Jobs report: not necessarily a job-killer for Democrats facing voters
Washington When an election is just two months away, its not unusual for the state of the economy as measured by the Labor Departments monthly job numbers to be taken as an important straw in the wind.
This time around, though, headlines stating that the economy gained just 142,000 jobs in August, well below forecasters' expectations, may not represent much of a setback for Democrats seeking to retain control of the Senate.
Yes, the headline is negative about the economy and on balance, that stands to hurt the congressional-election chances of the party controlling the White House.
But several forces serve to play down the opportunity for Republicans to gain momentum on a message that Democrats have mismanaged the economy.
Polling evidence suggests the economy isnt as big a factor in this election as it was in the past few cycles. Its still the top priority, but at a lower level of intensity. The share of Americans mentioning an economic issue as the nations most important problem has dropped from 86 percent early in 2009 to 38 percent this August, according to Gallup. That leaves more room for other factors local issues, perceptions of personal character to be decisive.
Also, the American electorate is fairly hardened in its views of the political parties and their economic performance. Most people who will turn out for Nov. 4 midterm elections essentially know which party theyll be voting for.
The role of swing voters is limited. Yes, its possible that some Senate races may hinge on which way the undecided voters break, not just on which party can turn out more of its solid base. But even there, political independents were hardly feeling sanguine about the economy before Friday. So its far from clear that a disappointing month for jobs gives Republicans new leverage against Democrats.
In short, the weaknesses of the economy are now an old and familiar story for members of both parties and those in between.
Today we learned the U.S. labor force shrank by 64k ... in August and that we have the worst labor force participation rate in decades, Ed Gillespie, a Republican seeking a Virginia seat in the US Senate, said on Twitter Friday morning.
He was reminding his followers of longstanding trends.
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Jobs report: not necessarily a job-killer for Democrats facing voters