation in the F-35 fighter jet program and ultimately all the privileges of integration with the Western alliance, infrastructure investments, bond underwriting, debt-service guarantees and much else. Turkish banks could ultimately face exclusion from the Swift system. Not the whole package at first but the very threat of increasing pressure would deflate the economy and devalue the currency sharply. The dark era of 1970s post-Cyprus-invasion misery could recur blackouts, shortages, insurgency, bunker economics.

Why would Ankara flirt with such disasters? Why broach the missile deal in the first place? You'd have to be highly motivated to incur such risks for your country. What is motivating Erdogan? After all, he has systematically reduced all institutional checks to his rule. Including the ballot box: He's in the process of neutralizing that too with a June 23 rerun of the recent municipal elections which his party lost. He has the country firmly in his grip. Why does he need Russian missiles? Answer: because his own military still worries him. Especially a military tied to Western weapons and training and indoctrination which makes it the last institution to be potentially independent-minded. He doesn't forget the air force jets that bombed the capital and challenged his own civilian airliner during the attempted coup.

Air force officers need to be highly literate. They tend to belong to the educated, more secular classes. They often spend years abroad learning their technical skills. In short, they're comprised of Erdogan's anti-demographic. He is right to fear them more than their land and sea counterparts. In general, as happened during the coup attempt, rebellious armed forces can be opposed and marginalized via media propaganda by flooding the streets with political supporters. But a mutinous air force presents an altogether different kind of threat. You might own the media but they own the skies; you can't hide strafing jets from the public. Anywhere in the country. They can intimidate or inflame, alter the psychological balance, fly over your supporters and find you. Most crucially, you can't shoot them down. And here's the rub. Nato radar and missiles are programmed to avoid targeting their own kind, ostensibly to prevent friendly fire incidents. As a result, should there be another coup attempt, forces loyal to President Erdogan manning Nato ground-to-air weapons cannot defend against Nato-built aircraft. But S-400 Russian missiles can.

That's why Erdogan is so highly motivated to buy the Kremlin's missile systems. Motivated enough to risk taking the entire country towards sanctions and economic catastrophe. No doubt, as a neo-Ottomanist he believes he can adopt strategic neutrality as the Turks did in the pre-and-post WWI years, playing both sides against the middle. Some around him have made noises implying that the West cannot afford to lose Turkey, or let it collapse, therefore Erdogan can defy the West as much as he wants. This is a dangerous fantasy. Neither Nato nor Europe can afford a radicalized, unstable or hostile state right on its borders, potentially locking up the Mediterranean's eastern shores as the Ottomans once did.

Erdogan may try to temporize for a while but he will have to choose one side or the other in the end, just as Yanukovych had to do in Ukraine. Yanukovych chose Moscow, which led to Maidan riots and his exile. Erdogan is not quite there yet but he is certainly girding his loins for the moment of truth when he might end up choosing Moscow despite huge Western pressure. The signs are there. He talks openly about building the successor S-500 system jointly with Russia. He fulminated publicly several times against Turkey being forced to join the renewed embargoes on Iran's economy, until he caved earlier this month (more about that later). He is building Russian nuclear power plants in the country. I wrote about his visit to Caracas in a previous column. He signed a deal making Turkey chief buyer of Venezuela's raw gold. Like oil and uranium, gold is a currency substitute, indeed a kind of currency. It acts as a hedge against sanctions. It prepares the economy for life outside the international banking system.

That's where all this is headed. And if he thinks, as he seems to, that there is a perfectly tolerable existence for the country outside that system, he needs to look again at the other countries now inhabiting that zone Syria, Venezuela, Iran and the like. Erdogan may hope that his newfound ally in the Kremlin will help uphold him but, historically, Moscow never harbored any sentimental impulses toward Turkey. There's no longterm guarantee of stability in embracing the Kremlin. Think realpolitik: the Kremlin wins just as conclusively if Turkey falls apart no more Nato eastern flank, no more impediment between Russia and the Mediterranean, no more pro-Western strategic architecture from Greece all the way to India. No more Ankara-funded resistance to Assad in Idlib.

Turkey could easily become Venezuela or even Syria. Or, at best, another Iran, with pseudo-democratic processes and a permanent governing elite furnishing a modicum of stability. Tragically, as we see in those countries, the elites responsible for pushing things that way don't necessarily lose. As the economy moves into the dark side, it concentrates in the hands of regime oligarchs who join the alternative global finance system - of massive hidden funds moving between tax havens, freeports, off-shore banks, failed states, and the like. Which is why, in the end, Erdogan probably didn't really mind adding Turkey to the countries enforcing sanctions on Iran. The rest of the population may lose the benefits of trading with its neighbor but the political elites usually find ways to profit in the shadows. The December 2017 Zarrab court case in New York which I covered in a two-parter in this column demonstrated how Turkish bankers did just that for their political masters.

As the economy in rogue countries shapes into clusters of pyramids topped by loyalist oligarchs those outside the patronage deltas find survival increasingly hard. They join up or they emigrate in large numbers. Thus the power structure consolidates itself. That approach is now a full-fledged recognizable system, one that we see replicated in country after country. It started in Putin's Russia and is now emulated widely. Because those countries have to use the same alternate global black money network, they are driven willy-nilly into each others' arms, however politically averse they may be. In effect, the Kremlin is building a new economic bloc as of old to rival the West's and Turkey looks about to become the latest member to join.

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Why Turkey's President Erdogan Wants Those Russian Missiles