Matthew Dowd: Democrats Want to See Biden Aggressive in Vice Presidential Debate (2012
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Republican strategist Karl Rove's Crossroads GPS group is planning to spend at least $23 million in key Senate races in the final two months of the campaign. The group is a tax-exempt non-profit and is allowed to keep the names of its donors secret. Rich Pedroncelli/AP hide caption
Republican strategist Karl Rove's Crossroads GPS group is planning to spend at least $23 million in key Senate races in the final two months of the campaign. The group is a tax-exempt non-profit and is allowed to keep the names of its donors secret.
Democrats this election have done a good job attracting a lot of big donors, but Republicans appear to have the big advantage when it comes to big secret donors.
The strength of Democratic House and Senate fundraising committees and their supporting superPACs has been a surprise development this cycle, even as the Senate seems poised to flip to Republican control and the House is almost certain to remain under GOP leadership.
Now Republicans will get even more help from their big guns from the past two elections: the tax-exempt nonprofit groups Americans for Prosperity and Crossroads GPS.
Americans for Prosperity, founded by the industrialist billionaire Koch brothers, has already been running tens of millions worth of ads attacking Democratic senators in key states. Now it says it will also run ads specifically telling voters to defeat those Democrats on Nov. 4. It will not reveal how much it intends to spend, but earlier media reports suggest the group's total outlays this election could be near $300 million, although that figure includes voter registration and turnout efforts.
Crossroads GPS, co-founded by GOP operative Karl Rove, is on track to raise some $75 million this election, according to spokesman Paul Lindsay, and will spend at least $23 million of that in the final two months of the campaign in six states, including $9.5 million in Colorado alone.
Democrats and liberals, in contrast, have focused on superPACs that disclose the name of every donor who gives more than $200. Tom Steyer, the San Francisco investor and climate change activist, has given $40.9 million to his NextGen Climate Action Committee and $5 million to Senate Majority PAC, according to an NPR review of Federal Election Commission records. Former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg has donated $6.9 million to his pro-gun control Independence USA PAC and $2 million to Emily's List's Women Vote superPAC.
But in terms of groups that keep their donors secret, Patriot Majority USA and the League of Conservation Voters are the only Democratic-leaning nonprofits that have spent more than $1 million on election-related activity so far, with each reporting about $7 million in spending to the FEC.
How much these politically oriented nonprofit groups will actually raise and spend won't be known until next spring, when their annual filings to the Internal Revenue Service come due. But while those documents show how much was raised and how it was spent, the names of the donors will likely remain secret forever. That actually is the only advantage for donors there is no tax deduction or other financial benefit to giving to these groups rather than to superPACs.
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Democrats Winning Big Money, GOP Winning Big Secret Money
WASHINGTON National Democrats are scaling back on spending in House races where Democrats are challenging Republicans, but are buttressing Democrats trying to hold onto House seats, moves that could affect two relatively close races in the St. Louis area.
The net effect may be that St. Louis-area TV viewers could see fewer political ads from Illinois' 12th and 13th Districts over the next month - at least from the Democrats.
As Politico reported today, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has decided to pull October advertising dollars on St. Louis TV it had set aside for Democrat Ann Callis, who is challenging Illinois' 13th District Republican Rep. Rodney Davis, R-Taylorville. A DCCC aide estimated that about $420,000 worth of advertising intended to help Callis may now be directed into other districts. But the DCCC official pointed out that it will continue to advertise for Callis on Champaign, Ill., television for at least three weeks in October.
The DCCC, which put an estimated $1 million of advertising on St. Louis TV in September on behalf of Rep. Bill Enyart, D-Belleville, intends to expand a pro-Enyart TV buy out of Paducah, Ky., which covers the southern end of Enyart's district, according to a DCCC aide. The DCCC also currently plans to be on the air for Enyart at the two weeks before the election. Enyart faces Republican challenger Mike Bost, an Illinois state legislator, in one of the country's hardest-fought House races.
DCCC spokesman Brandon Lorenz said that "ad reservations are changing every week, and Judge Ann Callis is running an aggressive campaign in a tough climate."
National Republican Congressional Committee spokeswoman Katie Prill said the decision could be a "fatal blow" to the challenge campaign of Callis, who trailed Davis by double digits in a poll released publicly last week.
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Democrats pulling air support for Callis House campaign on St. Louis TV
As Ken Burnss superb documentary on the Roosevelts reminded us, Happy Days Are Here Again is one of the most evocative anthems in the history of the Democratic Party. You have to ask: Why arent the Democrats, and the country, singing it loudly now?
A party controlling the White House could not ask for much more from economic numbers than the Democrats got in Fridays jobs report, issued a month and a day before the midterm elections. Unemployment fell to 5.9percent, the lowest it has been since July 2008. The nation added 248,000 jobs, more than the forecasters had projected. Whats not to like?
President Obama, for one, is clearly frustrated that having inherited an economy that was at deaths door, he is getting remarkably little credit for getting it back on its feet.
As Americans, we can and should be proud of the progress that our country has made over these past six years, Obama said in a speech at Northwestern University the day before the figures were released. Right now, there are more job openings than at any time since 2001. All told, the United States has put more people back to work than Europe, Japan, and every other advanced economy combined.
And lest anyone miss the import of what he just said, the president added: I want you to think about that.
He would also like voters to think about that before they cast their ballots. And here is the conundrum of the 2014 campaign. In 2010, House Speaker John Boehners battle cry that helped Republicans win their landslide was, Where are the jobs? Obama and the Democrats are now in a position to reply: Here are the jobs!
But Boehner isnt asking that question anymore.
Why doesnt this good news matter more to the electorate? Obama and Democrats trying to survive this fall face two problems in getting voters to sing a joyous song.
The first is that the very improvement in the economy means that it is a less central concern to voters than it was when Obama took office or in 2010. The Gallup Polls numbers are striking: In February 2009, 86percent of Americans listed an economic issue as their central concern; in October 2010, on the eve of the last midterms, 69percent did. But in the most recent Gallup survey, the proportion listing an economic issue was down to 41percent. Better times mean different worries.
Yet voters who are still concerned about the economy tend to be focused not on its successes but on what it is failing to do for them. Thats the Democrats other problem. The unemployment rate is way down, but its still not low enough to create rapid and widespread wage growth. Many of the forces that have been driving up inequality since the 1980s are still with us.
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Dionne: Why Democrats arent getting credit for the economy
AUSTIN Republicans and Democrats are scurrying to register potential voters before Mondays deadline, but as with most issues, they disagree on strategy.
The state Republican Party is targeting people who have recently moved to Texas from another state or who switched counties within the state, and who have a history of voting Republican. Battleground Texas, a Democratic group aiming to make Texas elections competitive, is reaching out to people who have never registered to vote or seldom vote.
Texas has one of the lowest voter turnout rates in the country. According to the Texas secretary of states office, 27 percent of voting-age Texans cast a ballot during the last midterm election in 2010.
Monday is the deadline to send in a registration request. The Nov. 4 elections include contests for governor, congressional offices and county posts, along with ballot initiatives.
Texas hasnt elected a Democrat to statewide office since 1994. Experts say the fact that Republicans consistently win is a major reason for the low turnout. Battleground Texas, an organizing group started by veterans of President Barack Obamas campaigns, hopes to change that.
We know that Texas is not actually a red state, said the groups spokeswoman, Erica Sackin. Its just a state where people havent been engaged in politics yet and havent been voting yet.
Cal Jillson, a political science professor at Southern Methodist University, said turnout among affluent whites is three times that of low-income, high-school-educated and minority residents, and they tend to vote more Republican.
As you move down the age scale, education scale and income scale, those demographics are more likely to vote Democratic, Jillson said. With an approach that welcomes any registrants, Battleground Texas is figuring, were going to accidentally get a few Republicans, but were going to get more of our people.
Jillson said the best way to get people in these demographics to cast a ballot is to talk to them about the issues. For example, most rely on the public education system for their children, and Democrats want to increase funding. Some would also benefit from an expansion of Medicaid, which Republicans have resisted, he noted.
If you talk to them in terms of issues, and the way Democrats positions on the issues could advantage them if they would disturb themselves to vote, you might get some movement, Jillson said.
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Texas GOP, Democrats differ in approach to registering voters