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If House Democrats are going to ride an anti-Trump wave to power, California could be where it starts. Across the nation, there are 23 House Republicans sitting in districts that Hillary Clinton won. Seven are in California.

Clinton won some of those California districts by a lot. The Orange County-area seat represented by Rep. Edward R. Royce (R-Calif.) is a typical, affluent suburban Republican district that went for Clinton over President Trump by nearly nine points. That made it one of the most pro-Clinton Republican-held districts in the nation.

No surprise then, that districts like this one are a top Democratic focus in the 2018 midterms. If Democrats net 24 seats, they'll take back the majority.

No surprise then, that Royce, who has been in office for more than two decades, has at least five potential Democratic challengers most, if not all of them first-time candidates.

The latest to enter the race: Andy Thorburn, a wealthy businessman and former public school teacher who officially announced his candidacy Tuesday. Thorburn doesn't have the Washington backing as some other candidates, but does have a backstory of being jailed for 30 days while on strike in New Jersey for better teacher wages.

Thorburnis automatically competitive because of the $2 million he's loaned himself to try to win the primary. His campaign says that's more resources than any Democratic challenger currently has in a congressional contest.

Thorburn talks like a Bernie Sanders Democrat with the trade policy of a Republican, a reflection of Orange County's rapidly blurring socio-economic and demographic lines. (The district is roughly a third Hispanic, a third Asian and a third white.)

Thorburn supportsraising the minimum wage and getting student loan debt under control. He's for free trade. He likes Obama and Obamacare, he hates Trump. And, above all, he thinks the system is corrupt.

The system is definitely rigged, he said, explaining how one needs money or connections to launch a credible run for federal office. It's been a corrupt system not corrupt in a bribery sense but it's a very corrupted system.

Andy Thorburn, a first-time Democratic candidate, is running for California's 39th congressional district against Rep. Ed Royce (R). (Andy Thorburn for Congress)

Also challenging Royce is former Obama official Sam Jammal and Mai Khanh Tran, a pediatrician and Vietnamese immigrant who has the backing of the pro-abortion rights political group Emily's List, which says it will spend whatever it takes in this primary.

In 2018, Democrats are going to flip the House because of candidates like Mai Khanh getting into the fight, Emily's List president Stephanie Schriock said in a statement to the Los Angeles Times.

Navy veteran and lottery winner Gil Cisneros is also in the race. Only one candidate, former professor Phil Janowicz, voted in the district last year.

All the Democrats challenging Royce make up a healthy number of thetwo dozen-ish first-time congressional candidates who see an opening in some of California's longest-held Republican seats. Lots of eyes were drawn to the region in November after Rep. Darrell Issa (R-Calif.), one of the richest and most well-known members of Congress, narrowly won his race.

But there's no recipe for Democrats to unseat these suburban California Republicans. It's not even clear they can.

Republican operatives point out thatmany of these California Clinton Republicans are veterans who have represented their districts for decades and have a reputation beyond sharing the same party as President Trump. Many are also powerful figures in the Republican Party who can raise money in a flash. Royce is the chair of the House Foreign Affairs Committee and raised more than $4 million for his 2016 reelection. Six months into the 2018 cycle, he has $3 million cash on hand.

Well known and well funded, maybe. Battle tested? Hardly, say Democrats.

Royce stomped his Democratic opponent in November by 14 points, a little-known candidate who raised just $78,000. Democrats say the Orange County area, in the era of Trump, is ripe for a real challenger.

Combine all the California Republicans' votes for an unpopular Obamacare repeal bill, with the area's changing demographics, with a historically unpopular Republican president, and Democrats think they smell blood in the water.

House Democrats' campaign arm has set up a team in Irvine, its first headquarters in the state since 2000, to try to knock out at least nine California Republicans in their efforts to take back the House.

Orange County and Royce's district are Ground Zero.

There are Republicans who represent the Orange County that existed 20 years ago, said Drew Godinich, the Western press secretary for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.

Godinich spoke to The Fix fresh off the plane from Washington to move to California. The area has diversified, gotten younger and has gotten more socially progressive, and these Republicans don't represent Orange County.

Despite going 0-3 in high-profile special elections earlier this year, Democrats think control of the House is in play next year. But to get there, they'll have to knock off veteran Republicans in California, most likely with an untested Democratic candidate. If Royce's district is any indication, there are lots of Democrats who think they can be the ones to do it.

This post has been updated to include the names of two other candidates running in the Democratic primary for California's 39th district.

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Want to know if Democrats can take back the House? Keep an eye ... - Washington Post

The not-terribly-well-known Seth Moulton and Tim Ryan prepare to strut their stuff at an Iowa event know as an incubator for Democratic presidential candidates. Photo: Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call; Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call

Its the early, silly season of 2020 presidential speculation. So theres nothing unusual about speculation surrounding two fairly obscure Democratic House members, Seth Moulton of Massachusetts and Tim Ryan of Ohio. Compadres in an unsuccessful revolt against Speaker Nancy Pelosi last November (Ryan was the alternative candidate, Moulton a vocal supporter), they have both already attracted rumors that theyve seen a future POTUS in the bathroom mirror. They will join another colleague who has attracted some national attention, Cheri Bustos of Illinois, as featured speakers at Septembers Polk County Steak Fry, in Des Moines. This event is an effort to revive the annual Steak Fry event former senator Tom Harkin used to host in his home town of Indianola, which was a big-time magnet for future Democratic presidential candidates.

Everybody should get used to the idea of a putative 2020 Democratic field the size of an Iowa cornfield. There are three potential candidates who would each become front-runners in the 2020 race if they decide to run: Bernie Sanders, Joe Biden, and Elizabeth Warren. There are questions as to whether any or all of them are too old, particularly for a party looking to show its shed the barnacles exposed by the 2016 Clinton campaign. Sanders will be 78 when the 2020 Iowa Caucuses are held; Biden will be 77, and Warren will be 71 (for that matter, Donald Trump will be 73). But none of them has any particular reason to diminish their influence by declining interest in 2020. Their long shadows will make it harder for little-known alternatives to emerge. But the possibility of retirement or illness among the Big Three keeps open the gate to dark-horse fantasies.

If Sanders, Biden, and Warren do fall by the wayside, Democrats may suddenly find themselves with a presidential field that resembles the mob that ran for the GOP nomination in 2016. And as National Reviews Jim Geraghty reminds us, that did not work out to well for those Republicans who kept expecting someone to emerge to knock off Donald Trump, right up to the moment he was nominated:

One chunk of the field convinced itself there was an establishment lane, leaving Jeb Bush, John Kasich, Marco Rubio, and Chris Christie all elbowing each other for the same base of support that proved insufficiently influential. On the other side, Ted Cruz, Rick Perry, Bobby Jindal, and Scott Walker tried to occupy the conservative lane. Ben Carson and Carly Fiorina competed with Trump for an outsider lane. But in the end, it turned out there were no real lanes, just a traffic jam. Every non-Trump candidates determination to be the last one standing against Trump was the strategic miscalculation of the cycle.

There is no Donald Trump analogue gearing up for a presidential run on the Democratic side in 2020, so far as we know. But if one emerges, she or he will be helped enormously if there is a large field against which to pose as Gulliver among the Lilliputians. Geraghty counts 18 possible candidates right now, and while some will certainly not run, others may come out of the woodwork if the Big Three give the race a pass. Indeed, the Trump precedent has made the narcissism of long shots seem a lot more reasonable.

There are some things about the Donkey Partys procedures that might help mitigate the risk of an accidental nominee. Most importantly, Democrats award delegates on a strictly proportional basis, making the occasional sweeps that helped Trump win in 2016 impossible. The Democratic practice of awarding nonelected superdelegates if they preserve it is also a hedge against a hostile-candidate takeover of the party.

But even if they have no reason to fear the fate that befell the GOP in 2016, Democrats should begin to think through the practical consequences of a very large presidential field. If nothing else, the two-tier debates Republicans were forced to undertake would be very controversial in a party where last years debate scheduling and formatting were a huge bone of contention.And an undifferentiated glut of candidates might be good for party unity but not so hot for voter interest.

Maybe one or two of the Big Three (its hard to envision all of them running) will enter the 2020 race and either lock up the nomination early or at least cull the field of electoral weaklings. If not, then just two short years from now, at the Iowa State Fair, the candidates may be so thick on the ground that you wont be able to stir em with a stick.

Its a sign that his inquiry is growing in intensity.

The rule calls for a reduction in asthma-causing ground-level ozone.

In theory everybody in Congress favors a straightforward debt-limit increase. But side deals and other complications loom large.

An American ally is heard talking to the president of the United States like hes a slow-witted child.

Hes cut deals with the FBI, Russian oligarchs, and the president. Hes also quite a talker.

The vandals spray-painted f*ck Capito, f*ck Capital on the building.

Sources are saying the Staten Island politician may be looking to 2018 for a comeback.

After spending many weekends away at his resorts, Trump is now taking his first official getaway.

His punishment was to forfeit four days of vacation time.

It had sounded like hed be Skyping with America.

Things take longer to happen than you think they will, and then they happen much faster than you thought they could.

After repeatedly pushing off major undertakings like tax reform and raising the debt ceiling, theyre in for a truly hellish fall.

He suggested replacing the top general, but experts say the issue is he hasnt approved a new strategy.

A few high-profile firings of Flynn and Bannon allies including one who wrote a bizarre memo warning against globalists are out in recent weeks.

Despite Governor Cuomos assurances that wouldnt happen, the Board of Elections complied though it wont turn over Social Security numbers.

The GOPs plans to use the budget process for health-care and tax legislation are already half-ruined. The worst could be yet to come.

The Statue of Liberty doesnt mean what you think it does, Miller says.

Sanders, Biden, or Warren may run in 2020 and clear the field of pretenders. If not, Democrats could have the kind of field the GOP sported in 2016.

Yous guys should give him some credit.

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Democrats Could Have a 2020 Presidential Field As Wide As an Iowa Cornfield - New York Magazine

LUMBERTON Robeson County Democrats hope to save their floundering party by reorganizing and choosing new leadership.

A re-do of precinct organizational meetings and another county convention have been scheduled for later this month, said Brooke Clark, acting chair of the county party. The North Carolina Democratic Party ordered county party restructuring after it found that local Democrats did not follow party procedure when they elected their chairman and executive committee members during the April 8 county convention.

The local party still exists, but no business can be conducted until officers are elected at the county convention, said Clark, who was appointed temporary Robeson County chairman by state party Chairman Wayne Goodman.

The county convention is scheduled for 10 a.m. Aug. 26 in Room 2A of the Robeson County Courthouse, located at 500 N. Elm St. in Lumberton. Registration will take place at 9 a.m.

There will be some state Democratic Party personnel present at the convention, Clark said. They will be responsible for ballots and tallying votes.

Precincts that are not organized must do so in accordance with the N.C. Democratic Partys Plan of Organization on Aug. 12 between 10 a.m. and 7 p.m., Clark said. Precincts will be allowed to send voting delegates to the county convention only if they organize on Aug. 12.

Only 13 of the countys 39 precincts are organized, Clark said. Although anyone can attend the convention, only delegates from organized precincts are eligible to vote for party leaders.

People are needed to help organize the precincts.

I hope that people will be interested and participate, Clark said. Ive already talked to some people who have helped in the past.

Clark, who has been a precinct chairman and county vice chair, said she has no interest in serving as the county party chairman except in the interim.

I was asked to serve as the acting county chair and I accepted, she said. I want to see the party get on the right track and progress.

Anyone with questions can contact Clark by phone at 910-674-3650 or by email at blockclark@gmail.com.

The state partys 13-member Review Committee ruled on July 1 that a new convention must be held after holding a hearing in response to a petition filed by several county Democrats charging that the process used to elect local party officers at the April 8 county convention violated the state partys Plan of Organization.

After several hours of testimony, the 11 members of the Review Committee present at the hearing in Raleigh voted 10-1 to uphold the charge that rules were violated when Robeson County Democrats other than elected convention delegates were permitted to vote for party leaders. Approximately 50 Democrats at the April 8 convention voted for party leaders, rather than only delegates from the 10 of about 39 precincts that were organized when the convention was held. The result was Ed Henderson, a Red Springs town commissioner who is black, was not re-elected to another two-year term as chairman. He was defeated by Pearlean Revels, an American Indian.

The county Democratic Party for the past 46 years has operated under a gentlemans agreement that the party chairmanship would rotate by race to guarantee equal representation among the countys white, black and American Indian communities, said John McNeill, a former Robeson County Democratic Party chairman and the current mayor of Red Springs. The agreement stipulates that a member from each race can serve a two-year term as chairman and another two-year term as chairman if they choose to seek re-election. At the April convention, Henderson, who had just finished his first two-year term and sought another term, was voted out of office.

The petition challenging the convention results was filed by several black elected officials from Red Springs, Maxton and Fairmont.

Revels said Wednesday that she is not sure if she will seek the partys chairmanship during the upcoming convention.

McNeill said organizing the precincts and holding another convention is the way to correct the errors made during the April convention. However, not all of the precincts will be organized by the day of the convention, he said.

I dont think more than 20 precincts will be organized, he said. Its hard to organize some of the smaller, rural precincts.

Brooke Clark

http://www.robesonian.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/web1_IMG_5254201782175932367.jpgBrooke Clark

Bob Shiles can be reached at 910-4165.

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Democrats reboot, set convention date - The Robesonian

Of course, most Iranians themselves also did not expect the revolution to succeed. They did not know that the shah had terminal cancer, or that he would handle the response to protests as poorly as he did. Iran had periodic bouts of mass protests, after all.

Many of Khomeinis followers took him at his word that he sought reform, not personal power. For example, in 1978, the exiled ayatollah told the Associated Press, Personal desire, age, and my health do not allow me to personally have a role in running the country after the fall of the current system. He told the Parisian newspaper Le Journal, I cant accept any special role or responsibility. Once he grasped the reins of power, though, he held on tight. The revolution was already spinning itself out when Iraqi President Saddam Hussein launched a surprise attack on Iran. For Khomeini, it was a gift because it allowed him to distract from his own failings and rally people around the flag. By the time the war ended, he had consolidated power.

The Islamic Republic of Iran remains, however, an anomalous historical phenomenon and an unstable one at that. Throughout its history, there have been sparks that have rocked the regime. In 1999, the defenestration of students at a Tehran University dorm by plainclothes security men sparked unrest that shook the regime to its core. In 2001, Irans 3-1 loss to Bahrain in a World Cup qualifier also sparked nationwide protests when diaspora television broadcast that the Iranian team threw the match on government orders to prevent mixed gender celebrations. Most recently, in 2009, there was the fraudulent re-election of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, which once again sparked nationwide protests. In short, Iran is far from stable.

Only about ten percent of Iranians believe that the Islamic Republic is working well; these are the so-called hardliners. And additional 15 percent think Khomeini had good ideas, but that the revolution went off its rails and can still be righted; these are the so-called reformers. The remaining three-quarters believe that Khomeinis system failed and cannot be fixed. Most of these Iranians are not revolutionary but apathetic. Outrages such as those in 1999, 2001, and 2009 can bring them to the streets. In short, Iran is a tinderbox.

Every so often, a spark ignites. The question then becomes whether the regime is better at smothering the embers than the opposition is at fanning the flames. What is certain, however, is that in such an unpopular system, there will always be new sparks. What might be the next one?

A good bet is that it might revolve around the death of imprisoned Iranian politicians. The two most prominent Iranian politicians now under house arrest are Mehdi Karroubi and Mir-Hossein Mousavi. Karroubi has been a stalwart of post-revolutionary Iranian politics. He twice served as speaker of parliament, and he twice sought the presidency. In 2005, he went to sleep the winner as ballots were counted only to wake up in third place. After he publicly alleged raised questions about irregularities, Supreme Ali Khamenei chided him for questioning the integrity of the system. In 2009, after coming in last, he conceded gracefully and became a symbol of relative integrity when he condemned detainee sexual abuse in the wake of post-election unrest. Against the backdrop of Arab Spring unrest and regime concern that the similar demands for government accountability could find fertile ground inside Iran, the regime placed Karroubi under house-arrest in order to ensure his silence.

Around the same time, they also rounded up both Mousavi, a former prime minister and unsuccessful 2009 presidential candidate, and his wife Zahra Rahnavard. Charged initially with Mofsed-e-filarz, being corrupt on earth, a capital crime in Iran, Karroubi, Mousavi, and Rahnavard were eventually sentenced on lesser charges.

While Rouhani promised to free his former colleagues from house arrest, he did not do so; the three remain detained. On July 25, Karroubis daughters visited him and subsequently reported that their 79-year-old father was in ill-health, suffering both from kidney disease and high blood pressure. He was subsequently hospitalized, but the Islamic Students News Agency reported on July 28 that he had been released in perfect health. On July 30, however, his son reported to the reformist website Kalameh that his father had been re-hospitalized with a dangerously low heart rate.

Iran should be very, very worried. While reformists and democrats are not synonymouseven the most liberal reformist is a hardline theocrat when placed on the broad spectrum of Iranian political thoughtimprisoning Karroubi and Mousavi may have painted the regime into the corner. If they release one or both, not only does the regime look weak but, after six years of house arrest, both men may be slightly antagonistic to those who ordered their harassment and detention. If they die while in detention, popular outrage could amount to a spark that spreads.

Either way, the Islamic Republic is in for a challenge. The faade of acceptance and acquiescence is only thata superficial image that cannot mask the frustration and outrage festering just the beneath the surface.

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Democrats Have an Activist Problem - Commentary Magazine

Then-Senate candidate and now Sen. John Kennedy speaks at a get-out-the-vote rally on December 9, 2016, in Baton Rouge, Louisiana. DON EMMERT / AFP - Getty Images

"Until we can fix it, we cant let the system collapse and, I think, if you dont fund the CSRs, the system will collapse," said Sen. John Kennedy, R-La.

While the outlines of a bipartisan bill are becoming easier to spot, its still not clear the new moves will produce actual legislation. The White House is weighing its options and Sens. Bill Cassidy, R-La. and Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., are pushing an alternate bill that would provide health care funding to states in the form of block grants.

House Speaker Paul Ryan has also indicated hes not willing to give up on health care yet and conservative groups are expected to resist any deal that further entrenches Obamacare and makes it more difficult to repeal down the line.

"I dont know how this Problem Solvers plan goes anywhere," one Republican House aide said, suggesting it was more of a messaging effort for its organizers than a viable plan.

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Republicans and Democrats Suddenly Want to Fix Obamacare - NBCNews.com