The Talibans Plan to Rebuild and Legitimize al-Qaeda – Geopoliticalmonitor.com
In addition to plunging the Middle East back into turmoil, the Israel-Gaza crisis has resulted in entities around the world seeking to exploit the palpable tensions, and has even led some young Americans to re-evaluate al-Qaedas past comments on Palestine. At the same time, the global jihadist group itself is showing concerning signs of revival, having found refuge in Afghanistan under the Taliban.
The current Taliban regime has renewed its symbiotic relationship with the remnants of al-Qaeda. And though their global return may not be imminent, it must be remembered that the terrorist group is laying low by choice. Under this arrangement, al-Qaeda has agreed to stay under the radar, for now, in order to aid the Talibans international image of upholding their promise to prevent extremist organizations from using Afghanistan as a safe haven. Yet al-Qaeda views the Taliban-controlled country as precisely thata base in which they can regrow and expand.
Those who lobby to recognize the Taliban make the case that they have changed and acknowledged their missteps. These individuals claim that security in Afghanistan has increased under the Taliban, seeming to forget or ignore the fact that the Taliban themselves were the biggest threat to civilian lives prior to seizing power. They argue the Taliban has stopped opium production, but appear oblivious to the fact that thats due to the groups diversification into methamphetamines. They insist that the Taliban is committed to rebuilding the nation and that engaging with the group will help to moderate them when it comes to issues like state-sanctioned misogyny and harboring terrorists. There is even a perception that al-Qaeda is unlikely to reconstitute in Afghanistan. But ground realities prove otherwise.
Across the last two decades, al-Qaeda has had to balance the twin tasks of legitimization and grassroots mobilization with the often-conflicting goals of maintaining an exclusive organization characterized by tight discipline, restricted membership, and doctrinal purity. With the Talibans return to power in Afghanistan, however, al-Qaeda now has the opportunity to reconcile these issues by achieving political integration with the Taliban, alongside an armed struggle for global jihad. This approach can be traced back to one man in particular: al-Qaedas recently killed leader, the Egyptian doctor, Ayman al-Zawahiri.
The strategy is a response to three factors that limited al-Qaedas effectiveness while the group hid out in Pakistan during the War on Terrorstructural incongruence due to the loss of its leaders in U.S. counter-terrorism operations, ideological competition with ISIS for control of the global jihadist narrative, and the problem of legitimacy with emerging generations of extremists. A shift towards greater incorporation within the Taliban, as laid out by al-Zawahiri himself, is aimed at avoiding potential schisms as part of a comprehensive organizational transformation and serves to insulate al-Qaeda from future counter-terrorism operations.
Upon taking over as al-Qaeda leader after bin Ladens death in 2011, al-Zawahiri initially linked ideology with tactics, reiterating the organizations identity as a violent movement tasked with the revolutionary overthrow of regimes across the Islamic world. Over time, the necessity to survive and stay relevant forced al-Zawahiri to revise al-Qaedas ideology, or risk divisions and dismemberment.
In September 2013, al-Zawahiri issued his seminal General Guidelines for the Work of Jihad, in which he emphasized the need for self-discipline. He noted that al-Qaedas strategy is a long one, and jihad is in need of safe bases, adding, If we are forced to fight [local regimes], then we must make it clear that our struggle against them is a part of our resistance against the Crusader onslaught. Although al-Zawahiri mentioned the West as the first priority target, he also knew that executing a more sophisticated local strategy would aid al-Qaedas long-term development, by guaranteeing an operational space in which they could function and grow. In other words, al-Qaeda needed local allies whom they could depend on for protectionlike the Taliban.
The predictably catastrophic evacuation of Western forces from Afghanistan and the Talibans immediate takeover thereafter thus enabled al-Qaeda to meet a key expectation al-Zawahiri had set outnamely, that the terrorist group and its affiliates could survive long wars with the U.S. and its closest allies, which would bleed the West of its resources and undermine its influence globally.
According to a June 2023 UN report, senior al-Qaeda leaders in Afghanistan are primarily located in Kabul, Kunar, Kandahar, and Helmand, and number in the dozens. In terms of foot soldiers, there are around 400 al-Qaeda fighters in Afghanistan and up to 2,000 if relatives and sympathizers are included. These networks operate in the southern, middle, and eastern parts of the country and maintain a low profile, attempting to limit their communications as much as possible to evade monitoring by international counter-terrorism agencies. Al-Qaeda has also established safe houses in Kabul, Helmand, Farah, and Herat, where a new al-Qaeda media apparatus has been set up.
That same report declares that al-Qaeda training sites have been created in Helmand, Zabul, and Nangarhar and that eastern Afghanistan especially, Nuristan and Kunar provinces in particular, is also host to al-Qaeda camps, one of which is specifically dedicated to training suicide bombers. Dozens of foreign terrorist fighters (FTFs) from the Middle East and North Africa have arrived in these locations thus far.
Setting up such facilities is one of al-Qaedas main goals at present, as the group is currently in a restructuring phase. Their other objectives consist of building operational capability; recruiting and mobilizing; conducting outreach with allies and affiliates; and developing bases of support. In addition to the Afghan Taliban, al-Qaeda is supported by al-Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS), which is made up predominantly of jihadists from Pakistan. AQIS fighters are located in Kandahar, Helmand, Herat, Farah, and Nimruz provinces.
As al-Zawahiri envisioned, al-Qaedas cultivation of infrastructure and personnel in Afghanistan is designed to offer the terrorist group safety and connectivity. Senior leaders are primarily situated near the border with Pakistan, to ensure they can move back and forth unhindered. The locations of training camps and safe houses along the borders of southwest Pakistan and Iran provide further insulation from counter-terrorism operations, as well as a gateway to the Middle East. Kabul then serves as the mainframe that brings these constituent parts together, with all of this activity conducted under the protection of the Taliban regime.
Al-Qaedas bureaucratic nature means its layers of administrative responsibilities and standard operating procedures have made working in tandem with the Taliban regime all the more seamless. With the support of the proscribed Haqqani Network, who are responsible for killing thousands of Afghans and hundreds of coalition soldiers, al-Qaedas members have sought employment in the Talibans law enforcement and public administration agencies to protect and oversee their cells across Afghanistan. To demonstrate their loyalty, in return, al-Qaeda members have offered their backing and protection to top Taliban figures.
An example of this co-dependent dynamic in action involves Taj Mir Jawad, a senior Taliban commander and member of the Haqqani Network. He was also a former leader of the Kabul Network, a group comprising Taliban and al-Qaeda elements that coordinated suicide attacks against the U.S. and other coalition troops. Jawad is now the Deputy Director of the Taliban General Directorate of Intelligence, whose Department 12, which oversees all FTFs in Afghanistan, also supervises al-Qaedas activity within the country.
The Taliban governors of Kapisa and Nuristan, Qari Ehsanullah Baryal and Hafiz Muhammad Agha Hakeem respectively, are also linked to al-Qaeda. Baryal is said to have been a senior leader of the Kabul Network alongside Taj Mir Jawad. Hakeem is closely tied to Qari Zakir, who was in charge of the Haqqani Networks suicide operations as well as the Talibans special forces unit known as the Badri 313 battalion, which was created with the help of al-Qaeda.
The Taliban gives al-Qaeda members monthly welfare payments, some of which trickle down to affiliates like AQIS. Al-Qaeda training manuals are used at the facilities of the Taliban Ministry of Defense, whose training director is an al-Qaeda member. The head of the Ministry of the Interior, Sirajuddin Haqqani, retains deep ties to al-Qaeda, and, accordingly, his office has been handing out identity documents to al-Qaeda members across Afghanistan. The Talibans supreme leader, Hibatullah Akhundzada, has called for continued protection of al-Qaedas members.
First under bin Laden and then al-Zawahiri, al-Qaeda helped the Taliban and Haqqani Network establish a solid resistance base in Pakistan against the U.S. and allied forces, which led to a Taliban resurgence. Al-Zawahiri also collaborated with the Haqqani Network to assist them in consolidating their power in Afghanistan over other Taliban factions. The claim that there is a clear distinction between the Taliban, al-Qaeda, and Islamic State Khorasan Province (IS-KP) too, is not only debatable, but reveals a deeply flawed understanding, as the Haqqani Network serves as the bridge between these entities.
The inextricable links between al-Qaeda and the Taliban have been further consolidated with marriage and kinship ties, the pledging of bayah (oath of allegiance), and a shared history on the battlefield, where al-Qaeda fighters combating Western forces on the frontlines alongside the Taliban. So close was the bond between the Taliban and al-Qaeda that al-Zawahiri himself was discovered living in a palatial Haqqani-owned villa in Kabuls embassy quarter when he was killed in an American drone strike on July 31, 2022. It is also unlikely that he was the only terrorist being housed in the center of the capitalshould Western embassies eventually reopen in Kabul, they too may find their neighbors to be al-Qaeda members.
One of al-Zawahiris legacies was developing and enhancing these crucial relationships to ensure al-Qaeda remained relevant, albeit in a deliberately understated way. By demonstrating strategic patience, al-Qaeda has successfully entrenched itself within the Taliban by diversifying in proto-governance, which has been designed to build deeper roots within Afghan society, to garner the Talibans support and operate safely without the concern of betrayal or expulsion. Al-Qaeda remains a clandestine army in Afghanistan, but under the blueprint laid out by al-Zawahiri, it is now also a key element of the Talibans political infrastructure.
Whether practical or aspirational, al-Qaeda retains the belief that it is a self-appointed vanguard of the global jihadist movement whose actions will spearhead the removal of apostate rulers from the Middle East and North Africa. As long as Afghanistan remains dystopian under Taliban rule, al-Qaeda will be able to flourish and nurture a new generation of FTFs.
Some have underestimated the threat that al-Qaeda poses today. Others fail to grasp the degree of infiltration al-Qaeda has achieved within the Taliban administration at both the local and national levels. Al-Qaeda is carefully recalibrating, recruiting, training, and networkingboth with the regime in Afghanistan as well as other regional affiliates thanks to patronage, sponsorship, and support from the Taliban. It is premature to pen al-Qaedas obituary. In fact, it has been written countless times these past two decades, with every American president since 9/11 having claimed victory over them.
The siren song about recognizing the Taliban will not change their fundamental positions on al-Qaeda, who in turn can now abuse tensions within the Islamic world in light of the current crisis in the Middle East. Conferring legitimacy upon the regime could lead to future scenarios where foreign officials find themselves receiving a Taliban guard of honor with al-Qaeda fighters forming part of the contingent. Diplomats may even participate in meetings with the Taliban while al-Qaeda members serve as note-takers. Those advocating for recognition must consider whether they are willing to accept that sobering reality.
Sajjan M. Gohel is a Visiting Teacher at the London School of Economics and the author of the forthcoming book Doctor, Teacher, Terrorist: The Life and Legacy of Al-Qaeda Leader Ayman al-Zawahiri by Oxford University Press.
Victoria Jones is a Senior Research Fellow at the Asia-Pacific Foundation. Additionally, she is the chief editor of INTERZINE, a digital media platform that uses history to contextualize contemporary global issues.
The views expressed in this article belong to the authors alone and do not necessarily reflect those of Geopoliticalmonitor.com.
See original here:
The Talibans Plan to Rebuild and Legitimize al-Qaeda - Geopoliticalmonitor.com
- Afghanistan Protection Analysis Update - Update on protracted-crisis and climate-related protection risks trends, May ... - ReliefWeb - May 23rd, 2024 [May 23rd, 2024]
- Three years after the US exit, Afghanistan still needs our help - The Hill - May 23rd, 2024 [May 23rd, 2024]
- From Zambia to Afghanistan, WFP warns El Nino's extreme weather is causing a surge in hunger - KPRC Click2Houston - May 23rd, 2024 [May 23rd, 2024]
- Fresh floods in Afghanistan kill at least 60 after heavy rain brings devastation - The Guardian - May 23rd, 2024 [May 23rd, 2024]
- At least 50 dead after flash flooding in northern Afghanistan - The Guardian - May 11th, 2024 [May 11th, 2024]
- Flash floods kill more than 300 people in northern Afghanistan - NPR - May 11th, 2024 [May 11th, 2024]
- Death toll from Afghanistan's floods rises to 160: Officials - theSun - May 11th, 2024 [May 11th, 2024]
- Why Counterterrorism in Afghanistan and Pakistan Still Matters - United States Institute of Peace - May 11th, 2024 [May 11th, 2024]
- At least 50 people dead after flash floods in Afghanistan - The Associated Press - May 11th, 2024 [May 11th, 2024]
- Flash floods kill more than 300 people in northern Afghanistan after heavy rains, UN says - ABC News - May 11th, 2024 [May 11th, 2024]
- IRC: At least 250 lives lost in major flooding in Afghanistan; thousands of families cut off from essential services - International Rescue Committee - May 11th, 2024 [May 11th, 2024]
- Flash floods kill more than 300 people in northern Afghanistan after heavy rains, UN says - The Bakersfield Californian - May 11th, 2024 [May 11th, 2024]
- The Taliban warn journalists and experts against cooperating with Afghanistan International TV - The Associated Press - May 11th, 2024 [May 11th, 2024]
- Afghanistan's 'Deadliest' Flash Flood:Hundreds of Houses Wiped Out Within Seconds in Harrowing Video - The Daily Gazette - May 11th, 2024 [May 11th, 2024]
- Flash floods kill scores of people in northern Afghanistan video - The Guardian - May 11th, 2024 [May 11th, 2024]
- More than 300 dead in Afghanistan flash floods: WFP - The Caledonian-Record - May 11th, 2024 [May 11th, 2024]
- More than 300 dead in Afghanistan flash floods: WFP - The Elkhart Truth - May 11th, 2024 [May 11th, 2024]
- At least 150 killed in Afghanistan flash flooding Public Radio of Armenia - Public Radio of Armenia Official Web site - May 11th, 2024 [May 11th, 2024]
- Russia's Growing Ties With Afghanistan Are More Symbolism Than Substance - Carnegie Endowment for International Peace - May 11th, 2024 [May 11th, 2024]
- More than 300 people killed in Afghanistan as flash floods devastate region - The Irish Times - May 11th, 2024 [May 11th, 2024]
- Death toll from floods in Afghanistan increases to over 200 - Mehr News Agency - English Version - May 11th, 2024 [May 11th, 2024]
- Horror moment catastrophic floods tear through towns & roads turn into rivers as rain swamps Afghanistan... - The US Sun - May 11th, 2024 [May 11th, 2024]
- Flash floods kill more than 300 in northern Afghanistan after heavy rain - BreakingNews.ie - May 11th, 2024 [May 11th, 2024]
- The Islamic State's branch in Afghanistan is at war with the world - The Economist - March 28th, 2024 [March 28th, 2024]
- Opinion: The Afghan refugee crisis is a migratory time bomb that may soon go off - The Globe and Mail - March 28th, 2024 [March 28th, 2024]
- Don't Betray the Women of Afghanistan - Foreign Affairs Magazine - March 28th, 2024 [March 28th, 2024]
- She secretly educated herself to escape Afghanistan. Now, she's working to help women still there - NBC News - March 28th, 2024 [March 28th, 2024]
- Al Qaeda Is Backand Thrivingin Afghanistan - Foreign Policy - March 28th, 2024 [March 28th, 2024]
- After Attack in Russia, Focus Turns to ISKP in Afghanistan and Central Asia - The Diplomat - March 28th, 2024 [March 28th, 2024]
- The Islamic State's Afghanistan-based affiliate is emerging as a global menace - Defense One - March 28th, 2024 [March 28th, 2024]
- Opinion | Republicans must aid Ukraine, or theyll fall, too - The Washington Post - March 28th, 2024 [March 28th, 2024]
- Woman shares story of educating herself, escaping Afghanistan and helping others - NBC News - March 28th, 2024 [March 28th, 2024]
- The U.S. Failure in the Afghanistan War Wasn't the Withdrawal | WPR - World Politics Review - March 28th, 2024 [March 28th, 2024]
- What We Know About ISIS-K, the Group That Has Been Linked to the Moscow Attack - The New York Times - March 28th, 2024 [March 28th, 2024]
- UK special forces are accused of killing civilians during the conflict in Afghanistan - KULR-TV - March 28th, 2024 [March 28th, 2024]
- U of T visiting scholar pairs Afghanistan advocacy with a passion for physics - University of Toronto - March 28th, 2024 [March 28th, 2024]
- They fled Afghanistan after Bidens withdrawal. Now in the US, they hope Trump wins - The Guardian - March 28th, 2024 [March 28th, 2024]
- From Afghanistan to Moscow's Crocus City Hall, The Monocle Daily 2731 - Radio - Monocle - March 28th, 2024 [March 28th, 2024]
- ISIS Affiliate Linked to Moscow Attack Has Global Ambitions - The New York Times - March 28th, 2024 [March 28th, 2024]
- Robina Azizi Fled the Taliban. Now She's Saving Girls' Education in Afghanistan - The Daily Beast - March 28th, 2024 [March 28th, 2024]
- Opinion: Afghanistan is becoming a safe haven for terrorists again - The Globe and Mail - March 28th, 2024 [March 28th, 2024]
- Afghanistan secures third place in NSDF Futsal Championship - Amu TV - March 28th, 2024 [March 28th, 2024]
- What is ISIS-K, the terror group allegedly responsible for the Moscow concert hall attack? - POLITICO Europe - March 28th, 2024 [March 28th, 2024]
- Taliban holds public execution for 2 men, who are killed by gunfire in a stadium as thousands watch - ABC News - February 23rd, 2024 [February 23rd, 2024]
- The Political Economy of Climate Governance in Afghanistan: An Analysis of the Context and Challenges - Middle East Institute - February 23rd, 2024 [February 23rd, 2024]
- Kentucky congressman calls for release of American detained by Taliban for more than 500 days - WLKY Louisville - February 23rd, 2024 [February 23rd, 2024]
- The Taliban have to be in the room for any meaningful talks on Afghanistan's future - The National - February 23rd, 2024 [February 23rd, 2024]
- The Taliban Refuses to Come the U.N. Conference on Afghanistan - The New York Times - February 23rd, 2024 [February 23rd, 2024]
- Taliban refuses to join U.N.-sponsored meeting on Afghanistan - NBC News - February 23rd, 2024 [February 23rd, 2024]
- Never Say Never: Learning Lessons from Afghanistan Reviews - Afghanistan - ReliefWeb - February 23rd, 2024 [February 23rd, 2024]
- Drifting With Purpose: Sports Car Enthusiasts Rally In Afghanistan - Barron's - February 23rd, 2024 [February 23rd, 2024]
- Former Ambassador Testifies on U.S. Withdrawal From Afghanistan - C-SPAN - February 23rd, 2024 [February 23rd, 2024]
- More than $400 million needed for western Afghanistan to recover from October earthquake, UN says - The Associated Press - February 23rd, 2024 [February 23rd, 2024]
- Drastic erosion of women's rights in Afghanistan continues - UN News - February 23rd, 2024 [February 23rd, 2024]
- UNHCR Regional Bureau for Asia and Pacific (RBAP): External Update: Afghanistan Situation #32, As of 1 February ... - ReliefWeb - February 23rd, 2024 [February 23rd, 2024]
- Afghanistan-Pakistan Border Clash: How the Taliban's Transnational Ambitions Threaten Pakistan - Foreign Policy - February 23rd, 2024 [February 23rd, 2024]
- Some Taliban fighters find classes, cars and city life in Kabul enticing - The Washington Post - February 23rd, 2024 [February 23rd, 2024]
- Biden privately defiant over chaotic 2021 Afghanistan withdrawal, book says - The Guardian - February 23rd, 2024 [February 23rd, 2024]
- Drifting with purpose: sports car enthusiasts rally in Afghanistan - The Mountaineer - February 23rd, 2024 [February 23rd, 2024]
- UN Doha Conference on Afghanistan Fails to Achieve Key Goals - The Diplomat - February 23rd, 2024 [February 23rd, 2024]
- Drifting with purpose: sports car enthusiasts rally in Afghanistan - El Paso Inc. - February 23rd, 2024 [February 23rd, 2024]
- Taliban Refuse to Attend UN Conference on Afghanistan - Voice of America - VOA News - February 23rd, 2024 [February 23rd, 2024]
- UN Conference on Afghanistan Begins Without Taliban - Voice of America - VOA News - February 23rd, 2024 [February 23rd, 2024]
- The Taliban carry out a double public execution at a stadium in southeastern Afghanistan - Bozeman Daily Chronicle - February 23rd, 2024 [February 23rd, 2024]
- Pakistan army kill 8 militants during a raid along the border with Afghanistan - Arab News - November 28th, 2023 [November 28th, 2023]
- Afghanistan arrests four local employees of Germany government ... - JURIST - November 28th, 2023 [November 28th, 2023]
- The Afghanistan Crisis: MOSAIC is Your Chance to Make a Difference - BCBusiness - November 28th, 2023 [November 28th, 2023]
- Afghanistan to build 285 health centers nationwide | | news-journal ... - Longview News-Journal - November 28th, 2023 [November 28th, 2023]
- Afghanistan's Fate in the Balance: China and India's Quest for ... - South Asian Voices - November 28th, 2023 [November 28th, 2023]
- Press Release - Muslim Hands - November 28th, 2023 [November 28th, 2023]
- U.S. bombs left in Afghanistan are ending up in the hands of ... - KEYE TV CBS Austin - November 28th, 2023 [November 28th, 2023]
- Shaheen: UN Using Afghanistans Seat to Pressure Kabul - TOLOnews - November 28th, 2023 [November 28th, 2023]
- Karzai emphasizes necessity of girls' and boys' education for ... - The Khaama Press News Agency - November 28th, 2023 [November 28th, 2023]
- Nearly 5,000 women killed by relatives in Afghanistan in 2022: UN ... - The Khaama Press News Agency - November 28th, 2023 [November 28th, 2023]
- The Artistry of Nashenas Speaks to the Afghanistan He Had to Leave Behind - The New York Times - November 11th, 2023 [November 11th, 2023]
- How We Made the Animated Documentary The Night Doctrine - ProPublica - November 11th, 2023 [November 11th, 2023]
- Hundreds of Airmen Will Receive New Medals for 2021 Afghanistan Evacuation - Military.com - November 11th, 2023 [November 11th, 2023]
- The crisis in Afghanistan after series of devastating earthquakes - Mercy Corps - November 11th, 2023 [November 11th, 2023]
- Information Needed from Veterans of the War in Afghanistan - Morris County, NJ - November 11th, 2023 [November 11th, 2023]
- SALUTE TO VETERANS: After Iraq and Afghanistan, Sherwood ... - Sherwood Gazette - November 11th, 2023 [November 11th, 2023]