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Here are tidbits, observations and laments from Tuesdays primary elections.

Be careful what you pay for. Ken Griffin, the billionaire investment titan, fronted $50 million to back Aurora Mayor Richard Irvin in the Republican gubernatorial primary, hoping Irvin could smash Griffins nemesis and fellow billionaire, Gov. J.B. Pritzker, in the fall elections.

Pritzker and his allies preferred another opponent and poured tens of millions of dollars into a campaign that excoriated Irvin and propped up his chief competitor, Illinois state Sen. Darren Bailey.

The Democrats were meddling, Republicans howled.

The meddling worked. Bailey captured the GOP nomination with 57.5% of Tuesdays primary vote, the Tribune reported. That sets up a Bailey-Pritzker matchup for the fall.

David vs. Goliath, Chicago versus Downstate, the farmer vs. the billionaire.

Some give Pritzker high odds in the Nov. 8 general election. Yep, and Irvin was supposed to be a shoo-in for the GOP gubernatorial nomination.

Bailey, the farmer from Xenia, will be a fierce opponent. He ran an astute grassroots campaign with an ample and wily social media presence.

Dont let Baileys folksy aw, shucks ways fool you. He shined on primary night, showing he can be as effective speechifying at the podium as commanding a tractor.

Republican gubernatorial nominee Darren Bailey celebrates with supporters on primary election night June 28, 2022, in Effingham. (Brian Cassella / Chicago Tribune)

Pritzker may be riding high on his slam-dunk Democratic renomination. So high, in fact, that he is putting out feelers for a 2024 presidential run.

The governor recently flew to New Hampshire to appear at a Democratic Party convention and campaign for some of the states top Democrats.

His name keeps springing up for 2024, though his people say he is focused on his own reelection. Sure.

Be careful what you ask for, J.B. High ambition can equal dangerous hubris. Get reelected first.

Griffin was a sore loser even before he lost. Illinois richest man announced he was abandoning Illinois, Irvin and the rest of his statewide slate less than a week before his candidates bit the electoral dust.

The petulant Griffin is going to gator-land, moving his family and his many employees from Illinois to Miami. There he will avidly support Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis reelection bid. DeSantis must be salivating at the prospect of Griffins largesse as he plots his own presidential run.

DeSantis should beware of his fickle benefactor. Irvin can clue you in. Griffin will own you. One false move from you, and the bucks might dry up at exactly the wrong time.

Jonathan Jackson prevailed over 16 other candidates in the Democratic race for the 1st Congressional District, winning 28.2% of the vote.

The district enjoys a vaunted history. Famous African American men have held that seat since 1928, including Oscar Stanton De Priest, the first African American elected to Congress in the 20th century; the Olympian Ralph Metcalfe; Harold Washington, Chicagos first Black mayor; and the current occupant, U.S. Rep. Bobby Rush, the former Black Panther radical and Chicago alderman. Rush is retiring after 30 years in office.

The district spans Chicagos South Side to the southern suburbs and exurbs and is staunchly Democratic, making Jackson a near-certain winner in November.

The South Side businessman got a big lift from his marquee family name. He is the son of the Rev. Jesse Jackson, the civil rights icon, and brother of former U.S. Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr., who was convicted of federal fraud charges in 2013.

Family names are golden in politics. Even tarnished ones can pay off in Chicago. Just ask the Daleys, Madigans, Burkes and Cullertons.

Jonathan Jackson will take the congressional seat under a cloud. Critics blasted him for accepting money from political action committees with links to cryptocurrency interests. More than $1 million in those donations helped fuel his TV radio and billboard ads.

Even before the votes have been counted, Jackson has already put up a for sale sign, said a fellow 1st District candidate, 3rd Ward Ald. Pat Dowell.

Dowell and the other women in that race should have found a smoke-filled room and cut a deal to get behind one of their own.

Bobby Bigfoot Rush heartily endorsed and campaigned for one of them, Karin Norington-Reaves, former CEO of the Chicago Cook Workforce Partnership. Reaves came in third with about 14% of the vote.

The runup to the U.S. Supreme Courts decision to overturn Roe v. Wade triggered an avalanche of assurances that the news would gin up voter engagement and turnout.

Not.

About 20% of registered voters turned out in Chicago and Cook County, according to election officials.

Hope springs eternal. Theres always another election around the bend. The Nov. 8 midterm election is up next, then Chicagos citywide races on Feb. 28.

Seven elected city officials sought higher office on Tuesday. One prevailed.

Six Chicago aldermen tried to move up, but only one succeeded: 12th Ward Ald. George Cardenas of the Southwest Side, who won a seat on the Cook County Board of Review.

Dowell and Ald. Gilbert Villegas lost their campaigns for the 1st and 3rd Congressional District seats, respectively. South Side Ald. Howard Brookins and Ald. Chris Taliaferro of the West Side lost contests for judicial seats.

Meanwhile, South Side Ald. David Moore and Chicago City Clerk Anna Valencia came up short in their bids for Illinois secretary of state, losing to former Illinois Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias.

As they lick their wounds, dont be surprised to see some eyeing another bid for the fifth floor of City Hall.

Hello, Mayor Lori Lightfoot!

Laura Washington is a political commentator and longtime Chicago journalist. Her columns appear in the Tribune each Monday. Write to her at LauraLauraWashington@gmail.com.

Submit a letter, of no more than 400 words, to the editor here or email letters@chicagotribune.com.

Read more here:
Laura Washington: Democrats and J.B. Pritzker should be careful of buyers' remorse - Chicago Tribune

Advisor Group chef strategist Phil Blancato and Baird PWM market strategist Michael Antonelli discuss recession fears in the U.S., the Fed's handling of inflation and how investors can navigate the market.

EXCLUSIVE: One year after becoming the first GOP committee or outside group to launch ads taking aim at Democrats over soaring inflation, the National Republican Congressional Committee is coming back for round two.

The NRCC, the re-election arm of the House GOP, on Thursday launched a new digital ad campaign blaming President Biden and congressional Democrats over the rising costs for Americans holiday plans over the long July 4 weekend.

The NRCC says their new ad campaign, which was shared first with Fox News on Thursday, will target 25 House Democrats they consider vulnerable in Novembers midterm elections, when the GOP needs a net gain of just five seats in the 435-member chamber to win back the majority.

"Last year was the most expensive Fourth of July ever. This year, its even worse," the narrator in the spots emphasized.

FOURTH OF JULY BBQ PRICES UP $10 FROM A YEAR AGO

The ad then noted how the prices of buns, burgers, propane, and gas have skyrocketed.

"Democrats harmful economic policies are making everything more expensive and theres no end in sight," the narrator charged before urging those viewing the ads to tell the House Democrat being targeted that "we cant afford this."

The ads are taking aim at Democratic Reps.Josh Harder (CA-09), Julia Brownley (CA-26), Katie Porter (CA-47), Mike Levin (CA-49), Sanford Bishop (GA-02), Cindy Axne (IA-03), Frank Mrvan (IN-01), Jared Golden (ME-02), Kathy Manning (NC-06), Andy Kim (NJ-03), Tom Malinowski (NJ-07), Melanie Stansbury (NM-01),Teresa Leger Fernandez (NM-03), Dina Titus (NV-01),Susie Lee (NV-03),Steven Horsford (NV-04), Marcy Kaptur (OH-09),Chrissy Houlahan (PA-06),Susan Wild (PA-07), Matt Cartwright (PA-08),Vicente Gonzalez (TX-15),Henry Cuellar (TX-28),Elaine Luria (VA-02),Abigail Spanberger (VA-07) and Jennifer Wexton (VA-10).

CLICK HERE FOR LATEST FOX BUSINESS REPORTING ON SOARING INFLATION

Last July 4 holiday weekend, the NRCC became the first GOP committee or allied outside group to launch ads targeting House Democrats over rising consumer prices.

A gas tank driver delivers 8,500 gallons of gasoline at an ARCO gas station in Riverside, Calif., Saturday, May 28, 2022. (AP Photo/Damian Dovarganes) (AP Photo/Damian Dovarganes / AP Newsroom)

"Democrats promised theyd get record inflation under control, but prices have only gone higher," NRCC chair Rep. Tom Emmer argued. "This year's 4thof July is the most expensive in history, and voters know Democrats are to blame."

The NRCC says their new digital spots are backed by a modest five-figure ad buy.

GET FOX BUSINESS ONTHE GO BY CLICKING HERE

While the NRCC continues to blame Democrats for surging gas prices, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (the NRCCs counterpart) keeps pointing fingers back at House Republicans.

"The Democratic Party is the only party in Washington fighting to solve problems and bring meaningful change to peoples lives. Democrats priority is lowering costs for working families, while Republicans priority is to win power by playing politics and siding with wealthy corporations," DCCC spokesperson Chris Taylor charged last month.

Originally posted here:
House GOP re-election arm targeting Democrats over Most Expensive 4th of July Ever: Part II - Fox Business

Published

2022-07-01 07:16

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When a draft opinion leaked in early May showing the Supreme Court planned to overturn Roe v. Wade, Cincinnati Mayor Aftab Pureval turned to his staff. Pureval wanted to figure out what he could do to shore up abortion protections in his city, in a state that was set to restrict abortion access. Ohio now bans abortion after six weeks of pregnancy.

We immediately started thinking, What can we do in the instance that Roe v. Wade went down? he told The 19th. Thats frankly when, during that research, we discovered the 2001 ordinance.

That ordinance, passed by a different city council, restricted city employees from having their work health insurance cover an elective abortion. On Monday, Pureval announced the council planned to repeal the restriction and pass new rules that would allow city health insurance to include abortion-related services. It did so unanimously Wednesday.

Hamilton County, where Cincinnati is located, is just one of a handful of Ohio counties where a majority of voters backed President Joe Biden in 2020, even as the state overall went for Republican Donald Trump by eight points.

We are a blue city in a red state. And that dynamic is playing out right now in real time, where local leaders are trying to understand how to effectuate these laws, if at all, and also how to protect their constituents, Pureval said.

A similar dynamic exists in several Republican-led states that are also home to large populated urban areas. Polling shows liberals are more likely to live in cities, while conservatives lean toward rural areas and small towns. The result has been Democratic officials at the helm of some of the biggest local government bodies in red states. Now, Democrats like Pureval are trying to work through bans and restrictions in the state to offer additional protections for residents who seek abortions no matter how limited that might be.

Leaders in several cities including in Atlanta; Austin, Texas; Cincinnati; and Phoenix and Tucson, Arizona are talking openly about their options. Several are trying to lessen the impact of criminalizing people who seek or perform abortions. Some are considering how to limit the use of city funds for related criminal investigations. Others, like Pureval, are offering more protections for city employees.

Theyre doing the right thing because they are pro-choice champions, said Heidi Sieck, co-founder and CEO of #VOTEPROCHOICE, an organization that works to elect people in local and state offices that support abortion and mobilize voters on the issue. They realize that they have to step up and do this.

Several leaders acknowledge there are limitations to what they can do, especially if state and district attorneys are determined to seek prosecutions related to an abortion.

In Austin, the Democrat-led city council plans to vote on a resolution this month that would provide guidance to city law enforcement that aims to lower the priority of abortion-related investigations. It would also recommend that city funds not be used for such investigations. Abortions up to six weeks of pregnancy are currently allowed in Texas but will likely be completely banned in the near future.

Chito Vela, an Austin council member who co-introduced the resolution, said the Texas legislature might preempt the city council, stopping it and other cities from creating city-specific rules on abortion. Its a tactic state lawmakers have turned to before, subverting city policies on police budgeting and use of plastic bags.

We have to be very careful about trying to kind of craft our local ordinances in such a way that they minimize conflict with the legislature, and at the very least make it harder for the legislature to try to stop us from implementing local will with regard to these issues, he said.

Vela added that local officials need to step up even if the legal road ahead is messy.

Dont underestimate something like morale, he said. The people of Austin do not want to just sit there and see it happen. They want to do everything that they can to push back for abortion rights.

In Phoenix, Mayor Kate Gallego said the city council plans to vote on a resolution stating that they are not allocating resources toward investigating or prosecuting cases involving abortion providers. The state is in the midst of sorting out legal questions about which of its abortion restrictions is in place. Gallego explained that its police department can be asked to investigate both misdemeanor and felony cases.

We are going to prioritize resources to focus on violent crime and not preventing women from getting health care, she said.

In Cincinnati, Pureval has committed to offer travel reimbursement for any of the 6,000 city workers who need health care services not locally available. He has also directed his administration to examine how to decriminalize abortion in the city and to prioritize law enforcement resources to protect the health and safety of women and medical care providers.

Pureval has asked his administration to provide a report within 30 days that explores the citys options on decriminalization efforts. But they may be limited. City prosecutors have jurisdiction over misdemeanors, but abortion, according to state law, is a felony. The prosecutor with jurisdiction over felonies in the county Cincinnati is in has indicated he plans to pursue cases involving abortion.

Democratic leaders agree that state and county prosecutors will be pivotal in figuring out what comes next. At least 90 district attorneys and other prosecutors from more than 30 states and territories and the District of Columbia have signed onto a letter committing not to investigate those who seek, assist in or provide abortions.

The degree to which we can decriminalize the issue in Cincinnati really hinges upon our ability to deprioritize the issue of abortion using our police resources, Pureval said.

Sieck added that its important for local officials to take action now because there is such confusion about what policies will be in place on the local and state level following the Supreme Court ruling. She called the dynamic utter total legal chaos.

Youve got all this complexity. Every single situation now is a patchwork of unknown, she said.

In recent days, national Democrats have called on the public to vote for candidates who support abortion access a form of action that may be complicated in states with gerrymandered state legislative and congressional maps that may make it harder for Democrats to flips seats. But Pureval said it will be up to people to vote for policymakers who support abortion access if they want the rules to change in the state. He added that hes reached out to the mayor of Chicago in an effort to address and support a potential influx of Cincinnati residents seeking services in the area.

This is not a solve for this issue. This is our attempt to fight back as creatively and firmly as possible, he said. But unless there is federal legislation or unless your state legislature protects a womans right to choose, it is an uphill battle, no doubt about it.

Gallego in Phoenix encouraged people to vote in the August primary and November general election. The state is electing a new governor, U.S. senator, state legislators and local prosecutors.

All of those matter for the outcome related to womens health care, she said.

Vela said his staff has been in communication with officials within other Texas cities and outside of the state, including in Atlanta about enacting similar policies. The council approved a resolution last week, before the Supreme Court ruling, urging local police to make abortion investigations the lowest possible priority.

There is strength in numbers, and the more cities and counties that speak up, the stronger our voice will be, he said.

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Democratic leaders in red states are figuring out what they can do to help people seeking abortions - The 19th*

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OPINION: Democrats hope 'Trump fatigue' gives them a shot - Lewiston Morning Tribune

The US Supreme Courts annual term usually finishes at the end of June, so late June is when the most important decisions are likely to be announced.

On June 23, the Court struck down a New York state law that restricted carrying of guns outside the home. On June 24, it denied a constitutional right to an abortion, overturning its own Roe v. Wade ruling in 1973. On June 30, it ruled against the Environmental Protection Agencys (EPA) regulations on fossil fuels.

From an international viewpoint, the EPA ruling is the most significant. Other countries can set their own gun and abortion laws, but climate change mitigation efforts require international co-operation. According to a May 2021 report, China had 27% of global greenhouse gas emissions in 2019, with the US second with 11% of emissions.

How did the Supreme Court become right-wing? Unlike Australia, judicial appointments in the US are politicised. Democratic presidents will try to appoint left-wing judges and Republican presidents will try to appoint right-wing judges.

Supreme Court judges are lifetime appointments. Presidents nominate judges who are subject to confirmation by only the US Senate, not the House of Representatives.

Until late 2020, the Court had a 5-4 right majority, but Chief Justice John Roberts sometimes sided with the left, most famously in the June 2012 decision that upheld Barack Obamas Affordable Care Act (Obamacare).

In February 2016, right-wing Justice Antonin Scalia died. Obama was still president at the time, and replacing Scalia would have given the left a 5-4 majority. But Republicans controlled the Senate, and majority leader Mitch McConnell denied a vote for Obamas nominee, Merrick Garland.

McConnells ruthlessness was rewarded when Donald Trump unexpectedly defeated Hillary Clinton at the November 2016 presidential election. Trump nominated Neil Gorsuch to replace Scalia, and his nomination was confirmed by the Republican-controlled Senate in April 2017.

In July 2018, right-wing Justice Anthony Kennedy retired. After a vicious confirmation fight that involved allegations of rape, Kennedy was succeeded by Trumps nominee Brett Kavanaugh in October 2018.

At the November 2018 midterm elections, Democrats gained control of the House, where all 435 seats are up for election every two years. But senators have six-year terms, with one-third up every two years. The seats up in the Senate last had elections in 2012, a great year for Democrats. Republicans gained two net Senate seats in 2018 to extend their control.

In September 2020, left-wing Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg died. McConnell ruthlessly rammed Trumps nominee, Amy Coney Barrett, through the Senate in late October, shortly before the November 2020 election that Trump lost.

This is how weve now got a 6-3 right Supreme Court: Obama did not get a chance to replace the right-wing Scalia, while Trump had three nominees approved, including Ginsburgs replacement.

Left-wing Justice Stephen Breyer announced he would retire at the end of the current term, and President Joe Bidens nominee, Ketanji Brown Jackson, was confirmed by the now Democratic-controlled Senate in April. Jackson has now replaced Breyer, but she replaced a left-wing judge, so the 6-3 right majority remains.

A Gallup poll conducted in June before the major decisions were announced, had 25% expressing a great deal or quite a lot of confidence in the Supreme Court, down from 36% in June 2021. Thats the lowest confidence in the Court in Gallups polling, which goes back to 1973; the previous low was 30% in 2014.

A FiveThirtyEight article last Friday cited seven polls that asked whether voters approved or disapproved of the June 24 abortion ruling. Disapproval led in all seven polls by seven to 23 points, with an average lead of 15.6.

The bad news for Democrats is Bidens ratings are at a near-record low compared to past presidents. In the FiveThirtyEight aggregate, 55.9% disapprove of Bidens performance and 39.2% approve (net -16.7).

Thats worse than Trump, who had a -10.2 net approval at this stage of his presidency. Since presidential approval polling began with Harry Truman (president from 1945-53), Biden only beats Truman at this stage of previous presidencies. Truman fell to -19.0 net before rebounding into positive net approval.

Inflation and the resulting drop in real wages explain a large amount of Bidens unpopularity. US inflation increased 1.0% in May alone for a 12-month rate of 8.6%, the highest since 1981. Real weekly earnings dropped 0.7% in May and are down 3.9% in the 12 months to May.

As well as economic factors, I believe a perception that Biden has been weak in both the Afghanistan withdrawal in August 2021 and the current Russian invasion of Ukraine has damaged his ratings.

Midterm elections will be held in early November, with all 435 House seats and one-third of the Senate up. FiveThirtyEight has Republicans leading Democrats by 2.0% in the race for Congress, little changed from before the abortion ruling.

While the currently close polls give Democrats hope, they do not yet account for Republican efforts to tie Democratic candidates to the unpopular Biden, or for greater Republican likelihood to vote. The FiveThirtyEight House model gives Republicans an 87% chance of winning control from Democrats.

In the Senate, there are elections for 35 of the 100 seats 34 are regular elections that were last up in 2016 and one is a byelection in the safe Republican Oklahoma. Republicans will be defending 21 seats and Democrats 14. The Senate is currently 50-50, with Democrats in control on Vice President Kamala Harris tie-breaking vote.

Although Republicans need just one net Senate gain to win control, their defence of 21 seats to 14 for Democrats makes it harder for them than the House. FiveThirtyEight gives Republicans a 55% chance of winning the Senate.

In my opinion, the economy is likely to be far more important to most voters than abortion. Democrats are still likely to be thumped at the midterms owing to the economy.

In April I calculated the percentage of people living in cities of over 100,000 population in four countries: the US, Australia, the UK and Canada. 68% of Australians lived in cities of over 100,000 population, but only 29% of Americans.

Read more: Will a continuing education divide eventually favour Labor electorally due to our big cities?

In the US, high income white people have moved to suburbs outside cities, and these swung to Democrats in 2020, helping Biden win.

Like the Australian Senate, the US Senate has the same number of senators for each state (12 in Australia, two in the US), and this makes it highly malapportioned, with high-population states like California, Texas, Florida and New York getting the same number of senators as the lowest population states.

Analyst Nate Silver said in May that this means the US Senate has a large skew towards groups that are trending towards Republicans (rural and small town voters).

In the US overall, suburban and urban voters make up 52% of the population, to 48% for rural and small town voters. But in the average state, rural and small towns make up 61% of the population, while suburban and urban voters have just 39%.

In 2024, Democrats will be defending 23 Senate seats and Republicans just 10; these will include Democratic defences in Montana, Ohio and West Virginia, which Trump won easily in both 2016 and 2020.

If Republicans gain a permanent lock on the Senate, they will be able to deny future Democratic presidents legislative or judicial wins. The US could be heading for a future where only Republican presidents are able to govern effectively.

I covered the June 23 UK Wakefield and Tiverton & Honiton byelections for The Poll Bludger. The Conservatives lost Wakefield to Labour and T&H to the Liberal Democrats. Also covered: the collapse of Israels government that was formed to keep Benjamin Netanyahu out, and Colombia elected a left-wing president for the first time.

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How the US Supreme Court has become right-wing, and do recent decisions give Democrats hope at the midterms? - The Conversation Indonesia