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As summer began, it was unthinkable that Democrats in the midterm elections could keep control of the House of Representatives; as summer ends this week, its thinkable.

Its still very likely that Republicans will win more than the net of five seats necessary for the majority. They would be intent on making Joe Bidens life miserable for the next two years.

Yet Democrats today may have more current tailwinds than historic headwinds. Six reputable non-partisan congressional preference polls this month NPR/PBS/Marist, Wall Street Journal, Economist/YouGov, Fox News, Harvard-Harris and the New York Times-Siena all show Democrats leading; the average is more than three points.

This may be a political Prague spring. GOP voters may come home by November, and some polls again may be undercounting low propensity Donald Trump-loving voters. The betting markets still see a Republican House next year.

The buoyant optimism of Republicans peaked three months ago. After an initial analysis that redistricting was a partisan wash, Ohio Republicans, despite a court order, were able to keep their deeply gerrymandered map, while the equally gerrymandered Democratic-drawn map in New York was thrown out. These two outcomes may have gained five GOP seats.

But most everything since has cut against the Republicans: foremost, the Supreme Courts decision to end abortion protections, which has energized Democratic candidates and voters; Trump has been dominating the news, which Democrats believe helps them; gas prices are coming down a bit, and there have been some legislative achievements.

National tides will affect competitive house races, as will the quality of candidates and local politics.

There is no typical contest, but Ive selected several races in five states three in the usual Midwest battleground, plus Pennsylvania and California that crystallize the Democrats possibilities and the daunting challenge. These include both their own seats they must hold and prospects for pickups.

Pennsylvania: In the Keystone state, Republicans are targeting two Democratic incumbents:Matt Cartwright and Susan Wild in the swing Northeast part of the state; the Cook Political Reports Dave Wassermans PVI index the partisan voting index that reflects how each district performs at the presidential level compared to the country as a whole shows Republicans have a small edge in these districts. There also is an open seat in Western Pennsylvania rated a tossup.

The onus is on Democrats to win these three seats. The life raft may be the top of the ticket, which features especially weak Republican candidates for governor and U.S. Senate.

Michigan: With an abortion referendum on the ballot, Democratic hopes have soared, perhaps enough to rescue an endangered incumbent, Dan Kildee, in his Flint-based district. Democrats got a break and should win a Grand Rapids seat after a Trump right-winger defeated a more moderate GOP incumbent in the primary.

It will take a blue wave in the Wolverine state, however, to win another seat in the lower peninsula, where Republican John James, who lost two close Senate, races, is the stronger candidate in a district with a PVI of plus-3 Republican. But his anti-abortion stance could make this a close contest.

Ohio: Republicans may have miscalculated in redistricting when they targeted Democrat Marcy Kaptur; her Toledo-based district now has a Republican partisan advantage, but the GOP then nominated P.J. Majewski, who attended the Jan. 6 assault on the Capitol and peddles QAnon conspiracy theories.

Conversely, they didnt protect Republican Cincinnati Congressman Steve Chabot the new district leans Democratic and Democrats are convinced theyll win this seat.

Tougher will be the open seat in northern Ohio. Most of this district has been represented by Tim Ryan, a Democrat whos running a very competitive Senate race; the redrawn district has a Republican edge.Democrats need to win all three of these Ohio seats.

Iowa: This is a tough nut for Democrats to crack in a state that has moved Republican red. Democrats are trying to knock off two freshman Republicans and hold onto their only member of the delegation. All three districts have a GOP PVI advantage.

Moreover, the Republican Gov. Kim Reynolds and the 89-year-old seven-term Sen. Chuck Grassley are favored at the top of the ticket.

The glimmer of hope is Republican efforts to push through a heartbeat bill that would ban abortions after six weeks. The always reliable Anne Selzers Des Moines Register poll shows Iowans by 54 percent to 38 percent oppose this measure. Democrats have to win at least one, maybe two, of these seats.

California: Democrats enjoyed a banner year in 2018 that Republicans reversed two years later. Democrats have to win back three of these seats, represented by Republicans Michelle Steel in Orange County and further north, David Valadao and Mike Garcia. Valadao is one of only two Republicans who voted to impeach Trump still politically alive.

Joe Biden won these districts in 2020. Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom is expected to win easily, and Democrats have an abortion rights referendum on the ballot to bring out more voters. All three of the GOP House targets are anti-abortion. Democrat Bill Carrick, an eminence grise of California politics, is optimistic about these races and ventures there are a couple other sleepers if theres a blue wave.

Overall, if Democrats win, say, 80 percent of the races in these five states, they have a shot at holding the House.

Thats a very tall order, but not unthinkable.

Al Hunt is the former executive editor of Bloomberg News. He previously served as reporter, bureau chief and Washington editor for The Wall Street Journal. For almost a quarter century he wrote a column on politics for The Wall Street Journal, then The International New York Times and Bloomberg View. He hostsPolitics War Roomwith James Carville. Follow him on Twitter@AlHuntDC.

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Democrats now have a chance however slim to retain control of the House - The Hill

Democrats lead in five key Senate races Republicans hope to flip just 50 days out from the midterm elections in November, giving them hope to hold control of Congress' upper chamber despite President Joe Biden's approval rating floundering for much of the summer.

Democrats currently hold a majority in the Senate, which is split between 50 Republicans, 48 Democrats, and two independent senators who caucus with the Democrats. One-third of the Senate is up for grabs come November, when voters will determine which party will ultimately win control.

Republicans hoped to make the midterms a referendum against Biden, who suffered from struggling poll numberslargely fueled by economic concerns including high gas prices, inflation and recession fearsthroughout the summer. However, a series of legislative wins, as well as the Supreme Court's overturning of Roe v. Wade in June, have given Democrats hope that they could hold onto a majority of Senate seats.

Of the 35 seats up for grabs, 14 seats are held by Democrats, while 21 are held by Republicans. Republicans are aiming to flip Democratic-held seats in Arizona, Colorado, Georgia, Nevada and New Hampshire. Meanwhile, they are on the defense in North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Wisconsin.

Here is a look at the five Democratic-held Senate races Republicans hope to flip in November.

Democratic Senator Mark Kelly was first elected in the state's special election in 2020 to serve out the remainder of the late Senator John McCain's term. Kelly defeated former Senator Martha McSally by 2.4 percentage points and is expected to be in for another competitive race during the midterms. Arizona is one of the states most evenly divided between Democrats and Republicans.

Now, Kelly, a former astronaut who is married to former Representative Gabrielle Giffords, is running for his first full Senate term.

Although the race remains competitive, Kelly is seen as having a narrow lead against venture capitalist Blake Masters, who won the support of former President Donald Trump during the Republican primary and has faced backlash for some controversial remarks.

Kelly holds an 8.1 point lead against Masters in an aggregate of recent polling from FiveThirtyEight. An Emerson College poll conducted from September 6 to 7 found Kelly with a 2 point lead among likely voters. In the poll, 47 percent of respondents backed Kelly, while 45 backed Masters.

Colorado, once viewed as a swing state, has become a Democratic-leaning state in recent years, with Democrats sweeping statewide office elections in 2020. But Republicans view the state as potentially being competitive during the midterms because of businessman Joe O'Dea, a moderate who party leaders believe can appeal to independents and centrist Democrats.

As abortion becomes a major issue during the midterms, O'Dea has staked out a more moderate position than other GOP candidates. He also condemned the January 6, 2021, riot at the U.S. Capitol and has not shied away from the fact that Trump did not endorse his campaign. He defeated a pro-Trump candidate who attended the riot during the primary.

However, polls show O'Dea still has an uphill battle in Colorado, which backed Biden by double digits in 2020. FiveThirtyEight's polling aggregate shows incumbent Democratic Senator Michael Bennet with an 8.6 point lead. In addition, a survey conducted by Public Policy Polling from August 30 to 31 showed Bennet with an 11 point lead over O'Dea.

Georgia, a former Republican stronghold that broke for Biden in 2020, is set to be one of the closest Senate races in the midterms. Republicans are betting on former football star Herschel Walker to take on Senator Raphael Warnock, who was elected in 2020 to finish the remainder of the late Senator Johnny Isakson's term.

Walker, endorsed by Trump, has faced a number of scandals throughout the campaign, including his false claim that he served as an FBI agent. While Republicans are favored in other statewide races in the state, Warnock holds a 2.7 point lead, according to FiveThirtyEight.

A Quinnipiac University poll conducted from September 8 to 12 found Warnock holding a 6 point lead among likely voters, with 52 percent of respondents saying they planned to vote for Warnock. Meanwhile, 46 percent of likely voters are expected to vote for Walker.

Republicans hope former Attorney General Adam Laxalt will be able to unseat Democratic Senator Catherine Cortez Masto in Nevada, a state that has consistently voted for Democrats by very narrow margins in recent years.

FiveThiryEight's polling aggregate shows Cortes Masto, first elected in 2016, with a 2.9 point lead against Laxalt, who served as the attorney general from 2015 to 2019. Laxalt ran for governor in 2018, losing to Democrat Steve Sisolak by about 4 points. Republicans are hoping that Hispanic voters shifting toward Republicans, as well as economic concerns that affected the tourism-dependent Las Vegas area, will boost them in the state.

Republicans view the seat as one of their top pickup opportunities, as Laxalt has previously won tight elections. Democrats, however, point to Cortez Masto as a strong fundraiser.

An Emerson College poll conducted from September 8 to 10 showed Laxalt with just a 1 point lead over Cortez Masto. The poll found Laxalt winning the support of 42 percent of respondents, while 41 percent backed Cortez Masto.

Last Tuesday, Don Bolduc, who has aligned himself with Trump, won the Republican Party's primary to challenge Democratic Senator Maggie Hassan, who was first elected in 2016. Republicans have pledged to spend money on the race, but Democrats feel confident about their odds due to Bolduc's right-wing policies, which could alienate moderate voters in the state that voted for Biden by more than 7 points in 2020.

Bolduc defeated New Hampshire's Senate President Chuck Morse, who was seen as the more moderate option who polled better against Hassan than Bolduc. Hassan currently has a 6.1 point lead, according to FiveThirtyEight. Hassan previously served as New Hampshire's governor from 2013 to 2017.

An Emerson College poll from September 14 to 15 found Hassan with an 11 point lead. In the poll, she received 51 percent of support, while 40 percent of respondents said they planned to vote for Bolduc.

Newsweek reached out to the Democratic National Committee and Republican National Committee for comment.

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GOP Chances of Beating Democrats for Senate Control With 50 Days to Midterm - Newsweek

President Biden is telling everyone he plans to run for a second term, but with about 50 days to the midterms, most Democrats arent sure he will follow through on that plan.

Cedric Richmond, the former Democratic lawmaker and Biden White House official, said definitively this week that its on when it comes to Biden and 2024.

Hes running and were building an infrastructure for him to run and win,Richmond toldNBC. Right now, its all an early investment in 2024 while were helping 2022.

Despite such statements, a lot of Democrats have their doubts even as their overall optimism for the fall midterms rises as Bidens approval ratings inch up and polls and voter registration numbers offer evidence of voter anger with the Supreme Courts abortion decision.

If Democrats lose the House, as most still expect, but keep the Senate majority, will Biden decide to stick with his stated plans and be the partys nominee?

If things go more poorly and Democrats lose the House and the now evenly divided Senate, will it be the kind of political blow that changes Bidens mind about running for president?

Despite his insistence, will age ultimately end up being a factor? Biden will turn 81 in November 2023.

And if former President Trump runs again and looks like an odds-on favorite to win the GOP nomination, will Biden put everything aside to run again?

Behind the scenes, Democrats are talking, and talking about the possibilities, debating the pros and cons of a Biden run.

I think a lot of the mystery is were all beholden to the never-ending political news cycle, and Trump announced for reelection like three minutes after taking office, but its not unusual for a president to be waiting until after the midterms to announce, said Democratic strategist Eddie Vale, urging Democrats to stay calm.

I think a lot of people who were speculating about him not running were bed wetting because of insanely far out poll numbers and/or have a different preferredcandidate, but every indication seems to me hes running, he said.

Biden has repeatedly said he intends to launch another presidential bid for 2024. As recently as June, he said he would not be disappointed to face Trump in a rematch. Last week, Vice President Harris largely considered the front-runner if Biden should step aside also reiterated that view.

The president has been very clear that he intends to run again, she told Chuck Todd on NBCs Meet the Press. And if he does, I will be running with him proudly.

Sources say Biden has also begun to quietly examine what a 2024 campaign might look like, while testing out messages during the midterms.

Beltway pundits have parsed every cue and nuance however slight to solidify their views. When first lady Jill Biden said this week on NBCs Today that she and her husband had not yet discussed another run, some took that as a sign that it isnt happening.

Age is a major reason for doubts about Biden.

I love the guy. I think hes done a good job as president, but I also cant see the likelihood of a guy in his 80s running again, one strategist said. Like it or not, hes old.

It is rare for a sitting president to not run for reelection. The last time that happened was with Lyndon Johnson at the height of the Vietnam war.

But the nation has never had a president as old as Biden.

The president is also the only Democrat to actually defeat Trump in the Electoral College race. That will be a factor; few Democrats see another candidate in their ranks who is widely seen as having a stronger change against Trump.

Julian Zelizer, a professor of history and public affairs at Princeton University, noted that Biden faces questions beyond his age including his handling of the economy.

As Biden took a victory lap this week for the passage of the Inflation Reduction Act, he had to contend with a split screen on cable news showing a falling stock market reacting to the news that consumer prices rose in August.

Biden has said he feels he is the only one in the Democratic Party who can defeat Trump, who turned 76 in June.

But if Trump doesnt run, Biden could face an opponent like Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who Democrats fear could put up a good fight. Age would be a contrast and possibly a factor in a Biden match-up with DeSantis, who is 44.

Every presidential election is high stakes but after four years of the Trump presidency this feels more real than ever before. Combine all of these [factors] and the questions dont go away, Zelizer said.

Those questions continued to loom around the Biden presidency earlier this year as his poll numbers fell sharply and survey after survey showed that voters largely said the country was heading in the wrong direction.

More recently, after scoring a few legislative wins, Biden has rebounded.

A New York Times-Siena College survey, published Friday, showed Biden with a 42 percent approval rating, up from 33 percent in the last poll in July.

The presidents numbers were boosted largely by Democrats who are more optimistic about his leadership, as he faced major crises in recent months including the Russian war in Ukraine, soaring gas prices and record-high inflation.

There was always a path for the president to get back to a politically strong position and its because a lot of the loss of support was from some Democrats, said Democratic strategist Joel Payne. He has clearly been able to rebuild that over the summer and that bodes well for him going into a 2024 reelection campaign.

At the same time, others are more skeptical that Biden will be able to pull off another victory.

Hes had an amazing run, probably one of the best stories in the modern political era, said one Democratic donor. But you have to know when its time to hang up your hat, even for your own legacy.

Other Democrats scoff at the naysayers.

I find it interesting that all of these so called experts wont go on the record, said Democratic strategist Rodell Mollineau. Its likely because when he does run and wins, theyre going to look foolish.

Mollineau added: I suspect these are the same people who didnt think he was going to win the first time.

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Biden says hes running. Democrats still have their doubts - The Hill

From classrooms in public schools to doctors offices, from marriage equality to expanding voting access, accessible child care and action on climate change, Democratic candidates made the case Saturday that they represent the true party fighting for freedom.

The annual Steak Fry, hosted by Polk County Democrats, attracted candidates up and down the ballot to share their visions for serving Iowa at the state and the federal levels. And as they spoke, a theme emerged.

Deidre DeJear, the gubernatorial candidate taking on Gov. Kim Reynolds, put it bluntly in her speech.

When I came to the state of Iowa, what I found was my home but, in real life, what I found was freedom, she said. I had the freedom to get an education. I had the freedom to start a small business, I had the freedom to explore what my path was going to look like.

And now as we see, those freedoms, those pathways are getting smaller and smaller, and not just for us, but if its happening to us, we can only imagine whats happening to the most vulnerable amongst us, she continued.

DeJear talked about Iowa being far ahead of the national curve on desegregating schools and legalizing gay marriage. She also pointed toward the diverse field of candidates Democrats have on the ticket this year and in leadership positions.

This is freedom, DeJear said. Freedom is on the ballot and I am sure that freedom is going to ring in the state again.

Rep. Cindy Axneemphasized some of the other freedoms she and other Democrats plan to protect, especially if they grow their numbers in Congress.

We need to eradicate these childcare deserts that weve got all over this state. We need to make sure that theres affordable housing for every single person, thats the dignity that they deserve, Axne said. Weve got to ensure that our kids have the mental health support that they need. And weve got to protect our public school system.

Axne also talked about some of the big bills Democrats have passed since President Joe Biden was inaugurated to boost Americas manufacturing power, upgrade the countrys infrastructure and ease some of the burden of the pandemic.

When he spoke, Senate candidate Mike Franken emphasized how the progress under Democrats has just gotten started and its more than possible for it to continue with more.

Democrats in the state of Iowa, lets regain the glory of yesteryear for a progressive state thats about education, health care, elder care, environment, union labor, fair wages, human dignity, and civil affairs, he said.

And State House Minority Leader Rep. Jennifer Konfrst connected what Iowans want with the principles of the Democratic Party.

Do Democrats, do Iowans want to give more tax breaks to corporations and the richest Iowan? No, Konfrst said. Do Iowans want reproductive freedom? Yes. Do Iowans want the ability to live a good life in a state where everybody is equal, you can love who you love, you can be who you want to be, you can have a job you believe in and you can make a difference with your neighbors and friends? Is that what Iowans want?

I have such good news for them, she continued. Democrats are here.

Nikoel Hytrek09/18/22

Have a story idea or something I should know? Email me at nikoel@iowastartingline.com. You can also DM me on Twitter at@n_hytrek.

Iowa Starting Line is part of an independent news network and focuses on how state and national decisions impact Iowans daily lives. We rely onyour financial supportto keep our stories free for all to read. You cancontribute to us here. Also follow us onFacebookandTwitter.

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Iowa Democrats Pitch Themselves As Real Party Of Freedom At Steak Fry - Iowa Starting Line

Yesterday was the 235th anniversary of the Constitution of the United States. It's one of the most influential documents in history and the world's oldest active codified constitution. Yet you would have never known, given the deafening silence on the social media accounts of our country's president and vice president. While they often pander to crowds, touting the importance of the Constitution, neither President Joe Biden nor Vice President Kamala Harris appeared to acknowledge Constitution Day on their social media accounts.

The Constitution is one of the greatest documents in the history of the world, so it is a little peculiar that our country's leadership failed to acknowledge Constitution Day on any of their social media platforms. Instead, President Biden and Vice President Harris spent the day tweeting about the need for abortion, the Inflation Reduction Act, and climate change. Considering both made multiple posts across different platforms celebrating National Hispanic Heritage Month on Sept. 15, just two days earlier, it's a telling sign that neither posted about the significance of Sept. 17.

Yet this lack of patriotism and appreciation for the Constitution did not stop with Biden and Harris. This slight appeared to be widespread among the Democratic Party. Neither the Senate Democrats nor House Democrats' Twitter accounts acknowledged Constitution Day. Neither did the Democrats' Twitter account. However, all managed to post about National Hispanic Heritage Month.

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) also failed to acknowledge Constitution Day but did acknowledge National Hispanic Heritage Month multiple times. But somehow, he managed to find time out of his busy day to tweet about something called "Passport Month." But when it came to Constitution Day, Schumer's Twitter had a deafening silence. And, probably to no one's surprise, neither Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) nor any of the "Squad" members appeared to acknowledge Constitution Day.

This was in stark contrast to the Republicans, and honestly, this revelation shouldn't be surprising. Unlike their left-wing counterparts, the House Republicans and Senate Republicans' Twitter accounts tweeted about Constitution Day and the 235th anniversary of our country's governing document. Sens. Ted Cruz (R-TX) and Rand Paul (R-KY) were among the many, many Republicans who tweeted about Sept. 17. Oh, and Republicans also tweeted about National Hispanic Heritage Month, effectively showing it was possible to tweet about both. Republicans decided to do so. Democrats chose not to.

But this is quite odd given the Democrats' constant rhetoric about constitutional rights. It's even stranger that 16 days after Joe "Soul of the Nation" Biden gave the most hateful and divisive speech by any president in our nation's history, at the site where the Constitution was ratified, he did not mention anything about its 235th anniversary.

The same goes for Vice President Harris. Count how many times she uses the phrase "constitutional rights" in her speeches. Yet she couldn't find the less than five seconds it takes to send out a message on any social media platform commemorating the Constitution of the United States of America.

Then again, given that Biden and the Democrats repeatedly fail to follow the Constitution's principles or adhere to many of its guidelines, maybe this slight wasn't unintentional. Perhaps it shouldn't be all that surprising that Democrats failed to celebrate Constitution Day on social media like they did National Hispanic Heritage Month or Passport Month. Clearly, Democrats have shown their priorities.

Biden, Harris, and all the Democrats that failed to acknowledge this date should be ashamed of themselves. It's disgraceful. It's indicative of the lack of patriotism the Left has for the country. When the cameras are rolling or it benefits them politically, they tout the Constitution. Yet, when it comes to honoring one of the greatest documents in human civilization, Biden and his Democrats largely were nowhere to be found. On the date that honored the 235th anniversary of the Constitution of the United States, Biden, Harris, and many others on the Left revealed their true colors and they weren't red, white, and blue.

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Biden, Harris, and other Democrats don't acknowledge anniversary of Constitution - Washington Examiner