Sher Jan Ahmadzai: US must not abandon Afghanistan – Omaha World-Herald
The writer is director of Center for Afghanistan Studies at the University Nebraska at Omaha.
The war in Afghanistan has been the longest in the history of the United States and now is inherited by President Donald Trump. So far, more than 2,000 U.S soldiers have been killed in Afghanistan and billions of dollars have been spent to help the people of Afghanistan.
The U.S. took action in Afghanistan not because the country has rare natural resources but because it was a strategic safe haven for the terrorists who planned the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks. Al-Qaida and Taliban forces, along with their backers, utilized this power vacuum in the 90s for their regional interests, with global consequences.
What goes on in Afghanistan cannot be contained within the geographical boundaries of Afghanistan. The incidents occurring there have had global implications, as demonstrated by the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan and al-Qaidas presence in Afghanistan.
Abandoning Afghanistan now would make a marked regression to pre-9/11 Afghanistan, a place of civil wars and a nest of terrorists. One might argue Afghanistan will not revert to what it was under the Taliban, but even relatively minor instability in Afghanistan could make it more attractive to the elements of global terrorism. The current instability in North Africa provides a practical illustration of the dangers in such a situation.
Indeed, Islamic State fighters are emerging in considerable numbers in the north and east of Afghanistan. Many of these Islamic State fighters are of Central Asian descent and view Afghanistan as a potential staging ground for their operations in Central Asia.
Afghanistan is located in an area with rich petro-chemical resources. These energy resources are vital not only for Russia but also for U.S. allies in Europe, plus Turkey and India. Any power vacuum or instability in Afghanistan would likely spread to the rest of Central Asia, as shown during the period of Taliban rule.
More importantly, Afghanistan is the only country in the region that is friendly toward the United States and is willing to host U.S. forces. By having a military presence in Afghanistan, the U.S. can address any potential threat emanating from that region to which it cannot respond from off-shore bases or ships in the Indian Ocean or in Turkey.
The biggest concern, then, is not just the problems in Afghanistan but that any spillover that could threaten the long-term American interests in the region, particularly trade and security interests.
Afghanistans neighbor is Iran, with which the U.S. has had a contentious relationship since 1979. It is not expected that this relationship would improve under President Trump. Trump disapproved of the 2015 nuclear agreement with Iran.
The U.S. needs a friendly country in the region to keep Iranian power in check and keep neighboring nations from slipping into an anti-U.S. sphere. Iraq under Saddam Hussein was a buffer zone between Iran and U.S. interests in the Middle East.
With Iraq unable to serve as that buffer, a strong and stable Afghanistan could counterbalance Irans expanding influence in the region.
Allowing conditions to deteriorate in Afghanistan would only further raise concern about the countrys southern neighbor, Pakistan. That country, with a population of more than 180 million, has active nuclear weapons coupled with an unstable security and political situation. Pakistans national government faces an alarming security challenge as it is unable to exert control over considerable areas of the country such as Baluchistan province.
Al-Qaida, the Haqqani network and the Taliban have safe havens in Pakistans tribal areas. Gen. John Nicholson, the U.S. commander in Afghanistan, told the Senate Armed Services Committee in January that the Talibans leaders can still repair to their safe havens in the tribal areas of neighboring Pakistan. They enjoy protection from the criminal Haqqani network in places such as Quetta (a Pakistani city), out of the reach of major U.S. combat power.
Any further instability in Pakistan would threaten India, which Pakistan regards as its archenemy, along with U.S. security interests in South Asia.
History in recent decades has proved that abandoning Afghanistan is in the interest of no one. As a country with strategic geopolitical importance, Afghanistan should not be left alone where it can easily once again become an attractive place for those who threaten global peace, security and regional prosperity.
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Sher Jan Ahmadzai: US must not abandon Afghanistan - Omaha World-Herald
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