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LONG, WINDY, BUMPY ROAD: Though hailed as a historic breakthrough, the Agreement for Bringing Peace to Afghanistan signed by the U.S. and Taliban leaders in Doha Saturday is a basically an agreement to try to reach a peace deal in the future and gives both sides plenty of room to wriggle out of it.

This is going to be a long, windy, bumpy road. There will be ups and downs and we'll stop and start, Defense Secretary Mark Esper told reporters yesterday That's going to be the nature of this over the next days, weeks and months.

Here are five things to keep in mind about the plan.

FOR NOW, THE US GAVE UP NOTHING: While on the surface it appears the Taliban achieved its primary goal the complete withdrawal of all foreign forces within 14 months the U.S. has agreed only to do what it planned to do anyway, with or without an agreement. We are going to show good faith and begin withdrawing our troops, and we can stop that at any moment, said Esper. What we'll do is we'll go to 8,600 and we're going to stop, and we'll assess the situation.

Thats the number of American troops U.S. commanders have said are needed to carry out the current advise and assist and counterterrorism missions. The U.S. has retained the option to keep those troops in Afghanistan if theres no progress toward peace. We can pause it based on, again, changing circumstances, Esper said.

FOR NOW, THE TALIBAN GAVE UP NOTHING: While the seven-day reduction of violence agreement was a precondition for signing the withdrawal agreement, the Taliban have made it clear they do not believe it applies to its war against Afghan government forces, and at any rate it has expired.

The reduction in violence... has ended now and our operations will continue as normal," Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid told the French news agency AFP. That the Taliban plans to continue its strategy of fighting while negotiating came as a motorcycle bomb attack that killed three people is eastern Afghanistan. Whether the Taliban or some other group was responsible for the attack was unclear.

THE LEVEL OF VIOLENCE IS IN THE EYE OF THE BEHOLDER: The peace agreement not only contains no provisions for a peace, beyond intra-Afghan negotiations to begin next week in Oslo, it also does not include a truce or ceasefire.

I would caution everybody, to think that there's going to be an absolute cessation of violence in Afghanistan, that is probably not going to happen, admitted Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Mark Milley at yesterday's Pentagon briefing. It's probably not going to go to zero.

Regarding yesterdays attack, Milley underscored the subjective nature of determining if violence is Taliban-related. We don't know exactly who did that yet.

ALL WE ARE SAYING IS GIVE PEACE A CHANCE: Our expectation is that the reduction in violence will continue, it would taper off until we got intra-Afghan negotiations, where it would ultimately consummate in a cease-fire, if you will, Esper said.

A negotiated political settlement is the only responsible way to end the war in Afghanistan, and this was an important step, said Milley. This agreement provides the best hope for a peaceful future for the people of Afghanistan.

Just watch what really happens. Pay less attention to statements, pay less attention to things people say. Watch what happens on the ground, said Secretary of State Mike Pompeo on Fox news. Theres been a lot of work done at detailed levels about how this will proceed. So far, so good. Were just hours into this.

WHATEVER HAPPENS, TRUMP IS OVER AFGHANISTAN: Asked at the White House what would happen if the peace talks failed to take place and violence flared anew, President Trump said, Well, we're going to find out.

But we're getting out. We want to get out, he said. We had good meetings with the Taliban. And we are going to be leaving, and we're going to be bringing our soldiers back home. We've been there for almost 20 years. It's a long time. We've done a great job in terms of getting rid of terrorists. Now it's up to other countries to get rid of those terrorists.

Good Tuesday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyres Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by Susan Katz Keating (@SKatzKeating). Email here with tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. Sign up or read current and back issues at DailyonDefense.com. If signing up doesnt work, shoot us an email and well add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter: @dailyondefense.

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HAPPENING TODAY THE BEGINNING OF BUDGETPALOOZA: As you know, we have a busy week here at the Pentagon, said Defense Secretary Mark Esper DoD leadership will be testifying in 20 hearings before Congress in the coming days as we continue to brief the Hill on the department's F.Y. '21 budget request.

See our calendar below for the schedule of hearings this week.

ALSO TODAY: Esper welcomes Estonian Defense Minister Juri Luik to the Pentagon at 1 p.m. on the steps of the River Entrance. Esper and Luik will brief reporters in the Pentagon briefing room a approximately 2 p.m. Steamed live at https://www.defense.gov/Watch/Live-Events

NEW AF CHIEF: Air Force Gen. Charles Q. Brown Jr. has been nominated to be the next chief of staff of the Air Force, when current chief David Goldfein retires this year. Brown is currently commander of Pacific Air Forces; air component commander for U.S. Indo-Pacific Command; and executive director, Pacific Air Combat Operations Staff, Joint Base Pearl Harbor-Hickam, Hawaii.

If confirmed, Brown will be the first African American to serve as a service chief. In 1989, Army Gen. Colin Powell became the first African American chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.

NO TEARS FOR DAVE: Goldfein, you may recall, was the pick of former Defense Secretary Jim Mattis to succeed Marine Gen. Joseph Dunford as the next chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, but President Trump preferred Army Gen. Mark Milley.

Still, Goldfein retires as the Air Forces top officer after a distinguished 37 year career, which included flying F-16s and F-117s in combat missions in operations Desert Shield, Desert Storm, Allied Force and Enduring Freedom.

Goldfein also has the distinction of being one of two U.S. pilots shot down over Serbia in 1999, when a surface-to-air missile hit his F-16.

DRIP, DRIP, DRIP: Every couple of days the U.S. Africa Command drops another press release that begins with the same boilerplate language, In coordination with the Federal Government of Somalia, U.S. Africa Command conducted airstrikes targeting al-Shabaab terrorists

The latest release announced that two airstrikes targeting al-Shabaab killed one and wounded two terrorists. In drone strikes that kill one or two enemy fighters at a time, the U.S. continues a low-intensity war against the group that is an offshoot of al Qaeda.

US Africa Command is focused on support to the Federal Government of Somalia and helping them end al-Shabaabs brutal ambitions and treatment of the Somali people, said U.S. Army Maj. Gen. Bill Gayler, director of operations, U.S. Africa Command.

According to a tally of AFRICOM releases from so far this year, the U.S. has killed 17 al-Shabaab fighters in 15 strikes, including a senior al-Shabaab leader and his wife who were said to have been behind the Jan. 15 attack on Manda Bay, that killed one U.S. soldier and two American contractors.

CORONAVIRUS CONCERNS: Defense Secretary Esper says the threat of infection from the corona virus has been the focus of a high-level daily working group that includes senior Pentagon officials, members of the Joint Staff, and combatant commanders around the world.

At the end of last week, I did a deep dive with DOD civilian and military leadership, including all the service secretaries, the COCOM commanders to ensure the entire department is equipped for all scenarios: short and long-term, domestic and international, Esper said. Commanders of individually affected geographic commands have all the authority they need and we'll provide specific guidance to their troops as the situation continues to evolve.

EXERCISES MOSTLY UNAFFECTED: Right now, the overall broad impact to the uniformed U.S. military is very, very minimal, said Joint Chiefs Chairman Milley. It's not to say it's zero, but it's very, very minimal. Very few cases have been diagnosed, et cetera.

Milley noted that while a command post exercise was postponed in Korea, other exercises in Asia and Europe are going on as planned.

We're taking a look at some other exercises to see if they need to be modified or changed, he said. We're looking at the exercises, but right now we don't see any significant negative impact on that.

US-ISRAELI EXERCISE: The U.S. European Command announced today that Juniper Cobra, a combined missile defense exercise with the Israel Defense Forces began today, and will run through March 13.

Approximately 2,500 U.S. personnel and 1,000 IDF personnel will participate in the long-planned exercise, which EUCOM says is driven by overall dynamics in the Middle East, but is not a response to any recent developments or specific real-world events.

IRAN TO IRAQ TRANSMISSION: The Washington-based Institute for the Study of War says Irans inability to contain the coronavirus has allowed the disease to spread to Iraq, whose health institutions are poorly equipped to manage the potential pandemic.

Iraq is vulnerable due to the hundreds of thousands of internally displaced persons, congested anti-government demonstrations, and routine pilgrimages by religious observers across the region, particularly from Iran, says the ISWs latest situation report. Failure to contain the virus could lead to greater anti-Iranian sentiment among Iraqis. Iraq imports billions of dollars in cross border trade from Iran per year. Restricted movement will lead to increased prices on basic necessities.

INDUSTRY WATCH: BAE Systems has been awarded a five-year $188.2 million contract to provide the Navys AEGIS Technical Representative office with critical large-scale system engineering, integration, and testing expertise for the AEGIS weapons and combat systems aboard U.S. Navy surface combatant ships, the company said on Monday.

BAE Systems personnel have worked side-by-side with Navy sailors and civilians for nearly 40 years to strengthen and modernize the fleet of AEGIS-equipped surface ships, said Mark Keeler, vice president and general manager of BAE Systems Integrated Defense Solutions business.

Washington Examiner: Peace with the Taliban will be a 'bumpy road,' defense chiefs say

Washington Examiner: A war would trigger devastating consequences: Turkey and Russia try to avoid clash as Erdogan hammers Assad

Wall Street Journal: White House Drops Nominee Who Questioned Ukraine Aid Suspension

AP: Kim Watches N Korea Military Drill Alongside Masked Officers

AP: North Korean swagger may conceal brewing virus disaster

Military Times: Communities Fighting Transfers Of Coronavirus Patients From Military Installations

Breaking Defense: Hypersonic Missiles: Plethora Of Boost-Glide & Cruise

Defense News: Pentagon Launches Hypersonic Industrial Base Study

USNI News: CNO Gilday Defends 36-Month Carrier Cycle, Says Navy Has Never Missed A Deployment

USNI News: U.S. Issues Formal Protest To China Over P-8A Lasing Incident In Philippine Sea

Military Times: U.S. Loses Drone Over Niger

Marine Corps News: Commander Of Texas-Based Marine Reserve Aerial Refueling Squadron Fired

Washington Examiner: Opinion: The Taliban shows Trump whos really boss

Washington Post: Michle Flournoy and Stephen J. Hadley: The U.S. deal with the Taliban is an important rst step

TUESDAY | MARCH 3

8 a.m. 900 South Orme St., Arl. Brig. Gen. Stephen Michael, deputy commander of the Army Combined Arms Center for Training, delivers keynote address at the National Defense Industrial Association Human Systems Conference. https://www.ndia.org/events

8 a.m. 1200 South Hayes St., Arl. The RAND Corporation hosts Defense Department State-of-the-Science meeting on blast injury research, with Raj Gupta, acting director of the Defense Department's Blast Injury Research Coordinating Office https://www.rand.org/events/2020/03/03.html

9:30 a.m. 1919 Connecticut Ave. N.W. President Trump; Rep. Stephanie Murphy, D-Fla.; Rep. John Katko, R-N.Y.; and former Secretary of State Colin Powell, former chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, participate in a general session of the National Association of Counties 2020 Legislative Conference. https://www.naco.org

10:30 a.m. 2118 Rayburn House Armed Services Committee hearing: The Fiscal Year 2021 National Defense Authorization Budget Request for the Department of the Army, with testimony from Army Secretary Ryan McCarthy and Army Chief of Staff Gen. James McConville. https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings

12 p.m. Hudson Institute discussion on "Dialogues on American and Foreign Policy and World Affairs," focusing on "China, the broader American strategy in the Indo-Pacific region, and other challenges facing the U.S. across the globe, with former Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs Kurt Campbell; Dan McKivergan, vice president of government relations at Hudson; and Walter Russell Mead, fellow in strategy and statesmanship at Hudson http://www.hudson.org

1 p.m. Pentagon Briefing Room 2D972 Defense Secretary Mark Esper welcomes Estonian Defense Minister Juri Luik to the Pentagon on the steps of the River Entrance. The secretary and Minister Luik also brief the press at approximately 2 p.m. Streamed live at

2 p.m. 2118 Rayburn House Armed Services Subcommittee on Readiness hearing: The Fiscal Year 2021 Air Force and Space Force Readiness Posture, with testimony from Shon Manasco, acting undersecretary of the Air Force; Gen. Stephen Wilson, Air Force vice chief of staff; and Lt. Gen. David Thompson, vice commander, U.S. Space Force. https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings

2:30 p.m. 2212 Rayburn House Armed Services Subcommittee on Strategic Forces hearing: The Fiscal Year 2021 Budget Request for Nuclear Forces and Atomic Energy Defense Activities, with testimony from Lisa Gordon-Hagerty, administrator, National Nuclear Security Administration; Victorino Mercado, performing the duties of assistant secretary of defense for strategy, plans, and capabilities; Vice Adm. Johnny Wolfe, Navy director, Strategic Systems Programs; Air Force Lt. Gen. Richard Clark, deputy chief of staff for strategic deterrence and nuclear integration; and Allison Bawden, director, natural resources and environment team, Government Accountability Office. https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings

2:30 p.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. N.W. Woodrow Wilson Center Africa Program discussion on "The Trump Administration and U.S. Africa Policy: What has been Accomplished and What Lies Ahead?" with Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs Tibor Nagy; and Monde Muyangwa, director of the WWC Africa Program. https://www.wilsoncenter.org/event

3 p.m. H-140 Capitol House Appropriations Subcommittee on Defense hearing on National Guard and Reserve FY 2021 budget request, with Gen. Joseph Lengyel, Chief of the National Guard Bureau; Lt. Gen. David Bellon, commander, Marine Forces Reserve; Lt. Gen. Charles Luckey, chief of the Army Reserve; Vice Adm. Luke McCollum, chief of the Navy Reserve; and Lt. Gen. Richard Scobee, chief of the Air Force Reserve. https://appropriations.house.gov/events

WEDNESDAY | MARCH 4

8 a.m. 900 South Orme St., Arl. Army Col. Michael McGurk, director of research and analysis at the Center for Initial Military Training Directorate, delivers keynote address at the National Defense Industrial Association Human Systems Conference https://www.ndia.org/events

9 a.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. N.W. McAleese Defense Programs Conference, with national security adviser Robert OBrien; Ellen Lord, undersecretary of defense for acquisition and sustainment; Michael Griffin, undersecretary of defense for research and engineering; Army Secretary Ryan McCarthy, and more than a dozen others. https://www.mcaleese.com/events

10 a.m. 2118 Rayburn House Armed Services Committee hearing: The Fiscal Year 2021 National Defense Authorization Budget Request for the Department of the Air Force, with testimony from Air Force Secretary Barbara Barrett; Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. David Goldfein; Gen. John Raymond, chief of space operations, U.S. Space Force. https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings

11 a.m. H-140 Capitol House Appropriations Subcommittee on Defense hearing on U.S. Navy/Marine Corps FY 2021 budget request, with Marine Corps Commandant Gen. David Berger; Chief of Naval Operations Adm. Michael Gilday; and Thomas Modly, acting secretary of the Navy. https://appropriations.house.gov/events

12 p.m. 1957 E St. N.W. George Washington University Elliott School of International Affairs holds a film screening and discussion on "The Barbed Wire Fence," focusing on the Korean Demilitarized Zone, with filmmaker Dai Sil Kim-Gibson; and Young-Key Kim-Renaud, senior adviser in the GWU Institute for Korean Studies https://elliott.gwu.edu/event-calendar

2:30 p.m. 2212 Rayburn House Armed Services Subcommittee on Intelligence and Emerging Threats and Capabilities hearing: The Fiscal Year 2021 Budget Request for U.S. Cyber Command and Operations in Cyberspace, with testimony from Kenneth Rapuano, assistant secretary of defense for homeland defense and global security; and U.S. Cyber Commander and National Security Agency Director Army Gen. Paul Nakasone. https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings

2:30 p.m. 1030 15th St. N.W. Center for the National Interest and the Eurasia Center debate: Why should the US care about Ukraine? with Will Ruger, vice president for research and policy at the Charles Koch Institute; and Alina Polyakova, president & CEO of the Center for European Policy Analysis. The moderators are Jacob Heilbrunn, editor of The National Interest; and Melinda Haring, deputy director of the Eurasia Center. Register at : https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event

3 p.m. H-140 Capitol House Appropriations Subcommittee on Defense hearing on U.S. Space Force organizational plan, with Maj. Gen. Clinton Crosier, director, space force planning, Office of the Chief of Space Operations; and Lt. Gen. David Thompson, vice commander, U.S. Space Force. https://appropriations.house.gov/events/hearings

9:30 p.m. ET Hoover Institution, Stanford, Ca. Intelligence Squared U.S. debates "The Maximum Pressure Campaign Against Iran Is Working, with former national security adviser retired Lt. Gen. H. R. McMaster and Military Historian Victor Davis Hanson arguing for the proposition and Martha Crenshaw, terrorism studies expert and Abbas Milani of the Iran Democracy Project arguing against. Streamed live at https://www.intelligencesquaredus.org/debates

THURSDAY | MARCH 5

8 a.m. 2425 Wilson Blvd., Arl. Association of the U.S. Army Hot Topics Forum on "Army Space and AMD (Air and Missile Defense): Protection of the U.S. Homeland, Forces Abroad, Allies and Partners, with Army Lt. Gen. James Dickinson, deputy commander of the U.S. Space Command; and Navy Vice Adm. Jon Hill, director of the U.S. Missile Defense Agency. https://www.ausa.org/events/amd-hot-topic

9 a.m. 2359 Rayburn House Appropriations Subcommittee on Defense hearing on Defense Health Program, with Army Surgeon General Lt. Gen. R. Scott Dingle; Navy Surgeon General Rear Adm. Bruce Gillingham; Air Force Surgeon General Lt. Gen. Dorothy Hogg, Thomas McCaffery, assistant secretary of defense for health affairs; Lt. Gen. Ronald Place, director, Defense Health Agency; and Bill Tinston, program executive officer, Defense Healthcare Management Systems https://appropriations.house.gov/events/hearings

9:30 a.m. 2212 Rayburn House Armed Services Subcommittee on Tactical Air and Land Forces Hearing: The Fiscal Year 2021 Army and Marine Corps Ground Modernization Programs, with testimony from Bruce Jette, assistant secretary of the army for acquisition, logistics and technology; Gen. John Murray, commanding general, Army Futures Command; Lt. Gen. Eric Smith, commanding general, Marine Corps Combat Development Command; and James Geurts, assistant secretary of the navy for research, development, and acquisition https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings

3 p.m. 1030 15th St. N.W. Atlantic Council discussion with British Defense Secretary Ben Wallace on "The Next Era of UK Defense." https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event

6 p.m. 600 New Jersey Ave. N.W. Georgetown University Law Center discussion: "America's Misadventure With Torture: New Revelations and Hard Lessons, with former UN Special Rapporteur on Torture Juan Mendez; Alka Pradhan, human rights counsel to Guantanamo Military Commissions; former Military Commissions Chief Investigator Mark Fallon; Susan Brandon, former research director of the High-Value Detainee Interrogation Group; Gregg Bloche, professor at Georgetown Law; David Luban, professor at Georgetown Law; and Steven Barela, senior fellow at the University of Geneva. https://www.law.georgetown.edu/news

This is going to be a long, windy, bumpy road. There will be ups and downs and we'll stop and start. That's going to be the nature of this over the next days, weeks and months. And so I'm not going to get too excited about what happens at the moment. We're just going to deal with each situation as it arises and make sure we stay focused on the mission.

Defense Secretary Mark Esper, speaking to reporters at the Pentagon

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