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11 April 2023

President Erdogan's powers have increased dramatically since he first led Turkey in 2003

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has launched his ruling party's bid to stay in power, as he seeks to extend his leadership of Turkey beyond 20 years.

He is facing his stiffest challenge yet from six opposition parties who have combined forces for presidential and parliamentary elections on 14 May.

Turkey faces soaring inflation and is reeling from twin earthquakes that have left 50,000 people dead. Mr Erdogan and his ruling AK Party say they will bring inflation down to single figures, a commitment already made by their opponents.

Turkey has become increasingly authoritarian under President Erdogan and the opposition is seeking to reverse that.

Any candidate that can secure more than half the presidential vote on 14 May is the outright winner. Failing that, the race goes to a run-off two weeks later.

Whichever party wins the parliamentary vote is seen as having a psychological advantage if the presidential election goes to a second round.

Erdogan's challenge

Turkey's voters have been polarised for years, but Mr Erdogan, 69, is under pressure as never before. Turkey has become increasingly authoritarian under its current leader, who runs Turkey from a vast palace with much of the media controlled by his allies.

He has ruled Turkey since 2003, initially as prime minister but then as president since 2014, dramatically increasing his powers three years later after a failed 2016 coup. His AK Party has been in power since November 2002.

Increasing numbers of Turks have blamed him for soaring inflation, because of his unorthodox refusal to raise interest rates. The official inflation rate is just above 50%, but academics say it is actually higher than 100%.

Image source, Mustafa Kamaci/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images

President Erdogan's government has been criticised for its response to the twin earthquakes

Turkey's president and ruling party have also been widely criticised for failing to adapt Turkey's construction practices before the 6 February earthquakes and for mishandling the search and rescue efforts afterwards.

Millions of Turks were left homeless in the 11 provinces affected by the quakes. Since many of them are seen as Erdogan party strongholds, the election could be won and lost in the east.

His AK Party is rooted in political Islam, but he has forged an alliance with the ultra-nationalist MHP.

Six opposition parties - one candidate

Kemal Kilicdaroglu, 74, comes across as a mild-mannered, bookish opponent and he has presided over a string of election defeats at the helm of the main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP).

But this time could be different as he is fighting as a unity candidate for six opposition parties, ranging from his own centre-left party and the nationalist Good party to four smaller groups, which include two former Erdogan allies one of whom co-founded the AK Party.

Image source, ERDEM SAHIN/EPA-EFE/REX/Shutterstock

Kemal Kilicdaroglu has agreed that the leaders of his alliance will all share the role of vice president

Mr Kilicdaroglu also has the unofficial backing of Turkey's pro-Kurdish HDP, which is running for parliament under the banner of another party, the Green Left, because of a court case alleging links to Kurdish militants.

His selection was not universally popular, because some considered the mayors of Istanbul and Ankara as better candidates after they took control of the cities in 2019 for the CHP for the first time since 1994.

A former civil servant who is part of the Alevi minority, Mr Kilicdaroglu led a 24-day march for justice in 2017 which was seen as the biggest show of defiance against President Erdogan's rule for years.

His Nation's Alliance, also known as the Table of Six, are united in their desire to return Turkey from the presidential system created under Mr Erdogan to one led by parliament. To change the system, they need to win 400 of Turkey's 600 MPs, or 360 MPs to take a proposal to a referendum.

The leaders of the other five members of the alliance have agreed to take on the roles of vice-president.

Turkish opinion polls are notoriously unreliable, but any chance Mr Kilicdaroglu had of winning the election outright in the first round appears to have been dashed by the decision of a former centre-left party colleague, Muharrem Ince, to join the presidential race.

Mr Ince, 58, was the Republican People's Party presidential candidate in 2018, but left two years later because of differences with Kemal Kilicdaroglu, He now runs the secular nationalist Homeland Party and has faced accusations of diluting the opposition vote and playing into President Erdogan's hands.

But he has a strong presence on social media and young voters in particular have been impressed by his dance moves on TikTok.

One other candidate with little chance of significant success is ultra-nationalist Sinan Ogan, but he too has the potential to be a kingmaker.

How does the vote work?

To enter the 600-seat parliament, a party needs to attract 7% of the vote or be part of an alliance that does. That is why alliances have become so important in Turkey, and the six-party opposition have highlighted changing that as one of their proposed reforms.

Meral Aksener, leader of the Good Party, is one of the main backers of the opposition alliance

Turks vote for party lists rather than candidates under proportional representation, so seat numbers correspond to votes cast per party rather than alliances. In some seats, the opposition has agreed to fight under one party banner.

Candidates running for the Green Left instead of the pro-Kurdish party are part of the Labour and Freedom Alliance.

Under the Erdogan reforms, it is now the president who chooses the government, so there is no prime minister. And if his broad People's Alliance fails to win a majority in parliament, he may struggle to rule in the same way as now. The pro-Erdogan People's Alliance currently has 334 MPs.

Mr Erdogan has already served two terms as president, so a third appears to go against the rules of Turkey's constitution.

But Turkey's YSK election board ruled that his first term should be seen as starting not in 2014 but in 2018, when the new presidential system began with elections for parliament and president on the same day.

Opposition politicians had earlier asked the YSK to block his candidacy.

How would the opposition change Turkey?

The Kilicdaroglu-led Nation's Alliance alliance wants to restore Turkey's parliamentary system and reform the presidency, removing the head of state's right to veto legislation, cutting the post's ties to political parties and making it electable every seven years.

The six parties also want to kickstart Turkey's decades-long bid to join the European Union and restore "mutual trust" with the US, after years of fractious relations during the Erdogan years.

They have pledged to bring inflation below 10% within two years and send Syrian refugees home voluntarily. Turkey currently hosts some 3.6 million Syrian refugees.

Read more here:
Turkish elections: Erdogan kicks off race to hold on to power - BBC

6: Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan kicked off his reelection campaign Tuesday in a bid to defeat six opposition parties that have joined forces ahead of the May 14 poll. Erdogan, who has been in power for two decades, vowed to cut inflation now at 50%, thought analysts say it's higher to single digits, though his aggressive slashing of interest rates continues to baffle economists.

100: Around 100 people, including children, are thought to have been killed on Tuesday when Myanmars military junta launched air raids on the central town of Pazigyi in the Sagaing region, 110 kilometers (45 miles) outside of Yangon. The region was considered a hotbed of opposition after the junta staged a coup in Feb. 2021.

1,200: The Italian coastguard is trying to rescue around 1,200 migrants stranded on two overcrowded boats off the coast of Sicily. One vessel originated in Libya, while the origin of the other fishing boat carrying 800 people is unclear. Italian ministers declared a state of emergency Wednesday that will free up cash to deal with the uptick in migration to Italy. How are Rome and Brussels responding to the surge? Read our primer.

13,000: A 78-year-old Missouri woman named Bonnie Gooch has been arrested for bank robbery. She allegedly gave a bank teller a note last week demanding 13,000 small bills while banging erratically on the counter. This is her third such arrest, with her first heist dating back to 1977. Bonnies in jail with a $25,000 bond hanging over her head, and were left wondering: Wheres Clyde?

Original post:
Hard Numbers: Erdogans opposition, Myanmar militarys deadly air raids, Italian coastguards rescue mission, Bonnie without Clyde - GZERO Media

Two major earthquakes rocked Turkey on February 6, killing more than 50,000 people and injuring thousands more. Hundreds are still considered to be missing, while millions of earthquake victims found temporary shelter with relatives and friends in other cities.

The deadly earthquake and its aftermath will serve as the backdrop to Turkey's parliamentary and presidential elections on May 14, which have the potential to upend Turkey's political landscape. For the first time since taking office more than 20 years ago,President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is not the favorite in thepresidential race.

During his two decades in office, first as prime minister then as president, Erdogan has shaped the country like no other politician before him. He has changed legislation to reshape the Turkish state in his image. Since introducing the presidential systemhe has ruled the country as a de facto autocrat, relegating parliament to insignificance.

Two months after the earthquake and one month before the vote, polls point to a close race between the government camp and the leading opposition alliance. Some institutes have predicted a defeat for Erdogan's electoral alliance. In the race for the presidency, Erdogan is trailinghis main challenger,Kemal Kilicdaroglu, who leads the largest opposition alliance.

Erdogan, however, remainsan excellent tactician: he hasn't lost an election since 2002 and survived mass protests, including the 2013 Gezi Park demonstrations and an attempted coup in 2016.

Even now, he knows how to look out for himself politically. The 69-year-old recently secured the support of small Islamist splinter parties for his electoral alliance, the People's Alliance and they could tip the scales in a close race.

The New Welfare Party (YRP) recently joined Erdogan's People's Alliance. That party's demand to abolish Law 6284 whichobliges the state to protect women from violence and, if necessary, to guarantee them anonymity has led to indignation in Turkey.At least 234 women in Turkey were victims of femicide in 2022, and the We Will Stop Femicideplatform lists an additional 245 suspected cases.

Laws protecting women have long been a thorn in the side of Islamist communities and parties in Turkey. They have blamed such laws forrising divorce rates, and see them as an expression of Western interference in Muslim-Turkish family structures. These Islamic groups have put significant pressure on Erdogan's AKP government to reverse such laws. Just two years ago, Turkey withdrew from the international Istanbul Convention on Preventing and Combating Violence Against Women.

The addition of the YRP brings Erdogan's electoral alliance to four parties, the other three being the Islamic-conservative AKP, the ultranationalist Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) and the Great Unity Party (BBP). In Germany, constitutional protection authorities have been monitoring the structures of these three parties for years though not the parties themselves.

The MHP and BBP are rooted in the nationalist "Ulkucu" movement, better known as the Gray Wolves. German authorities list the far-right organization as ultranationalist, antisemitic and racist. Convinced of the superiority of the Turkish nation, they see mainly Kurds, Jews, Armenians and Christians as their enemies. They aim for a homogeneous state of all Turkic peoples under Turkish leadership, from the Balkans to western China.

Erdogan's largest partner in the alliance, the MHP, is "the original organization of the Gray Wolves," the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution (BfV) told DW. The Federation of Turkish Democratic Idealist Associations in Germanyrepresents the MHP's interests in Germany, according to the BfV. It says that, with 7,000 members, it is the largest umbrella organization within the Gray Wolves' group.

Erdogan's second major partner, the BBP, is also rooted in the Gray Wolves' ideology. The party sees Islam as an important component of Turkish identity. The BBP is believed to be behind numerous political murders in Turkey, and itsmembers are also alleged to have been involved in the 2007 assassination of Armenian journalist Hrant Dink. Its organization in Germany, according to the BfV, is the Federation of World Order in Europe.

Erdogan's new partner, the YRP, is rooted in the ideology of Milli Gorus, whose structures are also under surveillance in Germany. It wants to replace the "Western order of injustice" with an Islamic "just order," according to the BfV. The YRP is currently polling at 0.8% to 2%of the vote.

The Islamist Hda-Par party which, according to the North Rhine-Westphalia State Office for the Protection of the Constitution,is close to Turkish Hezbollah also supports Erdogan. Back in the 1990s, Turkish Hezbollah tortured and murdered numerous human rights activists, businesspeople and politicians in Anatolia. According to German authorities, the group has 400 members in Germany and is also being monitored.

In recent years, Erdogan has built up a strongpower apparatus. He created his own elite by means of state contracts, nepotism and corruption, and endowed numerous Muslim orders with privileges. Should he lose the election, that elite would lose influence and wealth which is presumably why Menzil, Turkey's largest orthodox Sufi order, recently announced its support for Erdogan's alliance.

Erdogan's electoral alliance is a combination of political Islam and ultranationalism, according to the Austrian political scientist Thomas Schmidinger. "Menzil in particular has already replaced the Gulen movement as one of the AKP's most important religious networks since the coup attempt in 2016," Schmidingertold DW, adding that it makes sense for the order to try and defend its newfound privileges.

In 2016, the Turkish government declared the Gulen movement a terrorist organization suspected of being behind the coup attempt on July 15, 2016. From the time Erdogan came to power in 2002 until 2016, the movement was animportant AKP ally.

Should Erdogan win the vote on May 14, Schmidinger does not expect any immediate political changes. Erdogan will likelycontinue to pursue an aggressive foreign policy to compensate for domestic problems, he said.

However, Schmidinger said an election victory for the governing electoral alliance looks unlikely. Due to the failed economic policy and poor crisis management after the massive earthquakes in February, the AKP-led alliance is no longer backed by a majority of the electorate, he said.

"Even in Turkey, elections can only be rigged to a certain extent," he added, referring to allegations of fraud in previous years.

Schmidinger said he doubted Erdogan would voluntarily concede the field in the event of a defeat.The Turkish state is, after all, largely controlled by Erdogan's cronies, he argued. Erdogan's followers have stocked up on weapons since the attempted coup, Schmidinger added, which could make armed conflicts possible. As a result, he said, even in the event of an election defeat, a change of regime might not go smoothly.

This article was originally written in German.

See the original post:
Turkey vote: Who are Erdogan's allies? - DW (English)

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan called President Isaac Herzog on Saturday night to express his concerns amid escalating tensions in Jerusalem and the West Bank over the past week, as Israel grapples with a string of terror attacks that killed three people over the weekend.

According to a readout from Herzogs office, Erdogan initiated the phone call and expressed his condolences to the Israeli people for the separate attacks Friday in the West Bank, where two sisters were killed and their mother was critically injured, and in Tel Aviv, where an Italian tourist died in a suspected car-ramming attack.

The call came as Muslims mark the Islamic holy month of Ramadan which this year once again coincides with the Jewish festival of Passover. Erdogan wished Herzog and the people of Israel a happy Passover, and the Israeli president responded with the greeting Ramadan Kareem.

In Israel, the month of Ramadan is known to be a period of high tensions between Israeli forces and Palestinians, especially in Jerusalem and the West Bank. Tens of thousands of worshipers visit the Al-Aqsa Mosque located in the Temple Mount in Jerusalem throughout the month, regularly leading to a spike in violence. The site is the holiest site for Jews, as the location of two biblical temples, while the Al-Aqsa Mosque on the Mount is the third holiest shrine in Islam, turning the area into a major flashpoint in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

This week, tensions have soared following clashes at Al-Aqsa, followed by tit-for-tat rocket fire by terror group Hamas from the Gaza Strip and Israeli strikes, a major rocket barrage from Lebanon on Thursday also believed to be the work of Hamas in southern Lebanon as well as rocket fire Saturday night from Syria, and a suspected Iranian drone launched from Syria earlier in the week.

On Tuesday, police said they had entered Al-Aqsa after masked youths barricaded themselves inside with fireworks, clubs and rocks and refused to come out peacefully. Officers apparently believed the group intended to assault Jews visiting the mount on Passover Eve.

File: Israeli security forces guard near Al-Aqsa Mosque on the Temple Mount in Jerusalems Old City, during the holy month of Ramadan April 5, 2023. (Jamal Awad/Flash90)

Video of police apparently beating Palestinians in the mosque went viral and sparked outrage across the Muslim world. Police said in response that they had come under direct fire.

In a call with Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi on Friday, Erdogan said that the Islamic world should be united against Israels attacks in Palestine.

The call to Israels arch-foe Iran, which backs Hamas and Lebanons Hezbollah terror group, likely presents a challenge to Jerusalems newly restored ties with Ankara.

Emphasizing that common sense should prevail to prevent a new spiral of violence, Erdogan said that it would be beneficial to take initiatives to guide all parties to common sense, the Turkish readout said of the call with Raisi, without elaborating.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, left, and his Iranian counterpart Ebrahim Raisi shake hands at the conclusion of their joint press briefing at the Saadabad Palace, in Tehran, Iran, Tuesday, July 19, 2022. (AP Photo/Vahid Salemi)

In the call with Herzog on Saturday, the Israeli president affirmed the countrys commitment to preserving the status quo on the Temple Mount, and at the holy sites in general, according to the Israeli readout.

Herzog told the Turkish president that Iran, by means of its proxies, including Hamas, is leading a campaign on several fronts with the aim of undermining regional stability and is using terrorism based on religious incitement, focusing on the situation in Jerusalem.

The president referred to biased and false reports in the Arabic-language media, and gave as an example the dissemination of fake and outdated videos to encourage incitement, leading to terrorism, according to the readout.

In the Turkish readout, cited by the Haaretz news site, Erdogan brought up the attack by the Israeli forces on the Al-Aqsa Mosque on Tuesday, and Israels harsh attitude towards the worshipers in the holy places.

Erdogan told Herzog Muslims would not be able to remain silent in the face of the provocations and threats to the status and spirituality of Al-Aqsa, adding that events like this, which occur every Ramadan, should not be allowed to dictate the fate of the entire region.

He said Turkey was ready to assist in steps for sustainable justice and peace.

Under an arrangement that has prevailed for decades under Jordans custodianship, Jews and other non-Muslims are permitted to visit the Temple Mount under numerous restrictions and only during limited hours but may not pray there. This arrangement is commonly referred to as the status quo. In recent years, Jewish religious figures, including members of the new governing coalition, have increasingly visited the site and demanded equal prayer rights for Jews there, infuriating the Palestinians and Muslims around the world.

Read the original here:
Turkeys Erdogan phones Herzog to discuss Temple Mount tensions, terror attacks - The Times of Israel

As Turkey nears potentially pivotal May 14 elections, all eyes are on two men incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his chief challenger, Kemal Kilicdaroglu. But their battle for the countrys highest office may be decided, in part, by a third candidate for the post.

After 21 years running the country, Erdogan faces the biggest test yet of his grip on power.

He currently trails in opinion polls behind Kilicdaroglu, the joint candidate of the Nation Alliance opposition bloc, but experts say the Erdogan camp is counting on another challenger, Muharrem Ince, to split the opposition vote and force a run-off.

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Go here to see the original:
Turkey's Weakened Erdogan Seeks to Engineer Presidential Run-Off - Balkan Insight