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If House Democrats have any hope of saving their flimsy majority in 2022, or even just limiting GOP gains, it will be thanks to candidates like Salas. He is part of a group aiming to win roughly a dozen Republican-held House seats that Joe Biden carried in 2020 perhaps the only GOP districts that are truly vulnerable this fall.

In a midterm political environment leaning so heavily against Democrats, the party will need to win a large chunk of them to have any chance of remaining in power next year. Republicans need a net gain of just five seats to take the majority, and the GOP target list includes more than 10 Democratic districts Donald Trump carried in 2020.

Stiff national headwinds have stifled Democratic recruitment in many places, and some potential contenders opted to wait for a more promising year. But party operatives have landed top-tier Democratic candidates in many Biden-won districts, in part thanks to new favorable district lines. They are state legislators and military veterans and public school educators, among other backgrounds.

Redistricting has been obviously bad for Democrats in Ohio, but its been great in Cincinnati, said Democrat Greg Landsman, an early education advocate-turned-Cincinnati city council member whos taking on GOP Rep. Steve Chabot in 2022.

Chabot was protected over the last decade by a gerrymander that sliced Cincinnati in two. But the newly drawn district unites the city, transforming the seat from one Trump carried by 3 points in 2020 to one Biden won by 9 points. Its probably the best pickup opportunity that Democrats have in 2022. He never had to run in a district remotely this competitive, Landsman said of Chabot.Salas district also became more favorable for his party, by shedding some of Valadaos home base.

House Democratic strategists see Landsman and Salas as among their top eight prospects to flip a district this year. All were won by Biden in 2020 though rising inflation and Bidens plummeting popularity have made national Republicans operatives far less concerned than the 2020 numbers might warrant.

Even so, Democrats insist theyre going on offense. And several of the partys targets are in newly redrawn districts that voted for Biden by double digits, giving the party some hope even in a more hostile environment.

Perhaps Democrats single best target is in central Illinois, where the party transformed GOP Rep. Rodney Davis Springfield-area district into one Biden carried by 11 points. Davis jumped to a neighboring seat and a primary against a fellow Republican incumbent, clearing the way for Democrat Nikki Budzinski, a former adviser to Gov. J.B. Pritzker.

Another top Democratic target is in Western Michigan, where Republican Rep. Peter Meijer is now in a district that voted for Biden by nearly 9 points. And in southern New Mexico, former Las Cruces City Councilor Gabe Vasquez, a former aide to Sen. Martin Heinrich (D-N.M.), is taking on GOP Rep. Yvette Herrell in a seat redrawn by state Democrats to tilt more to the left.

In Cincinnati, Landsman won his primary last week with no competition, allowing him to devote all his efforts against Chabot, whom he outraised last quarter. Democrats also expect another recruit up this Tuesday, Nebraska state Sen. Tony Vargas, to clear his primary on Tuesday and shift his focus toward GOP Rep. Don Bacon, who represents the Biden-won district in Omaha.

In interviews, many of these recruits insisted they were not discouraged by the ominous political environment because they feel their backgrounds are uniquely suited to their home turf.

Salas, for example, has racked up huge victory margins in his California state Assembly seat elections, attracting crossover voters by bucking his own party on issues including opposing the gas tax and supporting increased funding for police.

And in Nebraska, Vargas, the son of immigrants who became a public school science teacher, lost his father, a machinist, to Covid-19. He was outraged that Bacon voted against a pandemic relief package.

We need people that come from working-class backgrounds that also have experience getting things done, Vargas said.

Bacons last opponent was a self-declared socialist who lost to him in two consecutive elections after the incumbent painted her as too far left for the swing district. In contrast, Vargas touts his bipartisan streak in the state legislature: Ive been able to get a lot done across the aisle.

While some Democrats in the Biden-GOP districts are skating through primaries, others have been more contentious. In the Los Angeles area, Christy Smith is seeking her third matchup against Rep. Mike Garcia (R-Calif.) after losing the first two.

But some national Democrats are pushing for first-time candidate Quaye Quartey, a Navy intelligence officer. He and his supporters argue hes a better contender against Garcia.

He and I are both Naval Academy graduates, former officers even though I outrank him. Were both people of color, were both first generation Americans, Quartey said in an interview, as he compared their bios.

The seat, which Republicans unexpectedly won in a 2020 special election, went for Biden by double digits in 2020, as Garcia held on to the seat by just 333 votes last fall.

The past two cycles, with all due respect to the former candidate, we didnt get it done, Quartey said when asked about running against Smith.

Still, while Biden-won territory isnt solid ground for Republicans, it also means that many of the incumbents have experience winning elections in tougher environments than they may face in 2022. Garcia and Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.) who was one of just three Republicans in Hillary Clinton-won districts to survive the 2018 Democratic wave each have just under $2 million banked already.

Democrat feels their likely nominee against Fitzpatrick, Ashley Ehasz, has a compelling profile as an Army veteran but her campaign had just $90,000 on hand as of April.

And Democrats are a bit less optimistic about seats that Biden carried by a smaller margin. Democratic physician Asif Mahmood is challenging GOP Rep. Young Kim in an Orange County seat that Biden won by just 2 points. Navy veteran Jay Chen is slightly better positioned in Republican Rep. Michelle Steels neighboring district, which Biden won by 6 points.

In addition to California, Democrats had high hopes for New York where the partys state legislators had drawn a lopsided gerrymander. But the states high court tossed out the map, scrambling plans to turn at least three GOP-held seats into strong Biden districts.

One district in upstate New York, held by retiring GOP Rep. John Katko, is likely to remain a top, Democratic-leaning pickup opportunity. Attorney Josh Riley and veteran Francis Conole are running there.

But an open seat on Long Island and another GOP-held district on Staten Island are likely to be far less Democratic-friendly under the new court-drawn map. Thats bad news for former Rep. Max Rose (D-N.Y.), a Purple Heart-winning combat vet seeking a rematch with GOP Rep. Nicole Malliotakis on Staten Island.

Rose is one of a handful of Democratic candidates who are making another go this election after a previous failed bid with hope they can pull off a win in a slightly better seat.

Democrats are also throwing support behind Hillary Scholten, a former DOJ attorney, as she prepares to face Meijer in his newly redrawn district.

The freshman Republican once said his vote to impeach former President Donald Trump may have been political suicide but in addition to a GOP primary, he has to contend with a newly competitive district. The new lines, drawn by a nonpartisan commission, take in portions of Grand Rapids that Scholten easily won in 2020 and add voters from other Democratic strongholds, like 20,000-student Grand Valley State University.

Were going to target every last one of those voters and make sure they know they not only have a chance to influence this seat, Scholten said, but also have a nationally important impact on the battle for the House.

CORRECTION: A previous version of this report misstated Gabe Vasquezs title. He is a former Las Cruces city councilor.

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Democrats' chance to save the House majority runs through these districts - POLITICO

Clyburns answer is both condescending and revealing. Ever since Politico reported that the Supreme Court was on the verge of overturning Roe, Democrats have responded with a single message: If you want to protect abortion access, you must vote for Democrats who will vote to codify the right to an abortion by law and add to their current ranks so that such a measure might pass both houses of Congress and survive a GOP filibuster along the way. That urgent project doesnt square with lining up to save the bacon of the Democratic Partys sole anti-choice member. This isnt so much a mixed message as it is a pured one. As Liza Featherstone wrote in Jacobin, House leaderships decision to back Cuellar suggests that it doesnt understand the urgency of the abortion fightnor any of the other pressing issues of our time, for that matter.

Cuellars out-of-step position on abortion isnt his only problem. The FBI raid on Cuellars home and campaign office reportedly focused on the congressmans business deals in Azerbaijan, involving Azeri kleptocrats and a range of Texas-based companies linked directly to his wife, Imelda Cuellar. The congressmans lawyers have insisted that Cuellar is not the focus of the investigation and that he has been fully cooperative. Nevertheless, that raid could haunt him should he secure the nomination. Its not as if the Democratic Party doesnt have very recent experience with FBI inquiries disrupting political campaigns!

Additionally, Cuellar opposed the Protecting the Right to Organize Act and has been labeled Big Oils favorite Democrat. Being a big-tent party is one thingbeing an anti-union, pro-oil, anti-abortion Democrat whos increasingly out of step with the partys priorities and may be connected to illicit goings-on with Eastern European oligarchs is another matter entirely. Besides, Democrats have a choice: They can back Jessica Cisneros, who is plainly an improvement on the status quo and who is close enough to a victory that just having the backing of party elites should wrap this election up with a bow.

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House Democrats Are Backing Abortion Foe Henry Cuellar at the Worst Possible Moment - The New Republic

New York Democrats have a big problem unless they wake up to the governors primary.

Gov. Kathy Hochul, who stepped into the post after Gov. Andrew Cuomo resigned, has a job rating so low it makes President Joe Biden look good. So she may be leading in the primary but is a real vulnerability in the general election. She appears to be unelectable and will send the state right into Republican hands if she heads the ticket this fall.

Hochuls job rating is 36% approve, 57% disapprove, about 5 points lower in New York state than Bidens national rating of about 42%. She received a 69% negative rating on crime and a 63% negative rating on economic issues the two most important concerns facing New York voters.

In 40 years of polling New York state elected officials, I cant recall ratings this low for a governor. Even when Cuomo was in effect ousted he had better ratings than this.

These low ratings have been masked by the fact that when she inherited the job with Cuomos resignation, her name recognition soared. Democrats and the press welcomed her as the first woman governor, who could save the state from the Cuomo tailspin.

But she has had a fair chance to show her stuff as governor, and the results have turned New York voters off. During the pandemic she launched an all-out blitz not against COVID but for her own fundraising, going aggressively after those with an interest in state contracts, even using the state plane to hop around from one undisclosed meeting to another. She has yet to release her travel records despite her promise of transparency. This unseemly fundraising during the height of the pandemic fostered an image of a culture of corruption.

Then, when crime in the state escalated and story after story came out of criminals released under the states new bail laws, she stood by idly, eventually proposing only modest reforms. On crime, she has been a follower not a leader.

This was topped by the arrest in a bribery scandal of her handpicked Lt. Gov. Brian Benjamin, who was charged with steering state funds to a real-estate developer who had him on the payroll. Every insider in New York knew he was under an ethical cloud, but Hochul promoted him to lieutenant governor anyway. She ignored all the warnings and just a day before his arrest defended him.

Then voters got to see questionable deals in the state budget, increasing the scrutiny of the interim governor. Hochul pushed through a subsidy of a billion dollars in taxpayer funding for a new Buffalo Bills stadium, the most expensive deal in NFL history and one that benefits the Florida-based Bills owner. Voters oppose this boondoggle by 63% to 24% in the Siena poll.

One area in which she has led is state spending, with a whopping $220 billion budget that contains program expansions that will likely lead to tax increases in future years if left unchecked. And none of this spending addresses the systemic challenge of high income taxes and high property taxes that are driving New Yorkers to Florida and other lower-tax states.

Republicans are locked in a primary, though Rep. Lee Zeldin is the front-runner. He would bring with him a strong suburban and upstate vote. He is generally a straight shooter who has worked his way up the ladder from military service through the state Senate to Congress. He is not as well-known as Hochul today so head-to-head polling wont reflect the full weakness of the interim governor that would come out in a general election.

Rep. Tom Suozzi is largely unknown in New York but is Hochuls only potentially competitive Democratic challenger. In a general election, he could run against the Albany corruption machine and has centrist positions on crime and taxes that would be hard for the Republican to beat, given the Democratic bent of the state. He is also strongly pro-choice.

Primary turnout could be light, given its June date and because wrangling over redistricting means other primaries will held separately. But it probably will be the most important primary for the states future. Debates and endorsements are fast approaching, and only now are Hochuls problems coming to light.

Yet the hidden issue is that the Democratic primary for governor, unlike the one for New York City mayor, wont be tantamount to election. If the winner emerges with only a 37% job approval, it may well be a handover of the governorship to Republicans.

Mark Penn is chairman of the Harris Poll and polled for Bill and Hillary Clinton for 13 years and for Ed Koch.

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NY Democrats need to realize Hochul can't beat Republicans in the general election - New York Post

Joni Ashbrook| Special to the Advertiser

Democrats alone in the U.S. House of Representatives passed President Joe Biden's transformative legislation called Build Back Better (BBB) last November. This bill not only invests in people, but addresses the real threat of climate change.

Unfortunately, the bill has been stalled in the Senate by all Republicans and two Democrats who are as oily as many in the GOP because of their investments in or donations from the fossil fuel industry.

These are just a few proposals included in BBB plan:

Tackling the climate crisis

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has 195 member countries and more scientists contributing to their work.

The IPCC's recent report warns that gas emissions need to peak by 2025 to limit global warming close to 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit.

The BBB plan would be the largest effort to combat climate change in American history.

Universal pre-school

Free high-quality universal pre-school for children age three and four.

Lowers child care costs

Makes high-quality child care more affordable.

Extends the Child Tax Credit

Allows for up to $3,000 per child age 6 to 17, and $3,600 per child under 6.

Makes health care more affordable

Reduce premiums for 9 million Americans through the Affordable Care Act tax credit.

Lower prescription drug prices

The plan would allow Medicare to negotiate prices to bring down costs for everyone.

Paid family and medical leave

Providing up to four weeks paid leave for parental bonding or to deal with a loved one's medical condition. The U.S. is now the only industrialized nation that doesn't offer this.

Expand Medicare

It would cover vision, hearing and dental needs.

Improves theVeterans Affairs Department's medical facilities

To give our vets the care they deserve.

Addresses thehousing crisis

Invests in new construction and preservation of housing.

The wealthiest Americans and corporations would fund the BBB plan by paying their fair share

For example, companies that report over $1 billion in profits would pay at least a 15%tax rate on those gigantic profits, and the tax code would be revised to prevent tax avoidance.

These are just a few of Democrats' proposals that they are fighting for, but Republicans don't offer a single solution to a real problem.

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell was recently asked what his agenda would be if Republicans regained control of Congress. He replied that it was a very good question. And I'll let you know when we take it back.

It's astounding that the leader of one of the major parties feels he doesn't even have to pretend to care about the problems facing us today.

Also, former President Donald Trump was asked by Newsmax what Republicans should do if they take back Congress. Trump didn't have a single proposal, but bashed Democrats as horrible people who hate our country.

Needless to say that is dangerous talk from a leader of any democratic country.

Republicans are terrible at legislating, but absolutely the best at fueling outrage over nonexistent problems.

Republicans, with the help of Fox News and other right-wing media, have whipped people into a frenzy over Critical Race Theory being taught in public schools regardless of the fact that it absolutely is not.

Now Republicans are passing laws making it illegal to teach about LGBTQ issues in Kindergarten through third grade. News flash, it is not taught.

It's no accident that the Don't Say Gay bill also feeds the outrage machine. A study from the University of Michigan found that anger motivates people to vote.

Republicans need to stop creating problems that further divide us and join with Democrats to solve real problems.

Ashbrook is a contributing columnist for the Advertiser. She is a retired school teacher and may be reached at trublu795@gmail.com.

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Commentary: Democrats work to solve real problems while Republicans manufacture them - Austin American-Statesman

The midterms are going to be a bloodbath for Democrats. The Democrats are going to get trounced in the midterms. The question isn't whether the Democrats are going to lose but by how much.

These are the headlines circulating across the media these days, and they are sure to only increase as we get closer and closer to November's midterm elections. Pundits across the political spectrum are predicting that Democrats will lose their majorities in the House and Senate. Delighting in this accepted "wisdom," Republicans have stopped even pretending to govern while they wait out the clock to election day, and now even some Democrats have begun to parrot this narrative of imminent defeat.

Seriously!?! Since when in an election cycle do we just skip over the voting?

Democrats have helped create more jobs at a faster rate and at higher pay than at any time in recent decades. Democrats have helped vaccinate hundreds of millions of Americans against COVID-19 and infection rates are plummeting. After decades of bipartisan shortcomings, Democrats have delivered historic investment in universal broadband, rail expansion, and road and bridge repair, with all the careers to be made and futures to be built from these accomplishments yet to come.

Meanwhile, President Biden has united fractured western democracies against Russia's brutal aggression in Ukraine and put the first Black woman on the Supreme Court while he's at it.

And while the Democrats have been achieving all this, Republican voters attacked the nation's Capitol to overturn an election at the bidding of President Trump; Republican legislators sent vigilantes to patrol women's health choices in Texas; and Republicans turned students into snitches on teachers in Virginia, moved to overturn the will of the voters in 19 states and nominated one conspiracy theorist after another to every level of government. Republicans also blocked every reform and relief package they could, from gun safety to energy security to voting rights. They demeaned a highly qualified nominee to the Supreme Court just for fun, praised dictators in Russia and Hungary, and offered no positive agenda for the country or the world.

The 139 Republican members of the House and Senate who voted in 2020 to support a coup here at home will finally have to answer to voters in November.

And still the pundits say Democrats will lose the midterms!?!

Political pundits and consultants are always confident and usually well-meaning, but often wrong. And that how it should be. After all, in a true democracy, the outcome belongs to voters, and voters alone.

Democrats would do better to quit whining about poor messaging and poor media coverage and get back to engaging directly with voters. Folks are anxious about rising gas, housing and grocery prices, not to mention the cost of medicine. They are also uneasy about the state of the world. However much Republican policies may be at the root of what ails us, however much Democrats have accomplished already in the Biden administration, people are genuinely and understandably frustrated that so much wrong is not yet right.

Democrats should feel that, see it, acknowledge it. That is not failure. It's motivation.

The case for voting for Democrats in the midterms is not to reward Democrats for what they have already accomplished, but to enable Democrats to finish the job.

The job is to revive the American Dreamfor everyone, everywhere. That's what the changes that have been made and the ones that are waiting to be made add up to, and why they matter.

No matter how much progress has already been made, Democrats can't let up on doing the work to earn every vote. That means showing up where voters live, work, play and pray, listening carefully, and engaging respectfully on the subjects they most worry about.

When we show them by our actions, not just our rhetoric, that for us government belongs to and is about people, it becomes clear pretty quickly that Democrats are the only ones even trying to fix what's broken and deliver a chance at a good job, decent, dependable healthcare, a safe, affordable place to live, a more secure nation, and a better future for every American everywhere.

So, Democrats, how about we quit wringing our hands about polls and pundits, and about media who dwell on what's not yet done? Instead of trying to forecast the future, let's do what we can to shape it. That's the way to win, and to deserve to win.

Deval Patrick is the co-chair of American Bridge 21st Century and the former two-term Democratic governor of Massachusetts.

The views in this article are the writer's own.

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Democrats: Stop Whining About Polls. We Have the Record to Win in November | Opinion - Newsweek