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(December 20, 2023 / JNS)

Democrats are more firmly supportive of Israels war against Hamas in Gaza than some recent national polling has suggested, according to a survey released on Tuesday.

The new poll, commissioned by Democratic Majority for Israel, found that Democrats believe the United States should support Israel over Hamas by a wide margin: 63% to 6%, which is nearly identical to the margin for U.S. registered voters (67% to 5%.)

The study surveyed 1,637 registered voters in the United States from Dec. 7-12 and had a margin for error of plus or minus 2.42%.

Asked if they prefer a ceasefire with Hamas immediately, or only after the terrorist group was disarmed and dismantled, nearly half (48%) of Democrats supported the latter, with less than a third (29%) calling for immediate ceasefire.

Mark Mellman, president of Democratic Majority for Israel, whose research group conducted the poll, told JNS that other polls suggesting outsized Democratic support for a ceasefire or high favorability for Palestinians are based on faulty polling and poorly-worded questions.

A lot of this has been not polling, but guesswork, Mellman said. If you just say to people, Should there be a ceasefire? Well, who would be against that? Why would anybody be against that?

But if you say, Should there be a ceasefire if it leaves the hostages in Hamass hands or leaves Hamas in control of Gaza? People say No. There shouldnt be a ceasefire under those circumstances.

Critics of Israel have seized on polls purporting to show that a majority of Americans support a ceasefire to demand that the Biden administration pressure Israel to halt its campaign against Hamas.

The majority of Americans are with us in supporting immediate de-escalation and a ceasefire, Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-Mich.) wrote on social media on Oct. 20, citing a Data for Progress poll. Its time for President Joe Biden and Congress to support our ceasefire now resolution to save lives.

Pollsters have consistently found that majorities of Americans support a ceasefire in general terms, with that support particularly strong among Democrats and younger American adults.

An Economist/YouGov poll released earlier in December found that 78% of self-identified Democrats would support a future ceasefire, and a Harvard/Harris poll last week found that 67% of registered voters aged 18-24 favored an unconditional ceasefire that would leave everyone in place, the only age group in which a majority of respondents took that position.

Those figures, combined with former-President Donald Trumps recent polling leads over Biden in several 2024 battleground states, has led some within the Biden administration to urge the president to soften his public messaging on Israel.

On Thursday, Politico reported that Vice President Kamala Harris has told Bident to express more sensitivity towards Palestinian civilians.

Publicly, many administration officials have balanced support for Israels right to self-defense and condemnation of Hamas in the aftermath of Oct. 7 with statements disapproving of the number of Palestinian civilians killed during Israels operations against Hamas.

Its clear that the conflict will move, and needs to move, to a lower-intensity phase, Secretary of State Antony Blinken said at a press conference Wednesday. We expect to see, and want to see, a shift to more-targeted operations, with a smaller number of forces, thats really focused-in on dealing with the leadership of Hamas, the tunnel network and a few other critical things.

Blinked added that the suffering of civilians in Gaza was gut wrenching and that he personally was very, very deeply affected by the humanitarian toll.

Mellman doesnt buy the argument that Biden and down-ballot Democrats need to triangulate on Israel to have success at the ballot box.

Theres really no evidence to support the proposition that President Bidens support for Israel is doing him any electoral damage whatever, he said. If anything, I think his support for Israel is a net positive.

Youll find there are more people that are likely to vote for Biden because of his pro-Israel stance than to vote against him because of that, Mellman said, citing swing states like Michigan, Pennsylvania and Nevada, where Jewish voters make up about 2-3% of the electorate, while Muslim voters account for 1% or less.

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Guesswork, Mark Mellman says of polling that Democrats favor ceasefire, Palestinians - JNS.org

Kellyanne Conway, who served as a high-ranking political adviser in the Trump administration, sparked outrage on social media for making a joke about what she views as Democrats' nonchalant attitude toward abortion.

Conway took the jab at Democrats while on Fox News' Outnumbered on Wednesday.

"I think Democrats wake up every morning and they look at the calendar on the iPhone and it says January 6th. The date never changes. And then they get into an electric vehicle and go get an abortion," Conway said.

Conway was mocking popular Democratic stances, including a woman's right to health care, which includes abortion; how the use of electric vehicles could help curb climate change; and that the U.S. Capitol riot of January 6, 2021, was an attack on U.S. democracy and that those responsible for the siege should be held accountable.

Newsweek reached out to Conway via online form for comment Wednesday.

Ron Filipkowski, editor in chief of liberal news site Meidas Touch, reacted to Conway's Fox News remarks in a post on X, formerly Twitter. "Most people have to try really hard to be this reprehensible, but I think it comes naturally to her," Filipkowski wrote.

Eric Garcia, senior Washington correspondent for the Independent, wrote on X, "Man, I'm old enough to remember when Kellyanne Conway used to coach Republican men not to sound like absolute pigs when talking about abortion to women."

X user Dianne Callahan wrote, "January 6, 2021 will be in every history book and imbedded in our minds forever. Kellyanne Conway's cavalier attitude is quite repulsive. The electric car and abortion comment is so low class."

Others on social media reacted to Conway's remarks with mockery.

Representative Robert Garcia, California Democrat, shared the clip of Conway and wrote on X, "Wow I literally did all of this yesterday."

"It's true. I get an abortion every morning," freelance journalist Laura Bassett wrote on X.

Rex Huppke, columnist for USA Today, wrote on X, "This is accurate. I personally have had 354 abortions so far this year."

Conway was former President Donald Trump's campaign manager during his successful run in 2016, then his senior counselor during his presidential term. Her ex-husband, George Conway is a vocal critic of Trump.

She was on Fox News Wednesday to criticize the Colorado Supreme Court's decision to bar Trump from the state's 2024 GOP primary. The court ruled Tuesday that, under the 14th Amendment, Trump was banned from holding public office due to his actions during and related to the January 6 siege on the Capitol.

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Kellyanne Conway Sparks Outrage With Snark About Democrats and Abortion - Newsweek

Some who know Lapid, who served as Israels interim leader for the final six months of 2022, have been struck by his formality on the phone and the absence of the lively and confiding mien that American Democrats can find disarming.

Despite his deep, historic misgivings about Netanyahu, he wanted to make clear that there was real unanimity of purpose when it comes to the campaign in Gaza, said Senator Chris Murphy, a top Democrat on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. He was delivering a message about the imperative of defeating Hamas.

When I asked Murphy if Lapid had actually mentioned his rivalry with Netanyahu, he quickly clarified that Lapid had not.

Im seeing that as the context, the senator explained. There was no predicate to the message he was delivering.

One person familiar with Lapids conversations with Democrats said they represented a kind of whip effort to reinforce support for Israel among people who are skeptical of the government and closer to his value set.

They obviously have very little love for Netanyahu, very little faith in Netanyahu, this person said of Senate Democrats. Lapid says to them: This is not about the government. This is about Israels security.

Yet the 60-year-old Lapid, a centrist former television journalist, is a canny enough communicator to know it is possible to send multiple messages at once.

If he is using these phone calls to express solidarity in word, Lapid is also drawing a contrast with Netanyahu in deed.

When Lapid posts on X about his phone calls with Democratic senators as he has done with Murphy, Elizabeth Warren, John Fetterman, Chris Van Hollen and others the implicit question to Israeli voters seems obvious enough. Wouldnt it be nice to have a leader who wasnt toxic on one side of the American political spectrum?

And to Senate Democrats: dont they wish they had, in Israels prime minister, a partner that they could trust?

The problem for everyone involved is that its unclear either fantasy might become real anytime soon.

The Israel-Hamas war has become a fault line in Democratic politics that will outlast any one Israeli prime minister, with scenes of Chechnya-like devastation in Gaza incensing a generation of young activists and, increasingly, Democratic officeholders. The upcoming Democratic primary season is already looking like a monthslong proxy fight between pro-Israel groups and left-wing organizations that have mobilized against the war.

Joe Biden, who joined the Senate the same year as the Yom Kippur War, may be the most unreservedly pro-Israel Democratic president we see for some time. Though he has rebuked Israel for its indiscriminate bombing in Gaza, Bidens commitment to the Israeli cause is not in question. Even his own vice president, Kamala Harris, has voiced more ambivalence in private, POLITICO reported last week .

In Israel, meanwhile, voters appear ready to discard Netanyahu but there is no sign that they are turning leftward on matters of peacemaking and national security. They appear fed up with Netanyahus political cynicism, alleged corruption and extremist allies; they doubt his competence and blame him for failing to stop the Hamas attack in the first place. But those same voters overwhelmingly support the military mission to wipe out Hamas.

Current polls suggest Israelis are far less inclined to embrace Lapid as an alternative to Netanyahu, than Benny Gantz, the former IDF chief of staff who now sits in the war cabinet. He is the most popular politician in Israel because he is the face of its response to the sadistic barbarism of 10/7.

Yair Lapid has absorbed criticism of the Gaza campaign, allowing Democrats to share their concern about the military effort without echoing it himself. | Ohad Zwigenberg/AP

The American left may not forgive him for it. That might only make Israelis admire him more.

All of which makes the line of communication between Lapid and the Democratic Party a precarious enterprise. If he were to shift an inch or two further to the right, to accommodate his own domestic politics, or Democrats were to tilt a few degrees to the left in deference to parts of their political base, the whole project could become untenable.

In a way, Lapid allies suggest, that is the point to show that he can do the acrobatic kinds of political diplomacy that Netanyahu does not even attempt. It is not a new argument for Lapid, who as foreign minister met in 2021 with the progressive American group J Street and left-wing lawmakers like Barbara Lee and Jamaal Bowman, a move that drew harsh condemnation from Netanyahu and other Israeli conservatives.

Hes proud of the fact that he can talk to people who arent totally in the tent, said a second person familiar with Lapids outreach.

In his more recent phone calls with Democrats, Lapid has absorbed criticism of the Gaza campaign, allowing Democrats to share their concern about the military effort without echoing it himself. He has notably not spoken with Israels most outspoken critics in Congress, like Bowman or Bernie Sanders, focusing instead on more reliably pro-Israel Democrats like Murphy, who have expressed tempered dismay about the war.

Recalling his conversation with Lapid, Murphy said he told the opposition politician that he was worried Israels military strategy was not matched to the goal of a lasting victory over Hamas.

We had a candid conversation about my concerns regarding civilian casualties, he said.

But candor, detached from shared policy ideas and the power to enact them, only goes so far.

This, too, may be an unintended message of Lapids phone calls.

The Yesh Atid party leader is himself a test of the link between Democrats and Israel. He is the most prominent Israeli elected official who has called for Netanyahu to step down, supports a Palestinian state and cares about Israels relationship with the Democratic Party. He told my colleague Jamie Dettmer in November that Israels future depends on returning to being a country thats led by liberal values.

Lapid is also a man who backs the Gaza campaign to the hilt, described most of the dead there as Hamas terrorists in a Sky News interview and has consistently trashed Obama- and Biden-backed negotiations with Iran as dangerously misguided.

No other plausible Netanyahu successor is a more palatable package for Democrats. Several others are more hardline by a substantial margin.

The trajectory of the U.S.-Israel relationship may depend on mainstream Democrats willingness to reconcile themselves to that reality.

There may be a future date when Netanyahu is long gone, the 10/7 attack is no longer a singular event in Israels political consciousness and American progressives have begun to forget the images they have seen from Gaza in recent weeks when a tighter and more comfortable bond can grow again between Democrats and their counterparts in Israel.

Then, it may be easier to create new versions of the anecdotes Biden so often repeats, about his encounters in another century with Golda Meir, the Israeli leader whom Democrats could happily admire.

For now, delicate phone calls between distant political cousins on the center-left may be as good as it gets.

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Israel's Opposition Leader Has a Message for Democrats. They May Not Like It. - POLITICO

As the election draws closer, several hot-button issues are causing divisions within the Democratic party. Recent reports that the White House is willing to concede on several hardline immigration policies in exchange for Ukraine funding are undeniably adding to the rift.

The Week C-SPAN Became Must-See TV

One of those reported concessions, according to CNN, includes a safe third party proposal that would bar asylum seekers whove passed through other countries from entering the United States.

Progressive members of Congress, including Rep. Ayanna Pressley, have urged the administration to reconsider adopting right-wing immigration policies in exchange for funding for the Ukraine war. Immigrants are people, migrant families are not bargaining chips, and claiming asylum is a human right, posted Pressley on X. Any policies that undermine these truths are unacceptable and a non-starter.

The Root sat down with Democratic House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) for The 411, and we asked him about these reported concessions.

I havent had an opportunity to review any specific policy changes that are being contemplated, said Jeffries. But as soon as thats made available to us, we will make sure that members of the House Democratic Caucus can be fully and comprehensively briefed.

Jeffries answer is consistent with that of other House Democratic leaders whove said they have not had a seat at the table in these negotiations.

Last week, The Congressional Hispanic Caucus (CHC) expressed their concerns that they had not been included in discussions around the proposed immigration changes. The White House countered that theyd been in constant contact with House Democrats and the CHC as a part of negotiations. However, CHC Chair Rep. Nanette Diaz Barragn, D-Calif, told NBC News that wasnt true.

As a matter of fact, weve been the ones asking for meetings for weeks with the White House and Administration officials involved in the talks, as well as the President and the White House has not been very responsive to our requests, she told the outlet.

Although Rep. Jeffries says he hasnt seen specifics from the White House on immigration policies, he believes that Democrats shouldnt agree to anything simply to appease extremists.

Theres nothing that should be agreed to that simply relates to a hard right-wing policy wishlist, said Jeffries. What should not happen, in my view, is that cosmetic changes are made that are simply designed to appease right-wing extremists.

However, the House Minority Leader did not rule out making concessions with Republicans in exchange for aid for Ukraine.

I think its irresponsible that immigration-related issues have been injected into the national security conversation, he said. However, since we are at this space where the border policy conversation is a part of the discussion, then weve just got to make sure that it is processed in a manner consistent with American values.

The 411 episode with House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries will drop on Friday morning!

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Hakeem Jeffries Not Privy To Biden Immigration Concessions - The Root

Sen. Tim Kaine is among five Democratic legislators calling on President Joe Biden to urge Israel and Egypt to protect reporters covering the war between Israel and Hamas.

Kaine, D-Va., is a member of the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations.

Without protections for journalists in Gaza and access for international journalists, the world is unable to get a complete and accurate understanding of events, the senators wrote Friday in an open letter to Biden. The lack of transparency caused by limited journalistic access is at odds with the obligation all governments have to allow citizens to access factual information.

The four other senators are Brian Schatz, D-Hawaii; Peter Welch, D-Vt.; Chris Van Hollen, D-Md.; and Cory Booker, D-N.J.

The legislators said only a small number of international reporters have been allowed to access Gaza as part of a tour organized by Israel Defense Forces.

Under this arrangement, journalists must remain with the IDF, and in some cases, face requirements to submit their footage to the IDF for review before publication, the letter states. Other journalists who have requested to enter Gaza through the (Egyptian) Rafah crossing have been refused.

The legislators called this arrangement wholly inadequate and said it was severely restricting the flow of independent information.

The senators further called for Palestinian reporters already working in Gaza to receive standard protections.

They, at great risk to themselves, have continued working while fleeing their homes, losing family members, and living under constant threat of violence, the letter states. The scale of the killings of journalists and media workers is unprecedented in recent times.

Some media organizations, including the Society of Professional Journalists and the Committee to Protect Journalists, have also recently called for press protections in Gaza. As of Tuesday, the committee has counted at least 68 journalists and media workers killed since the war began Oct. 7. They are among the nearly 19,000 deaths in Gaza and the West Bank and 1,200 deaths in Israel, according to the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs.

In an interview this week with National Public Radio, CPJ President Jodie Ginsberg said covering war is always dangerous. But she said the aggressive nature of the bombardment in Gaza has created extreme risks for reporters.

Journalists in Gaza are reporting on the injured in hospitals, for example, and hospitals have been attacked, or theyre reporting on convoys trying to flee the north to the south and those roads have been attacked, Ginsberg said. Its impossible for journalists to report in a way where they can be safe or get to a place of safety.

This article has been updated to state that Sen. Tim Kaine is a member of the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations, not the chair of the committee.

Katie King, katie.king@virginiamedia.com

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Sen. Kaine among Democrats pushing for press protections in Gaza - The Virginian-Pilot