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The government of President Recep Tayyip Erdoan used unsubstantiated allegations made by a jailed felon who was convicted in two separate cases of child rape and sexual molestation including one that involved his daughter in order to lend fuel to false claims against its major critic, the Glen movement, in Turkey.

According to a cache of secret documents obtained by Nordic Monitor, the government used a statement made from jail by 49-year-old Davut afak, who was convicted of the sexual molestation of minors, in order to help build criminal investigations into a number of people including prosecutors, judges and others.

From his prison cell, afak leveled a number of accusations against prosecutors, judges and private citizens who were alleged to have been associated with the Glen movement. Without presenting any supporting evidence, he claimed all the charges that led to his convictions including statements from his victims were part of a plot orchestrated by people linked to the movement.

Although letters afakhad previously written were deemed unsubstantiated and dismissed by authorities years ago, a new letter sent in March 2017 to the nebolu Public Prosecutors Office in the Black Sea region was treated as if it were evidence. It led to a series of investigations into people named in the letter even though afakwas known to be a habitual liar, as his record showed. The paper trail indicates that the authorities treated complaints selectively depending on the person named in them, with peopleseen as supporters of Erdoan facing no scrutiny.

Graphic account of the sexual molestation of a minor by Davut afak detailed in judicial council ruling:

On the other hand, the letter with the false allegations was entered as evidence in criminal investigations being pursued against people who were seen as associated with the Glen movement, an outspoken dissident group that is critical of the Erdogan government on a range of issues from pervasive corruption to Turkeys arming and funding of radical jihadist groups. The movements leader, Fethullah Glen, who has been residing in the US since 1999, has been viciously targeted by the Erdoan government in an unprecedented defamation campaign, slapped with dozens of false criminal cases and demonized for standing up against the Erdoan governments political Islamist ideology.

According to the secret documents, afak, after sending the letter, was taken from his cell to the communications room in mraniye Prison to give a formal statement via teleconference to Turkish prosecutor Mustafa zey on March 27, 2017. He rehashed the accusations, throwing out many names and claiming that he was framed by the judges and prosecutors who investigated and tried his rape cases. Eager to shore up the ongoing cases against Glen and his followers, the prosecutor took the complaint seriously until it fell apart on the lack of any evidence to support the far-fetched claims of a repeat sexual offender being framed.

Secret police and prosecutors documents that treated the false allegations of a rapist as if they were real evidence:Davut_Safak3

According to court papers, afak was accused in 1999 of raping and sexually molesting two girls in a public school in the village of Isrganlk, located some 20 kilometers from the town of Bozkurt in Kastamonu province. He was a teacher with the authority of a principal in a small school in the village. When the incident was publicized, it created outrage in the community, and the locals were up in arms. The Ministry of Education had to send investigators from Ankara to launch an administrative probe, while Turkish prosecutor Erhan nsal in the town of Bozkurt summoned afakto give a statement. He was later referred to the court by the prosecutor, who demanded his arrest at the arraignment. The judge ruled to put him in jail pending trial.

His victims, two girls named E.C. and P. ., testified against him, detailing how he molested them. Our teacher locked us up in the principals office under the pretext of studying, stripped off our clothes and penetrated with his penis from the back and the front, the victims said in their statements and testified to that effect during the trial heard by a court in Inebolu under case file No. 2000/41. The families of the children also testified against him. In the end, afak was convicted and sent to prison on February 13, 2001. He requested a new trial, but Judge Metin zelik rejected his appeal in case No. 2014/23, stating that no new evidence had emerged that warranted a new trial.

The court papers also show that afak was involved in another case of sexual molestation, this time involving his own daughter, S.., and was tried at the Istanbul 6th High Criminal Court as part case file No. 2009/355.

Following afaks allegations that he was framed and that the victims were prepped by Glenists, prosecutor zey again took the statements of the victims, years after they were traumatized. In the summary of proceedings filed on June 9, 2017 zey stated that victim E.C., now an adult, repeated the same accusations, stood by the statement she gave two decades ago and denied the allegation that she was led by others to level sexual molestation charges. The prosecutor also added that he obtained statements from others named by afak as his witnesses to collaborate his account, but that all the witnesses said they had no solid information or observations to corroborate afaks allegations. The requests to obtain the testimony of other victims and witnesses in the sexual molestation cases were referred to prosecutors in the provinces in which they were living.

Secret summary of proceedings drafted by Turkish prosecutor zey, who found no corroborating evidence to support afaks allegations:

zey sent the case file with his findings to the Kastamonu Chief Public Prosecutors Office, which has jurisdiction in such matters. On December 7, 2017 prosecutor Uur zcan in the Kastamonu office decided to drop the investigation based on the preliminary investigation and decided to not launch a public case.

Prosecutor zeys letter to the Ankara Chief Public Prosecutors Office, sending the case file there for further investigation into the people named by afak.

Secret document that shows Kastamonu prosecutor Uur zcan decided to drop the investigation into allegations that were raised in the false complaint:

afak was not satisfied. He went ahead and challenged the prosecutors decision to drop the probe in Kastamonu by filing a motion with a judge in a penal court in the province on January 10, 2018. However, Judge Emel Afan nal ruled on January 16 that afaks motion was without merit, rejected the challenge and sided with prosecutor zeys ruling.

Secret document that shows Judge Emel Afan nal rejected afaks motion to challenge the prosecutors decision to not prosecute:

At the same, however, prosecutor zcan sent afaks false complaint as evidence that would be included in unrelated and separate cases pursued against people who were affiliated with the Glen movement. He asked the Ankara Police Departments counterterrorism unit to take the information and also asked the police to forward afaks complaint to the offices of other prosecutors in various provinces where people named in the complaint resided.

In a secret memo the Directorate for General Security (Emniyet) in Ankara distributed the letter to police departments in 21 provinces, asking them to investigate the people named in afaks letter. A copy was forwarded to the intelligence and organized crime units. The police departments acted on the letter and used it as evidence to pursue movement members.

The Directorate for General Securitys secret memo ordering 21 provinces toinvestigatepeople named in afaks letter:

For example, the Antalya Police Department investigated two people named in afaks letter who were resident in the province and sent their file to the prosecutors office on May 4, 2018. Based on the police report, prosecutor Ahmet Grbz launched a criminal investigation into these people the next day.

The selective approach of using false testimony as evidence in some cases and not in others was also employed by the Board of Judges and Prosecutors (HSK) with respect to judges and prosecutors who were accused by afak. In the Code on Criminal Procedure, the investigation of judges and prosecutors can only be done by the HSK.

On December 11, 2019 the First Chamber of the HSK ruled to recommend the rejection of the complaint filed against then-Inebolu High Court judges Murat Kzlyar, Turul Hanerkran, Mehmet Serta Kesler and Metin zelik and prosecutors Ertan nsal, Ali elik and zkan Gltekin. The HSK members concluded that no evidence was presented to support afaks allegations against the judges and prosecutors and noted that members of the judiciary in the province had complied with the law in prosecuting and trying the case of the child molester and found no evidence of abuse of power.

The HSK ruling that rejected allegations raised by Davut afak:

Yet, with respect to some of the judges and prosecutors who were profiled as not supportive of the Erdoan government and as such dismissed and/or jailed a year before afak brought his complaint, the HSK members said they were already being punished in terrorism cases. Judge Kzlyar, who was the investigating judge at the Supreme Court of Appeals, Judge Hanerkran, who was assigned to a court in Gaziantep, and Judge zelik, who was overseeing a court in Istanbul, were all dismissed without any effective administrative or judicial probe.

Likewise, Ordu prosecutor Gltekin was also purged along with more than 4,000 judges and prosecutors in 2016. It turned out the independent judges and prosecutors were already flagged in 2014 when they ran against a government-backed list for a seat on the HSK. zelik was imprisoned in 2015 when he ruled against the government in a criminal case, and the others were dismissed and/or jailed in 2016 after a failed coup on July 15, 2016.

afaks petition filed from prison named 15 people, including judges, prosecutors, a governor and attorneys as interfering in his criminal case:

In the early years of his prosecution, afak had tried to enlist the help of the Glen movement to secure his release from prison according to his own account. He had worked in schools run by the group for several years before leaving the movement and starting to work for the government. But nobody in the Glen group responded positively to his overtures and stayed away from him. Then he started filing false complaints against prosecutor nsal, who indicted him, and prosecutor Cengiz zlk, who was responsible for the prison where he was incarcerated, claiming that they were all Glenists. He was slapped with another indictment for leveling false complaints without any evidence, convicted on charges of defaming public officials and sentenced to six months in prison.

After he was released pending trial at the end of 2003, afakwrote another letter, this time to the State Security Court (Devlet Gvenlik Mahkemeleri, or DGM), claiming that he knew the killers of Necip Hablemitolu, an academic who was murdered on December 18, 2002 in front of his home. The perpetrators were never found. The DGM asked the local prosecutor to take afaks statement, but he refused to give one as long as he was in jail. He promised he would talk after his release but refused to give a statement for a second time after he was let go pending trial on rape and molestation charges. When his conviction was upheld, he was sent back to prison to serve out his sentence.

Years later, in a 2017 statement afakclaimed that Glenists were behind the murder and said he overheard such talk by chance from people whom he claimed were close to the movement. Again, no evidence was presented to support his allegations, which seemed to have been designed to attract the interest of the government media. In fact, several media outlets jumped on the bandwagon, covering his allegations but excluding his sexual rape convictions. For example, the Sabah daily, owned by the family of President Erdoan, claimed on March 2, 2018, that Glen gave the order to kill Hablemitolu and cited afaks letter as evidence, but the story deliberately omitted why afak was jailed in the first place. Undermining their credibility, Erdoan-controlled media outlets also ignored the fact that afaks allegations were refuted by both the prosecutors office and the HSK.

Hablemitolus murder was believed to have been the work of what Turks call the deep state, a clandestine group within the states military and security institutions that engages in illegal activities with impunity including extrajudicial killings. One of the suspects was far-right militant brahim ifti, who was described as the mastermind behind the academics assassination. ifti was killed in October 2006 when a hand grenade was thrown at a cafe belonging to him in the Alsancak district of zmir. The hand grenade that killed ifti had a serial number matching four others found in an mraniye shanty house a year later when investigators were looking into gang activities in the military, police and other branches of government. All the grenades came from the same military stockpile.

ifti, a prominent figure in the far-rightNationalist Movement Party (MHP), even ran for party leadership in 1997 but was not elected. The current chairman, Devlet Baheli, won the election. ifti was also implicated in the 1978 assassination of Ankara Public Prosecutor Doan z, who was investigating suspicious activities of groups secreted within the military. He had found out that the Counter-Guerrilla organization was affiliated with the General Staffs department of war, which was later renamed the Tactical Mobilization Group.

The prosecutor was planning to file a case against the officials of the General Staffs department of war. However, two months after he presented the report to then-Prime Minister Bulent Ecevit, he was assassinated when he was about to get into his car in front of his house, on March 24, 1978. The description of the gunman matched that of ifti, whose gun was later found to have been involved in another murder.

ifti confessed to having killed z and gave up his accomplices. A murder case was filed on December 26, 1978, and ifti stood trial, with the prosecutor demanding the death penalty. The case was referred to an Ankara military court after the September 12, 1980 coup dtat. The court sentenced him to death because he confessed to having committed the murder. The higher court overturned the ruling, and then the court insisted on the initial ruling. However, the Military Supreme Court of Appeals overturned each of the rulings. The Ankara court said in its final verdict that although it established that ifti had deliberately killed z, the court had to abide by the ruling of the Military Supreme Court of Appeals and ruled for his acquittal.

It later emerged that iftis lawyer, Can zbay, also the lawyer for Mehmet Ali Aca, who shot and injured Pope John Paul II in 1981, wrote a letter to then-Prime Minister Blent Ulusu and demanded iftis acquittal.

Today, based on a sexual predators disproven allegations, the Erdoan government is trying to pin Hablemitolus murder on the Glen movement in order to deflect attention from the masterminds who continue to operate with impunity. Erdoan and his allies, the MHP and the neo-nationalist Motherland (Vatan) Party, have managed to secure the release of gang leaders like Alaaddin akc, who was also used by the deep state to commit dozens of murders on behalf of the state.

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Erdoan gov't used allegations of jailed child molester to level false charges against critics - Nordic Research and Monitoring Network

Turkey will not bow down to the IMF program, or any imposition that would indebt our country, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoan said in his address to the nation after the cabinet meeting on Monday.

Donations to the National Solidarity Campaign, which Erdoan personally announced and donations from public employees were collected under an opt-out system, have surpassed 1.612 billion liras (~$240 million), the president announced, adding that private banks did not do well in this test.

The "We are enough for each other" campaign, to which Erdoan donated seven months of his presidential salary, "is a voluntary campaign, he said.

Erdoan also announced a new weekend curfew between midnight April 17 and midnight April 19, and said weekend curfews could continue if deemed necessary. Our goal was to protect millions of our people from the danger of the virus, Erdoan said. The negative events of Friday night, even though it was clearly stated that the curfew would only cover Saturday and Sunday, do not annul this fact.

Turkey has close to 50 ICU beds per 100,000 population, while the European average lags behind at 12, and Germany, with the highest number, has fewer than 30, Erdoan said.

Efforts continue for two 1,000-bed hospitals in Yeilky and Sancaktepe airport grounds, and construction will begin for new hospitals in Istanbul with a total of 350-bed capacity, he added.

The city hospital in Baakehir, a conservative suburban district in Istanbul, will be partially opened on April 20, and will be fully operational by May 15, Erdoan said, with 456 ICU beds to be made available.

Turkey has sent medical equipment and support to 34 countries, he added, and will continue to share what we have with all our friends.

More than 32 million people have received codes for free masks they can redeem at pharmacies, seven million more will receive codes until Thursday, Erdoan said.Daily testing has reached 34,406, placing Turkey high in global rankings. More than 410,000 tests have been conducted to date.

International organisations and the WHO have pointed to Turkey as an example in the fight against the coronavirus, Erdoan said, adding that Turkeytriesto respond to the needs of "all countries that ask for our support, not just our own citizens."

If you can feel pain, you are alive. If you can feel others pain, you are human.We share what we have with all our friends, as per this motto. We have delivered medical equipment to 34 countries to date. We also thank our friends who supported our country for medicine, raw materials for medicine, and medical equipment," he continued.

Turkey updates pandemic measures constantly, in light of assessments by the scientific committee and public institutions, Erdoan said.

"We will take necessary precautions to avoid a repeat of the unnecessary chaos experienced in the first hours the curfew was announced. Our goal was to protect from the danger of the virus millions of our people who would, falling for the lure of the good weather, fill up streets, parks, picnic grounds and beaches overthe weekend. The negative events of Friday night, even though it was clearly stated that the curfew would only cover Saturday and Sunday, do not annul this fact."

Erdogan also addressed his rejection of the resignation of the Interior Minister Suleyman Soylu on Sunday;

"We appreciated the sensibility of our interior minister in taking responsibility for the matter. But we have not accepted his resignation, and asked him to continue with his duties. Our minister, whose success in the fight against terrorism, efforts after natural disasters, and most recently keeping the public order during the coronavirus pandemic I have witnessed closely, continues with his duties."

Erdoan also thanked Devlet Baheli, the president of the National Movement Party(MHP) which is part of the governing Cumhur alliance, for his support during this critical time that the country is going through.

Erdoan said the cabinet, in Monday's meeting, had decided to continue with weekend curfews when necessary, as part of the fight against the pandemic. "I would like to announce to all our citizens now that there will be a curfew in place from midnight on April 17 until midnight on April 19," hesaid.

Erdoan also slammed the media for critical coverage of the government's handling of the coronavirus spread:

"Certain media institutions have used this incident and pandemic measures in general as an excuse, and virtually declared war on their own country with their articles and columnists, like they have always done. Instead of contributing to our countrys fight in this critical time, they have all constantly spewed hate with lies or wrongful information, which is a sign of a more dire disease than the coronavirus."

Erdoan stated that there were few countries in the world that had been as transparent as Turkey regarding both the level of contagion and what measures hadbeen taken. "Those trying to disrupt this transparency with questions like, 'Are the decisions being made in councils that do not have authority?'aim not to seek the truth, but to stir trouble," he said.

Some Turkish medical experts who shared critical opinions on the governments response to the outbreak or urged stricter isolation measures have faced arrest and were forced to apologise.

The Turkish Medical Association has warned that the number of cases is significantly higher than those announced by the Health Ministry, and that Turkish authorities still refuse to reveal the locations of infections or deaths, while detaining journalists who attempt to do so.

More than 300 people in Turkeyhave been detainedfor social media posts related to coronavirus.

Erdoan continued;

"This delirium by those who try to confuse our people and to darken their hearts with publications that are a product of their dark and sullied minds would not be tolerated for a single day in other countries, rest assured.

Democracy, pluralism, and the presence of many voices are not an issue in Turkey. The issue in Turkey is the abuse of democracy, ideological bigotry blinding people, and the endless tolerance to ugly voices.

Those who work night and day to demoralise our people, with their terrorist organisations, media, and political enterprises, will one day drown in their own pits of hate and division."

Those who thought they were the only owners of the country have been behind every coup, every chaos, Erdoan said.

What youve done for years is not journalism, its doom-mongering. That time is gone now. Our country will be rid of not just the coronavirus, but these media and politics viruses as well, God willing.

Erdoan accused main opposition leader Kemal Kldarolu of mythomania, saying he has no knowledge of what was happening in the world, the country or his own municipalities.

Turkey is taking precautions to protect employment, support pensioners and those who have lost their incomes, keeping small businesses and artisans afloat, and to support production, Erdoan said.

According to the president, some 4.5 million citizens have received direct payments, and workers who were not eligible for the short-term work benefits would start to receive a monthly salary of 1,170 liras ($175). Erdoan announced developments in the form of monetary support as follows:

The loans allocated to small businesses and artisans have reached 4.1 billion liras ($603.3 million), and an additional 1.5 billion liras were offered to small business owners through a bank card system. The Credit Guarantee Fund-backed continued employment financing has received more than 66,000 applications, and close to 30 billion liras have been allocated to some 35,000 companies whose applications have finished processing.

Debts for public banks and finance institutions, some 21 billion liras ($26.3 billion), have been postponed. Car loans, mortgages and credit card payments, worth some 41 billion liras, have also been postponed. Halkbank has postponed collection of 3.5 billion liras ($4.30 billion) in loan payments for small businesses. Farmers, livestock breeders and food manufacturers will receive support as well, with the government working to make available for agriculture some land that belongs to the Treasury.

"The public has put forth all resources to support all industries, but the private banks have not done well at all during these trying times. We expect private banks to do what falls on their shoulders in these difficult times our country and nation are going through," Erdoan said.

We are a country that has the necessary economic infrastructure to overcome this tumultuous time, glory to God, Erdoan said. We will not bow down to the IMF program or any imposition that would indebt our country.

With the steps we have taken and will take, we are determined to not let anybody uncared for, and to share the burden in a just manner.

Turkish people have shown a noble attitude with their support to the governments national solidarity campaign, similar to when they sacrificed in compliance with the severe measures implemented during Turkeys war of independence, Erdoan said.

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Turkey will not bow down to the IMF program - Erdoan - Ahval

The Cipher Briefs Academic Incubator program partners with colleges and Universities across the country on highlighting the next generation of national security leaders. If your program is interested in joining the Academic Incubator, which provides free Cipher Brief memberships for enrolled students and faculty, send an email to[emailprotected]

Youssef Elshamy is a Masters student in the International Security program at George Mason University. His research focuses on Middle Eastern security issues that are related to terrorist organizations, terrorist tactics, and methods ofradicalization. He is also an intern at the Counter Terrorism Group (CTG).

Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan has repeatedly expressed a grand vision of restoring his countrys power and influence to that of the Ottoman Empire era. In practical terms, this would require Turkey to become a moderating influence in Middle Eastern politicsespecially when it comes to political Islam perpetuated by dominant groups such as the Muslim Brotherhood. Moreover, it would need to be capable of reconciling the Muslim world and Europe. However, this vision is failing and will continue to fail. This failure is due to Erdogans suppression of democratic reforms, support for radical Islamism, and an aggressive foreign policy that harms the Turkish population.

Erdogans vision stems from an idealistic outlook on the grandeur of the Ottoman Empire and the extensive capacity for political engagement that it wielded. Therefore, he wants to restore the former Ottoman Empires glory, in order to achieve greater political control not just in Turkey, but also in the Middle East and Europe. Doing so would shape Turkeys relationships with the rest of the world and bolster its influence on social, political, and economic matters.

Erdogan took a number of steps to pursue his vision following his rise to power, including overseeing significant economic and religious transformations of Turkish society. From an economic perspective, Erdogan made an effort to elevate Turkeys economy through localized production, as well as improved energy, transport, and trade capacity. Regarding religion, he has extended Islamic influence by encouraging construction of multiple mosques and leaning more towards Islamism.

When Erdogan took power in 2003, Turkey was largely a secular country, but that is no longer the case seventeen years into his rule. The president and his supporters portray him as the model leader of all Muslims, escalating to the point where Erdogan now supports Islamists

particularly the Muslim Brotherhoodin countries such as Syria, Egypt, Libya, and Tunisia. He uses his influence with the Muslim Brotherhood to generate soft power, a decision that has progressively developed into a propaganda tool. For example, because of the aforementioned connections, Turkey uses Sunni religious arenas, provides scholarships to Turkish universities, and pays for heritage trips to Turkey in order to establish its influence throughout the Muslim world. These actions specifically target the Middle Eastern youth to manipulate them to serve Erdogans long-term Islamic agenda.

In addition to supporting Islamist groups abroad, under Erdogan, Turkey has become considerably more assertive in the Middle East and parts of North Africa both economically and militarily. For example, in Cyprus, Erdogan has been reluctant to decrease his control of oil and natural gas exploration. He has also placed Turkish troops in Iraq, despite the Iraqi governments objections, in a bid to uphold his brutal war against Kurds.

At the height of Syrian conflict, Erdogan allowed foreign fighters to venture across the Turkish border to support the fight against embattled Syrian President Bashas al-Assad. Erdogans adoption of hard power tactics is also evident from Turkeys establishment of military bases in Qatar and Somalia. Turkey and Qatar are unified in their support for the Muslim Brotherhood, which poses a threat to Saudi Arabia and other Persian Gulf monarchies. In Somalia, Turkey has established its military foothold under the guise of training Somali soldiers.

When the Arab Spring began, the Middle East was a horse race: states started competing with each other to exert their influence in an effort to fill the power vacuum. Erdogan placed his bet on the Muslim Brotherhood as his vehicle for hegemony in the Middle East. By supporting these Islamists, Erdogan believed that he would increase Turkeys influence in Egypt, Syria and Tunisia. The gambit has failed though, eventually limiting his influence in the Middle East and amongst secular individuals in Turkey.

Overall, Erdogans vision is failing because the combination of support for Islamist groups and Erdogans forceful foreign policy approach have created problems for Turkey with virtually all of its neighbors. The Muslim Brotherhoods unpopularity, both in the Middle East and around the globe, has hampered Turkeys influence.

As a result, Erdogans vision, while seemingly noble, is virtually unachievable. He has abandoned most democratic reforms for which he advocated when rising to the apex of Turkeys leadership. Rather, he has turned towards methodical Islamization of Turkey, destroying democratic pillars and secular values that have previously worked to the countrys advancement. Association with Islamist groups and the militarization of Turkeys foreign policy have not helped Erdogans cause either.

Erdogan is likely to continue failing as his popularity wanes both nationally and internationally. Turkeys slide into authoritarianism will set the country back in terms of democracy, civil rights and economic development. In the Middle East, Erdogan will alienate other Middle Eastern countries such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, thus creating more turmoil instead of unity. Islamization of Turkey is likely to drive the rest of Europe further away, eliminating chances of collaboration with the West.

As a result of Erdogans failure, Turkeys relations with America are likely to remain strained for the foreseeable future. In spite of these challenges, American policymakers should strive to prioritize the long-term potential of America-Turkey bilateral relations. Turkey remains a NATO member, its geographic location provides strategic importance, and its centrality to U.S. objectives in the Middle East warrant continued association. U.S. policy analysts and makers should use this sustained engagement to expand civil ties, support Turkish civil society, and use prospects of economic relations to advocate for better governance.

Erdogan desire to revive the Ottoman Empire is bound to dramatically fail. Erdogan is forcefully imposing his will on the population by subduing democratic reforms, associating with extreme Islamists, avoiding economic development, and inciting war against organizations that do not threaten the Turkish state. These actions will ultimately fail while costing Turkey an opportunity to become a world power. Although this failure might dissuade various countries from pursuing relations with Turkey, the United States should invest in continued engagement, to avail Turkish civil society of much needed guidance on democratic governance and protection of civil rights.

The Cipher Briefs Academic Partnership Programwas created to highlight the work and thought leadership of the next generation of national security leaders. If your school is interested in participating,send an email to[emailprotected].

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The Problem with Erdogan's Grand Vision - The Cipher Brief

Where does incompetence end and crime begin? asked an appalled German chancellor in the First World War on learning that his chief military commander planned to renew his bloody but futile attacks on the western front.

President Trump is showing a similar disastrous inability during the coronavirus pandemic to shift away from his well-tried tactics of claiming non-existent successes and blaming everybody for his blunders except for himself. It is his first true crisis in his three years in the White House and, like that German general, he is visibly incapable of changing the way he deals with it.

Much virtual ink has been spilled over the last three years about the ineptitude and isolationism of the Trump presidency, and how far it will erode American hegemony. The pandemic has posed the question more starkly than ever before, but it has also provided something of an answer. Crudely put, the US will not remain the one single superpower if the rest of the world sees evidence day after day that the country is run by a crackpot who cannot cope with a global calamity.

Sharing the full story, not just the headlines

More is at stake here than the future of the Trump presidency. Over the past decade, Trumpian nationalist populist leaders have taken power all around the world, and they too are being tested and found wanting. Without exception, they have shown themselves to be better at winning (or fixing) elections than they are at combating the virus. Some admit the gravity of the outbreak, but use it to enhance their power and silence their critics. Others reject social distancing and restrictive measures as unnecessary, or denounce them as a hoax cooked up by the media. What comes across in all these cases is that Trumpian regimes, for all their self-serving talk of threats, do not know what to do when there is a real threat to their nation.

In India, the Hindu nationalist prime minister, Narendra Modi, locked down his country with just four hours notice, forcing millions of jobless migrant labourers with little money or food to trek hundreds of miles to their home villages.

In Brazil, the far-right president, Jair Bolsonaro, took an opposite tack, downplaying the crisis and defying his own health ministrys appeal for social distancing by going into the street to buy doughnuts and mingle with his supporters: one film shows him wiping his nose with his wrist before shaking hands with an elderly woman.

Turkeys president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, is reluctant to do anything to stall the Turkish economy and is jailing journalists who say he is not doing enough for victims of the virus. In Hungary, the prime minister, Viktor Orban, used the pandemic as an excuse to pass a law suspending elections and enabling him to rule indefinitely by decree. The dire state of underfunded Hungarian hospitals is ignored.

What might be loosely called the Trump playbook though much of it predates Trump, and has been used by populist nationalist demagogues through history falls short when it comes to dealing effectively with a real rather than a concocted crisis. However, comforting though it would be to suppose that this would discredit leaders who pretend to be national saviours, this does not necessarily follow. In places such as Hungary, Turkey and India, the media is largely under the control of the ruling party, and news of its mismanagement of the crisis will be suppressed regardless of the toll.

Yet the pandemic is exposing the weaknesses of regimes from Washington to Delhi and Sao Paulo to Budapest. Autocracy has its disadvantages since, at the core of these governments, is a supreme leader with devoted followers who believe that he can do no wrong. Trump may have drawn back from his claim that he enjoys monarchical powers and can do without Congress, but the boast shows his authoritarian inclinations.

Crises expose the poor judgement of such dictatorial regimes, where leaders surround themselves with cheerleaders and courtiers who tell them what they want to hear. A diplomat in Baghdad once told me that among the senior lieutenants of Saddam Hussein, the only safe course was to be 10 per cent tougher than the boss. Trump may not shoot advisers who contradict him, like Saddam did, but he does sack them and shows equal intolerance towards dissenting views as the Iraqi dictator.

The Trumpian generation of leaders suffers from a further disadvantage: they come from deeply polarised countries, and are both the symptom and cause of those divisions. Minorities are persecuted: Muslims in India; Kurds in Turkey; Latin American immigrants in the US. The new authoritarians are happy to rule countries that are split down the middle, but they are finding that successfully fighting a pandemic requires a higher degree of national cohesion than they can deliver.

ER doctor blasts Trump for stopping WHO funding amid global pandemic

The pandemic will rock many of these regimes, but censorship and aggressive government PR may limit its political impact. The devastating Spanish Flu pandemic of 1918-19 only gained its name because Spain was one of the few countries that did not censor accounts of its ravages.

The coronavirus may ebb, or news of it be suppressed, but it will be impossible to hide the deep economic depression likely to follow in its wake. It was the Great Crash of 1929 that led to the rise of Hitler and the advance of communism, fuelling ever-increasing political violence in the 1930s. A post-pandemic Great Depression mark II may have a similarly explosive political effect, turning the 2020s into the same sort of troubled time in our century as the 1930s were in the last. Rival nation-states will once again confront each other and international organisations such as the UN and the EU, as with the League of Nations of old, will retreat into irrelevance. Enhanced international cooperation and integration, which once appeared to be where the world was heading, are turning out to be a mirage.

As Trump presides over the break-up of the international order and the ebb-tide of US hegemony, it is difficult to think of any historic figure that precisely resembles him. But one contender should surely be Kaiser Wilhelm II, the swaggering, opinionated German emperor with catastrophically poor judgement, who led his country to defeat in the First World War. As with Trump, he warned somewhat prematurely of the rise of China and the yellow peril. And, again like Trump, he forecast that the great crisis that he could not cope with would soon be over, promising his soldiers in 1914 that they would be home before the leaves fall.

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Trump, Erdogan, Modi, Orban, Bolsonaro populist nationalists have met their match in the coronavirus - The Independent

"We were the first to identify the expected outbreak of the pandemic. We took early measures and now we can reap the fruits," said this week Turkeys Health Minister Fahrettin Koca. But the truth is President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has long belittled the threat the coronavirus posed to Turkey, vowing to keep the country free of COVID-19.

Haredi leaders learn harsh corona lesson as Israel sends in the troopsHaaretz

As infection rates spiked across the world and Turkey seemed to be lagging behind, ridiculous theories circulated on social media claiming the Turks were immune "because of their DNA structure."

Turkey now faces a major acceleration of the outbreak, with nearly 40,000 cases, and has very little ammunition left. Measures such as turning private hospitals to coronavirus treatment facilities, housing medical teams in military camps, banning gatherings and imposing partial closures in many provinces, have failed to be effective. Turkey is currently ninth globally in rate of infections, a huge leap since the countrys first official case was announced on March 11.

Just like any other country badly hit by the coronavirus, Turkey is now forced to mitigate two worrying threats: an exponential growth in the number of cases and an economic crisis putting entire sectors at risk. Tourism, for example, made up about five percent of Turkeys gross domestic product (GDP), but has almost entirely shut down. Some 1.2 million workers in the tourism sector are at risk of losing their job.

Not only hotels, restaurants and the entertainment industry have been hit by the pandemic, but also big food companies, who rely on their income from supplying products to hotels and could go bankrupt. Two-thirds of Turkeys tourism revenues are normally generated between March and September, but the sectors activity is unlikely to resume until July, and thats according to an optimistic estimate. This has far-reaching ramifications on the Turkish economy and the states budget, which already has to support 4.5 million unemployed citizens.

About three weeks ago the government adopted a $14.5-billion aid program, including a delay value-added tax and national insurance fee collection, an increase in minimum pension payment to $249, loans under improved conditions and suspension of debt payments. But workers and business owners who lost at least a part of their income would not get any assistance beyond what the law stipulates, even though their needs are growing and prices are only going up.

Turkey has $18 billion in debts it is required to pay back within the next three months, while it also has to fund its war in Syria and cover costs related to hosting nearly four million Syrian refugees. On the bright side, there was no major coronavirus outbreak in its refugee camps or among the millions of refugees living in Turkey, many without any government supervision.

But if the virus spreads among refugees, Turkey will likely be unable to contain the outbreak on its own. It would need international medical and financial aid at time when international funds are rather resistant to provide money. A source of funding that could have helped Turkey now would be its foreign currency reserves, but it has nearly none left. In February it held only about $1.5 billion in reserve, after spending many billions to stimulate the failing Turkish lira.

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Erdogan, an economic magician who rescued Turkey from a crisis in the early 2000s and hiked up average annual growth to 7 percent for over a decade, is now required to pull new rabbits out of his hat to deal with both crises. Politically, almost nothing stops him from bringing forth any legislation or decree; the central bank may be independent, but its president unofficially reports to Erdogan. On the presidents orders, he already reduced interest rates several times to encourage loans. If the budget needs tweaking or if the budget deficit was to be wildly expanded, no political opposition would stand in the presidents way.

At the same time, it is unclear to what extent Erdogan himself or his son-in-law, Finance and Treasury Minister Berat Albayrak, are aware of the economic dangers such moves might entail. Especially when no one can tell when exactly the country will resume regular economic activity. Reports on disagreements between Albayrak, who opposed shutting down the country, and Health Minister Koca, who argues Turkey wont be able to eradicate the virus without a complete shutdown, may show that serious debates are taking place, considering all aspects of this crisis. But the final decision is made by Erdogan, who said that under all circumstances, factories and machines must continue operating.

The president has called on citizens to donate money to the fight against the coronavirus and show solidarity, unity and loyalty to the state and its policies. The pandemic, so it seems, is an excellent political opportunity for Erdogan to make it clear to the public that he is only one who can rescue them. Those unwilling to adopt this theory, still criticizing the leader, may end up in interrogation rooms or behind bars, as has already happened to several dozen citizens who dared criticizing the government on social media.

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In coronavirus crisis, Erdogan faces an opponent he cant silence - Haaretz