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But it also signaled that, nearly 16 years on, many years of American entanglement may remain.

Even before the presidents speech, the American military and Afghan leaders were laying long-term plans. Mr. Ghani has a new four-year plan for the war, extending through the 2020 fighting season, and it includes doubling his armys special forces. The American military has a $6.5-billion plan to make the Afghan air force self-sufficient and end its overreliance on American air power by 2023.

The Taliban have long-range plans, too. While their attempts to actually hold seized provincial capitals have failed often because of intensive intervention by American air power, aided by Special Operations troops many provincial centers remain little more than islands, surrounded by hostile countryside.

Taliban fighters can create roadblocks and ambushes in almost any part of the country, disrupting commerce and exacting an ever-growing human toll. Most of the 3,000 civilians killed annually are victims of the insurgents. And with Taliban control of most of Helmand Province, where 80 percent of Afghanistans opium is produced, Taliban coffers are full, both from taxing the drug and trafficking in it.

The insurgents, too, suffer high casualties; one senior American military official put their losses at 10,000 a year. Only five years ago, American military intelligence officials put the Talibans entire strength at 20,000 men, yet they seem to have no trouble replenishing their numbers.

Ask the Taliban about that, and they have a ready answer.

Hajji Naqibullah, an insurgent commander from Sangin District, cited Hajji Amanullah, who had 13 members of his family killed in battle, all replaced by his nephews. And Mullah Abdul Salam had four sons killed, but his fifth volunteered and is now a local commander.

Hajji Naqibullah said three of his own cousins were killed during the fight in Sangin, where more American and British soldiers died than anywhere else in Afghanistan, and which fell to the insurgents in March after a yearlong campaign. The three were brothers, and their widowed mother had one son left, who joined after they died. His mother is now living with widows and orphans, Hajji Naqibullah said.

Somewhere in Kandahar Province Monday morning, the Talibans military commander for the south, a member of the groups ruling Quetta Shura, tuned in at 5:30 a.m. to the BBCs Pashto service to hear a translation of Mr. Trumps speech. Like many Taliban leaders, he said, he had hoped to hear Mr. Trump make good on early vows to quit Afghanistan.

This is not good for the people of Afghanistan, said the commander, who did not want his name or even precise location identified for security reasons.

He should realize Afghanistan is not like it was during the Bush and Obama administrations, he said. And we are not going to surrender; we are not going to give up; well fight this war for another 16 years.

Reporting was contributed by Taimoor Shah from Kandahar, Afghanistan; Fahim Abed and Jawad Sukhanyar from Kabul; and Helene Cooper from Jidda, Saudi Arabia.

A version of this article appears in print on August 23, 2017, on Page A1 of the New York edition with the headline: Afghan Victory Looks More Distant, 15 Years On.

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What an Afghanistan Victory Looks Like Under the Trump Plan - New York Times