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As the military campaign to recapture the city of Raqqa intensifies with the arrival of U.S. forces in Syria, and the battle for the Iraqi city of Mosul reaches its last stages, the decimation of the Islamic State groups self-styled caliphate appears imminent. In preparation for ISISs final act, much has been written on what Iraq and Syria will look like in the wake of its reign. However, beyond discussion about the terrorist diaspora that will descend upon the United States and Europe as thousands of foreign fighters return home, little attention has been paid to the future territorial ambitions of the ISIS core. In September 2014, at the height of ISISs power, local Iraqis and Syrians comprised 90 percent and 70 percent respectively of ISISs military cadre in its so-called Islamic State. When the caliphate falls, what will this core tenet of fighters -- discarded by their home communities and fluent in the jihadi organizations military and ideological tradecraft -- pick as their next theater?

It may be tempting to address this question from a military perspective alone -- especially in light of President Trumpsmultibillion-dollar fortification of the defense budget -- but an understanding of ISISs ideological infrastructure provides a more accurate guidebook. The Islamic State groups ideological beliefs and military activity are often analyzed separately, by different U.S. agencies, with de-radicalization efforts aimed at ideology, and military activity informing Americas battlefield response. However, a close read of this influential ISIS manifesto suggests that this siloed approach may be misdirecting the United States broader counterterrorism campaign. Pairing the main tenets of ISIS ideology with the groups past military activities helps to better understand the organizations operational goals, its ideological selection of targets, and the tactics it uses to ensure longevity. Using these three factors to forecast what country ISIS will seize as its next territorial conquest, Afghanistan emerges as an attractive and tenable target.

The Management of Savagery

While relatively unknown to the Western world, a booklet called The Management of Savagery: The Most Critical Stage Through Which the Umma Will Pass has been claimed by several ISIS commanders as part of the organizations curriculum. Published to the Internet in 2004 under the pseudonym Abu Bakr Naji, Management of Savagery was originally written for al-Qaeda but was rejected by leader Ayman al-Zawahiri for being too radical. Its strategy did, however, resonate with top ISIS commanders Baathist roots, and it subsequently spilled over to guide that organizations two-tiered crusade to consolidate the Muslim world territorially and ideologically.

Management of Savagery is striking because it resembles a comprehensive military plan more than the outline of a specified Islamist ideology; it outlines a series of military campaigns with the ultimate goal of restoring the caliphate and establishing an Islamic state. First, in the stage of the power of vexation and exhaustion, Naji instructs militants to exhaust the chosen state and overthrow the governing authorities, creating savagery and chaos in order to force the targeted society to suffer from the absence of security. Second, the stage of the administration of savagery prescribes the militants management of the regions of savagery, which, if successful, will enable them to consolidate control throughout the conquered territory.

ISISs Campaign Strategy Applied to Afghanistan

Afghanistan is a viable target because ISISs stage-one goal of vexing and exhausting the state has already been accomplished by domestic actors. The Taliban are resurgent in Afghanistan, and the foreign military presence is perpetual yet fluctuating. Against that backdrop, political violence, corruption, and a stagnating economy have broken down Afghanistans political space. In the eyes of the Islamic State group, this makes Afghanistan an easy operational target because the countrys lack of democracy and security helps ISIS exacerbate existing societal divides. ISISs affiliate in Afghanistan, known as the Khorasan Province, has successfully exercised this tactic to gain territory in at least seven Afghan provinces. It is important to note that similar to ISISs tactic of seizing upon historically significant territory that negates the sovereignty of Iraq and Syrias state borders, the Khorasan Province claims jurisdiction over a historical region incorporating parts of modern-day Afghanistan and Pakistan. Defining territory based upon its historical importance to Islam, as opposed to nation-state borders, furthers ISISs goal of delegitimizing Afghanistans institutions and planting fertile roots for a prospective takeover by ISIS core.

Second, Management of Savagery, in addition to ISISs record of attacks around the globe, reflects that the group seeks to eliminate what it considers apostate Muslims in addition to foreign infidels. Foreign troops in Afghanistan deployed by NATO, the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, and Australia have been frequent targets of ISISs vendetta against what it considers infidels. Additionally, similar to the Taliban, ISIS views much of Afghanistan as occupied by apostate Muslims given the countrys reenergized focus on education -- especially for women -- in the early 2000s. This apostate narrative is furthered by the fact that ethnic and tribal affiliations shape the average Afghans identity more profoundly than an adherence to Islam. Thus, Afghanistans role as host to so-called apostates and infidels makes it an attractive theater for ISIS to target both enemy groups on one territorial battleground.

Finally, looking to the regions where ISIS has most effectively acquired affiliates and sympathetic proxies -- Egypt, Libya, Pakistan -- it has done so by absorbing existing Islamist militants into its fold. In Afghanistan, the Khorasan Province is already capitalizing on the countrys historical struggle with Islamist and tribal factions. While it competes with the Taliban -- which benefits from their Deobandi and Pashtun roots in the local population -- ISIS has exploited personal and factional grievances within established militant networks, along with bribery, to co-opt defection. Former Taliban commander and Guantanamo Bay detainee Abdul Rauf Aliza defected from the Taliban and became the Khorasan Provinces deputy commander. Additionally, multiple commanders and officials of the Pakistani Taliban publicly defected to pledge allegiance to the Khorasan Province. By absorbing Taliban members and other Islamist militants into its ranks, ISIS has increased its human capital while gaining operatives with knowledge of Afghanistan and Pakistans unique histories, geographies, and socio-political environments. Notably, this method also masquerades as ISISs ability to administer and manage savagery.

While we cannot know whether ISIS will try to manufacture another caliphate after Iraq and Syria fall from its grasp, the organizations promotion of territory as a central component of its brand makes it likely that ISIS will at least attempt to recreate its claim to divinely sanctioned land. Given that the international community was blindsided by the conception of ISISs first caliphate, the United States should rely on ISISs ideology for more than a rhetorical battle about terrorisms terminology. By extending the tactics outlined in Management of Savagery to the battlefield, the United States and its allies may be able to prevent Afghanistan from becoming the next Islamic State.

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Will ISIS Rebuild in Afghanistan? - RealClearWorld

Afghanistan and Singapore yesterday signed an agreement under which Kabul will send senior officials to Singapore to attend customised programmes on public administration, civil service development, vocational training, urban planning and sustainable development.

Afghan President Mohammad Ashraf Ghani, who is in Singapore on his first official visit, witnessed the signing of the memorandum of understanding (MOU) on technical cooperation together with Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong.

Mr Ghani's visit is also the first official visit by an Afghan president to Singapore.

At the Istana, he called on President Tony Tan Keng Yam.

The two presidents reaffirmed the friendly relations between both countries, and agreed that there was scope to enhance cooperation and exchanges in areas of mutual interest, said the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in a statement.

Later, Mr Lee and Mr Ghani discussed opportunities for collaboration in areas such as public service training and anti-corruption measures. They also spoke about national and regional developments, and expressed support for the international community's efforts in the reconstruction of Afghanistan.

Afghanistan has sent 700 officials to Singapore for training in areas such as public administration and governance, under the Singapore Cooperation Programme that started in 1992.

Dr Tan and Mr Lee said Singapore will share its development experience with Afghanistan, and will also support the Central Asian country's development through the programme.

Mr Ghani was hosted to lunch by Deputy Prime Minister and Coordinating Minister for National Security Teo Chee Hean.

They discussed developments in their respective regions, and explored potential areas of bilateral and security cooperation.

Mr Ghani wrapped up his visit at a National University of Singapore Society dialogue, during which he acknowledged the challenges of terrorism, corruption and criminal networks in Afghanistan, but said the resource-rich country held many business opportunities.

He highlighted the areas of energy, mineral mining and water management as some examples.

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Afghanistan, Singapore reaffirm friendly relations - The Straits Times

LONDON: Afghanistan are set for another milestone after it was announced on Friday they will play their first match at Lords, taking on a side led by former New Zealand captain Brendon McCullum.

Now one of the worlds leading associate, or junior cricket, countries Afghanistan are closing in on becoming a Test match nation.

They are top of the International Cricket Council (ICC) Intercontinental Cup standings, with the winner set to gain Test status next year.

Their 50-over match against MCC at Lords, the home of cricket, will take place on July 11.

Two Afghan players, Mohammad Nabi and Hamid Hassan, were previously on the MCC Young Cricketers scheme.

MCC president Matthew Fleming said: I am thrilled that we will be welcoming Afghanistan to Lords this summer. I have seen first-hand the talent and passion for cricket the nation has and this fixture can only be a good thing for the ongoing development of Afghan cricket.

It is the latest landmark on a very exciting journey for Afghan cricket and MCC will need to field an extremely strong side in order to compete, the former England one-day international all-rounder added.

Published in Dawn, April 8th, 2017

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Afghanistan to make Lord's debut in July - DAWN.com

Twenty U.S.-designated terrorist organizations operate in the Afghanistan-Pakistan sub-region; seven of the 20 organizations are in Pakistan. So long as these groups maintain safe haven inside of Pakistan they will threaten long-term stability in Afghanistan. Of particular concern to us is the Haqqani Network (HQN) which poses the greatest threat to coalition forces operating in Afghanistan. General Joseph Votel, Posture Statement Before the Senate Armed Services Committee, March 2017.

The Taliban and the Haqqani network are the greatest threats to security in Afghanistan. Their senior leaders remain insulated from pressure and enjoy freedom of action within Pakistan safe havens. As long as they enjoy external enablement, they have no incentive to reconcile. The primary factor that will enable our success is the elimination of external sanctuary and support to the insurgents. General John Nicholson, Statement Before the Senate Armed Services Committee on the Situation in Afghanistan, February 2017.

After 15-plus years, the war in Afghanistan remains a strategic stalemate because defeating an enemy requires taking away its capacity and will. The Coalition and Afghan forces have hit the enemys capacity year after year but the Talibans willtheir senior leaders, support, resources, rest, regeneration, and armscontinue to benefit from sanctuary and support from Pakistans security establishment. In his testimony to the Senate Armed Services Committee (SASC) in February of this year, the theater commander, General John Nicholson, stated that he believed the war in Afghanistan was a stalemate. It has been a strategic stalemate for at least the last ten years and arguably for the last 15 years. As early as 2003 the then-top U.S. commander in Afghanistan, Lieutenant General John Vines, stated publicly that the Taliban were benefiting from Pakistans sanctuaries to regroup. So despite suffering many losses in leaders and capacity inside Afghanistan year after year, the Taliban have not quit, and are resilient in regenerative capacity. Tactical and operational momentum have ebbed and flowed throughout the war. The Coalition and its Afghan partners have made some errors, but they have improved and adapted during the course of the war. The Afghan security forces have grown in quantity and improved in quality, and have led the fight for several years. During the peak numbers of exogenous forces for the war in 2010-2011, the Coalition forces, along with their Afghan partners, achieved marked tactical gains and operational momentum. To be sure, Coalition and Afghan forces have undertaken many counterterrorism and counterinsurgency actions that have punished, disrupted, and displaced the Taliban and the Haqqani leadership and infrastructure, year after year.

Yet these gains at the tactical and operational levels have been short-lived and have generally lacked meaning in the face of the most conspicuous impediment to strategic success: Pakistans sanctuary and support for the enemy. Killing, capturing, disrupting, and displacing insurgent and terrorist enemies, fighting season after fighting season, absent genuine strategic momentum, have made this a perpetual war. It is beginning to seem like a Groundhog-Day war where fulfilling the purpose remains elusive. In theory, the purpose of war is to serve policy; in practice, if war is not linked to strategic rationale and momentum, the nature of war is to serve itself. Fighting year after year within the context of a strategic stalemate is essentially violence and war serving themselves and not policy.

General Nicholson has conceived a laudable idea for an operational method to help break the stalemate by about 2020. His idea is to invest in those forces that have demonstrated the best capacity to outfight the Taliban in most engagements: the Afghan Special Security Forces (ASSF) and the Afghan Air Force (AAF). In his recent SASC testimony, he explained his operational idea to grow the ASSF and AAF to build an overmatch in offensive capacity vis--vis the Taliban, to ultimately achieve tactical and operational momentum. The idea is to create an offensive punch that will outmatch the Taliban and break the stalemate. An offensive overmatch in the best Afghan security forces will create a tactical and operational capacity to hit the Taliban hard, disrupting, capturing, and displacing their leaders and infrastructure. This concept will create operational momentum by taking away Taliban capacity and by increasing the Afghan governments control over more key population areas. But tactical gains and operational momentum alone will not break the stalemate. Offensive punch and tactical overmatch will set the enemy back, but without strategic change in reducing the enemys external sanctuary, these gains will be impermanent. There were marked tactical gains and discernible operational momentum during the uplift of forces period in 2010-2011, but they did not break the strategic stalemate because Pakistan continued to provide sanctuary and support.

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To Break the Stalemate in Afghanistan, America Must Break Pakistan's Pathologies - The National Interest Online (blog)

Disabled people say they face social prejudice and government inaction.

By Farid Tanha

Fazluddin, a tall, thin 25-year-old who lives in Dolana, central Parwan, has a whole household to support on nothing more than disability stipends.

He himself lost his right eye and suffered multiple injuries aged just two when the family was caught in a Taleban bombardment. His mother, who now lives with him, lost her right arm in the same attack.

Fazluddin also has to support his 55-year-old aunt Suraya, who was paralysed in a grenade strike during the Russian occupation of the 1980s.

"We live in a house that stays cold all winter. We eat once a day, he told IWPR, explaining that the whole family, including his wife, had to live from the 900 US dollars the household received annually in disability payments.

We pay 50 dollars rent per month. I still owe money from my wedding. Tell me, what can I do?" he continued.

Despite an impoverished childhood, Fazluddin finished high school and has qualifications in English and computer skills. But he has been unable to find work, he said, because of his disability.

"I went everywhere. When they noticed that I was blind in one eye, they not only refused me work but also made fun of me. I tore up all my school certificates in frustration," he said, adding, "You need either powerful relations or money to achieve your basic rights in this country."

His aunt Suraya said that her experience of decades of living as a paraplegic had shown her that government assurances of aid were meaningless.

"Ive received nothing from the government except the monthly stipend, which I get with a lot of difficulty, since the day I was paralyzed, she said, adding that even reaching the bank or accessing other public buildings was often impossible due to the lack of disabled access. They promised to provide me with a plot of land to live on, but I have not yet received it. They made me many promises, but I received nothing."

Disabled people in Parwan province, just north of Kabul, say that the government has failed to meet its obligations to them despite legislation guaranteeing their rights. Local officials, in turn, say that they are doing their best with the resources available to them

Afghanistan has ratified several international conventions on disability rights, and according to its own Law of Rights and Privileges of Persons with Disabilities, government offices are supposed to fill at least three per cent of their posts with disabled people.

Wakil Ahmad Suhail, the director of labour, social affairs, martyrs and the disabled in Parwan province, admitted that this law had yet to be enforced.

Suhail said that 5,140 disabled people were registered with their office, including 300 women. All received government stipends.

But he said that the only disabled employee he knew of in a local government office was a woman in his own department.

Suhail acknowledged that the government was also committed to a number of other measures including improving education provision and providing low-cost housing for disabled people, although little progress had been made.

But other local officials said that their departments were doing the most they could to support disabled people and their families.

The director of Parwan department for refugees, Aqa Shirin Khalil, said that his office had arranged the distribution of five blocs of residential land plots to refugees, each containing 1,200 residential plots, in the Bini Arsak and Barikab areas of Bagram district.

Out of this number, 650 plots were reserved for disabled people and would be transferred to them free of charge, he continued.

"Residential plots have also been considered for disabled people in the departments future plans as well, although the number is not yet clear," Khalil said.

Parwans deputy director of education, Nizamuddin Rahimi, said that they had distributed 664 plots of land to teachers in the Hufyan Sharif area in central Parwan, including 20 plots for teachers with disabilities.

"The disabled people received the plots for free, he said.

Mirajuddin Majid, the director of guidance and hajj in Parwan, said that the ministry had allocated 523 places for Parwan residents to make the pilgrimage last year.

This quota included five disabled people, although he noted that applicants had to pay for their own hajj.

DEMANDING CHANGE

"We have always campaigned on this issue, Ahmad Zia Langari, a representative of the Afghanistan Independent Human Rights Commission (AIHRC), told IWPR. We also always highlight the problems of disabled people to the government in our annual reports.

The government needs to read our reports. The parliament should also see our reports and in turn put pressure on the government. We bring up the issue of disabled people in every meeting and gathering and in strategic and lawmaking fields and will continue campaigning."

Parwan provincial council secretary Sahmsulhaq Shaikani acknowledged that disability rights had been the subject of numerous meetings between officials and activists, but said that the government simply lacked the budget to address these problems.

"Disabled people have high expectations, Shaikhani said. The government addresses their needs to the extent we are able. Weve met government officials to discuss the problems of the disabled several times and shared their concerns. The officials promised to address the issues."

He added that when private or state institutions provide aid, disabled people were given priority.

Activists say this is far from enough.

Abdul Hakim Hamdard, the chairman of social council of the disabled people in Parwan, lost both his legs in a mine blast in 1991. He said that the problem was that national and international laws related to disability provision were simply not implemented.

Although Afghan disability law mandates that ministries, government offices, transportation facilities and all new public construction should include facilities for the disabled in their design, this is rarely the case.

Hamdard explained that his advocacy work meant that he needed to access local government offices on a daily basis. This in itself was an enormous struggle as there were no facilities for disabled people, Hamdard explained.

"Sometimes, people help us. They take our hands or carry us up. The major problem for disabled people is how to go up and down the stairs."

Despite this lack of basic provision, some disabled people manage to overcome the considerable obstacles to pursue successful careers.

Mushtari Danish, 34, a resident of Chanki Ulya village of Sayyidkhel District in Parwan, was paralysed in childhood as the result of polio.

Nonetheless, she has been working as a teacher for the last nine years, although she said it had proved terribly hard to find work.

After graduation, she said, "I went to an office and applied to be a teacher. They told me, Go away my child. Even healthy people cannot find a job and you are disabled. I was so disappointed."

Undeterred, she not only went on to find work in her chosen field but also drives and has a Corolla car, adapted by the Red Cross to have a hand-operated accelerator and brake. Last year, she completed a degree in Islamic theology in night classes at Parwans Alberuni university.

This report was produced under IWPRs Promoting Human Rights and Good Governance in Afghanistan initiative, funded by the European Union Delegation to Afghanistan.

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Afghanistan: Fighting for Disability Rights - Afghanistan | ReliefWeb - ReliefWeb