The Fix: The economy is voters top issue, and Democrats are winning it
The 2014 midterm election featuresplenty ofsurprises, but add this one to the mix: Voters who say the economy and health care are the biggest factors in their congressional voteare currently favoring ... the Democrats!
The latest Washington Post-ABC News poll finds the economy leading the pack as a voting issue, with 35 percent calling it their top priority.Between 10 and 15 percent each pick four other issues, including the way Washington works, health care, international conflicts and immigration.
Washington Post-ABC News poll Sept. 4-7. Results based on 888 registered voters, margin of sampling error +/- 4 points.
Voters' focus on a slowly recovering economy might not seem like something that would accrue to Democrats's benefit, yet voters who prioritize the economysay 53 percent to 40 percent thattheycurrently would support a generic Democrat over a generic Republican.
Republicans, meanwhile, winthe most support among the 12 percent of voters focused on international conflicts. They favorGOPcandidates by 22 percentage points over Democrats.Voters focused on health care,the way Washington works and immigration all splittheir votes by single digit margins which are not statistically significant.
The Democrats' focus on the economy and the GOP's focuson overseas issues actually make sense, though, since issue priorities are oftendriven by partisanship.Partisans tend to place a bigger priority on issues where they are critical ofa party orpresident they dislike. For instance, Gallup polling last month found Republicans were much moreapt to say immigration is the nation's top problem as theObama administration came under criticismfor it's handling ofunaccompanied children at the border. And in 2006, exit polling showed voters who supportedDemocrats were far more likely to prioritize the then-unpopular Iraq war.
In this light, Democrats mightfind some solace in the new Post-ABC poll, which showsRepublicans are less apt than Democrats to cite the economy and jobs as their most important issue (30 percent vs.41 percent). Republican voters arediffuse in their electoral motivations, with 19 percent focused oninternational conflicts and 15 percent choosing immigration -- both that's still more than registered voters overall.
At the very least, the lack of unity suggeststheslowly recoveringeconomy and the health care law arenot the cudgels that Republicans once wielded against Democrats.
But the diffuse GOP issues matrixbasicallyall centers around one thing:criticism of President Obama. Fully 62 percent of Republican voters sayonereason for their congressional vote will be to express opposition to Obama; just 42 percent of Democratssay they will vote in an effort to supporthim.
Unlike past elections, though, that criticism isn't really rooted inthe economy or Obamacare.
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The Fix: The economy is voters top issue, and Democrats are winning it