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Russian President Vladimir Putin shaking hands with his Turkish counterpart, Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Credit: Kremlin/Wikimedia Commons CC BY 4.0

President Vladimir Putin is now showing the world signs of Russian revisionism by violating international law and disregarding international treaties. In Putins logic, justifying his invasion of a neighboring country, if Ukraine was once part of the Soviet Union, why shouldnt it be part of Russia now?

Some of the excuses the Russian leader used were that Ukraine is governed by a strawman and it harbors many neo-Nazis who are a threat to the lives of Russians living in the country. Never mind that its President, Volodymyr Zelensky, and Prime Minister, Denis Schmyhal, are both Jewish.

Last year, the Russian president stated that Russians and Ukrainians are one people, while in the past he had called the 1991 Ukrainian referendum for independence a mistake.

Putins rhetoric and justification of the invasion to another country reminds Greeks of the openly revisionist stance of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

Ankara claims that Greek islands close to its shores should belong to Turkey, or that the 1923 population exchange Turks living in Western Thrace are Turkish citizens; therefore Thrace also belongs to Turkey.

The close ties and exchanges between Putin and Erdogan make the two leaders appear to be architects of revisionism in sensitive geopolitical terrain including Eastern Europe, the Balkans and the Eastern Mediterranean.

Putins double talk promising the West that he will not attack Ukraine and yet invading the country two days later shows complete and utter disrespect for western powers and the EU.

At the same time, Russia threatens Sweden and Finland that if they dare join NATO, they will have to face the consequences. The Russian hegemon seems to view Europe as a soft military power that does not pose a threat to his might.

Similarly, the Turkish president exhibits his own revisionism by speaking of his vision to revive the Ottoman Empire of old, while at the same time negotiating with Europe for Turkeys accession to the EU.

On his part, as regards the military, Erdogan tries to keep one foot in NATO and the other in Russia. He buys the S-400 missile system from Russia and at the same time pledges allegiance to the Alliance.

For Putin it is Ukraine. For Erdogan its is Greece and Cyprus, two countries that he and his staff openly bully and threaten, while repeatedly violating their territorial rights.

Greek and Cypriot analysts see that Erdogan is likely to follow Putins Ukraine strategy in Greece and Cyprus. Not now that the Turkish economy is at an alarming low, perhaps but later on in the future, depending on the outcome and repercussions of Russias aggression.

Analysts believe that the occupied part of Cyprus is the easiest target for satisfying Erdogans taste for an empire of his own.

A large Turkish military presence in north Cyprus and the establishment of a pseudo-state is something that of course has been going on since the 1974 invasion.

Then there are always the repeated violations of Cyprus exclusive economic zone and claims that the islands natural resources belong to the Turkish Cypriots as well.

As for Greece itself, it appears to be much less likely to become ground for Ankaras revisionism than Cyprus.

The two neighbors are NATO allies, while at the same time Greeces military strength and preparedness do not pass unnoticed by Turkeys general staff.

Turkeys pretexts that Greece refuses to demilitarize its islands and the alleged oppression of Muslim minorities in Thrace are weak excuses for a possible attack against the country.

There are opposing views albeit only few to this argument, saying that Erdogan is unpredictable and may make a final move to attack Greece in the hope that the rest of the world is focusing in Ukraine at the moment.

Such a move, though, would be the final blow to the staggering Turkish economy. Adding to that the sanctions imposed by the international community on such an aggressive act, it would be the last nail in the coffin of Turkeys economy.

For Erdogan, it is difficult to keep his balance between Moscow and Brussels, between NATO and Putin. Any choice will cost him. And after the invasion of Ukraine, Erdogans tango between Moscow and Washington is becoming even more dangerous.

International treaties and agreements, which reflected the positions of the powerful and secured the safety of the less powerful are shaken, if not annulled, today.

Ukraine is the blackboard on which Putin tries to rewrite history based on nationalistic mythology, on a delusion of grandeur of a Russian Empire of the past.

Unfortunately for the rest of the world, he chose to rewrite it in blood.

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Putin and Erdogan: Architects of Revisionism - Greek Reporter

1. Erdogan Arrives in Kyiv and Reiterates Support for Ukraines Sovereignty  The New York Times
2. Turkey's Recep Tayyip Erdogan is the latest leader to visit Ukraine  The Washington Post
3. Erdogan offers Ukraine-Russia peace summit to defuse crisis  Al Jazeera English
4. Erdogan says Biden, West have not helped solve Ukraine crisis -media  Reuters
5. Can Erdoan and Putin visits become a milestone? | Daily Sabah  Daily Sabah
6. View Full Coverage on Google News

Read more here:
Erdogan Arrives in Kyiv and Reiterates Support for Ukraines Sovereignty - The New York Times

ANKARA, Feb 3 (Reuters) - Turkey will not respect the Council of Europe if it does not respect Turkish courts, President Tayyip Erdogan said on Thursday, when asked about a decision to refer the case against philanthropist Osman Kavala back to a top European court.

Kavala, one of Turkey's highest-profile detainees, has been held for more than four years without a conviction.

The European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) ruled more than two years ago that Kavala should be released immediately and said his detention served to silence him, but Turkey has not carried out the ruling.

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The Council said on Thursday that its committee had referred the case to the ECHR to determine whether Turkey has failed to meet its obligation to implement the court's judgment in line with the European Convention on Human Rights. read more

The referral to the ECHR is the next step in "infringement proceedings" that could result in Turkey's suspension from the Council of Europe, of which it is a founding member.

"The Committee found that, by failing to ensure Mr Kavala's immediate release, Turkey is refusing to abide by the Court's final judgment in his case," it said in a statement.

At a news conference, Erdogan said Turkey will not recognise those who do not recognise its courts.

"What the ECHR has said, what the Council of Europe says, this doesn't concern us much because we expect our courts to be respected," he said.

"To those who don't show this respect: excuse us, but we will have no respect for them either," Erdogan added.

The foreign ministry said on Wednesday Turkey had carried out the ECHR ruling and that Kavala was detained for a different judicial proceeding.

Kavala was acquitted in 2020 of charges related to 2013 nationwide protests. Hours later, another court ordered his arrest based on a charge of attempting to overthrow the constitutional order related to the 2016 coup attempt, which the ECHR had also said lacked basis.

That court later ruled to release him on that charge but ordered his detention on an espionage charge in the same case, a move critics said was aimed at circumventing the ECHR ruling.

Register

Reporting by Tuvan Gumrukcu, Ece Toksabay and Daren Butler; Writing by Ali Kucukgocmen; Editing by Daren Butler and Jonathan Spicer

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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Erdogan says Turkey will not respect Council of Europe - Reuters

A vendor waits for customers at a food market in Ankara, on Sunday. Turkeys central bank kept a key interest rate unchanged last week, halting a string of rate cuts that triggered a currency crisis and sent prices skyrocketing. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan runs classic stop-go economic policies linked to the political cycle, says Tim Ash. [AP]

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is jeopardizing Turkeys economy by pursuing an unorthodox economic policy in the hope that he can reverse his slide in the opinion polls and keep his chances of re-election alive ahead of elections in 2023, says Tim Ash, emerging market sovereign strategist at BlueBay Asset Management in London.

Ash describes the conditions that make capital controls on the Turkish economy a possibility. That is, despite the broader momentum of the countrys economy, which is being undermined by Erdogans insistence on rate cuts.

He speaks critically of the poor advisers around the Turkish strongman, while expressing concern that the situation could lead to a Lebanon-style crisis.

Culd you explain in a few words what exactly is happening in the Turkish economy today?

Erdogan runs classic stop-go economic policies linked to the political cycle. Elections are due by June 23. He is struggling in the polls so tries to use economic levers to win popularity. This means typically loose credit policies which buoy import demand and keep the trade and current account deficits elevated, and this puts pressure on the lira. The added complication is his religious views on interest rates he opposes usury. This means the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey cannot hike policy rates to slow import demand, which means the lira has to adjust weaker to close the external financing gap. The weaker lira just fuels inflation, which erodes competitiveness, and we end up in inflation-devaluation spirals.

How serious is this crisis? What is the danger for the Turkish economy today and how likely is the scenario of capital controls in Turkey?

I worry about a systemic crisis, including capital controls. If you cannot use interest rates and wont go to the International Monetary Fund, the risk is of a hyperinflation-devaluation spiral where people lose confidence in the lira and banks. The only option then is capital controls. An added complication is the CBRT has limited FX reserve buffers and net reserves are heavily negative likely $60-70 billion. So the CBRT is spending other peoples money. When the population realizes that, we might end up in a Lebanon-style crisis and run on banks.

But the Turkish economy is achieving positive growth rates. In fact, it was one of the few countries in the world with growth in 2020, a year of lockdowns. In addition, its public debt is no more than 40% of GDP and its budget deficit appears manageable, at 5% of GDP. So, is it a mixed picture when you analyze the course of the Turkish economy?

No, you are right there are positives and some durability here. The economy is delivering high growth likely 10% in 2021 but at the price of high inflation, 36% in December. So people dont feel better off. It eats away at living standards.

In the meanwhile, is the devaluation of the lira boosting the competitiveness of Turkish exports? Is that a positive side effect of an unorthodox policy?

The lira might be cheap, but not for long with high inflation.

What mistakes is Erdogan making? What is he thinking?

Its his obsession with interest rates. If Turkey had a decent central bank governor, able to set rates independently, I think Turkey could rebound quickly. You mentioned the positives, including low public debt, good demographics, decent banks and corporations, good location and a strong manufacturing base. Entrepreneurial pro-business culture. Turkey should be a success story. But Erdogan has his head in the sand, and has poor advisers around him. There are very few checks and balances to prevent policy mistakes.

What do the markets think of Turkey today? Have they lost confidence in the country or are they still waiting?

I think they are hoping elections bring policy change and orthodox policy. Most foreign investors have reduced positions and are on the sidelines waiting for change.

Would you say that the latest developments undermine Turkeys perspective as a member of the G20? Or does Erdoganomics still have room for experimentation in practice?

Post-Erdogan I think Turkey can bounce back quickly.

Read more:
Erdogan has his head in the sand, says analyst on Turkish economy - Kathimerini English Edition

In 2019, the UK halted new export licences for arms sales to Turkey but last December under Boris Johnson's orders they resumed normal licencing. The former Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab raised concerns that weapons might be used during military operations in Syria. Mr Raab condemned Turkeys invasion of Syria, saying: This is not the action we expected from an ally. It is reckless. It is counterproductive and plays straight into the hands of Russia, and indeed the Assad regime." President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who is gearing up to invade Syria,argues his forces are targeting Kurdish groups who he believes are terrorists, but one of the UK's key allies fighting IS are Kurdish groups.

Mr Raab said once called on Ankara to show maximum restraint and warned that incursions against Kurdish groups undermine international effort to defeat IS.

The British Government said licences will only be issued if the applicant can "incontrovertibly demonstrate that the goods will not be used in northeastern Syria."

It is very unclear how UK trade officials would be able to determine if the arms have been used in Syria or not.

Declassified UK submitted a Freedom of Information request to the Foreign Office and the government refused to provide the information they hold. They said doing so would prejudice relations between the UK and Turkey.

The UKs 2021 Defence Review also says: Turkey is a crucial NATO Ally."

Since 2016, Britain has sold nearly a billion pounds worth of military goods to Turkey and has produced laser targeting systems for F-16 bomber aircraft, other warplane components, and bomb racks and guidance systems for Turkeys Bayraktar-2 drones.

Less than two weeks ago, there was a siege on a prison in northern Syria. IS militants carried out multiple car bombs and it was the largest and most sophisticated attack by IS militants since the group's fall in 2019.

Many believe that the prison attack was coordinated by Turkish forces in a bid to free IS fighters as they have recently stepped up drone attacks in the area. As recently as Tuesday night, Turkish bombing devasted Yazidi a minority group who have continually been persecuted villages.And on Christmas Day 2021, a Turkish drone destroyed a youth movement house which was a violation of a 2019 peace treaty.

In response to the recent attacks, Foreign Secretary Liz Truss said: "Ministers and officials maintain regular contact with the Turkish Government and frequently discuss the situation in Syria."

A report from the Rojava Information Centre reveals that over 40 former ISIS members are being sheltered, funded and protected by Turkey in the occupied regions of Syria.

Since 2018, northeast Syria has been under the control of Turkish backed militias who seized control of the city after a two-month operation to remove Kurdish forces. The UN Commission of Inquiry on Syria found vast evidence of daily rape, sexual violence, harassment and torture in the first half of 2020 in the areas under Turkish control.

Atrocities are mirroring what happened to people at the hands of IS, but people are not being tortured by a militant Islamist group they are under the control of a NATO member.

The UK is Turkeys second-largest export market, and talks are set to begin this year on an even more expansive trade agreement.

France, Germany, the Netherlands and Finland have curbed arms sales to Turkey.

Andrew Smith from the Campaign Against Arms Trade said to The Guardian: "Its time that the rights of people were finally put ahead of arms company profits.

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UK covertly sends arms to Turkey as Erdogan steps up preparations for imminent invasion - Daily Express