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Earlier this month a coalition of progressive groups announced they were going to spend upwards of $100 million on television and digital ads to boost President BidenJoe BidenHenri downgraded to tropical depression as it dumps rain on northeast Britain to urge G7 leaders to consider adopting sanctions against Taliban: report Five lawmakers to watch ahead of key House budget vote MORE and the Democrats. When in doubt, flood the airwaves. What a waste!

I have a serious confession: For decades I have specialized in doing television and radio ads for Democratic candidates and groups. From the 1980s to the early 2000s our firms primary method of delivering a message and communicating with voters was paid ads. In a course on campaign advertising that I taught at George Washington Universitys Graduate School of Political Management for 20+ years, and in counseling candidates, I used to hold fast to the notion that 70-80 percent of most candidates budgets should be devoted to paid ads.

No more.

Is paid media important? Of course, but these ads dont do what they used to in the era of three major networks, very limited cable and no such thing as the internet. Not to mention when Amazon and Netflix and a myriad of other ways to watch programming without advertising came on board.

Yet we are stuck in the practices of yesteryear and instead of using our funds to enhance political organization, personal door-to-door campaigning, sophisticated targeting and communication, we throw what we have against the wall and see what sticks.

Democrats have tended more than Republicans to focus on the shiny objects of TV ads, instead of organizing and motivating our base to reach out and convince potential voters on the ground.

To be blunt: Democrats are not putting nearly enough of the billions raised into early, hard-core organization and way too much into glitzy TV ads.

How much of that $100 million goes to organizing? How much PAC money or candidate money goes to hiring staff and paying people to contact voters? How much goes to identifying voters interests and learning about what interests them?

Look what is happening to rural voters. Trump won rural voters with 59 percent of the vote in 2016; he won with 65 percent in 2020, despite losing the overall popular vote by over 7 million votes. Have you driven through rural America lately? Have you seen the signs and the barns painted TRUMP, the caravans during opening day of fishing season in Minnesota with flags flying and horns honking, even the t-shirts being worn at Target and Walmart?

Where are the Democrats? Where are the yard signs and supporters outside metro areas? Where are the local neighborhood headquarters in peoples living rooms? Have we given up on independent minded, less politicized citizens who may not always vote in every election? That is a big mistake.

An important recent Pew poll shows that of those who did not vote in the high-turnout election of 2020, Biden was favored over Trump by 15 points. Many of these were voters under 50 years of age and are not obviously committed voters by any means. These are critical voters for Democrats to target.

Many pundits and prognosticators have written the Democrats political obituary for the 2022 off-year elections. They are usually a disaster for the party in power, losing on average 26 House seats and 4 Senate seats. Their other reasons are many: the razor thin margin of less than a half dozen Democratic seats in the House and an even count of 50 in the Senate; redistricting that will cost Democrats seats, as Republicans game the system in southern and western states; a polarized nation where President Biden hovers around 50 per cent popularity.

Now, those are serious head winds. But one way to counter them is to increase our focus as Democrats on voter identification, turnout, and serious persuasion. We have the right messages for many of these voters child care and early childhood education, expanded community college, child tax credits for struggling families, direct care worker help for seniors, expanded Medicare coverage for dental care and prescription drugs. This is a pro-work, pro-families and pro-community agenda. And, by the way, solve COVID, pass the infrastructure and budget legislation before Congress that truly helps people and show ourselves to be the party that gets the job done.

If we organize around these messages and go after voters with sophisticated targeting, starting early, and go back to the future with person-to-person and door-to-door engagement, we might find ourselves maintaining the majority. This means real political money for rural areas, tracking our base, keeping a focus on less-likely voters and convincing them of what is at stake in 2022 and, yes, not wasting so much on expensive and less impactful TV ads.

Peter Fenn is a long-time Democratic political strategist who served on the Senate Intelligence Committee, was a top aide to Sen. Frank Church and was the first director of Democrats for the 80s, founded by Pamela Harriman. He also co-founded the Center for Responsive Politics/Open Secrets. Follow him on Twitter@peterhfenn.

Excerpt from:
How to prevent Democrats from digging their own grave in 2022 | TheHill - The Hill

Rockland County Democratic Committee members have traditionally been spliton policies and politics, but now add COVID vaccination and testing requirements for members who would attendits upcoming nominating convention.

Acting Chairman Christian Sampson of Ramapo has rejected theexecutive committee'svote to require committee members to showproof of vaccination or a negative COVID test in order to attendThursday'sconvention.

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The executive committee said italso found an outdoor venue for the convention to fill committee vacancies, choose a new chairperson and recommended anelections commissioner.

But despite those maneuvers, Sampson remained adamant that the indoor event would take place at 7 p.m. at the West Haverstraw Community Center.

TheRockland Democratic Party standoff involving the extent of precautions against the deadly COVID-19 virus is wrapped up in a political split between the party's progressive wing and other Democrats, including the influential Ramapo Party who are backed by the Hasidic Jewish bloc vote.

The party has 600 members, though numerous vacancies exist,and some could be filled at the convention, which is scheduled for 7 p.m. at the West Haverstraw Community Center, 50 W. Broad St.

Sampson, a former Ramapo Town Clerk and East Ramapo School Board member, said the West Haverstraw venue will have mandatory mask-wearing and spacing of seats. He said the building has a state-of-the-art air filtration systemthat kills COVID and many other viruses.

Sampson said for those party members concerned about the virus, the party bylaws allow for a proxy vote so their choices will be counted.

The executive committee vote was not overwhelming, Sampson said, estimating it was 13-11 for the notifications.

"I was quite surprised they indicated they wouldexclude folks who were not vaccinated and didnt have a negative test," Sampson said. "I dont believe we canlegally exclude people. It's certainly not what our party stands for.We have a proxy process in our bylaws."

The standoff likely means more votes by proxy, where party members votes are cast by others attending the convention.

Aa COVID numbers in Rockland increase and areas in the county have full vaccination rates among adults as low as16%, some executive committee members raised concerns about anin-person gathering. The leadership voted on Joseph Coe's recommendation to require certification of vaccination and/or a negative COVID test result.

This was an easy yes vote, said Dr. Ivanya Alpert, an executive committeemember, apediatrician and a former Piermont trustee. With the delta variant on the rise and with so many of our committee members vulnerable, including senior citizens, and parents with unvaccinated children, it is incumbent on the chair to put measures in place to ensure the safety of our members and the community at large.

Alpert wrote Sampson that the vaccination and COVID testing requirement waslawfully voted on and adopted.

"While you may disagree with this vote, you as chair do not have the power to unilaterally overrule a vote of the EC," Alpert said. "Moreover, by NOT mandating proof of vaccination or a negative COVID test, you are limiting meeting access for those who are elderly, disabled, or who have medical conditions."

Trudi Feiner, 93, an Orangetown resident and decades-long party member, said she may not attend theconvention.

Ive been a member of this committee for many years, and I know how important my vote is, but Im also not sure Im willing to jeopardize my health and possibly even my life in order to attend," Feiner said in a statement. "I would ask someone to carry a proxy for me, but everyone I know feels just as uncomfortable attending an indoor convention with people who may not be vaccinated."

The Democrats on Thursday will look to replace Kristen Zebrowski Stavisky, who held the dual positions of party chair and elections commissioner. She has been appointed as the Democratic co-executive director of the New York State Board of Elections effective July 31.

Sampson said he will seek the party chair to fill the unexpired term of Zebrowski Stavisky, the elections commissioner since 2013. .Former Legislator Nancy Low Hogan of South Nyack, the party's first vice-chair, has indicated she's interested in running the party.

For elections commissioner, the Democrats are likely to choose between Kathy Pietanza, the deputy commissioner and a decades-long elections office employee, and Barbara Petlin, a Spring Valley resident whose spouse Joel is the Kiryas Joel schools superintendent.

Republicans and Democrats choose their own election commissioners and deputies. The Rockland Legislature has traditionally approvedthe party's recommendations.

The vaccine/testing mandate is not unprecedented. Manhattan's Democratic Committee mandated proof of vaccination and mask-wearing for its Aug. 5 Judicial Convention.

New York state law requires partiesto host the convention in person.

COVID cases continue to increase in the county as of Aug. 20, there were 731 active cases of COVID in Rockland. Less than a month ago, on July 27, 156 active COVID-19 cases were recorded. Health officials have said that the highly contagious delta variant is likely responsible for the overwhelming number of cases.

Rockland's vaccination rate stands at about 69.2% of the county's entire population.

However, certain areas still show low vaccination rates, particularly in areas of Ramapo.

A key fallout of the delta variants spread has been a climb in breakthrough cases or those among the vaccinated.

Rockland Countys COVID-19 dashboards were updated last week to show the vaccination status of people who are currently hospitalized with confirmed COVID. As of Friday, 17 people were being treated in Rockland hospitals for COVID; four patients were fully vaccinated, eight werent vaccinated and five had unknown vaccination status.

Rockland County Health Commissioner Dr. Patricia Schnabel Ruppert said Thursday that vaccines remain key to protecting people from bad outcomes. "Most people who are hospitalized and who die of COVID still are unvaccinated."

As of Aug. 20, the last day of results, there have been 48,613 COVID cases confirmed in Rockland since the pandemic was detected here in March 2020. According to the Rockland County medical examiner, 970 Rockland residents have died due to COVID-related causes.

Steve Lieberman covers government, breaking news, courts, police, and investigations. Reach him at slieberm@lohud.com. Twitter: @lohudlegal. Read more articles and bio.

Nancy Cutler writes about People & Policy. Click here for her latest stories. Follow her on Twitter at@nancyrockland. Do you get the Rockland Angle? Subscribe here.

Originally posted here:
Rockland Democrats will convene with extent of covid mandates an issue - The Journal News

The view from the Nantucket Ferry. (Maddie Meyer / Getty Images)

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Some recent US figures on the distribution of income by party: 65 percent of taxpayer households that earn more than $500,000 per year are now in Democratic districts; 74 percent of the households in Republican districts earn less than $100,00 per year. Add to this what we knew already, namely that the 10 richest congressional districts in the country all have Democratic representatives in Congress. The above numbers incidentally come from the Internal Revenue Service, via Bloomberg, and are likely to be more reliable than if they came from Project Veritas via theblaze.com.

We have known for some time that the dark money of Charles Koch is answered by the conspicuous money of Jeff Bezos, Mark Zuckerberg, Jack Dorsey, Tim Cook, Sundar Pichai, George Soros, Bill Gates, and a swelling chorus of others, none of whom identify Republican. Yet it has been comforting, in a way, to continue believing that real wealth resides with the old enemy: Big Oil and Big Tobacco and the rest. They were the ultimate source of the power that distorted American society and politics.

The income of their voters aside, Democrats enjoy the active, constant, all-but-avowed support of The New York Times, The Washington Post, the Los Angeles Times, all three of the old television networks, CNN, NPR, and the online mainstream of Slate, Salon, and HuffPost. Any sentient reader can easily add a dozen more outlets. But along with the benefits of this mutual understanding comes a liability. The warm handshake with a friendly media establishment can grow so familiar that you get out of the habit of seeing what it looks like when you strut your stuff in public. And no longer seeing what it looks like, you stop asking what it might look like to people not already on your side.

For Barack Obamas 60th birthday, a celebration in Marthas Vineyard was planned for 500 guests and a staff of 200. Scaled back to minimize the bad optics, the numbers still looked to be in the hundreds; and this at a time when President Biden had lately advised Americans to re-mask and not assemble in large gatherings. Tom Hanks, Chrissy Teigen, Bradley Cooper, Beyoncall were present, making the scene, trailing clouds of glitz. The birthday message couldnt have been plainer: We work so hard, we are doing so much that you are not, every exception should be made for us. The leaked pictures were of undoubtedly cool people, worthy of their very cool host. MORE FROM David Bromwich

The display, however, brought back the memory of Gavin Newsom, caught dining unmasked with some donors after he declared his mask mandate, and more recently Muriel Bowser, caught doing the same just hours before declaring hers. Another dip into the past might recall the moment when Wolf Blitzer, at the height of the budget crush last October, confronted Nancy Pelosi over her stalling tactics on an emergency package to deny Donald Trump an assist at the polls. Blitzer said that he noticed people in city streets, hungry, homeless, and in immediate need. With an air of affronted virtue, Pelosi replied that no action taken by a Democrat like herself could be questioned: We feed them!

Even when a dissident wing of the party succeeds in a worthy causeas with the extension of the eviction moratorium effected by Cori Bush and her congressional alliesa suggestion of deserved status appears in an unpleasant light. A CBS reporter asked Bush about spending $70,000 on private security guards while less fortunate persons would be left to fend for themselves without the police she wants to defund. Bush pointed out that in earlier years she had been evicted three times, and yet she spoke in a voice weirdly similar to Pelosis: I have too much work to do. There are too many people that need help right now. So if I end up spending $200,000, if I spend 10, 10, 10 more dollars on [private security], you know what, I get to be here to do the work. So suck it up. And defunding the police has to happen. A Missouri TV station carried widely different reactions to her stance, from a woman who approved and a man who was having none of it. The citizen opposed to defunding was Black, working-class, in his middle years; the defunder was young, white, professional.

What has drawn the most attention around the eviction moratorium is Bidens risky politics in admitting that his extension probably wouldnt pass constitutional muster, but he was going to try it anyway. Just as interesting was the fact that Bush and her allies thought of landlords as the enemy. It did not occur to them to look higher up and ask for an extension of mortgage due dates to protect middle-class landlords (who depend on rent) from predatory banks.

The partys general tone sometimes seems to disparage the mass of people it cannot patronize. The truth is that property owners and shopkeepers of the middling sort, hard hit by the past 18 months if not the past 18 years, are pretty much off the radar of the new party of the rich. Even if, under Biden, the Democrats are union-friendly to an extent unimaginable in the Clinton and Obama years, the party as a whole remains closer to Wall Street, Silicon Valley, and Hollywood than it is to the merchants who lost their livelihoods in the summer riots of 2020.

For all the good things they do, there are some things you can rely on the Democrats not to do. They wont push hard for a genuinely progressive income tax. They wont raise corporate taxes in a way that would darken the brow of Bezos and Dorsey, Zuckerberg and Gates, or increase the inheritance tax in a way that might make an impression on the grandchildren of the Stanford class of 1985. They have learned to talk about racism, which is good, with intellectual labor-saving devices like systemic, which is not so good. Will they ever talk so frankly aboutas Dickens put it in Our Mutual Friendmoney, money, money, and what money can make of life?

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Have Democrats Become the Party of the Rich? - The Nation

A Republican investment analyst who narrowly won a vacant state Senate district in the heart of Connecticuts wealthy suburbs this week has some Democrats nervous about their partys standing ahead of crucial off-year and midterm elections.

Ryan Fazio, 31, claimed 50.1 percent of the vote ahead of Democrat Alexis Gevanter, a gun safety advocate making her first run for public office in the Greenwich-based district. A former Democrat running as an independent claimed another 2.3 percentage points.

It is the first special election held since President BidenJoe BidenHenri downgraded to tropical depression as it dumps rain on northeast Britain to urge G7 leaders to consider adopting sanctions against Taliban: report Five lawmakers to watch ahead of key House budget vote MORE took office in which a Republican won a seat formerly held by a Democrat.

Fazio presented himself as a typical Republican who opposed the tax hikes that are a constant presence in Connecticut politics. But Blake Reinken, Gevanters campaign manager, told The Hill on Friday that Fazios real edge came from an excited Republican base.

Turnout was high, for a special, and turnout was much higher than we thought it was going to be. It was much higher than anyone thought it was going to be because their base turned out, and we had to push our base to turn out as well. But it was clear there was a lot more enthusiasm, not among the activists necessarily, but among the voters than there was on our side, Reinken said.

Reinken said the race could be a harbinger for other contests both this year, when Virginia voters head to the polls to elect a new governor and legislators, and in next years midterms. Republican activists loudly protested against mask mandates and critical race theory at several events Gevanter attended in the weeks before Election Day.

I saw a preview of what may be coming in 2021 and 2022, and I just want to warn other Democrats just to not take anything for granted, he said. Now that Trump is gone for the most part, we have to fight double as hard to make sure that we protect our gains.

Fazio will reclaim a seat that Republicans held from Franklin Roosevelts administration to the 2018 midterm elections, when opposition to then-President TrumpDonald TrumpKamala Harris should offer Vietnam 'market economy' status Supporters at Alabama rally boo Trump after he tells them to get vaccinated CNN posthumously airs final interview with late Rep. Paul Mitchell MORE drove a Democratic tide in suburban districts across the country. Trump lost the district to President Biden by more than 20 percentage points in 2020.

The fact that this seat that Biden won by about 20 points should be scaring people, Reinken said. It could be really scary this time.

Voters in the area were no Trump fans to begin with Hillary ClintonHillary Diane Rodham Clinton'Childless cat ladies' and the long history of regulating who counts as an American Democrats sound alarm over loss in Connecticut suburbs GOP senator calls on Biden to fire Sullivan, national security team MORE won the district by 18 points in 2016, four years after Republican nominee Mitt RomneyWillard (Mitt) Mitt RomneyDemocrats sound alarm over loss in Connecticut suburbs Lawmakers flooded with calls for help on Afghanistan exit Bipartisan group of lawmakers call on Biden to ensure journalists safe passage out of Afghanistan MORE carried the district by9 points over then-President ObamaBarack Hussein ObamaObama's Joint Chiefs chair says US should have gotten out of Afghanistan earlier Biden blames others, but the errors are his in Afghanistan's crisis The mother of all difficult foreign policy decisions MORE.

In a very educated place and a very socially liberal place, Reinken said. We connected [Fazio] to Trump and we connected them to these issues and they didnt have to run from it as much as wed think.

Both Democrats and Republicans routinely downplay the importance of special elections, which are usually held away from regularly scheduled contests, feature low turnout and earn little attention from voters or the media.

Christina Polizzi, a spokeswoman for the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, said they did not see the Connecticut loss as evidence of any wave building on behalf of the GOP.

Democrats have had a string of special election victories in highly competitive districts across the country. In several of those races, the Democratic candidates outperformed President Biden's margin of victory. So make no mistake, we are fully prepared to challenge Republicans head-on and will continue to do so, Polizzi said in an email. This Connecticut district was previously held by a Republican for nearly a century before it flipped blue in 2018 and now its competitive. This is hardly a boon for Republican prospects in Connecticut or elsewhere.

But some special elections in recent years have foretold of trouble ahead: Two special elections in May 1994, in which Republicans won ancestrally Democratic seats in Oklahoma and Kentucky, were a preview of the Republican wave that swept Democrats out of control for the first time in 40 years. Two special elections in May 2008 when Democrats won deep-red seats in Mississippi and Louisiana hinted at the blue wave that would accompany Obama into office.

Biden won office, and Democrats saved control of the House in 2020, on the strength of his performance in suburban areas not unlike Greenwich. The narrow Democratic majority in the House means the party can ill afford any slippage in those neighborhoods.

We need to get our base fired up, Reinken said. We cant be afraid to admit that were on defense, in some ways. If you dont acknowledge the problem, it never gets addressed.

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Democrats sound alarm over loss in Connecticut suburbs | TheHill - The Hill

Newsoms dismissal would be painfully demoralizing to Democrats who wield total control over Californias government. It could also energize Republicans by showing they can win even in the bluest parts of the country. The GOP would inevitably frame Newsoms defeat as a repudiation of Democratic governance.

Dont think for a second this isnt also about 2022 and being able to hold the House. The consequences are profound," Newsom said at a get-out-the-vote rally in San Jose on Monday. A no vote would be heard loud and clear, not only across this state, but across the country."

The White House has contemplated getting more invested in Newsoms defense in recent days, and the governor said Saturday that the two camps are in the process of trading schedules to see when President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris would be available to join the campaign trail.

Though the outcome of the recall is still weeks away, some Democrats are already fretting about the potential knock-on effects in New Jersey and Virginia, the only other states with gubernatorial elections later this year and ones that are often viewed as weather vanes for national political currents.

Other than the Virginia governors race, this is the most important thing going on in the United States, veteran Democratic strategist Garry South who advised Gray Davis, the only previous California governor to be recalled said of the Newsom recall effort.

Newsom himself has employed that siren as he and his supporters are dialing up their rhetoric as polls show a tightening race, warning Democrats that his loss would reverberate beyond California and broadly imperil progressives agenda.

States have gained outsized influence during the pandemic through their different strategies of combating the coronavirus, and California and New York have set the tone for Democratic regions. This summer, Newsom was first to require that all students wear masks in schools and led the way on mandating vaccines for teachers getting ahead of the Biden administration.

The leading Republican recall candidate, Larry Elder, has vowed to remove those restrictions immediately and suggests he can turn California into a red state on Covid rules. Republicans are giddy at the prospect of improbable reversals in the two biggest Democratic strongholds where governors were being celebrated last year.

One down. One to go, tweeted conservative radio host Eric Metaxas about Cuomos resignation, along with side-by-side photos of the New York and California governors.

It's been a remarkable fall from grace for Cuomo, who was widely praised for his daily coronavirus briefings, which even won him an honorary Emmy Award. And it would have been difficult a year ago to imagine Newsom being ousted, given that his approval ratings early in the pandemic soared far higher than during his first year in office.

National Republicans smell blood in the water and are eager to yoke Democrats to Cuomo after he announced plans to resign following a damning New York attorney general report detailing a pattern of sexual harassment and a lingering cloud of investigations into several other matters.

While Newsoms woes and Cuomos toppling stem from different sources, both men losing their jobs could bolster a message about the larger failures of Democratic governors, said Republican Governors Association spokesperson Joanna Rodriguez. Voters have been paying closer attention to their governors as state governments lead the response to coronavirus, Rodriguez argued.

Either way, the California recall is likely to be a major test case of electoral politics in the Biden era.

The GOP would be able to convey a sense that Republicans have the wind at their back and that voters are turning against the Democrats whereas among the Democratic base, a lot of activists and contributors would be rattled, said Jack Pitney, a professor of politics at Claremont McKenna College and former Republican campaign operative.

Leading Democrats are warning voters that the effects would go well beyond Covid-19 and political momentum. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi on Wednesday, at a South Central Los Angeles gathering of teachers and parents to celebrate the Biden child care tax credit, called the California recall a GOP effort at skullduggery aimed to undo the national Democratic agenda.

Our system allows it ... but we do not like it, and we will defeat it, Pelosi said, seated alongside Rep. Maxine Waters (D-Calif.), surrounded by crowds of children and mothers in a packed community room.

While Republicans have found periodic success in congressional races or various local offices, their repeated statewide failures in California and New York have often hindered their ability to generate investments from the national party apparatus.

For Republicans, it's a very difficult place to compete, so it's sometimes off the table as they look at allocating their resources, New York Republican operative Dave Catalfamo said.

The collapse of Cuomo, and potentially Newsom, could be a jolt of adrenaline to two state Republican parties that have atrophied in recent years amid a succession of statewide political losses. Arnold Schwarzeneggers 2006 victory was the last for the GOP in California; George Patakis second reelection in 2002 was the last time for New York Republicans.

Such a result might offer some silver linings for Democrats, like allowing leaders from states outside of the New York-California bipolarity to fill the void left by Cuomo and Newsom. And New York Lt. Gov. Kathy Hochul, who is due to become the states first female governor, has reportedly had to relocate fundraising venues because of surging donor interest, a sign of a burst of enthusiasm among Democrats eyeing a post-Cuomo life.

The flip side, of course, is that a Newsom victory would be a reassuring sign for Democrats that theyd be able to hold up as proof of the partys electoral durability, and provide a useful counter to Republican attempts to wield Cuomo as a cudgel against them.

However the larger battle in New York will not be for more than a year, when Republicans will go up against Hochul in her quest for a full term or whomever Democrats nominate. Rep. Lee Zeldin (R-N.Y.) is the partys presumptive choice, but he is still fending off an underdog fight from Andrew Giuliani, and the GOP is having to retool its messaging with Cuomo on the outs.

Likewise the parties will also square off again for control of the California governorship in 2022, a contest whose contours will undoubtedly be sculpted by the results of the recall vote. Newly energized Republicans could lead to higher turnout and more GOP investment in the states congressional swing districts next year.

California Democrats are urging their voters to stop Republicans in their tracks now.

If they get this state, Newsom told supporters on a recent get-out-the-vote call, they can weaponize it from a national meta-narrative, the impacts are profound for Chuck Schumer, for Nancy Pelosi, for President Biden.

Link:
Democrats stunned by prospect of losing 2 biggest governors within weeks - Politico