Democrats Have a Plan to Overcome Obama in Red States
By Kyle Trygstad Posted at 5 a.m. today
Hagan in a North Carolina Democrat seeking re-election this year. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call)
As national analysts say the odds are increasingly against them, Democratic senators and senior operatives remain optimistic the partys most vulnerable incumbents can survive stiff re-election challenges, even in red states where the presidents popularity is sunk.
With his national approval ratings mired in the low 40s seven weeks out from the Nov. 4 elections, Senate Democrats are well aware of the anchor President Barack Obama is proving to be in the midterms. Its clear party strategists have had to tailor their red-state strategies around that reality on a map already tilted against them, with three principles at the crux of Democrats path to defend seats in GOP-leaning and solidly Republican states where the majority will be won or lost.
As Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee Executive Director Guy Cecil outlined in an interview last week with CQ Roll Call, its imperative for Democrats in these states to remind voters why they supported the incumbent in the first place, to over-perform generic Democratic numbers and continue to fund persuasion efforts along with getting out the vote through Election Day.
The presidents ratings are a factor in our elections, but they are not the only factor in our elections, Cecil said, noting the tens of millions of dollars being spent on advertising and the DSCCs field campaign efforts.
In interviews on Capitol Hill last week, Democratic senators were adamant that their colleagues individual profiles could outweigh the inherent connection to the unpopular president, even as Republicans were exuding a growing sense that the majority is well within reach. The most vulnerable incumbents include Sens. Mark Begich of Alaska, Mark Pryor of Arkansas, Mary L. Landrieu of Louisiana and Kay Hagan of North Carolina all but Hagan are from states the president lost by at least 14 points.
Republicans need a net gain of six seats to win control of the Senate, and they are working with a competitive map filled with friendly territory.
At the same time, the NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll released last week found just 23 percent of registered voters said the country was headed in the right direction and 40 percent approved of the job Obama is doing. The presidents approval rating has been underwater in the RealClearPolitics average for well more than a year.
Its something to be concerned about. Sure it is, of course, said Sen. Tom Harkin, a Democrat whose retirement created a vulnerable open seat in Iowa, a swing state. But, he added, It can be overcome. I got elected to the Senate when Ronald Reagan won a landslide in 1984, so you can differentiate.
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Democrats Have a Plan to Overcome Obama in Red States