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House Republicans hammered President Biden this week for his catastrophic withdrawal from Afghanistan, and rightly so it was one of the worst foreign policy calamities in American history. But if Republicans cut off U.S. military aid to Ukraine, they will precipitate an equally disastrous foreign policy debacle and they will own it in the same way that Biden owns the exit from Afghanistan.

The heart-wrenching images of Taliban forces marching into Kabul as desperate Afghans fled are seared into the minds of the American people. They have formed an indelible stain on Bidens reputation. Before Kabul fell in August 2021, his approval rating had never dipped below 50 percent. Afterward, the floor fell out from under him and he never recovered. The botched withdrawal was the tipping point after which many Americans decided Biden was incompetent.

Republicans should look at the damage the fall of Kabul did to Bidens good name and imagine what the fall of Kyiv would do to theirs.

Already, their delays in new aid have tilted the battlefield in Russias favor. Last year, Russia made no military gains on the ground, whereas Ukraine succeeded in wiping out nearly one-third of Russias Black Sea Fleet by the end of this January. But as aid has stalled on Capitol Hill, Russia has started taking territory again. If the Republican-controlled House doesnt pass military aid soon, Ukrainians will start to run out of key weapons systems and Russia will start making major advances on the ground this year.

Knowing that Kyivs stockpiles are running dry, Russia is preparing an offensive to start when the ground dries in late spring. Right now, U.S.-provided HIMARS (High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems) hold Russian forces at a distance. But if those missiles, as well as small-arms ammunition and 155mm artillery shells, are not replenished, Russia will begin to break through Ukrainian defenses.

Today, U.S. air defense systems keep Russian bombers out of the sky and allow Ukrainian forces to shoot down Russias drones and missiles. But if Ukraine runs out of missile defense interceptors, Russian planes will be able to bomb Ukrainian front-line positions with impunity. They will also be able to attack Ukraines critical infrastructure, plunging Ukrainian cities into darkness and crippling the nations economy. Then, they will almost certainly start carpet-bombing Ukrainian cities, forcing Ukraine to use its dwindling supply of interceptors to defend its civilian population and leaving its front lines exposed.

Eventually, as the interceptors run out, the civilian population will be left defenseless. Imagine the sight of manned Russian bombers flying over Ukrainian cities and devastating them. The result would be a humanitarian catastrophe. Russia would inflict civilian casualties on a scale unseen in Europe since World War II, intentionally targeting schools, hospitals and residential buildings to break Ukraines will. (If you doubt it, just look at Russias brutal targeting and massacre of civilians during its barbaric 2016 air campaign in Aleppo, Syria.) A massive wave of refugees would begin fleeing the country, further demolishing the economy.

With air superiority, Russia could target not just Ukraines population and civilian infrastructure but also its domestic defense industry. Ukrainian-produced weapons such as the MAGURA V5 sea drone have been used (along with U.S.-made long-range anti-ship missiles) to smash Moscows Black Sea Fleet and force the Russian navy to withdraw from Crimean ports and Ukrainian territorial waters. This has allowed Ukraine to resume grain exports, which are critical to its economy. But if Ukraine runs out of anti-ship capabilities, Russian naval forces will return allowing them to target the critical port city of Odessa, cut off grain shipments and target civilian populations in western Ukraine, who will be newly exposed because of the depletion of Ukraines air defenses.

While Ukraine would not likely fall this year, the conditions would be set for a Russian victory in 2025 just as (Republicans hope) Donald Trump takes office. So, Ukraines catastrophic collapse could well happen on the GOPs watch, not Bidens. Imagine the outrage as stunned Americans watch Russian forces marching into Kyiv, slaughtering and pillaging as they did in Bucha at the start of the war. Whom do Republicans think Americans would hold responsible for the atrocities playing out on their screens?

Indeed, the political repercussions in many ways would be worse this time. At least in Afghanistan, Biden could argue that the time had come to pull U.S. troops out of harms way. But in Ukraine, there are no U.S. troops in harms way. Republicans would have abandoned Ukraine not to save American lives but to save money. That might not be as popular a decision as they think when Americans are seeing the lifeless bodies of Ukrainian women and children on their televisions.

What about the possibility of letting Europe make up for these weapons shortfalls? The simple answer is: Europeans dont have the stockpiles to do so. Only the U.S. has the available stocks of ammunition, armored vehicles and their ammunition, and air defense interceptors to affect the trajectory of the conflict dramatically over the coming weeks and months, says Fred Kagan, the director of the Critical Threats Project at the American Enterprise Institute, where Im a senior fellow.

Heres the bottom line: Without U.S. aid, Putins forces will begin marching toward Kyiv and Ukraine will become the next Afghanistan. So for Republicans, a time for choosing has arrived: Unless you want to be blamed for the fall of Kyiv the way Biden is blamed for the fall of Kabul, send military aid to Ukraine.

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Opinion | Republicans must aid Ukraine, or theyll fall, too - The Washington Post

This past week, the House Foreign Affairs Committee held hearings on the Biden administrations controversial withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021. Retired Gens. Mark A. Milley and Kenneth McKenzie, who both served in leadership roles under President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump, testified and faced questions from congressional leaders from both parties. In explaining Washingtons failures in Afghanistan, Milley told Congress that the U.S. could not forge a nation. He has previously stated that the U.S. had lost the war.

The hearings are not related to Congress bipartisan Afghanistan War Commission, which is investigating the entire 20-year period of U.S. involvement in Afghanistan and whose report will be released later. Rather, they are an effort by congressional Republicans to draw negative attention to the Biden administrations foreign policy in the runup to the November presidential election. As such, the hearings have become a renewed focal point for political narratives about blame. But they also create an opportunity to consider counterfactual hypothetical scenarios that could expand our understanding of the U.S failure in Afghanistan.

For many Democrats as well as Republicans, the mishandling of the withdrawal is seen as a moral blight on the U.S., which having first broken Afghanistan then walked away. Even for the majority of U.S. citizens who believed leaving was the right thing to do, the chaotic nature of the withdrawal itself and the failure to adequately protect Washingtons Afghan allies during and after the withdrawal have caused concern. A separate U.S. State Department report from 2022 traced the roots of the botched evacuation to the policies of both the Biden and Trump administrations.

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The U.S. Failure in the Afghanistan War Wasn't the Withdrawal | WPR - World Politics Review

The group that has been linked to the deadly terrorist attack in Moscow on Friday is the Islamic State affiliate in Afghanistan called Islamic State Khorasan Province, or ISIS-K.

ISIS-K was founded in 2015 by disaffected members of the Pakistani Taliban, who then embraced a more violent version of Islam. The group saw its ranks cut roughly in half, to about 1,500 to 2,000 fighters, by 2021 from a combination of American airstrikes and Afghan commando raids that killed many of its leaders.

The group got a dramatic second wind soon after the Taliban toppled the Afghan government that year. During the U.S. military withdrawal from the country, ISIS-K carried out a suicide bombing at the international airport in Kabul in August 2021 that killed 13 U.S. troops and as many as 170 civilians.

The attack raised ISIS-Ks international profile, positioning it as a major threat to the Talibans ability to govern.

Since then, the Taliban have been fighting pitched battles against ISIS-K in Afghanistan. So far, the Talibans security services have prevented the group from seizing territory or recruiting large numbers of former Taliban fighters bored in peacetime among the worst-case scenarios laid out after Afghanistans Western-backed government collapsed.

President Biden and his top commanders have said the United States would carry out over-the-horizon strikes from a base in the Persian Gulf against ISIS and Qaeda insurgents who threaten the United States and its interests overseas.

Indeed, Gen. Michael E. Kurilla, the head of the militarys Central Command, told a House committee on Thursday that ISIS-K retains the capability and the will to attack U.S. and Western interests abroad in as little as six months with little to no warning.

ISIS is clearly seeking to project its external operations well beyond its home turf. Counterterrorism officials in Europe say that in recent months they have snuffed out several nascent ISIS-K plots to attack targets there.

In a post on its official Telegram account in January, ISIS-K said it was behind a bombing attack that killed 84 people in Kerman, Iran, during a memorial procession for Maj. Gen. Qassim Suleimani, a revered Iranian commander who was killed in an American drone strike in 2020.

ISIS-K, which has repeatedly threatened Iran over what it says is its polytheism and apostasy, has claimed responsibility for several previous attacks there.

Now, the Islamic State has claimed responsibility for the concert hall attack in Moscow, and U.S. officials connected it specifically to ISIS-K.

ISIS-K has been fixated on Russia for the past two years and frequently criticizes President Vladimir V. Putin in its propaganda, said Colin P. Clarke, a counterterrorism analyst at the Soufan Group, a security consulting firm based in New York. ISIS-K accuses the Kremlin of having Muslim blood in its hands, referencing Moscows interventions in Afghanistan, Chechnya and Syria.

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What We Know About ISIS-K, the Group That Has Been Linked to the Moscow Attack - The New York Times

Growing up in Afghanistan,Tahir Shaaranwas endlessly curious about the world around him including the seemingly endless conflicts that engulfed his country.

I was always thinking about the connection between me and my surroundings and how the universe is functioning What is the meaning of being here? and those kinds of complicated philosophical questions, he says.

Shaaran found at least some of the answers he was seeking in physics and quantum physics in particular. He would go on to spendnearly twodecades studying and working around the world before returning to Afghanistan to work as director-general of its nuclear energy agency an effort, he says, to use his knowledge to help his country.

Now a visiting scholar in the University of Torontos department of physics in the Faculty of Arts & Science, Shaaran is teaching the next generation of scientists and says hes once again reminded of educations power to drive change and social progress.

So many people who had the right education and skills to help Afghanistan in terms of development ended up having to leave, he says. At the end of the day, its about humanity the crisis in Afghanistan is not just local to that country. Even though it feels like something may not directly affect us, the consequences of such situations are much bigger than for just one place or group of people.

A lot of the time, were looking for quick fixes, but we have to advocate for long-term, sustainable solutions and we can only do that through education.

Born during the Soviet invasion in Afghanistan in the 1980s, Shaaran left his native Bamyan province with his family when he was still a young child due to civil unrest in the region. He was raised in Mazar-e-Sharif in northern Afghanistan and later fled to Europe in 1999 following persecution and attacks on the minority Hazara community to which his family belonged.

Settling in the United Kingdom, Shaaran completed several degreesin physics at University College London. Throughout his studies, he collaborated with international institutions, including the Rutherford Appleton Laboratory in the U.K. and the neutron-scattering facility at Institut LaueLangevin in France.

He went on to work abroad on atomic and nuclear physics, including at the Max Planck Institute for Nuclear Physics in Germany, the French Alternative Energies and Atomic Energy Commission (CEA) and the Institute of Photonic Science in Spain.

Yet, Afghanistan was never far from his mind and he began thinking about how his studies could help improve the economic and social situation back home.

I had met the vice-president of Afghanistan in Germany and told him about my plan: the dream of building a national research centre for science and technology back in Afghanistan, Shaaran says.

I wanted to have a bigger impact, so I thought the research centre was something that could help more people.

He was invited to Kabul to meet then-president Ashraf Ghani. While there was no money to fund his research centre dream, Shaaran was tapped to become director-general of Afghanistans Nuclear Energy Agency in 2018 a job he hoped to slowly expand to include a research element. At first, he says was encouraged by the governments stated openness to scientific progress and development, but soon found himself disillusioned as the political and security situation in the country deteriorated.

I didnt receive the support the president had promised, Shaaran recalls. Some of it was understandable, as there was a war and a complicated political situation, but I had a feeling the system was going to collapse so I resigned in early 2021.

Looking back, he says his exit came just in time the Taliban captured Kabul later that year and the United States withdrew its military. The situation remains volatile, with a crackdown on womens rights, threats of terrorism, extreme poverty and other challenges.

In a way, we are all responsible for what has happened to Afghanistan from human rights activists to the police to policymakers [because] we didnt think about how we could build the country independently without relying on anyone from the outside, says Shaaran, who has been a longtime advocate for human rights and the rights of Afghanistans minority Hazara population.

Shaaran says teaching at U of T helps keep him inspired and optimistic about the future thanks in no small part to a steady stream of engaged physics students. He also leads an advanced physics lab this semester that offers 40 different experiments for five different courses.

His expertise allows him to supervise a range of projects, covering topics from optics to particle physics, and help students progress through their experiments. In addition to that, he is a great colleague willing to learn from more experienced members from the team, while sharing his expertise with teaching assistants and junior colleagues, says Shaarans colleagueAnia Harlick, an assistant professor, teaching stream.

Tahirbrings considerable expertise in theoretical and nuclear physics from his work in academia and at Afghanistans nuclear agency, adds ProfessorKimberly Strong, chair of the department of physics.

He has been actively engaged in the life of the department this year, and it has been such a great pleasure hosting him here.

As for his ongoing advocacy efforts, Shaaran continues tospeak with politicians and organize rallies and workshops to ensure Afghanistan and its people remain in the public consciousness.

Despite all the difficulties, Im an optimist because when I call someone in Afghanistan even in a remote area and even though young women and girls are not allowed to go to school they still have drive and hope, he says. Many people send me emails or texts saying they are looking for online education as they want to learn.

Those small things give me a lot of hope.

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U of T visiting scholar pairs Afghanistan advocacy with a passion for physics - University of Toronto

Five years ago this month, an American-backed Kurdish and Arab militia ousted Islamic State fighters from a village in eastern Syria, the groups last sliver of territory.

Since then, the organization that once staked out a self-proclaimed caliphate across Iraq and Syria has metastasized into a more traditional terrorist group a clandestine network of cells from West Africa to Southeast Asia engaged in guerrilla attacks, bombings and targeted assassinations.

None of the groups affiliates have been as relentless as the Islamic State in Khorasan, which is active in Afghanistan, Pakistan and Iran and has set its sights on attacking Europe and beyond. U.S. officials say the group carried out the attack near Moscow on Friday, killing scores of people and wounding many others.

In January, Islamic State Khorasan, or ISIS-K, carried out twin bombings in Iran that killed scores and wounded hundreds of others at a memorial service for Irans former top general, Qassim Suleimani, who was targeted in a U.S. drone strike four years earlier.

The threat from ISIS, Avril D. Haines, the director of national intelligence, told a Senate panel this month, remains a significant counterterrorism concern. Most attacks globally taken on by ISIS have actually occurred by parts of ISIS that are outside of Afghanistan, she said.

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ISIS Affiliate Linked to Moscow Attack Has Global Ambitions - The New York Times