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Zbigniew Brzezinski habitually lamented the failureof American Policymakers to study maps of the world, to appreciate the historic impact of wars, economics, history, religion, language, culture, and climate. For Brzezinski, strategytheart and science of employing Washingtons political, economic, psychological, and military powerwas not real without a map.

Turkish PresidentRecep Tayyip Erdoganagrees.When Erdogan views the map of the Middle East,Erdogan sees Syriaand most of Iraq as historic Turkish territory taken from the Turks when the Ottoman Empire collapsed at the end of WWI. It is no accident that Turkswear T-shirtswith Erdogans picture and the slogan The Sultan of the World.

However, Erdogans recent determination to rescue the criminal remnants of the Islamic State or Daesh (ISIS), from destruction at the hands of Russian and Syrian Forces in Idlib, Syria brought him into direct confrontation with another man who appreciates the importance of maps: Vladimir Putin. The Russian border lies barely 500 miles from Syria and Russian Forces remain engaged in suppressingSunni Islamist insurgents in the Caucasus.

Acutely sensitive to the potential threat that President Erdogans mix of Ottoman Nationalism and Sunni Islamism presents, Vladimir Putin has also committed Russia todefend Christiansacross the Middle East and he maintains good relations with Israel. Thanks to President Putin, Sunni and Iranian-backed Shiite Islamist forces have been unable to establish bases in Syria from which they can attack Israel.

For the moment,Erdogans hastily agreed ceasefire with Putingives Ankara continued military control of Syrias Northernmost border, but the ceasefire does not equate to conflict termination. Erdogans regional aspirations mean unrelenting conflict with Russia.

Anearly benefactor of ISIS, President Erdogan has already re-purposed many of the Sunni Islamist terrorists Turkish forces rescued from Idlib for Turkish-led operations in Libya.Erdogan remains committedto his goal ofreplacingGeneral Sisis government with an Islamist State controlled by the Muslim Brotherhood.

To Erdogans chagrin, theRussians are fighting in Libyaalongside General Haftars army. Together with Haftar, the Russians are all that currently prevents Erdogan from creating a Sunni Islamist State that borders Israel on the West.

Meanwhile, on Planet Washington, President Trumps Secretary of State plotted with his trusted agent andincurable Never Trumper,Ambassador Jeffrey, the U.S.Special Representative for Syria Engagement,to cultivate war between Russia and Turkey. Guided by an ostensibly incurable hatred of Russia, Trumps Department of Statepromised Erdogan ammunition and intelligence in the hope that Erdogan would commit the Turkish Armed Forces todrive Russia out of Syria.But why would a U.S. Secretary of State deliberately run the risk of turning a localized conflict into a regional war, a war that would certainly engulf most of the States in the Eastern Mediterranean? To date, President Trump has scrupulously avoided unnecessary conflict in the Middle East, Northeast Asia and the Caribbean Basin.

Like Erdogan, Pompeo knows Russias position in Syria is weak. Russia has no substantial ground force in Syria and Erdogan can easily block any Russian attempt to reinforce its small contingent in Syria through the Dardanelles. Putins military adventure in Syria is alsounpopular with the Russianpeople and a needless drain on Russias dwindling treasury.

Erdogans economic position is hardly robust, but Turkey enjoys enormous foreign direct investment (perhaps as much as $50 billion over the last five years) fromthe Peninsular Arab Statesthat enables Erdogan to champion the Sunni Islamist cause. If Pompeo can exploit the bipartisan Russian paranoia that threatened the Trump Presidency, perhaps Pompeo can exploit the bipartisan hostility to Russia, back Turkey in its war and, eventually, launch his own run for the White House?

Perhaps these are the reasons why the Secretary of State pushed Erdogan to call Putins bluff. Time will reveal the truth, but today,it would be the gargantuan joke of the 21stCentury if President Trump were to allow Secretary of State Pompeo to align American military power with Erdogans Sunni-led Islamist cause; the same cause that attacked New York City and killed thousands of Americans.

Erdogan is obsessed with power and drivento overturn the regional order in favor of SunniIslamism, an ideology totalitarian in action, and cloaked in religion. President Trump should instruct his Secretary of State to tell President Erdogan that if he confronts Russia and Syria on the battlefield, Erdogan does so without any American or Western assistance. As Israeli officers with many years experience in the region advise, When your enemies are killing each other, dont interrupt.

Col (ret) Douglas Macgregor, US Army, is a decorated combat veteran, a PhD and the author of five books. His latest isMargin of Victory(Naval Institute Press, 2016). This article first appeared last month.

Image: Reuters.

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Trump Must Stop Russia And Turkey From Fighting Over Syria - The National Interest

Columnist Harut Sassounian

BY HARUT SASSOUNIAN

The world as we knew it changed dramatically in the last few weeks due to the unexpected spread of the deadly coronavirus. Hundreds of millions of people around the world are isolated in their homes, scared of coming in contact with anyone who might be carrying the virus.

Several autocratic heads of states were slow to react to the virus denying that it was a serious problem in their countries. Eventually, as more and more people were infected with the virus, these leaders finally saw the light and started to take urgent measures to protect their people.

One such irresponsible leader is the President of Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Michael Rubin, a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute, wrote a lengthy article in the March 16, 2020 issue of The National Interest, titled: Gambling with 80 Million Lives: Why Erdogan Lied about Coronavirus.

Rubin referred to Ergin Kocyildirim, a Turkish pediatric cardiothoracic surgeon at the University of Pittsburghs School of Medicine, who described in an essay both the Turkish governments claim to have established an effective testing kit and the fraudulence of its claims.

Even though the Turkish Health Minister initially denied that there were any coronavirus cases in Turkey, after widespread claims of the spread of the virus, Turkish authorities arrested the whistle-blowers. Another 64 Turks were jailed after being accused of disseminating false and provocative information. Furthermore, members of the state-controlled Turkish press panel insisted that Turkish genes rendered most Turkic people immune, Rubin reported.

Rubin attributed Erdogans lies about the absence of the coronavirus in Turkey to his dangerous combination of arrogance and ignorance. A larger motivation may be fear. While Turkeys demography is shifting in Erdogans favor as conservative families from Turkeys Anatolian heartland grow relative to the Europeanized Turks from central Istanbul and the Mediterranean coast, the economy is faltering. In 2010, Erdogan promised that by Turkeys 2023 centennial, Turkey would be one of the worlds top ten economies. Even before coronavirus, Turkey would be lucky to remain in the top 20 as corruption, nepotism, political interference in business, and broad mismanagement have combined to send confidence in Turkeys economy into the gutter.

Another reason Rubin gives for Erdogans cover-up of the spread of the coronavirus in Turkey is his fear of the collapse of the tourism industry. In 2018, the Turkish tourism industry accounted for nearly $30 billion dollars. Just a year ago, Erdogan promised that Turkey would host 50 million tourists, raising that figure by at least 20 percent. Add into the mix Turkeys investment of approximately $12 billion in a new Istanbul airport, expected to be the worlds largest, and one in which Erdogan and his family are reportedly heavily invested. It seems Erdogan sought to downplay reports of coronavirus in order to encourage tourist dollars to continue to flow. In doing so, he sought not only to play Russians, Europeans, and Americans for fools, but also endangered their lives. Unfortunately for Turkey, it will be Turks who will most pay the price as Turkey threatens to become the virus next big cluster. One Turkish doctor estimates that as many as 60 percent of Turks may now be infected and that Erdogan is retarding testing in order to prevent the scale of the catastrophe from becoming known. Deaths were inevitable, but Erdogans dishonesty will likely cause many thousand additional deaths in his country added to the dozens Turkey reportedly has already experienced but will not officially report.

To make matters worse, as in several other countries, the Turkish public has invented fake cures for the coronavirus. Nazlan Ertan wrote in the Al-Monitor website that Turks are now resorting to cannabis and sheep soup to fight the vicious virus.

Abdurrahman Dilipak, a prominent Islamist columnist for the daily Yeni Akit newspaper, suggested that cannabis can create a major barrier to the global spread of the virus. Dilipak, who has 700,000 Twitter followers about six times more than his newspapers circulation, also urged his Turkish readers to avoid receiving any vaccines from overseas because they would likely contain sterilization agents, linking such vaccines to an Aryan plot.

After a Turkish professor suggested the kelle pacha (sheep soup) cure, many Turks flocked to local restaurants preferring the soup to social distancing. The outbreak of coronavirus led to high demand for kelle pacha, Hurriyet reported on March 16. After the news articles, the kelle pacha orders both at the restaurant and as take-away have increased, said a waiter at Ismet Usta, a popular restaurant in downtown Izmir.

All of these remedies from gorging your throat with vinegar to whatever soup, has no use, Mehmet Ceylan, the president of the nongovernmental Infectious Diseases Association, said in an NTV news program on March 16. These are unscientific and should not be spread [through the media or word of mouth].

Fortunately, in recent days, there has been a turnaround in the approach of Turkish officials to the virus. They are now urging the population to stay indoors in self isolation to avoid more infections. I hope that these measures are not too late and millions of Turks are not already at risk. The announced numbers of 1236 infections and 30 deaths due to the coronavirus do not reflect the real figures.

At this critical time, we wish everyone good health, regardless of nationality, religion or skin color. We hope that this malicious disease has inadvertently helped to bring people and nations closer to fight together the common invisible enemy.

Continued here:
Erdogan's Denial of Coronavirus Crisis Risks the Lives of 80 Million Turks - Asbarez Armenian News

The Centers for Disease Control and Preventions manual for global and national health emergencies makes one thing clear: A critical component of fighting a pandemic such as COVID-19 is clear, consistent, science-based information that is communicated through a trusted and respected source. When people are worried about their health, they want information from the person in a white lab coat.

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Given the gravity of current circumstances there is no risk of sounding melodramatic, so I would add a second requirement for effectively combating the coronavirushumanity.You know basic humanity when you see it: Its the sense of community and social trust engendered by natural empathy.

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Egypt

Turkey

Middle East and North Africa

Coronavirus

There is a short supply around the world of both competent expertise and genuine sense of the common good. The United States is certainly not exempt from the shortage. But the problem is acute across the Middle East, North Africa, and Turkey. The entire region is experiencing a wave of coronavirus cases, but the official numbers from government health ministries do not offer a clear picture of the problem, either because they do not know or because they are lying about the extent of infections. Among the hardest-hit countries is Qatar, with one of the worlds worst outbreaks per capita. At least the Qataris have money to throw at the problem. Not so Egypt or Algeria or Tunisia. There is precious little data on testing, but one can safely assume that whatever has been done pales in comparison to what is necessary.

Much of this stems from incompetence, complacency, and lack of basic decency among the regions leaders, which has led to a deadly breakdown of social trust. I am not suggesting that Iraqis, Egyptians, Palestinians, Turks, Saudis, and others lack the capacity to empathize with their fellow citizens. Rather, the disdain their leaders have for the societies they oversee has robbed them of social cohesion, necessarily rendering it harder to survive and recover at a time of crisis.This is a recipe for the kind of disaster in the Middle East that boggles the mind.

Before moving on, let me stipulate for any critics in the Middle East my belief that U.S. President Donald Trumps administrations response to the coronavirus pandemic has been nothing less than appalling and profoundly irresponsible.Both Trump and Vice President Mike Pence have proved themselves to be the least credible voices on the crisis, both failing to reassure anyone that the U.S. government under their leadership could manage the situation and, in the process, putting people in harms way. History will render judgment on their contribution to the collapse of trust in the United States institutions of government, the press, and science, and its impact on the many Americans who might have remained healthy but were instead infected and died.

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That stipulated, lets turn back to the Middle East. Who among the current crop of leaders of major Middle Eastern countries can people turn to for clear, dispassionate, fact-based information? Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi? Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan? Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman?These are strongmen who command significant amounts of resources, but they are hardly the strong leaders that people need now. There is no evidence that they are more prepared to offer their citizens any more than the obfuscation and misdirection that the White House has for Americans, though with likely direr consequences. Perhaps Middle Eastern leaders will rise to the occasion. One can only hope, but the track record suggests disaster compounded by arrogance, incompetence, and brutality.

Egypt is the most worrisome in the coronavirus crisis.The country is huge, its population having recently surpassed 100 million, with nearly one-quarter of those people in greater Cairo. How do Egyptians practice social distancing in such a megalopolis, especially in its poorer districts?Egypts public health infrastructure is fragile at best, and the private sector is not well-positioned to fill in the gaps by issuing guidelines or helping to organize testing, as it has done in the United States. On top of these challenges is the very fact that the Egyptian leaderships first inclination is to lie. They are most certainly lying about the rate of coronavirus infectionas of Monday, Sisis government would have people believe that Egypt has 166 cases of COVID-19 and four deaths. Modelers at the University of Toronto indicate that it could be closer to 20,000, and Sisi and his advisers no doubt understand that figure to be far more plausible.

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The Egyptian leadership has nevertheless stuck with the message of an ostensibly small number of infections, downplaying the extent of the crisis for fear of harming the tourism industry. After years of decline following the uprising that overthrew then President Hosni Mubarak, the 2015 bombing of a Russian airliner over the Sinai Peninsula, and the disappearance of an EgyptAir flight over the Mediterranean in 2016, last year was a banner year for visitors to Egypt.The authorities in Cairo want to maintain the momentum and keep the dollars flowing, sojust like the U.S. presidentthey have been emphasizing that COVID-19 is just like a cold that most people get over relatively quickly. Of course, this conveniently overlooks the fact that the crew and foreign passengers on a now-infamous Nile riverboat, the MSASara,have all been quarantined and that infections in a number of countries, including the United States, Canada, Greece, and France,can be traced back to tourist travel in Egypt.

Even the Egyptians could not willfully ignore reality forever, so they instituted some half-measures, including permitting the suspension of Friday prayer at mosques, curtailing organized tours in Luxor, cutting back on cultural events, and closing universities. In an implicit recognition that the country is sitting on top of a COVID-19 bomb, Sisi has directed $6 billiona significant sum for Egyptto respond to the outbreak.They are so far behind, however, that even if the authorities ramp up testing, any hope of containment is long gone. When the wave of infections hits Egypt, as it inevitably will, Sisi is unlikely to be the kind of figure that can calm an anxious nation and stem the resulting instability that will threaten the region and Europe. He is no longer the savior of July 3, 2013, who rescued the country from the abyss, who elicits the loyalty of the citizenry. Instead, he is already widely seen by many of his own people as brutal, unwise, and dishonest.

Although Egypt is most worrisome, Turkey is only better off because it has a functioning health care system and good public health infrastructure.This is a credit to the ruling Justice and Development Party. But Erdogans government has been lying to the Turks and has only recently taken half-measures to prevent the spread of the disease. Why, one might ask, given the situation in the EU, did the government go forward with mass gatherings such as Friday prayers last week? The message from imams was reportedly focused on the importance of social distancing, but the damage was done. Turkeys infection rate will undoubtedly spike; nevertheless, in the absence of widespread testing, Turkish business leaders are still encouraging people to visit malls and shop.Through the early phases of the pandemic, Erdogan, who has otherwise involved himself in every facet of public life both large and small, remained silent. This is a man more worried about taking the blame for the illnesses and deaths to come than the health and safety of his people.When the need for drastic public health measures becomes impossible to ignore, there is no telling how the public will react.

If the scene in Cairo a few weeks ago, in which hundreds tried to storm the Central Public Health Laboratories to obtain a coronavirus test, is any indication of what might come, countries in the region are in serious trouble. Marked by political and social systems that are rigged so that all the benefits flow to the wealthy and connectednot unlike the United States, but more pronounced and brutaltesting, health care, and basic needs will be distributed unevenly, and will further erode trust and radicalize societies in a variety of ways. Does anyone believe that Saudi elites will wait in line for coronavirus tests? No. The wealthy will hoard what they can before fleeing, leaving the rest to fend for themselves and face the tear gas and water cannons of the riot police. What about the armies of Bangladeshi, Indian, Pakistani, and Filipino guest workers throughout the Persian Gulf? They will be a black hole of coronavirus infections. They have little, if any, protections in the societies that cannot run without them, but they have power in numbers. The many dimensions of this virus and how it can upend already fragile societies are truly frightening.

Sisi and Erdogan are not unique, just illustrative of the added layer of complications that people in the Middle East face as they confront the coronavirus pandemic.The utter disdain the leaders harbor for their people and the related brutality with which many Middle Easterners have been treated has underminedindividually and collectivelythe basic humanity, in the form of basic community, necessary for people to cope and survive. What kind of governments beat people who are desperate for a test that will be the difference between the ability to feed their families and not? What kind of system destroys much of its scientific community on the basis of guilt by association, conspiracy theories, and the political needs of a dear leader? Who would dare speak out publicly and offer another way in a place where a capricious ruler has deemed only his ideas about society are good? There are no societal backstops in these places, leaving people on their own to grapple with fear, stress, resignation, illness, and possible death.

If we have learned anything from this global health crisis, it is that there are no borders, no nationalisms, no differences to the way coronavirus ravages the human respiratory system.There are only differences in the quality of leadership, and the resulting senses of humanity in the nations they oversee.The Middle Eastlike the United Statesis failing on both fronts.

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Sisi and Erdogan Are Partners With the Coronavirus Pandemic - Council on Foreign Relations

Although Turkey appears to have stepped back from a direct confrontation with Greece over the thousands of migrants trying to pass through the latters border, the last month has been extremely challenging for the Greek state. Since February 28, when Turkey announced it would no longer stop those wishing to go to Europe, thousands of people have attempted to break through the E.U.s easternmost border, Greece.

Up until twelve days ago, the Greek forces were repelling this invasion alone. Invasion may not be everyones choice of word, but that is exactly what it is. The migrants camped at the border did not set off on their own. They were implicitly instructed to go there by Turkeys president and, in many cases, were even bused to the region by the state.

This has been a coordinated and spiteful agenda on behalf of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan payback to a Europe that has refused to cower to his demands.

Although the E.U. has now sent some of its human resources to the region, its original response was unimpressive. One would have expected it to leap to the defense of its most vulnerable borders, immediately dispatching military personal from each of the 27 member states to the eastern Mediterranean. Instead, its leaders praised Greece for being Europes shield and promised to send it another 100 members of the European Border and Coast Guard Agency.

Even so, it is a pitiable contribution when one considers that Turkey swiftly dispatched an additional 1000 Special Forces to the same area to prevent migrants from being repelled by the Greek army from re-entering Turkey.

The images coming out of the region have not always been flattering.

Greek border guards have been under enormous pressure firing teargas and using water cannons to push back people trying to cut through the wire. They have also had to contend with Turkish troops firing teargas back at them or attempting to pull down the border fence. Erdogan has compared Greek actions to the barbarism of Nazis in World War II an interesting claim considering Greece suffered three and a half brutal years of Nazi occupation while Turkey did not.

Greece needs much more than flattering metaphors and tokenistic gestures of a few hundred personnel in the face of 25,000 desperate and determined migrants at its frontier. Even a few hundred soldiers from each member state would have sent a powerful message to Erdogan, who has no doubt been enjoying all the chaos he unleashed after having duped hundreds of thousands of migrants into believing Europes border was open for all.

A more immediate and substantial response would have told him that on issues of sovereignty the E.U. stands together and will not be threatened by despots prone to throwing tantrums. This is an opportunity for the bloc to demonstrate that it actually stands for something. So far, it has only reinforced the rationale behind Brexit that is, of an E.U. that is inept, dysfunctional, and failing.

Erdogan has repeatedly proven that he does not share the same values as the West.He does not speak, and refuses to learn, the language of their secular, liberal democratic politics. This is also the reason he has incarcerated thousands of his countrymen, journalists, politicians, and average Turks.

For years he has threatened Greece and Cyprus while the E.U.s political elite has essentially watched from afar, hoping that it would all just go away. E.U. heads of state have occasionally come out in shows of solidarity towards Greece and Cyprus, imposing sanctions and supposedly reprimanding Turkey for its unending belligerence in the eastern Mediterranean.

However, none of these has proven effective or sincere. For months Erdogan has been threatening to flood Europe with refugees, even former ISIS fighters. The floodgates have finally been opened, and Greece has effectively been left to drown. Its Aegean islands, part of its main export, have been turned into squalid internment camps for thousands of people from the Middle East, Africa, and the subcontinent, thus destroying the locals income source tourism.

This has unfortunately resulted in the emergence of certain hothead vigilantes who are beginning to take matters into their own hands. Erdogan knows that the pressure is taking its toll on Greece and is banking on some disastrous Greek blunder that will vindicate him. In the meantime, he continues to blackmail the bloc. It either supports his Syrian peace missions or the migrants keep on coming.

By procrastinating, the E.U. has further solidified discord on the edges of its ailing experiment. It may not be immediately obvious to the average observer, but for years now there has been a growing resentment amongst Greeks towards the European Union.

Ask the average person and they will tell you they have never really felt European.That Greece has never been viewed as an equal partner but rather a liability on the impoverished southern fringes of the E.U.; a buffer, or Plan B, for when the Turkish buffer fails.

With the Turkish buffer now down and the Greek one at risk of collapsing, Europe is confronted with the very real prospect of being swamped, this time, with millions of people who desperately want to go to Germany, the Netherlands, Finland, Sweden, and other affluent and quiet northern European states. Those who think this cannot happen should think twice.

Erdogan has been cornered and his ego badly bruised.His approval ratings are down, and many Turks have had enough of his escapades.He is, however, far too conceited to let this issue just quietly peter out.This is not over.One way or another, Europe will pay dearly for messing with the Sultan.

Continued here:
EU, Turkey, and Migrants: One Way or Another Europe Will Pay Dearly - The Globe Post

The criticisms began in August last year, soon after the Indian government announced new constitutional and administrative arrangements in Jammu and Kashmir. Irans Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei called on India to follow a just policy" towards the noble" people of Kashmir. The Iranian criticism became more strident after the communal violence in Delhi in February. Khamenei condemned the massacre" of Indian Muslims, and called on the government to control extremist Hindus and their parties" and avoid Indias isolation from the world of Islam".

Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan also criticized the massacres" of Indian Muslims. Separately, he saw the struggle" of the Kashmiri people as comparable to the Turks own struggle against foreign domination in World War I. In his remarks at the UN General Assembly in September last year, Malaysias former prime minister Mahathir Mohamad accused India of invading and occupying the country" of Jammu and Kashmir. Later, in December, he criticized the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) for depriving Muslims in India of their citizenship.

In response to the censures from Turkey and Malaysia, India has taken quick retaliatory action. The government has said that it will cut imports of oil and steel from Turkey, and has placed imports of palm oil from Malaysia on the restricted" list, thus curtailing imports of 4.4 million tonnes of Malaysias major export item.

These brickbats from Muslim leaders contradict the massive efforts made by Prime Minister Narendra Modi personally to cultivate ties with the Islamic world. In his high profile outreach to Islamic nations, Modi has always had domestic interests in mind. Affirming this, last December, when there were protests across India against the CAA, Modi had said: Congress feels if the worlds Muslim countries love Modi so much, how will we create fear about him among Indian Muslims."

The Kuala Lumpur summit

These interventions in what India sees as its domestic concerns reflect significant shifts in the Muslim worlddoctrinal and politicalthat have brought these countries, along with Qatar (that has not joined the anti-India chorus), into an alignment founded on Islamist affinity. This could upend existing equations of power and influence in West Asia and the Islamic realm.

The nascent connectivity between these four nations was publicly proclaimed at the Muslim 5 Summit", convened in Kuala Lumpur by the then prime minister Mahathir Mohamad on 19-21 December last year. Mahathir had initially envisaged a five-nation Islamic summit that would bring together Malaysia, Turkey, Qatar, Pakistan and Indonesia.

This initiative was viewed as a rival to the Saudi-led Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC). Hence, the summit lost two of its founders"Pakistan and Indonesia: Pakistan was pressurised by Saudi Arabia not to attend, and Indonesia declined the invitation for fear of alienating the kingdom. Malaysia then invited Iran to fill the gap.

Mohamad, 94 years old and prime minister after a long gap, shaped the summit to promote his vision of a rejuvenated, modern and successful Muslim civilization that would overcome its backwardness, extremism, and internecine conflicts that have exposed it to western machinations.

The Kuala Lumpur summit reflects a clear schism at the heart of the Muslim world, with these four countries Turkey, Iran, Qatar and Malaysiauniting against the Saudi-led Islamic order that has defined Muslim affairs over the last several decades. The thread binding the four nations is their affiliation with Islamism, and specifically its most influential organization, the Muslim Brotherhood.

The bond of Islamism

Islamism" describes the efforts of a political movement to influence and ultimately shape government and society on the basis of the rules and traditions of Islam. While its adherents derive these ideas and principles from pristine Islam dating back to the holy prophet, there is no consensus among Muslim scholars and movements about the meaning and application of such principles in modern times.

Today, Islamism has three expressions: one, Wahhabiyya in Saudi Arabia that provides the monarch with full authority in the political area, giving him responsibility for his peoples security and welfare in return for their loyalty and obedience.

The second expression is jihad, where its adherents believe that Islam and the Muslim community are under attack from the West (in alliance with regional leaders) and hence they have divine sanction to resort to violence to defend their faith.

The third expression finds in principles of pristine Islam the sanction for grassroots politics that enjoins pluralism, human rights and liberties, constitution-based democratic systems, and flexibility in the understanding and application of Shariah, alongside acceptance of secular laws.

The Muslim Brotherhood, set up in Egypt in 1928, is the first modern Islamist movement. Concerned about the cultural encroachments of western materialism and secularism, it advocated a return to Islam". By the end of the last century, its scholars had derived the principles of democratic governance from Islamic norms, calling for a national constitution, parties, free elections, responsible government, and rights of citizens. These principles have never been implemented fully in any Arab polity due to the pervasive authoritarian order.

The Saudi view

Today, in West Asia, the Muslim Brotherhood is most influential in Turkey and Qatar, while it has been declared a terrorist" organization by Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Egypt. Egypts military dictatorship overthrew the democratically-elected Brotherhood government in a coup detat in 2013.

Saudi Arabia and the UAE view the Brotherhood as their principal threat; they fear that the activist democratic politics advocated by it could be more alluring to their young population than their 19th century ruler-led paternalism that provides no scope for popular participation in governance.

Saudi Arabias Wahhabi doctrine is firmly anchored in Islam; this has legitimized its guardianship" of Islams holy cities of Mecca and Madinah and given it a natural claim to lead the Muslim world in doctrinal and political areas. It has solidified support for itself across the Muslim realm through a network of well-funded institutions, domestic and transnational. The most important among them is the OIC. Set up in 1969, headquartered at Jeddah and largely funded from Saudi coffers, this 57-member conclave of Muslim nations serves to garner support for its positions against challenges from other Muslim countries.

In recent years, ties between India and the Gulf sheikhdoms have expanded exponentially due to: very significant Indian demand for the regions oil and gas; the substantial trade and investment ties, and the presence of the eight million-strong Indian community. These ties have been strengthened with Prime Minister Modis frequent interactions with the leaders of the UAE and Saudi Arabia, with the two countries promising to invest $70 billion and $100 billion, respectively, in India.

Besides energy and economic considerations, they also see India as a partner in the battle against extremism. Hence, taking a pragmatic approach, they did not join other Muslim nations in criticizing India in response to recent domestic developments; they probably also hope that Indias ties with them could over time dilute its links with Iran.

While the kingdom is confronting a strategic challenge from Iran in its geographical space, the bigger threat it faces is to its leadership of the Muslim ummah (community) from the emerging Islamist alignment of Turkey, Qatar and Iran.

Brotherhood affiliation

Turkey under Erdogan has substantially severed its ties with its Kemalist secular order. What we witness now is a Brotherhood-influenced Islamic nationalism", an approach that combines backing for Islamism with aspirations to revive Ottoman power and influence and ultimately replace Saudi Arabia as the leader of the Muslim world.

Iran describes its revolution as Islamic", but its neighbours and its own constitution view it as Shia. Iran has repeatedly sought to overcome this stigma by reaching out to Sunni Islamism as represented by the Brotherhood. During former president Mohammed Morsis short reign in Egypt, the two Islamist nations attempted to bridge the sectarian divide with the over-arching doctrinal and political affiliations they share. After Morsis fall, Irans leaders have communicated with Brotherhood leaders in exile to build an anti-Saudi front.

Qatar has for long been an outlier in the family of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) sheikhdoms, mainly on account of its backing for the Brotherhood and its advocacy of normal ties with Iran. Islamist advocacy is at the heart of its foreign policy. This has fed the paranoia in the Gulf relating to the threat from the Brotherhood and led to Saudi Arabia, allied with the UAE, Bahrain and Egypt, initiating in June 2017 the siege" of Qatar, a comprehensive political, economic and logistical blockade of the tiny peninsula nation.

This seems to have been a miscalculation, since Turkey and Iran rushed to Qatars assistance.

Meanwhile, Turkeys ties with Iran are more complex. Though divided by the sectarian cleavage, they are today brought together by shared doctrinal and political interests.

The Prognosis

After the departure of Mahathir Mohamad, even if Malaysia becomes more low-key in Islamic matters, the alignment of Turkey, Iran and Qatar on Islamist basis is a major development in regional politics. Given that it is being shaped at a time when the regional scenario is divided and conflictual and the global order uncertain, it is difficult to forecast the assured resilience of the grouping and its effectiveness in regional affairs.

With this caveat, the following prognosis is offered:

One, the triumvirate will offer a serious challenge to Saudi leadership of the Muslim realm. This has largely been facilitated by Saudi Arabias own recent self-goals: the futile war in Yemen; the siege of Qatar; the murder of Jamal Khashoggi, and the arrest, incarceration and mistreatment of royal family members in November 2017, followed by the detention of other senior royals this month to pave the way for the crown prince to ascend the throne. These developments, coupled with the crown princes close ties with USPresident Donald Trump and Israel have discredited the kingdom and its crown prince and called into question their fitness to lead the Islamic ummah.

Two, while the unity of the nascent alignment will face serious tests, the three partners will make every effort to make it work. Their ideological commitment to Islamism is that of true believers rather than that of pragmatics or opportunists. They are also joined together by their visceral hostility towards Saudi Arabia.

Three, while Qatar will seek to maintain close ties with the US, the other two partners see a far greater strategic affinity and clarity of purpose with Russia. Again, China, with its Belt and Road Initiative, is also deeply interested in regional stability and, in time, could abandon its caution in regional affairs in favour of a more proactive approach to regional security, in tandem with Turkey and Iran. This will facilitate the shaping of a new global order.

What does this mean for India? As long as Modis government pursues its current domestic agenda, the criticism will remain strident. Modis ability to bank on the silence" of his Muslim friendsSaudi Arabia and the UAEto flaunt his links with the Islamic world will get further diluted, as will his leadership persona globally. In fact, if the communal divide widens at home, India may find that the list of its friends has got much smaller.

Thus, India, that has so far viewed itself as a global role-player and shaper of the new world order, may find its influence confined to the borders of Bharat Mata.

The author is the former Indian ambassador to Saudi Arabia, Oman and the UAE

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Diplomatic challenges from the Muslim world - Livemint