The Fix: Heres how Democrats win back the Senate in 2016. And its surprisingly simple.
The Senate map is Democrats' friend in the 2016 cycle. They are defending only 10 seats while Republicans have two dozen of their own seats to hold. But wait, it gets better. Seven of those 24 Republican seats are in states that President Obama won not once but twice: Florida, Illinois, Iowa, New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
To win the majority back, Democrats need to win five of those seven seats in November 2016. (If Hillary Clinton, or some other Democrat, wins the White House in 2016, then Senate Democrats need to win only four of those seven. That's the exact path Republicans took to the Senate majority in 2014 when, needing a six-seat gain, they won all six of the states Alaska, Arkansas, Louisiana, Montana, South Dakota and West Virginia that Mitt Romney carried in 2012 and were represented by Democrats. (Republicans also won two states Iowa and Colorado that Obama carried twice and one, North Carolina, that Obama won in 2008 and Romney won in 2012.)
Of course, 2014 was a historically good year for Senate Republicans. The last time the party won more than nine seats in a midterm election was 1994 when they won 10. Prior to 1994, you have to go all the way back to 1946 when Republicans netted 12 seats.
And, while the map looks great for Democrats on paper, several of those seven races look less rosy in reality.Iowa is a very tough Democratic pickup unless Sen. Chuck Grassley (R) decides to retire, which he insists he isn't going to do. Ohio Sen. Rob Portman is a gifted politician and fundraiser while the Democratic bench in the state is decidedly thin. The Democratic fields in New Hampshire, Florida and Illinois are still quite muddled. And neither Sens. Pat Toomey (Pa.) nor Ron Johnson (Wis.) are political dead men walking. Not yet, at least.
There are also two genuinely vulnerable Democrats Sens. Harry Reid (Nev.) and Michael Bennet (Colo.) on the ballot in 2016.
Still, as the 2014 election revealed, the map and the math are huge factors in the battle for the Senate. Both are on Democrats' side this time around.
Below are the 10 most competitive Senate contests on the ballot in 2016. The number-one-ranked race is the most likely to switch parties in 2016.
10.Kentucky (Republican-controlled): Sen. Rand Paul (R) is staffing up, as expected, for a presidential run next year, landing incoming Illinois Gov. Bruce Rauner's (R) campaign manager, Chip Englander, as his campaign manager and installing Doug Stafford as a top adviser, among other well-known GOP consultants. Paul still has to figure out how he's going to run for president and hold his Senate seat if that former race doesn't work out. His opponent in that effort could be none other than Alison Lundergan Grimes, given her role as Kentucky's chief elections officer.(Previous ranking: 10)
9.Ohio (R): Ohio is a swing state. But Portman isn't seen as particularly vulnerable in 2016. A lot of that is because he banked $5.8 million by the end of 2014. Another big reason is Democrats have a very slim bench in Ohio. Among the names mentioned areCincinnati CouncilmanP.G. Sittenfeld, former governor Ted Strickland, former congresswoman Betty Sutton and Rep. Tim Ryan. A Strickland comeback would be particularly interesting, but he passed on a rematch with Gov. John Kasich (R) in 2014. (Previous ranking: 8)
8. Florida (R): Whither Marco Rubio? The Florida senator could be the odd man outin the presidential race, with fellow Floridian Jeb Bush and other establishment-friendly candidates like Mitt Romney and Chris Christie in the mix. Consider this: Rubio is just 43 years old, and he's got his 2016 reelection campaign to worry about. Perhaps it's better to focus on staying in the Senate and waiting for the next opportunity. If he runs, he'll be favored. And Republicans would be happy to see him stay focused on the Senate. (Previous ranking: 9)
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The Fix: Heres how Democrats win back the Senate in 2016. And its surprisingly simple.