Time for the US to take a step back from Afghanistan – The Hill (blog)
Otto von Bismarck said, The whole of the Balkans is not worth the bones of a single Pomeranian grenadier. America should apply the same reasoning to Afghanistan.
This month we learned the U.S. Marines are back in Helmand, Afghanistans most violent province and the center of opium poppy production, and their mission may expand. President Trump will soon decide if he should send 8,400 more troops there for the latest chapter in Americas longest war. Should he?
And dont take my word for it: the Talban has rejected peace talks with the Afghan government as surrendering to the enemy and against Islam.
The Afghans have seen off every visitor and invader, from Alexander the Great to the U.S. Central Command, so why spend another dollar there? For example, the regional transport network has avoided Afghanistan and the enthusiasts for a New Silk Road or One Belt, One Road havent absorbed that the world is avoiding Afghanistan not out of stupidity but out of hard-won experience.
Yes, there is wealth to be had: Russian, British, and American geologists have found that Afghanistan has enormous untapped mineral resources, valued at $1 to $3 trillion. The minerals are in the ground, sure, but theres no way to get them out so theyre effectively worth nothing. And theres no way to get them out because the country is violent and corrupt which scares away prudent investors.
In 2008, the Chinese won the rights to the Aynak copper mine for $3 billion and an alleged $30 million bribe to the minister of mines. In 2017, no copper has yet been mined and the Chinese executive heading the project has been expelled from the Communist party for corruption. The only good news, if you can call it that, has been the recent Taliban green light for the restart of the project.
Wise Western investors should temporarily cede the field to the Chinese, Pakistanis, and Iranians our enemies and frenemies and let them try to make something of it. Afghanistan will still want friends in the West and we should exercise some of that recently derided strategic patience until the time is right and the Chinese have worn out their welcome when the Afghans realize they wont create any jobs. Dealing with Afghanistan should be like buying a used car let someone else take the loss and get it later at a savings. In this case, the savings of American lives and the bandwidth our leaders can devote to tractable issues.
What should the U.S. do?
We did our best in Afghanistan, but its time to move on.
James D. Durso is the managing director at consultancy firm Corsair LLC. He was a professional staff member of the 2005 Defense Base Closure and Realignment Commission and the Commission on Wartime Contracting in Iraq and Afghanistan, and served as a U.S. Navy officer for 20 years specializing in logistics and security assistance. His overseas military postings were in Kuwait and Saudi Arabia, and he served in Iraq as a civilian transport advisor with the Coalition Provisional Authority. He served afloat as supply officer of the submarine USS SKATE (SSN 578).
The views expressed by contributors are their own and are not the views of The Hill.
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Time for the US to take a step back from Afghanistan - The Hill (blog)
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